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This project is co-funded by the European Union within the 7th Frame Programme. Grant Agreement n°608622. The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Investment guide for forest biomass based cogeneration and district heating in Slovenia
[email protected] ; [email protected]
Dr Calliope Panoutsou & Asha Singh; Imperial College London Dr Nike Krajnc; Slovenian Forest Institute
Purpose
To develop an Investment Guide on biomass in Slovenia with
the use of indigenous forest biomass. The guide covers two
options:
– biomass cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) plants, and
– district heating (DH) systems with biomass for a small town
(covering mainly public buildings).
Both options tie well with national action plans, forest
biomass availability and supply infrastructures in the country.
Woody biomass resources currently
sold in Slovenian market
Wood chips producers in Slovenia (SFI, 2015)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Production
Import
Export
Wood pellet production nad trade in Slovenia (SORS, SFI, 2016)
Wood chips
The production of wood chips in Slovenia has almost tripled during the last ten years with figures rising from 460,000 loose m3 in 2007 to 850,000 loose m3 in 2012 and more than 1.500.000 loose m3 in 2014. The respective numbers of wood chippers increased from 62 (2007) to 122 (2012) and 187 (2015). Data collection for the reported figures has taken place in the form of three surveys combining phone and interview methods. The raw material used for wood chips production is mostly low quality wood not used by the industry, wood removals and wood residues from wood processing industry.
Detailed information can be found on:
www.gozdis.si
Wood pellets
Based on data from SFI about wood pellet production there are 20
producers with a total annual production of around 120.000
tonnes (the biggest produce 65.000 t per year, all the other are
small with the majority producing less than 5.000 t per year).
Almost 80 % of the indigenous pellets are exported while the
country imports large amount of pellets from Romania (amounting
almost to 50% share), Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, a result of
high demand and cheaper prices from these countries.
Data about Slovenian pellet producers can be found on:
www.s4q.si
Current Use of forest biomass in Slovenia
0,000
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1 000,000
1 200,000
1 400,000
1 600,000
1 800,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
10
00
t
Power plants
CHP
DHS
Industry
Households
Source: SORS, 2016
Forest biomass types used in Slovenia
The most commonly used form of wood fuels is firewood, use of wood chips and pellets is increasing in the last decade.
Recent work from SFI (SORS, 2016) reports that the use of biomass in households is slightly increasing between years with households consumption is 1,137,000 tons of wood fuels, which is dominated by firewood (1.1 million tons). In years 2009 and 2010 Slovenian households used around 1.5 million m3 of roundwood (with bark) for energy production. According to National renewable energy action plan (NREAP) supply with domestic biomass will increase among the years. The amount of wood biomass is set to 1,302,000 tons for year 2015 and to 1,338,00 tons for 2020 (Beurskens and Hekkenberg, 2011).
In October 2015 study about state of the art of wood chips production was performed. In our database we have data about 195 wood chippers all around Slovenia, mainly middle size chippers (capacity from 5 to 50 loose m3/hour) are used. Their production was estimated to more than 1.500.000 loose m3 of wood chips. It is estimated that in Slovenia the number of wood chippers is higher, but their production is negligible and they are mainly used for production of wood fuel for domestic use.
Availability of forest biomass
estimated by S2Biom
Map of actual market quantities of lower quality wood (in tones of absolute dry matter per hectare of forest per year, SFI, 2016).
Which forest biomass types are included?
Forest biomass in this guide includes:
i) primary forestry production from thinnings & final fellings,
stem and crown biomass from early thinnings,
ii) primary forest residues from logging residues and stumps
from final fellings,
iii) secondary forest residues from wood industries (sawmill
and other wood processing).
Forest biomass
sustainable
potentials
– Total estimated sustainable potential
can reach up to 5.3m dry tonnes/ year
– Primary forestry production is
estimated at 4.23m dry tonnes/ year
– Primary forest residues are estimated
at 0.35m dry tonnes/ year
– Secondary forest residues are
estimated at 0.73m dry tonnes/ year
Estimated potential in Slovenian regions
Wood chipper locations; source SFI
Forest biomass availability in Slovenian
regions by 2020 (‘000 dry tonnes/ year)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Pomurska
Podravska
Koroška
Savinjska
Zasavska
Posavska
Jugovzhod Slovenija
Primorsko-notranjska
Osrednjeslovenska
Gorenjska
Goriška
Obalno-kraška
Stemwood from final fellings nc Stemwood from final fellings c
Stemwood from thinnings nc Stemwood from thinnings c
Logging residues from final fellings nc Logging residues from final fellings c
Logging residues from thinnings nc Logging residues from thinnings c
Stemwood from final fellings nc
31%
Stemwood from final fellings c
38%
Stemwood from
thinnings nc 13%
Stemwood from
thinnings c 10%
Logging residues from final fellings c
4%
Pomurska 5% Podravska
9%
Koroška 7%
Savinjska 12%
Zasavska 2%
Posavska 4% Jugovzhod
Slovenija 19%
Primorsko-notranjska
6%
Osrednjeslovenska 11%
Gorenjska 9%
Goriška 10%
Obalno-kraška
6%
c: conifers; nc: non conifer species
Costs* and market prices of feedstocks (€/t dry matter; including VAT)
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00Pomurska
Podravska
Koroška
Savinjska
Zasavska
Posavska
Jugovzhod Slovenija
Primorsko-notranjska
Osrednjeslovenska
Gorenjska
Goriška
Obalno-kraška
Stemwood from final fellings nc Stemwood from final fellings c Stemwood from thinnings nc
Stemwood from thinnings c Logging residues from final fellings nc Logging residues from final fellings c
Logging residues from thinnings nc Logging residues from thinnings c
Type Price (€/t dry matter)
including VAT
Wood chips 84- 94
Pellets loose 220 – 250
Pellets packed 216 – 228
* Costs in figure refer to roadside production costs
Prices of wood fuels in last 5 years
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
2011-II 2012-I 2012-II 2013-I 2013-II 2014-I 2014-II 2015-I 2015-II 2016-I 2016-II
Cen
a (€
/MW
h z
DD
V)
Pellets Briquettes
Wood chips Logs
Heating oil
Infrastructure & contracts
Locations of existing CHP and DH plants in Slovenia (Source: SFI and EnGIS)
Analysis of biomass supply infrastructure
While conventional fossil fuels are commodities with well-established supply, biomass fuels have not yet attained similar status. The establishment of guaranteed supply is a key area for potential plant owner / operator, with significant risks. In the biomass industry, two approaches have commonly been used for procuring biomass feedstocks for plant that do not use residues generated on-site: • Plant operators contract directly with independent biomass fuel suppliers. • Plant operators contract with independent fuel brokers who agree to provide
biomass fuel at set terms and to take on the risks of negotiating with independent suppliers.
Biomass supply contracts: terms & conditions
Biomass delivery contracts typically include the following terms and conditions: • Term of contract and notice of termination. • Agreed quantity of biomass, including provisions in the event of
increase/decrease in the consumption of biomass, non-delivery due to decrease in harvested yield etc.
• Terms of delivery, including type of biomass fuel, water content, and other specifications.
• Basic price and the regulation of price in proportion to water content and time of delivery.
• Provisions concerning the regulation of the basic price. • Provisions concerning arbitration.
Which value chains have high
resource and energy efficiency?
Matching regional biomass to conversion
technologies
In S2BIOM a database for standardised biomass characterisation was developed and populated for all lignocellulosic biomass types covered in the project. This database was intended to be used to determine, if certain biomass types can be used as feedstocks for specific conversion technologies. For this purpose an extensive characterisation for the conversion technologies was also made with regard to minimal biomass characteristics requirements. The biomass characteristics and the conversion technology requirement characteristics were then used to develop the biomass matching tool (Bio2Match) which is accessible via the project website.
More detailed information can be viewed & downloaded
http://s2biom.alterra.wur.nl/web/guest/bio2match
Feasibility of forest biomass CHP
Map of marketable quantities of lower quality roundwood (SFI, 2016)
Outline of key cost parameters
Nominal capacity (MWel) 2 5 10 25
CONSTRUCTION
land cost (Euro) 300,000 400,000 500,000 700,000
environment, planning, legal (Euro) 10,000 10,000 15,000 15,000
plant & equipment (Euro) (eligible for grant aid) 5,000,000 12,500,000 24,000,000 63,000,000
construction, commissioning (Euro) (eligible for grant aid) 250,000 300,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
CAPITAL COST 5,560,000 13,210,000 25,515,000 64,715,000
OVERHAUL & MAINTENANCE
annual cost (Euro) (2.5% of plant & equipment) 125,000 312,500 600,000 1,575,000
OPERATION
no of operators 2 3 3 5
average cost of operators including overheads (Euro) 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000
operator cost 70,000 105,000 105,000 175,000
FEEDSTOCKS / DISPOSAL
Operating hours per year 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000
Wood fuel consumption (oven dry tonnes per hour) 1.6 4.0 8.2 20.5
Wood fuel consumption (oven dry tonnes per year) 12,800 32,000 65,600 164,000
Wood fuel cost (Euro per oven dry tonne delivered) 82 82 82 82
Wood fuel cost (Euro total) 1,049,600 2,624,000 5,379,200 13,448,000
CONVERSION PLANT IRR 10% 10% 10% 10%
HEAT REVENUES
Selling price of electricity (euro/ MWh el) 45.8 42.6 40.4 41.6
Annual electricity production (MWh el) 12,800 32,000 64,000 160,000
Present value of electricity sales 4,121,431 9,607,504 18,247,635 46,942,429
Annual heat production (MWh th) 22,400 55,040 110,080 275,200
Selling price of heat (euro/ MWh th) 50 50 50 50
Present value of heat sales 7,721,532 19,339,380 38,678,760 96,696,901
Electricity selling prices for different wood price variations
(60- 100 €/tonne), heat selling price: 50 €/MWh and plant IRR:10%
26,63
30,71
34,78
38,87
42,95
47,03
51,11
55,2
59,3
24,62
28,7
32,79
36,87
40,95
45,03
49,11
53,19
57,27
22,26
26,35
30,43
34,51
38,59
42,67
46,75
50,84
54,92
23,65
27,73
31,81
35,9
39,97
44,06
48,14
52,22
56,3
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
2MW 5MW 10 MW 25 MW
Impact of electricity selling price to
conversion plant IRR
15,69
27,02
44,59
14,76
25,68
42,58
13,61
24,18
40,55
14,37
25,1
41,7
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 5 10
2MW 5MW 10 MW 25 MW
Feasibility of forest biomass for
district heating
Schematic flow of lower quality wood in Slovenia
Heat selling prices in Slovenia (€/MWth; Slovenian Ministry for Infrastructure, 2016)
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
20
04
M0
1
20
04
M0
4
20
04
M0
7
20
04
M1
0
20
05
M0
1
20
05
M0
4
20
05
M0
7
20
05
M1
0
20
06
M0
1
20
06
M0
4
20
06
M0
7
20
06
M1
0
20
07
M0
1
20
07
M0
4
20
07
M0
7
20
07
M1
0
20
08
M0
1
20
08
M0
4
20
08
M0
7
20
08
M1
0
20
09
M0
1
20
09
M0
4
20
09
M0
7
20
09
M1
0
20
10
M0
1
20
10
M0
4
20
10
M0
7
20
10
M1
0
20
11
M0
1
20
11
M0
4
20
11
M0
7
20
11
M1
0
20
12
M0
1
20
12
M0
4
20
12
M0
7
20
12
M1
0
20
13
M0
1
20
13
M0
4
20
13
M0
7
20
13
M1
0
20
14
M0
1
20
14
M0
4
20
14
M0
7
20
14
M1
0
20
15
M0
1
20
15
M0
4
20
15
M0
7
20
15
M1
0
SLOVENIJA Ljubljana Maribor Kranj Velenje Celje Trbovlje Jesenice Ravne
Outline of key cost parameters
Nominal capacity (MWth) 2MWth new 2 MWth
extension 5MWth new
5 MWth
extension
CONSTRUCTION
land cost (Euro) 300,000 - 400,000 -
environment, planning, legal (Euro) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
plant & equipment (Euro) (eligible for grant aid) 1,100,000 1,100,000 2,750,000 2,750,000
construction, commissioning (Euro) (eligible for grant aid) 250,000 300,000
CAPITAL COST 1,660,000 1,110,000 3,460,000 2,760,000
OVERHAUL & MAINTENANCE
annual cost (Euro) (2.5% of plant & equipment) 27,500 27,500 68,750 68,750
OPERATION
no of operators 2 0 2 0
average cost of operators including overheads (Euro) 35,000 0 35,000 0
operator cost 70,000 0 70,000 0
FEEDSTOCKS / DISPOSAL
Operating hours per year
Wood fuel consumption (oven dry tonnes per hour) 1 1 2 2
Wood fuel consumption (oven dry tonnes per year) 3,008 3,008 7,519 7,519
Wood fuel cost (Euro per oven dry tonne delivered) 82 82 78 78
Wood fuel cost (Euro total) 246,615 246,615 586,466 586,466
CONVERSION PLANT IRR 10% 10% 10% 10%
HEAT REVENUES
Selling price of heat (euro/ MWh th) 54.043 45.564 49.713 45.396
Present value of heat sales 3,041,961 2,564,688 6,995,545 6,388,107
Heat price variations (€/MWth) for the district
heating plants in Slovenia and the respective
cities in 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SLOVENIJA
Ljubljana
Maribor
Kranj
Velenje
Celje
Trbovlje
Jesenice
Ravne
Heat selling prices for different forest biomass prices
(60- 100 €/tonne) and plant IRR 10%
47,43
48,93
50,43
51,94
53,44
54,95
56,45
57,95 59,46
38,95
40,45
41,95
43,46
44,96
46,46
47,97
49,47
50,98
43,13
44,64
46,14
47,64
49,15
50,65
52,15
53,65
55,16
38,82
40,32
41,82
43,33
44,83
46,33
47,84
49,34
50,85
35
40
45
50
55
60
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
2MWth new 2 MWth extension 5MWth new 5 MWth extension
Impact of heat selling price to conversion
plant IRR
31,54
34,33
40,11
45,57
54,04
30,64
32,46
36,28
39,91
45,56
30,78 30,79 30,81 30,82 30,83 30,32
32,21
36,1
39,73
45,38
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
-10 -5 1 5 10
2MWth new 2 MWth extension 5MWth new 5 MWth extension
Overview of impact indicators
Output service quality
The output service quality presented in this slide in euros (€) indicates the economic value of the outputs in relation to the dry biomass inputs. The indicator is calculated as follows: economic value of the outputs (€/GJ x GJ energy carriers + €/ton x ton materials) – economic value of the inputs (excl. the biomass) (€/GJ x GJ energy carriers + €/ton x ton materials).
0 500 000 1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000
2MWth
5MWth
0 5 000 000 10 000 000 15 000 000 20 000 000 25 000 000 30 000 000 35 000 000
2 MW el
5 MW el
10 MW el
25 MW el
District heating plants
CHP plants
Levelised life cycle costs
The indicator is expressed in €. It measures value across the longer term, showing projected life-cycle costs
CHP plants
District heating plants
0 500 000 1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000
2MWth
5MWth
0 10 000 00020 000 00030 000 00040 000 00050 000 00060 000 000
2 MW el
5 MW el
10 MW el
25 MW el
Direct jobs
The following value chain steps require employment that is included in the measurement of direct jobs created: • bioenergy feedstock production; • biomass transportation; • biomass conversion and processing; • manufacturing of equipment; • installation of conversion plants and
other equipment; • operation and maintenance of
conversion plants and other equipment
• distribution and sales.
The indicator is expressed here in number of full-time jobs per value chain
CHP plants
District heating plants
Further reading – pilot project: DH in Maribor
Aim of Pilot project
• Specify the availability of wood biomass potential and amount of wood biomass available depending on required quality (moisture, type of wood – deciduous/coniferous, …);
• Figure out whether there is enough available feedstock in the nearby forests – distance to feedstock with various forms of ownership (state or private forests) – 5 scenarious were made;
• Prepare recommendations for the storage of wood biomass as roundwood;
• Analyze the production cost of wood chips;
• Present the idea to decision makers In local community, Ministry of environment and to investor.
Study is available on: www.s2biom.eu
Further reading
• www.s2biom.eu
• http://www.s2biom.eu/en/publications-reports/s2biom.html
• http://s2biom.alterra.wur.nl/web/guest/biomass-characteristics
• http://s2biom.alterra.wur.nl/web/guest/country-downloads
• TRIPLAT, Matevž, PRISLAN, Peter, KRAJNC, Nike. Decision-making tool for cost-efficient and environmentally friendly wood mobilisation. South-east European forestry, ISSN 1847- 6481, 2015, vol. 6, no. 2, str. 179-190, ilustr. http://www.seefor.eu/vol-6-no2-triplatet- al-decision-making-tool.html, http://dx.doi.org/10.15177/seefor.15-16, doi: 10.15177/seefor.15-16.
• ŠČAP, Špela, TRIPLAT, Matevž, PIŠKUR, Mitja, KRAJNC, Nike. Metodologija za ocene potencialov lesa v Sloveniji = The methodology for wood potential assessment in Slovenia. Acta silvae et ligni, ISSN 2335-3112. [Tiskana izd.], 2014, [Št.] 105, str. 27-40, ilustr. http://dx.doi.org/10.20315/ASetL.105.3,
• http://eprints.gozdis.si/id/eprint/1609, doi: 10.20315/ASetL.105.3 • LOPEZ, Ignacio, KRAJNC, Nike, TRIPLAT, Matevž. Development of a geo-information system for
potential forestry biomass management : setting up of integrated strategies for the development of renewable energies : final reports of pilot actions : pilot action 1.2. [S. l.: s. n.], 2014. ilustr.
• http://proforbiomed.eu/sites/default/files/1.2%20-%20Biomass%20potentials.pdf
This project is co-funded by the European Union within the 7th Frame Programme. Grant Agreement n°608622. The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Project coordinator
Scientific coordinator
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