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Investigating Land Use Regulation and Transportation Policy with the San Diego PECAS Model. P roduction E xchange C onsumption A llocation S ystem. Goods, Services, Labour and Space. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Producing Sectors. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Economic Flows. $. $. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Investigating Land Use Regulation and Transportation Policy with the
San Diego PECAS ModelDimantha I De Silva HBA Specto Incorporated
Daniel Flyte San Diego Association of GovernmentsMathew Keating
John Douglas Hunt HBA / University of Calgary
John E Abraham HBA Specto Incorporated
P roduction
E xchange
C onsumption
A llocation
S ystem
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Pro
du
cin
g S
ec
tors
Goods, Services, Labour and SpaceC
on
su
min
g S
ect
ors
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Ec
on
om
ic F
low
s
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$ $$ $
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$ $ $
Pro
du
cin
g S
ec
tors
Goods, Services, Labour and SpaceC
on
su
min
g S
ect
ors
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Ec
on
om
ic F
low
s
commoditiesac
tiviti
es
Household activities• Produce labour• Consume goods, services, residential
space
Business, government,
and not for profit activities• Produce goods or services (usually one
type)• Consume goods, services, labour and
nonresidential space
PECAS
1: Where to locate
2: What to make and what to consume in the process (called the ‘technology’ to use)
3: Where to buy what is consumed and where to sell what is made
4: What type of space (floorspace, buildings) to build
5: How much space to build
Just 5 Choices
The interactions among these
Location Choice
Technology Choice
Buying and SellingExchange Choice
location alternatives; buildingwith local and neighbourhood attributes
technology options; vectors of the make and use of items, production processes for establishments and lifestyles for households
exchange locations; where the seller stops and the buyer starts paying for transport
PECAS AA Choice Model(Additive logit model)
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
parcel-by-parcel microsimulation
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
more
the sa
me
no ch
an
ge
mid
den
sity re
siden
tial
com
mercia
lin
du
strial
dere
lict
quantity
parcel-by-parcel microsimulation
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
more
the sa
me
no ch
an
ge
mid
den
sity re
siden
tial
com
mercia
lin
du
strial
dere
lict
quantity
zoning dictates set of alternatives
parcel-by-parcel microsimulation
Space Development:Simulation of Transitions
Nested logit structure
No changeDemolish DerelictAdd spaceNew space type
QuantityQuantitymulti-level nested discrete-continuous logit
Treatment of Space (Land Areas and Locations)
Treatment of Spaceparcel or grid cell site
Treatment of Space
transport analysis zone (TAZ)
Treatment of Space
land use zone (LUZ)
SANDAG PECAS
SANDAG PECAS ModelApplication: Background• San Diego Association of Governments• Built and calibrated the model
– Iterative approach, starting in 2007– Production-ready and development work streams last
few years, completed 2012• Sensitivity tests and policy analysis• Now using in formal forecasting process
# I TM 2 0 1 4
SANDAG PECAS ModelApplication: Model Design• Standard PECAS Framework
– 46 Activity Types, ~ 9 Household Categories– 85 Commodity Categories, ~ 7 Labor and 35 Space
Types– 236 Land Use Zones– 2005 to 2012 for calibration; 2012 to 2050 for
forecasting– 4-Step Transport Model every 3 years starting 2005
• Rent Smoothing, Construction Control
# I TM 2 0 1 4
PECAS SANDAG Original Motivations• Focus on redevelopment potential
– Not enough capacity though new development– Force thoughtful consideration of different redevelopment
possibilities• Add economic performance analysis to existing forecasting
– Consumer benefit measures– Travel costs are not a good measure of transportation system
performance• Represent economic interactions
– Greater insight into why location and technology/lifestyle choices are made
# I TM 2 0 1 4
Zoning and capacity
Zoning• Permissions that constrain
SD• Developed through review
of published regulations• SANDAG interns guided by
demographers/modelers, ~2009
• Allowed uses• Allowed intensities (FAR)• Each local government
Capacity• Parcel-by-parcel review by
SANDAG and local planners• Envisioned full build-out
development on each parcel• “Planned” development type,
and count of residential units• Reflects historical agreement
as to regional vision
Zoning and capacity
• Initial model runs showed developer profit potential of being allowed to build legally allowed projects at legally allowed intensities.
• Initial purpose of the model• Felt to be too radical, official planning process
(at least for RTP) needed to reflect trends and past agreements
• “Capacity” added to model, for forecasting purposes.
Sensitivity Tests Scenarios• s21: Reference• s22: HH LUZ Capacities Removed• s23: HH LUZ Capacities Removed; Veh Costs x 3• s24: HH LUZ Capacities Removed; Dev Fees = 0• s25: HH LUZ Capacities Removed; Transit Freq x 3
PECAS SANDAG Application: Background
Results
Shifts in Daily Total VMT and VHT
(S21)
(S22)
(S23)
(S24)
(S25)
Removing Household Capacities150kplus 3+ households
Removing Household CapacitiesUnder25k 3+ households
Vehicle Costs X3150kplus 3+ households
Implications
• Forecasting system– But beware: are you ready to let go of your
previous forecasts? • And, are you retiring or changing jobs soon?
– If not, consider constraint or capacity system• Negotiated build-out scenario may not be very
economically efficient– Zoning may be more permissive than you think– Or less permissive than it seems
Implications
• All our travel infrastructure and service plans may be having marginal effects on regional livability (consumer surplus), when compared to strong land use planning visions
• Behavioral spatial economic modeling may indeed force thoughtful consideration of policy– Success! (by original definition…)
• RTP forecasting is different than policy analysis and consensus forecasting– Can contain limited elements of each– But strict timeline and process requirements