Introduction to Sustainable development: Scientific

background

Prof. Ruben Mnatsakanian,

Central European University

Budapest, Hungary

12 October 2004

Definitions of “Sustainable Development”

• Most sustainability definitions originate from the relationships between humans and the resources they use. Students at Oregon State University collected 75 definitions of sustainability, 65% of them explicitly identified sustainability as resource management and use practices

• In many cases the sustainability goal is being applied only to the economic/social part of the development process, while the ecological part is considered as a background on the stage where economy is developing

From: Voinov, Smith, www.uvm.edu/giee/AV/PUBS/DS/Sust_Dim.html

Classical definition:

” Economic and social development that meets the needs of the current generation without undermining the ability of future generations to meet their own needs".

(formulated in 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), otherwise known as the Brundtland Commission)

Rio Conference, 1992:

• Agenda 21 - Principle 1

– Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature

Comparison of Earth with neighboring planets

What makes Earth unique planet in our Solar system:

• Range of temperatures which allows water to be present in all three forms (solid, liquid and gaseous), which is essential for cycles of elements

• Presence of oxygen in the atmosphere which is due to functioning of living organisms during billions of years

• Oxygen allows formation of ozone layer, protecting life forms from deadly ultra-violet radiation

• Presence of Moon which stabilizes Earth’s orbit.

Structure of Earth’s Atmosphere

The atmosphere begins at sea level, and its first layer, the troposphere, extends from 8 to 16 km from Earth’s surface. The air in the troposphere consists of the following proportions of gases: 78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen, 0.9 percent argon, 0.03 percent carbon dioxide, and the remaining 0.07 percent is a mixture of hydrogen, water, ozone, neon, helium, krypton, xenon, and other trace components.

Climate on Earth is subject to cyclic changes• There were at least four major glacial periods during

the last half million years, with interglacial periods lasting about 20-30 000 years

• During the periods of maximum cooling glaciers were covering huge areas in North America and Europe

• Sea level at the peaks of glaciations was nearly 100 meters lower than present

• Currently we are living in interglacial period that ended roughly 8000-10000 years ago

• There is certain evidence that changes between glacial and interglacial periods in the past took place over relatively short periods of time (50-100 years)

Why worry about human intervention?

Never in the past CO2 concentration was at such a high level !

Maximum level of past fluctuations

Atmospheric lifetime of pollutants

• Crucial factor for assessment of air pollution is so-called atmospheric lifetime (how long single molecule of a particulate pollutant can stay in the atmosphere before it is removed)

• For many pollutants which are causing global effects (like global warming or ozone depletion atmospheric lifetime may be as long as 75-120 years)

• It means that even if we stop all pollution at once negative effects of accumulated pollutants can be felt decades later. There is a lot of inertia in the system.

Role of human factor in carbon cycle

Significant climatic anomalies and events in 2003. Average global temperature was third warmest on record. There has been a rise in

global temperature of 0.6°C since 1900.

(Sources: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, United States and WMO)

Combined annual land (near surface) and sea-surface temperature anomalies from 1861-2003 (departures in degrees Celsius from the average in the 1961-1990 base period) for

(a) the globe; (b) the northern hemisphere north of 30°N; (c) the Tropics (30°N-30°S); and (d) the southern hemisphere south of 30°S. The solid red curves have had subdecadal

time scale variations smoothed with a binomial filter. Anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for 2003 are: +0.46 (a); +0.71 (b); +0.45 (c); and +0.15 (d).

(Sources: IPCC, 2001 and Hadley Centre, The Met Office, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK).

Monthly sea-ice extent anomalies for 1973- 2003 (departures in millions of km2 from the average in the 1973-2003 base period) for (a) the Arctic and (b) the Antarctic. The values

are derived from satellite passive microwave sounder data.

(Source: Hadley Centre, The Met Office, UK)

Arctic Ice in 1979

Arctic Ice in 2003

Diseases, potentially affected by climate change

Impact of mankind on the environment

I = P . A . T

where:

I- impact

P- population

A- affluence

T- technology

(Ehrilch & Holdren, 1971)

Evolution of “sustainable development” ideas

• I = P A T

• P- we should limit population growth! (Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) and his followers)

• A- we should stop consumption! (Limits to Growth report, 1972)

• T – we should develop, but in sustainable way! (CSD, 1987)

Anamorphoses of Global GDP and Population

Population growth since 10000 BC

Stages of demographic transition

•

Population Growth

Population Pyramid in Group 1 Country

Population Pyramid in Group 2 Country

Population Pyramid in Group 3 Country

Russian Population Pyramid, 1989 and 2002

Duration of demographic transition

Country Beginning End Duration M

France 1785 1970 185 1.62

Sweden 1810 1960 150 3.83

Germany 1876 1965 89 2.11

f. USSR 1895 1965 70 2.05

India 1920 2010 90 3.67

Mexico 1920 2000 80 2.95

China 1930 2000 70 2.46

Egypt 1946 2010 64 3.88

World 1960 2050 90 3.0

Source: S.Kapitsa, 2001

Population pyramids in France, Sweden, Germany and Italy at various stages of Demographic Transition

Population Pyramids for Developed and Developing Countries, 1985 and 2025

A population growing at a constant 1% per year would double in 70 years (69.3 years, to be exact). 2% annial growth means 35 years doubling time, etc.

Shape of countries as proportion of their population, 1950 and 2050 (projection)

Size of countries as proportion of their GDP, 2000

Source: UNEP GRID-Arendal, 2004

Population and GDP, % of world total, by regions

Source: UNEP GRID-Arendal, 2004

The IPCC scenarios

Emphasis on sustainability and equityEmphasis on material wealth

Globalisation

Regionalisation

B1

B2A2

A1

“Markets first” “Policy First”

“Security first” “Sustainability first”

What scenarios assume:

• The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries

• In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals

• The Security First scenario assumes a world of great disparities, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses

• Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions

Economy

SRES- IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Population

Development First• Start from development priorities, not from climate

change• Objectives of development / poverty eradication

must be met, but with ... .... Development strategies that aim for:

– climate safe development, i.e. development that leads to low vulnerability to climate change

– climate friendly development, i.e. development that leads to low GHG emissions

• Build international agreements and collaboration to support these national strategies

See also: www.developmentfirst.org