Introduction to Statistical Paleobiology

Instructor: Lee Hsiang LiowCentre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University

of Oslo

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Course Generalities

• What this course is not• (How to ask) the questions we ask in paleobiology• Why we need numbers and what kinds of numbers are useful• Why we need models and how to make models

Some Aims

– Refresh memory on useful bits of probability and statistics – Learn how to make useful models and useful inference– Get (more) familiar with a programming language.

R (why?)– Get a feel of the broader

paleobiological/macroevolutionary literature– Learn to be critical of the published literature as so to be

able to improve on inferences

• Most lectures will have short exercises done/started in class• Most lectures readings before/after the lecture• Most lectures will have extra material that should help in the

future

Assignment(s) feeding into a larger project! You *should* spend most of the next 2-3 weeks on this

course if you really want to get something out of it (only listening to me blah blah isn’t enough)

The “Work” Involved

Timeline

• Introduction (4 Sep Helsinki), Assignment 1, Step 1• Lecture 1 (9 Sep Oslo), single taxon extinction, Assignment 2• Lecture 2 (11 Sep Oslo), group extinction rates, • Lecture 3 (16 Sep Oslo), phenotypic evolution (single lineage)

Assignment 1 Step 2• Lecture 4 (18 Sep Oslo) , ???• (turn in draft of Assignment 1 and 2 before 1 Oct)• Concluding lecture (2 Oct Helsinki), Discussions (papers

assigned)

Evaluation~

Communication

Assignment 1

• Aim: write a researched summary article on your choice of a paleobiological subject as a wikipedia article (that should not already exist as a wiki page). You might ultimately like to publish this!

• Suggest topics by 6 September (email me)• E.g. of topics – conservation paleobiology, coordinated stasis• Length: about 3 pages double spaced, excluding figures and

references.• First Draft sent to me by 15 September (12CET)• Commenting on others (Assignment 1 Step 2) Exchange on

16th September