Introduction to Hazards Introduction to Hazards Concepts and TheoryConcepts and Theory

Session 2Session 2

Important ConceptsImportant Concepts

Hazards (Natural, Hazards (Natural, Anthropogenic Anthropogenic Non-Intentional, Non-Intentional, Anthropogenic Anthropogenic Intentional)Intentional)

AccidentsAccidents EmergenciesEmergencies CrisesCrises DisastersDisasters

CatastrophesCatastrophes CalamitiesCalamities VulnerabilityVulnerability RiskRisk Spatial AspectsSpatial Aspects Temporal AspectsTemporal Aspects Pervasive EventsPervasive Events Short Fuse EventsShort Fuse Events

HazardsHazards

Embraces a societal threatEmbraces a societal threat NaturalNatural Anthropogenic Non-Intentional Anthropogenic Non-Intentional

(Technological)(Technological) Anthropogenic IntentionalAnthropogenic Intentional

AccidentAccident

An unexpected or undesirable event, especially one causing injury to a small number of individuals and/or modest damage to physical structures

Example: Automobile wreck, lightning strike at one house

EmergenciesEmergencies

An unexpected event which places life and/or property in danger and requires an immediate response through the use of routine community resources and procedures

CrisesCrises

Short period of extreme dangerShort period of extreme danger Acute emergency Acute emergency

DisastersDisasters

The situation after the hazardous The situation after the hazardous event occurs which had a immense event occurs which had a immense impact on humans and what they impact on humans and what they valuevalue

Large impact on societyLarge impact on society Is there a threshold that says “this is Is there a threshold that says “this is

a disaster?”a disaster?” A hazardous event that significantly A hazardous event that significantly

disrupts the workings of societydisrupts the workings of society

Disaster DefinitionDisaster Definition

An event in which a community An event in which a community undergoes severe danger and incurs, undergoes severe danger and incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses or is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the to persons and/or property that the resources available within the resources available within the community are severely taxedcommunity are severely taxed

ThresholdsThresholds

Sheehan and Hewitt (1969): events Sheehan and Hewitt (1969): events leading 100 deaths, 100 injuries, or leading 100 deaths, 100 injuries, or $1 million in damages$1 million in damages

Glickman et al. (1992): 25 fatalitiesGlickman et al. (1992): 25 fatalities Do you agree with these thresholds?Do you agree with these thresholds?

CatastrophesCatastrophes

Arbitrary since levels of impact mean Arbitrary since levels of impact mean different things to different people in different things to different people in different situationsdifferent situations

Could be 500 deaths or $10 million in Could be 500 deaths or $10 million in damagesdamages

Need to account for scaleNeed to account for scale

Catastrophe DefinitionCatastrophe Definition

An event in which a society incurs, or An event in which a society incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses to is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the persons and/or property that the entire society is affected and entire society is affected and extraordinary resources and skills extraordinary resources and skills are required, some of which must are required, some of which must come from other nationscome from other nations

ScaleScale

Catastrophe if every building destroyed by Catastrophe if every building destroyed by flooding as in Valmeyer, IL in 1993flooding as in Valmeyer, IL in 1993

Globally, insignificant if only 350 homes Globally, insignificant if only 350 homes involvedinvolved

Same with $10 million on a global scale, Same with $10 million on a global scale, but on a local level, could be devastating but on a local level, could be devastating to some communities (wealthier to some communities (wealthier communities could cope better)communities could cope better)

CalamityCalamity

A massive or extreme catastrophic A massive or extreme catastrophic disaster that extends over time and disaster that extends over time and spacespace

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Combination of risk and responseCombination of risk and response Lack of ability to respond or lack of Lack of ability to respond or lack of

response can increase vulnerabilityresponse can increase vulnerability Well-thought out plans aiding all Well-thought out plans aiding all

segments of society can reduce segments of society can reduce vulnerabilityvulnerability

Tobin and Montz, (1997)Tobin and Montz, (1997)

Additional VulnerabilityAdditional Vulnerability

Differential susceptibility of Differential susceptibility of ecosystems, households, or social ecosystems, households, or social groups to lossesgroups to losses

Susceptibility is a function of three Susceptibility is a function of three dimensions: exposure, resistance, dimensions: exposure, resistance, and resilienceand resilience

Resistance and resilience are Resistance and resilience are referred to as coping abilitiesreferred to as coping abilities

Dow (1999)Dow (1999)

ExposureExposure

Degree of risk of an event Degree of risk of an event experience in everyday lifeexperience in everyday life

From probability of a hazard to actual From probability of a hazard to actual occurrences of events of all sizesoccurrences of events of all sizes

Hurricane threat for FloridaHurricane threat for Florida

ResistanceResistance

Ability to withstand the impacts and Ability to withstand the impacts and continue to functioncontinue to function

FloridaFlorida

ResilienceResilience

Ability to recover, ranging in degree Ability to recover, ranging in degree from simply achieving stability at any from simply achieving stability at any level of functioning to recovering the level of functioning to recovering the full range of resources and positive full range of resources and positive momentum that existed prior to the momentum that existed prior to the eventevent

Hurricanes Charley and IvanHurricanes Charley and Ivan

Even more VulnerabilityEven more Vulnerability

Involves a combination of factors that Involves a combination of factors that determines the degree to which determines the degree to which someone’s life and livelihood is put at risk someone’s life and livelihood is put at risk by a discrete or identifiable event in by a discrete or identifiable event in nature or societynature or society

Difficult to reconstruct your livelihood after Difficult to reconstruct your livelihood after a disastera disaster

You are then more vulnerable to You are then more vulnerable to subsequent hazardous eventssubsequent hazardous events

Blaikie et al. (1994)Blaikie et al. (1994)

RiskRisk

Hewitt’s Ecological Perspective: Hewitt’s Ecological Perspective: physical conditions or processes physical conditions or processes known as Hazardousness of a Placeknown as Hazardousness of a Place

Location near volcano, fault, coast, Location near volcano, fault, coast, or other physical featureor other physical feature

Probability of an adverse effectProbability of an adverse effect Can be one component of hazards Can be one component of hazards

but also a combination of issues but also a combination of issues (action, preparation, recovery)(action, preparation, recovery)

More RiskMore Risk

Probability of an adverse effectProbability of an adverse effect Risk can be one component of Risk can be one component of

hazards but also very complex hazards but also very complex combination of issuescombination of issues

Can include a choice of action and an Can include a choice of action and an outcome, which may include a outcome, which may include a probability of occurrence and a probability of occurrence and a magnitudemagnitude

Tobin and Montz (1997)Tobin and Montz (1997)

Additional RiskAdditional Risk

Mark Monmonier: Probability of Mark Monmonier: Probability of realizing a threat of a hazard (to life realizing a threat of a hazard (to life or property)or property)

Risk= probability of occurrence x Risk= probability of occurrence x vulnerabilityvulnerability

Total Risk: expected number of lives Total Risk: expected number of lives lost, injured, damage to property, or lost, injured, damage to property, or loss of economic activity or loss of economic activity or environmentenvironment

Relative RiskRelative Risk

Geographic location can help Geographic location can help determine if a specific event is a determine if a specific event is a hazardhazard

6” of snow in Buffalo is not a big 6” of snow in Buffalo is not a big problem, but 1/2” in Washington, problem, but 1/2” in Washington, D.C. shut down the cityD.C. shut down the city

Freezing temperatures in Ohio versus Freezing temperatures in Ohio versus Florida and CaliforniaFlorida and California

Spatial AspectsSpatial Aspects

Not all hazards occur in all parts of Not all hazards occur in all parts of the Earththe Earth

Physical parameters help determine Physical parameters help determine riskrisk

How many blizzards at tropical How many blizzards at tropical locations at sea level?locations at sea level?

How many hurricanes in Minnesota?How many hurricanes in Minnesota?

Areal ExtentAreal Extent

Also relativeAlso relative Some hazards are diffuse and extend Some hazards are diffuse and extend

over thousands of square miles and over thousands of square miles and impact relatively few peopleimpact relatively few people

1994 drought in Australia was 1994 drought in Australia was serious for agricultural interests but serious for agricultural interests but not the general populationnot the general population

1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in San 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in San Francisco or Flash Flood in HoustonFrancisco or Flash Flood in Houston

Temporal AspectsTemporal Aspects

Timing of events can affect the Timing of events can affect the outcome of hazardsoutcome of hazards

Northridge, CA earthquake in 1994, Northridge, CA earthquake in 1994, occurred around 4:30 am with total occurred around 4:30 am with total fatalities of 57fatalities of 57

What could have happened 3-4 hours What could have happened 3-4 hours later?later?

Timing?Timing?

Flooding may benefit farmers by Flooding may benefit farmers by increasing soil moisture and fertile increasing soil moisture and fertile soilsoil

What happens when the crops are What happens when the crops are already growing?already growing?

Time ScaleTime Scale

Some hazards described in relation Some hazards described in relation to rate of the process or warning to rate of the process or warning time time

Short Fuse EventsShort Fuse Events Pervasive EventsPervasive Events

Pervasive EventsPervasive Events

Creeping or pervasive hazards have Creeping or pervasive hazards have no definite beginning or end which no definite beginning or end which makes response more difficultmakes response more difficult

Drought, heat waves, cold spellsDrought, heat waves, cold spells

Short Fuse EventsShort Fuse Events

Tornadoes, earthquakes, flash Tornadoes, earthquakes, flash flooding, and windstormsflooding, and windstorms

How much time for warnings?How much time for warnings?