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C A N A D A B R A Z I L H O N G K O N G A U S T R A L I A C O L O M B I A C H I L E B A H A M A S F R A N C E D U B A I C H I N A
U N I T E D S T A T E S M E X I C O U N I T E D K I N G D O M S I N G A P O R E P E R U
I N D I A
I R E L A N D K O R E A J A P A N M A L A Y S I A T H A I L A N D T A I W A N
FX OUTLOOK SHAUN OSBORNE l CHIEF FX STRATEGIST l 416-945-4538 l
Q1 2016
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SCOTIABANK: FORECAST
FX - USD strength through 2016 REAL GDP - US outperforms
2015 2016f 2017f 00-14 2015f 2016f 2017f
USDCAD 1.38 1.39 1.26 US 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.7
CADUSD 0.72 0.72 0.79 Canada 2.2 1.2 1.6 2.3
USDMXN 17.21 17.52 16.81 Mexico 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.5
EURUSD 1.09 0.95 1.12 Euro Zone 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8
GBPUSD 1.47 1.44 1.60 UK 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.0
USDJPY 120 131 137 Japan 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.9
USDCNY 6.49 6.70 6.65 China 9.7 6.9 6.4 6.2
INFLATION 2015f 2016f 2017f INTEREST RATES - Diverging policy
US 0.5 2.2 2.3 Q415 Q416 Q417
Canada 1.3 2.2 2.2 FED 0.50 1.50 2.50
BoC 0.50 0.50 1.00
COMMODITIES - Yearly averages ECB 0.05 0.05 0.05
Oil (WTI) 49 40-45 45-50 BoE 0.50 1.00 1.50
Gold 1,160 1,090 1,200 RBA 2.00 1.75 1.75
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Source: BOC MPR, January 2016
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Source; www.bcgperspectives.com
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• The technical set up in USDCAD suggests the
USD has reached an important, short-term
peak at least. Longer-term, upside risks are
moderating for USDCAD as well.
• Daily/weekly price patterns suggest a
top/reversal formed around the recent high;
losses below 1.4150/70 near-term should see
USDCAD correct further towards 1.38/1.40.
• Longer-term trends may be moderating for the
USD; USDCAD’s failure to make sustained
progress through 1.45000/05 retracement
resistance lessens the risk of an extension
towards 1.61/1.62.
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SCOTIABANK FX STRATEGY
SUMMARY OF DOCUMENTS
Daily FX Update – Published at 7:45am (EST)
Daily LatAM Update – Published at 7:45am (EST)
Daily Asian Update – Published at 10:00pm (EST)
Currency Sentiment CFTC Report – Published every Friday
Special Reports – Active trade strategies; intraday market moving
event, etc.
FX STRATEGY JOINT PUBLICATIONS WITH ECONOMICS
Global Views – Weekly update across asset classes
FX Monthly – Review of global currencies and forecasts
FX OUTLOOK CONFERENCE CALL
Twenty minute update on FX strategy
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SCOTIABANK FX STRATEGY
CONTACTS
Shaun Osborne
Chief FX Strategist, Managing Director
T.416.945.4538
Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT
FX Strategist (G10), Associate Director
T.416.863.7030
Please contact authors directly to be added to distribution lists.
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