U.S. FOREIGN POLICY POLS 425

professor timothy c. lim / cal state los angeles tclim@calstatela.edu

week 2: introduction to foreign policy analysis

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introduction to foreign policy analysisthe study of foreign policy

review of key points from last week

foreign policy analysis is concerned with a variety of questions: why-questions, who- and what questions, and

how-possible questions

foreign policy analysis is interdisciplinary, drawing from a variety of theoretical approaches

there is a special relationship between foreign policy analysis and ir

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

review: fields relevant to foreign policy

international relations

social psychology

rational choice

comparative politics

public policy

critical theory

others

special relationship between IR and foreign policy

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

review: fields relevant to foreign policy

authors also believe that the newradical accounts of IR are

important; even more …

their own approach is based on critical

political analysis

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

so what is critical political analysis?

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introduction to coursethe study of foreign policy

changing gears …

theories offoreign policy

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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy

general notes about theory: definitions

simply put, theories are explanations of how something or some process works; theories are used to identify cause-and-effect relationships and to make predictions

another definition. a theory is a framework of analysis within which facts are not only selected, but also interpreted, organized, and fit together so that they create a coherent whole

a theory helps us explain or better understand the world in which we live

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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy

general notes about theory

theories are necessarily simplifications of a more complex whole; theories are not reality, but they are designed to tell use something

meaningful and important about the real world

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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy

general notes about theory: additional points

first, the various theories of foreign policy are not dependent on whether they are accepted or even understood by

policy makers themselves

second, theory and practice may be mutually constitutive

third, the theories we study are sometimes compatible, but sometimes contradictory

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introduction to theorythe study of foreign policy

one more point to consider

as we discuss the various theories of foreignpolicy, consider the question, “Whichperspective did candidate Obama mostclosely reflect?”

obama’s view as a candidate is explicitly articulated in the article, “renewing american leadership”

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an introduction to realism

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

a scene from a few good men: “you can’t

handle the truth!”

a classic statement of realist principles

question: what is the eternal, realist “truth”

about which jack nicholson’s character

speaks?

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

realism and foreign policy

opening questions

what is realism?

how is it applied to the analysis and practiceof foreign policy

what are the pitfalls in applying realist theoriesto foreign policy analysis?

what is a useful set of guidelines for avoidingthose pitfalls and using realist insights tosharpen the analysis of foreign policy?

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism? core principles

groupism. humans are divided into groups and humans depend on their own groups for safety and survival

egoism. self-interest ultimately drives political behavior

power-centrism. power is the fundamental feature of politics

to realists, these are all fundamental truths about the the world; they are the rules by which world politics operate. such rules have

consequences; they shape human behavior in particular ways

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

additional principles

central questions focus on the causes of war and conflict

the structure of the international system is a necessary, but not always sufficient for explaining relations among states

primary unit of analysis is the sovereign state

states are first and foremost guided by national interests defined in terms of power

states are rational, unitary actors

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

the key concept in realism in anarchy

dictionary definition: “absence of government; the state of society where there is no law or supreme power; a state of lawlessness; political confusion.”

in realism, anarchy is not the absence of government per se, but is instead the absence of a sovereign authority that exists

above the state. to (many) realists, moreover, the international system is not “confused,” but is governed by a structure of power dominated

by the strongest states

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

implications of anarchy

in an anarchic system, an unavoidable logic prevails, one based on the notion,”survival of the fittest.”

in an anarchic world, only the strong survive and prosper; you can only count on yourself for help: friends are friends

only when it serves their interests

one of the clearest enunciations of the principles and implications of anarchy can be found in

a few good men …

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

realism: assumptions, conditions and theories: some caveats

do not confuse assumptions (groupism, egoism, and power-centrism) with scope conditions (anarchy)

anarchy is a variable condition; where it is strongest, the potential for conflict is highest; where it is attenuated, orderis stronger

do not confuse assumptions with predictions

conflict is not an assumption, but a prediction: realists predict conflict under certain conditions of anarchy

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

theoretical schools within realism

realism is a diverse school of thought that includes several variants

classical realism

neorealism (or structural realism)

defensive realism (“inside-out” variant)

offensive realism (“hyper-realism”)

neoclassical realism (“foreign policy” realism)

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

specific theories within realism

the diversity of realism is also evident in specific theories of realism

balance of power

balance of threat

hegemonic stability theory

power transition theory

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

specific theories within realism

balance of power and balance of threat

balance of power (b.o.p.) and balance of threat (b.o.t.) are similar, but the key difference in the motive for “balancing”

in the former, balancing is based on a single, one-dimensional criterion: military potential

in the latter, balancing is based on a multi-dimensional assessment of military potential,

geography and perception of intentions

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introduction to realismchapter 2: realism and foreign policy

what is realism?

specific theories within realism

hegemonic stability theory and power transition theory

h.s.t. qualifies notion of anarchy by underscoring the “stabilizing” power of a single, dominant state—the hegemon; theory

considers how hegemonic power impacts international system

p.t.t. works from h.s.t. and examines how and whyhegemonic power declines

this lecture will continue in our next class meeting

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