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Module 3 Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation
Learning Objectives
1. Explain the importance of adaptation in preparing for and
coping with climate change
2. Outline key elements of a vulnerability assessment
4. Explain linkages between climate change adaptation and development
planning 3. Identify adaptation options
By the end of the module participants
will be able to:
2
Overview
Overview
Section 1
Introduction to Climate Change
Adaptation
Section 2
Conducting a Vulnerability Assessment
Section 3
Identifying and Selecting
Adaptation Options
Section 4
Linking Adaptation and
Development Planning
Section 5
International Initiatives to
Support Climate Change
Adaptation
3
Introduction to Climate
Change Adaptation
Section 1
4
What is Climate Change Adaptation?
“Adaptation to climate change refers to adjustments in human and natural systems in
response to actual or expected climatic variation, with a view to moderating harm
or exploiting beneficial opportunities.”
(Source: Based on IPCC 2001)
Source: UNDP & UNEP-PEI 2001
5
Types of Adaptation
Type Action
Anticipatory adaptation
Taking action in preparation of
climate change
Reactive adaptation Taking action when climate
change effects are experienced
Source: IPCC
6
Definitions of Related Concepts
Vulnerability to Climate Change
“The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate
change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude,
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.”
(IPCC 2007)
Adaptive Capacity
“The whole of capabilities, resources and institutions of a country or region to implement effective
adaptation measures.”
(IPCC 2007)
Climate Risk
“The combination of the likelihood (probability of occurrence) and the consequences of an adverse
event (e.g. tropical cyclone, drought, flood).”
(UNDP 2011)
Resilience
“The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for
self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.”
(IPCC 2007)
7
Key Sectors Affected by Climate Change
Key Sectors
Disaster Risk
Reduction Education
Energy
Fisheries
Food And Agriculture
Forestry
Health Infra-
structure
Nature & Ecosystem Conser-vation
Spatial Planning
Tourism
Transport
Waste
Water
8
Examples of How Temperature Rise Affects Different Sectors (I)
*Significant is defined here as more than 40%
Source: IPCC 2007 as used in UNDP 2009 p17
9
Global mean temperature change relative to 1980-1999 °C
Examples of How Temperature Rise Affects Different Sectors (II)
** Based on average rate of sea level rise of 4.2mm/year from 2000 to 2008 Source: IPCC 2007 as used in UNDP 2009 p17
10
Global mean temperature change relative to 1980-1999 °C
Estimates of Annual Adaptation Costs in Developing Countries, 2010-2015
Source: Reproduced from IFAD
11
Source USD billion
per annum
World Bank (2006) 9 – 41
Stern (2006) 4 – 37
UNDP (2007) 86 – 109
UNFCCC (2007) 27 – 67
Key Elements of an Adaptation Process
Observation
Assessment of climate
impacts and vulnerability
Select adaptation
options
Implementation of adaptation
measures
Monitoring & evaluation of adaptation
actions
12
Source: Based on UNFCCC 2011
Data Requirements for Effective Adaptation
Climate Data
• National and local weather data
• Seasonal forecasts
• Future projections from climate models
• …
Other Environmental Data
Forest cover
Water resources
Biodiversity
…
Socio-Economic Data
• Population dynamics
• Urbanization trends
• Economic development forecasts
• Gender and age
• …
Planning Information
• National development plans
• Sub-national and municipal development plans
• …
13
Importance of Stakeholder Engagement
14
Source: IPA Netzwerk
Case Study: Community-Based Adaptation Initiatives in Samoa
Adaptation to flooding and
sea-level rise
Protection and conservation of
mangroves, eco-systems, and
coral reefs
Community awareness
programmes inform local
stakeholders about
the connection between
ecosystems, their livelihoods,
and climate change
Source: UNDP Adaptation Learning Mechanism
15
Challenges of Adaptation
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEyh0U81ErU
Video: Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) talks about the challenges of adaptation
16
Conducting a Vulnerability
Assessment
Section 2
17
The Components of Vulnerability
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
Potential Impact
Vulnerability
Source: Reproduced from Midgley, Davies & Chesterman 2011 p3
18
New Perspectives on Vulnerability & Risk
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
Potential Impact
Vulnerability
Source: IPCC 2014, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
19
Why Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment?
Vulnerability assessments
help to identify who is
most vulnerable, where
they are located, and
what risks they face. They
are an important input to
planning for adaptation. Source: WeAdapt
20
Summary of Assessment Tools and Methods
22
APPROACH KEY FEATURES
MOTIVATION GOALS METHODS
IMPACT-BASED Research driven Identify actions to reduce
risks
• Biophysical and socio-
economic impacts
VULNERABILITY-BASED Research /Stakeholder
driven
Identify actions to reduce
vulnerability • Vulnerability indicators
• Climate risks
• Livelihood analysis
• Narrative methods ADAPTATION-BASED Research /Stakeholder
driven
Identify actions to
improve adaptation
INTEGRATED
ASSESSMENT
Research /Stakeholder
driven
Identify global climate
policy and economic
options
• Cross-sectoral interactions
RISK MANAGEMENT Decision-making driven Inform climate risk
management decisions
• Methods applied under
other approaches
Source: Reproduced from UNFCCC 2011 p18
First Generation of Assessments
Climate scenarios
Biophysical impacts
Socio-economic impacts
Adaptations to impacts
Residual or net impacts
Source: UNFCCC 2006 p103
23
Climate
Science
Social
Science
Second Generation of Assessments
Source: UNFCCC 2011 p19
24
SECOND GENERATION OF ASSESSMENTS
25
Source: UNFCCC 2006 p 103
Vulnerability ― Example 1: Changing Rainfall Patterns in Kitui, Kenya
• The arid area of Kitui likely to receive less water in the future
• Rains are no longer reliable and droughts may last longer
Potential Impact
(Exposure)
• Reduced crop productivity due to lack of irrigation systems and drought resistant crops
• Loss of income and increased poverty
Potential Impact
(Sensitivity)
• Travelling large distances to collect fresh water not viable
• Moving of population to other areas not possible
• Effective irrigation technology not available
Adaptive Capacity
26
Further info: IPCC website
Vulnerability ― Example 1: Changing Rainfall Patterns in Kitui, Kenya
Case Kitui, Kenya
Exposure High
Sensitivity High
Adaptive Capacity Low
Vulnerability High
Source: guide2kenya
27
Vulnerability ― Example 2: Coastal Zone Management in the Netherlands
• The Netherlands are already below sea level
• Increased sea level creates risks of coastal inundation & erosion
Potential Impact
(Exposure)
• Existing dykes may no longer be effective against higher sea levels
• A breach of dykes would result in loss of land, and damage to crops and habitats
Potential Impact
(Sensitivity)
• Funds available to implement adaptation measures (e.g. increase height of dams)
• Skills and equipment available
Adaptive Capacity
28
Further info: WMO website
Vulnerability ― Example 2: Coastal Zone Management in the Netherlands
Case Netherlands
Exposure High
Sensitivity High
Adaptive Capacity High
Vulnerability Low
Source: Wikipedia/Rens Jacobs
29
Vulnerability ― Example 3: The Case of Tropical Storms in Jamaica
• The Caribbean already exposed to tropical storms
• Storms projected to increase in intensity and frequency
Potential Impact
(Exposure)
• Increase of intensive storms may result in additional damage to the population and the natural and built environment
• Areas with poorly constructed buildings particularly sensitive
Potential Impact
(Sensitivity)
• Limited technology to prevent damage
• Availability of labour and some financial resources
Adaptive Capacity
30
Case Jamaica
Exposure High
Sensitivity Medium
Adaptive Capacity Medium
Vulnerability Medium
Vulnerability ― Example 3: The Case of Tropical Storms in Jamaica
31
Good Practices in Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability
32
Source: Reproduced from UNFCCC 2011 p27
SCOPE •Analyze natural and social contexts
•Determine focus and expected outputs
SELECTION OF METHODS AND TOOLS • Select methods in accordance with available resources and time
QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE • Make use of qualitative and quantitative analysis
• Consider inputs from indigenous and local communities
PRESENT VERSUS FUTURE • Analyze current and future climatic and socio-economic patterns
STAKEHOLDERS • Involve key stakeholders throughout the entire process
COLLABORATION • Look at a wide range of disciplines
• Collaborate with different experts
TRANSPARENCY • Be clear about the underlying assumptions of the assessment
process and its results
Gender Vulnerability to Climate Change
Source: UnWomen Watch. Further info: UNFCCC Website
33
Identifying and Selecting
Adaptation Options
Section 3
34
Range of Adaptation Options: From Vulnerability to Impact Focus
Addressing the drivers of
vulnerability
• Activities seek to reduce poverty and other non-climatic stressors that make people vulnerable
Building response capacity
• Activities seek to build robust systems for problem-solving
Managing climate risks
• Activities seek to incorporate climate information into decision-making
Confronting climate change
• Activities seek to address impacts associated exclusively with climate change
Vulnerability Focus Impacts Focus
Traditional Development Funding New & Additional Adaptation Funding
Source: Reproduced from Mcgray et al 2007
35
Examples of Adaptation Actions with Different Foci
Source: Reproduced from Mcgray et al 2007
36
Different Methods for Selecting Adaptation Options
Analysis Context Advantages/ Strengths Disadvantages/
Weaknesses
Cost-benefit Costs and benefits can be
quantified in monetary
terms when the necessary
data are available
Monetizing allows
quantitative comparison
between diverse costs and
benefits
Non-market costs and
benefits (e.g. Ecological
and cultural values) as well
as distributional aspects are
difficult to include
Cost-effectiveness Objectives of adaptation
measures have been
identified, and the lowest
cost option is sought
It allows an analysis to be
carried out on non-
monetary costs and benefits
such as health and
ecosystem services
It cannot evaluate whether
a measure is justified
Multi-criteria Data are not fully
available, factors are not
easily quantified and
monetary benefits may be
only one of many criteria
used
Criteria can be optimized
to national and local
priorities; allows for
stakeholder engagement
Lack of monetary terms
may weaken economic case
for the justification of
measures
Source: Reproduced from UNFCCC 2011 p31
37
Range of Criteria for Selecting Adaptation Options
Sustainability
Mitigation Co-benefits
Environmental Impacts
Equity
Implementation Costs
Effectiveness
Robustness
Reliability
Risk and Uncertainty
Urgency
Degree of Risk or Impacts
Precautionary
Opportunity
Ancillary Benefits
No-regret Option
Window of Opportunity
Implemen-tation
Public Acceptability
Funding Sources
Individual and Institutional Capacity
Source: Reproduced from IISD, UNITAR & UNEP 2009 p37
38
Example of Selecting Adaptation Options
Source: Ranger & Garbett-Shiels 2011 p15
39
Sector Focus ― Agriculture: Examples of Possible Adaptation Measures
Development of tolerant/resistant crops
(to drought, salt, insect/pests)
Diversification of crops
Changes in fertilizer use and application
Changes in planting and harvesting
times
Soil-water management
Erosion control
Development of early warning systems
Related policy measures, such as
subsidies, and training and outreach
programmes
40
In Focus: FAO Online Learning Package on Climate-Smart Agriculture
41
Sector Focus ― Water: Examples of Possible Adaptation Interventions
Interventions
Institutional/
Policy
• Providing drinking water to coastal communities to combat enhanced salinity due to sea level rise
(Bangladesh)
• Mobilisation and integrated water resource management project (Cape Verde, Vanuatu)
• Implementation and management of water management associations (Madagascar)
• Contribution to better knowledge of surface water regimes (Mauritania)
• Institutional strengthening of water resources sector (Sierra Leone)
Technical • Rainwater harvesting (Bhutan, Burundi, Mali, Sierra Leone)
• Groundwater recharge for irrigation wells (Eritrea, Mauritania)
• Use of spate, drip irrigation and range land development (Eritrea, Mauritania)
• Stabilisation of river dynamics and water courses (Burundi, Mauritania, Mozambique)
• Coastal protection infrastructure (maldives)
• Increased water supply (Cambodia, Comoros, Djibouti, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea Bissau,
Kiribati, Maldives, Mauritania, Niger, Samoa, São Tomé&Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Tuvalu)
• Development and improvement of small-scale and community irrigation systems (Cambodia,
Ethiopia, Guinea Bissau, Rwanda)
Market • Water resource adaptation project (Kiribati)
Source: Overseas Development Institute 2009
42
Sector Focus ― Health: Examples of Possible Adaptation Measures
Establishment of climate change
and environment and health
information systems
Strengthening of disease and
weather early warning
Cost-effective technology for
water treatment for hospitals
Education and training of
environment and health
professionals
43
Further info: WHO website
WHO Documentary on Climate Change & Health
Video: WHO documentary about climate change adaptation to protect human health in the European and Central Asian regions
URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5gtjhwj-3m
44
Sector Focus ― Education: Examples of Possible Adaptation Measures
Review of curricula to integrate
climate change issues
Development of relevant quality
learning materials
Training on climate change for
teachers and curriculum developers
Protection of learning facilities to
meet the worst impacts of climate
change and disasters
45
Linking Adaptation and
Development Planning
Section 4
46
Climate Change ― A Development Challenge
47
Source: UNDP & UNEP 2011
Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Millennium Development Goals (I)
Source: Adapted from OECD 2009 p 29
48
Goal Potential Impact of Climate Change on Achievement of Goal
Eradicate
extreme
poverty and
hunger
• Climate change is projected to reduce the assets and livelihoods of
many poor people, for example health, access to water, homes, and
infrastructure.
• Climate change is projected to alter regional food security. In particular
in Africa, food security is expected to worsen.
Promote
gender
equality
• In the developing world in particular, women are disproportionately
involved in natural resource-dependent activities, such as agriculture,
which are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Millennium Development Goals (II)
Source: Adapted from OECD 2009 p 29
49
Goal Potential Impact of Climate Change on Achievment of Goal
Combat
major
diseases
• Direct effects of climate change include increases in heat-related
mortality and illnesses associated with heat waves
• Climate change may increase the prevalence of some vector-borne
diseases (for example malaria and dengue fever), and vulnerability to
water, food, or contagious diseases (for example cholera and
dysentery).
Ensure
environ.
sustainability
• Climate change is likely to alter the quality and productivity of natural
resources and ecosystems, some of which may be irreversibly damaged,
and these changes may also decrease biological diversity and
compound existing environmental degradation
Importance of Integrating Adaptation within Development Planning
50
Close relationship between climate change adaptation
and development issues
To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to
be mainstreamed in existing development policies and
processes
Adaptation considerations can also improve quality of
development policies and projects and make them
more sustainable in the long term
Entry Points for Integrating Adaptation within Development Planning
Source: Reproduced from UNDP & UNEP 2011 p 18
51
Planning Level Entry Points
National
government and
cross-sector
ministries
• Poverty reduction strategy paper
• National development plan
• MDG-based national development strategy
• National budget allocation process or review (e.g. medium-term
• expenditure framework, public expenditure review)
Sector ministries
• Sector strategies, plans and policies (e.g. agricultural sector plan)
• Preparation of sector budgets
• Public expenditure reviews
Subnational
authorities
• Decentralization policies
• District plans
• Preparation of subnational budgets
Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies
Source: Oxfam 2009 p 5
52
Meeting the Implementation Challenge
53
Budgeting and financing climate change adaptation
measures
Ensuring overall coordination by a central body
Strengthening multi-sector coordination
Building capacities of institutions and individuals at the
national, sector and sub-national level
Integrating adaptation in national monitoring system
International Initiatives to Support
Climate Change Adaptation
Section 5
54
Adaptation Support: Brief Overview
Nairobi Work Programme
National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
Programme on Loss & Damage
Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF)
55
Nairobi Work Programme
Expected Outcomes
• Enhanced capacity at international, regional, national, sectoral and local level
• Improved information and advice to the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the Climate Change Convention
• Enhanced dissemination and use of knowledge from practical adaptation activities
• Enhanced cooperation among parties, relevant organizations, business, civil society and decision makers
• Enhanced contribution of adaptation action to sustainable development
56
The Nairobi work
programme disseminates
knowledge and information
on adaptation as widely as
possible through a variety of
knowledge products and
publications.
National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)
57
NAPAs are country-driven processes to identify
activities that respond to urgent and immediate needs
of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in order to reduce their vulnerability
Steps include:
• Information synthesis
• Assessment of vulnerability and potential risk areas
• Identification of key priority adaptation measures
Further info: UNFCCC website. GEF website
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
Objectives of the NAP process:
(a) To reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by
building adaptive capacity and resilience
(b) To facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation into
relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in
particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different
levels.
58
Further info: UNFCCC website
Comparing the NAPA and the NAP Processes
Source: GSP 2012
59
Work Programme on Loss and Damage
60
Relatively new work programme
established in 2010
Objective: consider approaches
to address loss and damage
associated with climate change in
vulnerable developing countries
Challenge: lack of empirical
evidence of scope and
significance of loss and damage
associated with climate change
Further info: UNFCCC website
Loss and Damage in The Gambia
61
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeCCWGnykAU
Video: Interview with Dr. Sidat Yaffa about the findings of a case study on loss and damage in The Gambia
View the other
interviews
Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF)
62
Objective of the CAF:
Enhance action on adaptation, including through international
cooperation and coherent consideration of matters
relating to adaptation under the Convention.
Five CAF Clusters:
• Implementation
• Support
• Institutions
• Principles
• Stakeholder engagement
Further info: UNFCCC website
Annex
Additional Resources
63
Module Summary
64
Adaptation is any action taken to reduce the impacts or even benefit from
the effects of climate change.
Assessing the vulnerability of a locality is the first step to plan and
undertake adaptation action. Components of vulnerability include
exposure, sensitivity and adaptative capacity.
Adaptation actions need to be designed to suit the circumstances and
needs of different sectors and countries/regions.
There is a strong link between adaptation and development planning.
Integrating adaptation and development planning can bring additional
benefits beyond reduced vulnerability to climate change.
Useful Links
CDKN WeAdapt Adaptation Learning
Mechanism
PreventionWeb
CGIAR Research Programme
Africa Adaptation Knowledge Network
World Bank Climate Risk and
Adaptation Country Profiles
UNISDR National Platforms for Disaster Risk
Reduction
FAO e-Tool Community-Based
Adaptation
IFAD e-Learning on Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change
NAPAs Received by the UNFCCC
Secretariat UN CC:Learn
65
Recommended Readings
IPCC (2007). 4th Assessment Report, Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
OECD (2009): Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation
PROVIA (2012). Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (VIA)
UNDP (2010). Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives: A UNDP Toolkit for Practitioners
UNDP (2012). Africa Adaptation Programme: Handbook on Capitalisation of Experiences
UNEP & UNDP (2011). Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning: A Guide for Practitioners
USAID (2012). Climate Change Adaptation Manual
66
Main References
OECD (2009): Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation
IISD, UNITAR & UNEP (2009). IEA Training Material:Vulnerability and Climate Change Impact Assessment for Adaptation
UNEP & UNDP (2011). Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Development Planning: A Guide for Practitioners
UNFCCC (2008). Compendium on Methods and Tools to Evaluate Impacts of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation to, Climate Change
UNFCCC. CGE Training Materials: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, Chapter Two
UNFCCC. Official Website
67