Introduction and context of the study 5 minutes Concept of Environmental Model Uncertainty &...
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Introduction and context of the study 5 minutes Concept of Environmental Model Uncertainty & Variability, Modeling & Example 15 minutes Baseline development
Introduction and context of the study 5 minutes Concept of
Environmental Model Uncertainty & Variability, Modeling &
Example 15 minutes Baseline development 15 minutes Scenario
development Set of scenarios 15 minutes Cost benefit assessment 10
minutes Exercises 20 minutes Conclusion 10 minutes
Slide 2
NameAffiliationNameAffiliation David Saah; Co-LeadUniversity of
San Francisco, SIGPhan Xuan ThieuVinh University, Vietnam Mohd Zaki
Hamzah; Co-LeadUniversity Putra MalaysiaChalita SriladdaUSAID-LEAD
Khamla Phanvilay, Co-LeadNational University of LaosHoang Thi Thu
DuyenVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Cao Thuy AnhDalat
University, VietnamLadawan PuangchitKasetsart University, Thailand
Chalermpol SamranpongChiang Mai University, ThailandDo Anh
TuanVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Pham Thanh NamUSAID LEAF
VietnamLyna KhanRoyal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Peter
StephenUSAID LEAF BangkokLe Ba ThuongVietnam Forestry University,
Vietnam Hoang Vinh PhuVinh University, VietnamNapat
JakwattanaUniversity of Phayao, Thailand Vipak JintanaKasetsart
University, ThailandNur Anishah Binti AzizUniversity Kebangsaan
Malaysia Kulala MulungPNG University of TechnologyRatcha
ChaichanaKasetsart University, Thailand Somvilay
ChanthalounnavongNational University of LaosSureerat
LakanavichianChiang Mai University, Thailand Thavrak HuonRoyal
University of Agriculture, CambodiaVongphet SihapanyaNational
University of Laos Athsaphangthong MunelithUSAID LEAF LaosDavid
GanzUSAID LEAF Bangkok Attachai JintrawetChiang Mai University,
ThailandChi Pham, Project CoordinatorUSAID LEAF Bangkok Chanin
ChiumkanokchaiUSAID LEAF BangkokKent ElliottUS Forest Service Lam
Ngoc TuanDalat University, VietnamBeth LebowUS Forest Service Mark
FennUSAID Vietnam Forests & DeltasGeoffrey BlateUS Forest
Service
Slide 3
Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP) SECTION 3. ANALYSIS OF
FUTURE OPTIONS Overview Regional Climate Change Curriculum
Development
Slide 4
ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITION ANALYSIS
OF FUTURE OPTIONS NEGOTIATING & PRIORITIZING IMPLEMENTA- TION
PLAN MONITORING & EVALUATION Low Emission Land Use Planning
1.1. Regulatory Assessments 1.2. Stakeholder Engagement 1.3.
Planning & Development Goals & Objectives 2.1. Environment,
Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2. Understanding Historic Land
Use Change 2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1. Modeling
Future Trends 3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction 3.3.
Scenario Assessment
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Rules of the Game Time/Space Drivers of Change Goal / Objective
NOW Past Trend / Current Condition BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 + / - M&E
Slide 6
At the end of Section 3, learners will be able to: Recognize
and apply the concept of modeling an environment including climate
change Develop a baseline assessment with the BAU scenario
including climate change Identify series of future potential
scenarios and analyze their impacts (socio-economic, environmental)
CLIMATE CHANGE
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Relevant aspects Understand Quantify Visualize Operationalize
Scientific discipline Conceptual Model Mathematics Model Graphic
Model Operational Model
Average precipitation in the lower Mekong River basin
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Variability: The quality, state, or degree of being variable or
changeable. Measure of variability: How much the performance of the
group deviates from the mean or median.
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Uncertainty: The lack of certainty or a state of having limited
knowledge Measurement of Uncertainty: A set of possible states or
outcomes
Slide 16
In the context of Climate change and Land use management, what
are the components of uncertainty? Economic Social Environmental
Institutional
Slide 17
What are the common points and the differences between these
terms and how would it influence a model? Variability
Uncertainty
Slide 18
Current state, threats and future state of deforestation in
East Kalimantan, Indonesia (A) Protected in relation to the area
deforested (red) between 1997 and 2003. (B) Threat map of future
deforestation, produced from reclassifying the SFC map and masking
out already deforested areas. (C) Simulated deforestation in
between 2003 (present) and 2013 (future at the time). Source:
http://iopscience.iop.org/http://iopscience.iop.org/
Slide 19
Slower Economic Growth Climate Change and Agriculture, Chito P.
Medina Rapid Economic Growth
Slide 20
Concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere for the three emissions
cases, 19902100
Slide 21
Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures.
They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will
unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new
factors will come into play (UNEP 2002) Scenarios Planning
Slide 22
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Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition
BASELINE Scenario Performance
Slide 24
Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition
Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario Performance
Slide 25
Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition
Reference Level (Historic Mean) Reference Level (Historic Trend)
Reference Level (Policy)
Slide 26
efficient baseline case, which assumes that all resources are
employed efficiently; and business-as-usual baseline case, which
assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and
no changes in policies will take place.
Slide 27
Scenario Contents Project goal Process design
Slide 28
3 key steps: Clarify purpose Lay foundation Develop and
test
Slide 29
Stakeholders involvement
Slide 30
Vivid By Xiang & Clarke Interactive Plausible
Slide 31
Does it meet the purpose of the scenarios fixed before? Does it
respond to the need of the stakeholders?
Slide 32
Time/Space Drivers of Change Goal / Objective NOW Past Trend /
Current Condition BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 + / -
Slide 33
Identification of significant impacts Measurement of benefits
Measurement of costs Net value/ Ratio of Cost-Benefit
Slide 34
We have moved through a process that allows us to determine a
set of possible future scenarios that may allow us to move away
from Business As Usual.
Slide 35
3.2 Business as Usual Baseline Construction Land Use Planning
& Climate Change 1.1 Regulatory Assessments 1.2 Stakeholder
Engagement 1.3 Planning & Development Goals & Objectives
2.1 Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2
Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3 Data & Capacity Gap
Assessment 3.1 Modeling Future Trends 3.3 Scenario Assessment
Slide 36
Modeling the interaction of climate change: water availability
and socio-economic scenarios on cereal production Chinese Academy
of Agricultural Sciences, AEA Group & University of East Anglia
http://clarklabs.org Province of Manitoba: Guide for Conducting
Municipal GHG Inventories and Forecasts in Manitoba Modeling REDD
Baselines using IDRISIs Land Change Modeler, IDRISI Focus Paper
Climate Adaptation : Risk, Uncertainty, Decision making, UKCP
Technical support, May 2013 Characterization Uncertainty for
regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation
Decision The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Clarke &
Xiang Developing a scenario development approach and the
alternative land use scenario, the case of Pakal, Benovo,
SambikerepDistrict of Surabaya City