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RD THNFO OPENS : 03 JANUARY, 2020 | NFO CLOSES : 17 JANUARY, 2020
A Machine Driven Investment Strategy
Introducing Tata Quant Fund
• Medium to Long Term Capital Appreciation.
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
* Investors should consult their financial advisors if in
doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
• Investment in equity & equity related instruments
selected based on quant model.
(An open-ended equity schemefollowing quant based investing theme)
QUANT FUND
3
Ar�ficial Intelligence enabled Computer ‘Deep Blue’ to beat World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov in a 6-game match
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN LATE 90’s
Ability to Search and evaluate 700,000 Grandmaster games
Compu�ng power to evaluate 200 million posi�ons and strategy up to 40 or more moves into the future
Ability to recognize the best move & Strategy Pa�ern
e.g. Emo�ons impacted Kasparov’s performance in the MatchFree of emo�ons
4
THE AGE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING
Did you know Google Maps uses Machine Learning at its core to let you know about
§ Traffic condi�ons &§ Es�mated �me to reach your
des�na�on
§ Define pr ice surge hours by predic�ng the rider demand
Did you know Ride apps use Machine Learning at its core to
§ Best routes to minimize the detours
Machine Learning!
Have you ever wondered how does your favourite Music App iden�fy what kind of songs you like?
5
USE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE/MACHINE LEARNING HELP IN INVESTMENT PROCESS
Inconsistent processing &
inferencing of diverse
informa�on
Por�olio process for Investor
so much to think
Large universe of stocks
Company data
High volume
High velocity
Industry data
Short / long term trends
Interna�onal markets
Macro economic factors
Socio Poli�cal News
Quant Strategy - consistent, high velocity informa�on processing & structured decisioning
Secure large market impac�ng datasets
Employ sta�s�cs to iden�fy hidden pa�erns and correla�ons
Build sta�s�cal models to drive Quant investment strategy”
Run comprehensive model tes�ng for different real life scenarios
Create framework that evaluates and manages Quant Model’s predic�on accuracy over �me
Learn
Update
Feedback
6
Fund with an ac�ve mul� factor investment model. Embedded with Ar�ficial Intelligence modules that
dynamically change factor strategies basis prevailing market condi�ons
(An open-ended equity schemefollowing quant based investing theme)
QUANT FUND
Key Highlights
§ The Fund would invest in stocks which form part of S&P BSE 200 or Equity Deriva�ve Segment stocks
§ Fund aims to
§ Consistently achieve be�er returns than the index
§ Avoid nega�ve absolute returns
§ Use factor Strategies viz. Value, Quality, Alpha for objec�ve stock selec�on & por�olio alloca�on
§ Periodically rebalance on the basis of latest economic & market informa�on. This helps in improving por�olio performance and
mi�gate risk
§ Embedded Machine Learning modules in the investment process so that the factor selec�on framework evolve as the market
changes
7
UNDERSTANDING TATA QUANT FUND STRATEGY LANDSCAPE
Stocks from BSE 200 & Equity Deriva�ve Segment stocks classified
into various stock categories like Value, Quality & Alpha
Analyze and Evaluate Past Economic and Market data
Classifica�on of Stocks
Create Op�mal Por�olio
Es�mate Market
Direc�on
Hedge/Buy Op�mal Por�olio
Another Machine Learning algorithm used to predict direc�on (up / down)
of each candidate por�olio.
Analysis of Past Economic data like GDP, Interest rates etc. and Market condi�ons
like index returns
Machine Learning algorithm used to predict the factor combina�on
that will outperform in forthcoming month.
The model recommends taking hedged posi�on or buy
Recommended Por�olio
8
TATA QUANT FUND – THE LANDSCAPE SIMPLIFIED
IMAGINE YOU ARE PLANNING A STRATEGY FOR A CRICKET MATCH
Let’s see what you must look while planning a strategy to win the match
Match Informa�on
Weather Condi�ons
Pitch Condi�ons
Opposi�on Team
Historical winning scores
Team Combina�on
There are many possible combina�on of players to choose from who could win in different scenarios and condi�ons
Number of Batsmen Number of Fast Bowlers
Number of Spin BowlersNumber of All Rounders
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TATA QUANT FUND – THE LANDSCAPE SIMPLIFIED
MACRO CONDITION ANALYSIS
Let’s see what you must look at while planning a strategy to win the match
Playing Condi�ons Analysis Investment condi�ons Analysis
Sunny, rainy or overcast Condi�ons favoring bowlers or BatsmenWeather
Condi�ons
Pitch Condi�ons
Grassy, Wet pitch and Hard pitch favoring Batsmen or Fast bowlers or Spinners
Opposi�on Team
Teams which have done well under similar condi�ons or Track record of Teams
GDP Growth rate, Infla�on, Interest rates indica�ng favorable condi�ons for equity markets Economic
Condi�ons
Category of stocks which perform well under prevailing market condi�ons and outlook
Factors of winning stocks
GoodValue
High Quality
StrongMomentum
Low Volatility
Markets at fair valua�on, or Bubble zone sugges�ng to invest or not
Equity Market Condi�ons
10
SELECTION PROCESS
Let’s see how you would select players for your Team
Selectors look at Na�onal Talent pool across the Country to choose players from
Selec�on of Players Selec�on of Stocks
S& P BSE 200 & Equity Deriva�ve Segment stocks
Alpha Stocks Value Stocks Quality Stocks
Alpha-Quality Stocks
Value-Quality Stocks
Batsman Fast Bowler Spin Bowler
All Rounders
Team Combina�ons (TC)
11
TEAM AND PORTFOLIO BUILD UP
Let’s see how you would Prepare Match Strategy
Match Strategy Investment Strategy
Win improves the
probability of leading the match strategy
Match Toss
Loss Prepare Strategy
to restrict the Opposi�on Team
Aim to Select Op�mal Por�olio Combina�on of Alpha, Value and Quality stocks
Aim to Select Best Team Combina�on ofBatsmen, All Rounders and Bowlers
Investment strategy of Quant Funds are essen�ally rule-based, driven by algorithms developed basis historical rela�ons of mul�ple factors with stock price movements. One of the risks in a quant-based model would be the �me taken by the algorithm to adapt to new development or change in how certain factors influence market or stock dynamics. The success of the model is based on systema�c investment approach and therefore it may not be able to leverage short term opportuni�es available in the market from �me to �me. Another risk that can emanate from a rule based systema�c investment strategy would be the inability to perfectly �me the market which might impact performance of the fund in the short term. There is no guarantee that the Quant model will generate higher returns as compared to the benchmark.
BullishInvest in the
Best Fit Por�olio
BearishHedge or
Conserva�ve Por�olioPredic�on of
Market Direc�on
12
FACTOR STRATEGIES USED IN THE QUANT MODEL
ROCE – Return on Capital Employed • ROE – Return on Equity • EPS – Earnings Per Share • D/E – Dividend/Earnings • P/E – Price to Earnings
Linear combina�on of 4 parameters:PE, P/B, RoCE, Div Yield
Combina�on of 7 parameters ofValue and Quality
Combina�on of 3 Parameters:RoE, D/E, EPS growth variability
Single Factor Alpha
Value
Value Quality
QualityQualityAlpha
Combina�on of 4 Parameters from Quality & Alpha
13
HOW DO WE CLASSIFY PORTFOLIO STRATEGY?
Alpha
Based on Stocks Jensen Alpha
Quality
Based on Stocks Fundamental StrengthValue
Based on Return on Capital and Rela�ve valua�on scores
Value Por�olio is created based on stocks score on ROCE (Return on Capital Employed), Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B) and Dividend yield (D/P) parameters
Alpha score is calculated for all securi�es forming part of Scheme universe based on the stock’s Jensen Alpha score over Ni�y 50 Index over a period of 1 year.
SELECTION
WEIGHTS
Quality Por�olio is a combina�on of stocks with high scores on Return on Equity (ROE), Debt-to Equity (D/E) ra�o and Earning Per Share (EPS) growth variability in the previous 5 years
Stocks with the highest scores have the maximum weight
Based on the factor score, stocks are selected
14
MACHINE LEARNING – THE COMPLEXITY BEHIND THE SIMPLICITY
Por�olio Strategy Selec�on01
Evaluates which factor Strategy (Alpha, Value & Quality etc.) worked in a Macro scenario and select an op�mal por�olio with a combina�on of top ranked stocks within the factor strategy.
Invest or Hedge Decision
Evaluates whether the Macro condi�ons and various strategy scenarios favor Factor strategy investment or may lead to fall in por�olio performance.
Based on the evalua�on, the Model makes the Buy or Hedge (Current por�olio) decision
02
15
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND EMOTION FREE INVESTING
Machine learning avoids the pi�alls of emo�onal bias in Investment decision making as the en�re process is extremely objec�ve and Compu�ng based
BiasConfirma�on
Examples of Behavioral biases affec�ng investment decisions
If an investor believes that a stock, he has invested into will move up then he will keep looking for signals or informa�on which confirms to his belief.
Sunk Cost Fallacy Bias
Biases Tendencies Example
Regret Aversion Bias
A�er losing more than 70% of his stock value, the investor con�nues to hold the stock instead of exi�ng and inves�ng the same in quality stocks with good prospects.
A stock has earned in 3x mul�ple for the investor however, he prefers not to book the profit with tendency that he want to avoid regret selling it early in case the stock price moves up further
Tendency of people to con�nue to hold a losing stock with a fear of booking a loss even when the probability of recovering the lost amount is bleak
Tendency of people to not sell their profitable stock posi�on with a fear that he may lose further upside if it happens in the stock which he may regret
Tendency of people to favor informa�on that confirms their preexis�ng beliefs or hypothesis
16
IS THIS ANOTHER RULES BASED INVESTMENT STRATEGY?
Rules Based Investment Model Machine Learning based Investment Model
Rigidity of Rules of Selec�onFlexibility in terms of selec�on of Op�mal por�olio Strategy
Model learns from new economic and market condi�ons and makes its own decision about the Op�mal Por�olio
Does not adapt and learn from new emerging market situa�ons
NFO Dates NFO OPENS: 3rd January, 2020 • NFO CLOSES: 17th January, 2020
Scheme Name TATA QUANT FUND
Investment Objec�ve The investment objec�ve of the scheme is to generate medium to long-term capital
apprecia�on by inves�ng in equity and equity related instruments selected based on a
quan�ta�ve model (Quant Model).
Type of Scheme An open-ended equity scheme following quant-based inves�ng theme
Min. Investment Amount Rs. 5,000/- and in mul�ple of Re.1/- therea�er
Addi�onal Investment: Rs 1,000/- and in mul�ple of Re 1/- therea�er.
Fund Manager Sailesh Jain
Exit Load: 1% of the applicable NAV, if redeemed/switched out on or before expiry of 365
days from the date of allotment.
Benchmark S&P BSE 200 TRI
Load Structure Entry Load (During NFO): N.A.
However, there is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objec�ve of the Scheme
will be achieved. The scheme does not assure or guarantee any returns.
17
FUND DETAILS
18
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully
Tata Quant Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Medium to Long Term Capital Appreciation.
• Investment in equity & equity related instruments selected based on
quant model.
* Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about
whether the product is suitable for them.
DISCLAIMERS
Thank You
Call: 022 - 6282 7777 (Monday to Saturday 9:00 am to 5:30 pm)
www.tatamutualfund.com | Contact your Financial Advisor