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Introducing alien ecosystem engineers to Round Island, Mauritius
Species lost – 2 giant tortoises Role – dispersal of herbivore adapted seeds
Surrogate species Aldabra Giant Tortoise Madagascar radiated tortoise
250 kg 16 kg
New topic Climate change and conservation
The main message
Climate
Humans
Biodiversity
Climate change is unequivocal Natural and human systems have been impacted Adaptation and mitigation are necessary Biodiversity/conservation plays a role in
climate regulation Biodiversity/conservation is central to
tackling climate change
Outline for Climate change and conservation
Overview Recent changes to the climate Physical feedback loops Future Climate Change Biological Impacts Ecosystem feedback loops Conservation Implications
Climate shifts are due to change in the retention and distribution of solar energy
Carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour are important in maintaining the current energy balance
Svante Arrhenius (1896) predicted “the emission of CO2 due to the combustion of coal will eventually warm the world”
Air bubbles in ice give
CO2 conc’n of atmosphere at time of ice deposition
Ratio of 18O2 and 16O2 can be used to calculate temperature at time ice is formed
Record dating back 740,000 years
CO2 levels and global temperatures are correlated Current levels (360ppm) are far higher than “natural” levels
CO2 levels and mean global temperature have increased faster since the Industrial Revolution Climate change scientists agree heating is largely due to human induced increases in greenhouse gas concentrations
Changes in temperature over the last 30 years
Changes in precipitation over the last 100 years
Snow, ice and hydrological change
1979
2003
Snow, ice and hydrological change
Glacier National Park – glaciers decline by 70% - gone by 2020
Mount Kenya and Kilimanjaro - decline by 60%
Swiss Alps - decline by 40% since 1850 - gone by 2050?
Grinnell Glacier 1938 1981 1995 2005
Changes in sea level over the last 100 years
Feedback loops
The surface ocean has absorbed nearly half of the increased CO2 levels due to the burning of fossil fuels
The ocean is becoming more acidic 0.1 pH unit since 1750
Continued acidification will reduce the ability of the ocean to take up CO2
Feedback loops
Permafrost soils act as a giant carbon sink approx . 1000 billion tons of Carbon
Warming will thaw the tundra
Melting permafrost will release frozen methane and allow decomposition of frozen plant material
The additional CH4 and CO2 will increase warming
Feedback loops
Warming will melt sea ice and promote growth of shrubs in the arctic
Puddles and shrubs have different albedo (reflectance) than ice and tundra
Puddles and shrubs will warm up rather than reflect UV
Warm puddles and shrubs will increase ice melt and further shrubification
C02 emissions will rise at least until 2040
All scenarios predict C02 levels will continue to rise until the turn of the century
Predicted global temperature and sea levels
What happens if the world warms by 4C?
So
IPCC predicts a rise in temp of 2 to 6.4 C by 2100
Bob Watson (Chair IPCC) the world should “prepare for 4C of warming”
What happened the last time?
55 million years ago Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Event
5-6C increase
Tropical forests in ice free polar regions Acidified oceans led to vast die-off Sea levels rose 100m higher than todays Desert from South Africa to Europe
What happens if the world warms by 4C?
India Bangladesh Pakistan shorter fierce asian monsoon drought
swUS, Central America, China, South America dried rivers and exhasution of aquifers deglaciation lack of freshwater
Canada/Siberia - reliable precipitation - shelter and food for the world?