Intro Aggregate

8/13/2019 Intro Aggregate

1/23

ISE 140 Term Project

December 10, 2012

ISE 140

By: Denny Laines, Dina Verdin, Wayne Odd, Ashley Lindsay


2/23

INTRODUCTION

This re!r" #as d!ne "! r!$ide a s%mmary !& "he me"h!d!l!'ies %sed "! imr!$e "he

Vi(in's) *r!d%c"i!n Di$isi!n+ Basic areas !& imr!$emen"s "! "he &irm incl%ded &!recas"in',

r!d%c"i!n caaci"y lannin' and &inally sched%lin'+ In each !& "hese ca"e'!ries, m%l"ile

me"h!d!l!'ies #ere analy-ed "! achie$e a seci&ic '!al+

In e.l!rin' h!# "! imr!$e &!recas"in' &!r "he &irm, "he '!al !& a /AD /ean Abs!l%"e

De$ia"i!n "!lerance !& less "han 10 #as desired+ All ar!aches incl%din' m!$in' a$era'e,

e.!nen"ial sm!!"hin' and seas!nal m!delin' #ere "es"ed &!r each r!d%c"+ The seci&ic &!recas"

m!del ch!sen &!r each r!d%c" has been $alida"ed "! ma"ch reas!nably cl!se "! "he las" "en #ee(s

demand &!r "he 'i$en r!d%c"+

The r!d%c"i!n a''re'a"e lannin' me"h!d!l!'ies e.l!red &!r each r!d%c" #ere "!

&!ll!# ei"her a chase !r le$el lan+ In s!me ins"ances, d%e "! "he "ye !& &!recas"in' er&!rmed,

"he lan &!r "he 'i$en r!d%c" #as !ne in "he same+ ere "he desire #as "! achie$e a rela"i$ely

l!# c!s"+ This #as &!ll!#ed by caaci"y lannin' "! r!$ide an e$en &%r"her brea(d!#n !& "!"al

c!s" &!r each r!d%c"+ 3inally, a sched%lin' me"h!d!l!'y #as crea"ed and sim%la"ed !n

*r!/!del "! s%ccess&%lly minimi-e cycle "imes+

Forecasting

One !& "he &irs" "hin's "ha" sh!%ld be d!ne is "! 'rah "he da"a 'i$en &!r each r!d%c"+

The da"a #as 'rahed "! !bser$e #he"her "here #as a "rend, a seas!nal "rend, !r i& i" #as rand!m+

This is im!r"an" #hen "ryin' "! ch!!se #hich &!recas"in' me"h!d "! %se "ha" #!%ld r!d%ce a

/ean Abs!l%"e De$ia"i!n /AD n! 'rea"er "han "en+ 3!recas"in' #as needed s! "ha" "he ne."

&i$e #ee(s !& demand c!%ld be redic"ed &!r c!s"in' %r!ses !& man%&ac"%rin'+ One !& "he

easies" me"h!ds !& &!recas"in' is /!$in' A$era'e, s! !%r &irs" s"ra"e'y #as "! %se m!$in'


3/23

a$era'e !n all !& "he r!d%c"s "ha" didn)" ha$e a "rend !n "he 'rah and i& "ha" didn)" #!r( #e

%sed a simle e.!nen"ial sm!!"hin' me"h!d+ 3!r "he res" !& "he r!d%c"s, #e %sed ei"her

e.!nen"ial sm!!"hin' "rend, #i"h!%" "rend and #i"h seas!nali"y, !r #i"h "rend and seas!nali"y+

We #ere able "! &!recas" e$ery r!d%c" #i"h a /AD l!#er "han "en and %se "he &!recas"s &!r

a''re'a"e lannin'+

Product 1 (MAD= 6)

History

Horizon

Demand

9-PeriodMoving

Avg.Forecast rror

11 186 712 187 113 187 914 187 1015 186 616 187 5

17 187 518 188 319 187 1320 187 1

21 18722 18723 18724 18725 187

Product ! (MAD= ")

= 0.8= 0.3

Histo

ryHorizon

Demand #ase $rend Forecastrror

9 70 146.00-

0.2165

10 160 157.16 3.20 311 183 178.47 8.63 512 200 197.42 11.73 3


4/23

13 215 213.83 13.13 114 197 202.99 5.94 615 170 177.79 -3.40 816 110 122.88 -18.86 1317 100 100.80 -19.82 118 105 100.20 -14.06 519 177 158.83 7.75 1820 215 205.32 19.37 10

21 215 23422 215 254

23 215 273

24 215 29225 215 312

Product % (MAD= 1)

HistoryHorizon

Demand&'. mooting

ForecastForecast

rror

9 70 74 410 88 89 1

11 65 65 012 43 43 013 68 67 114 84 83 115 61 61 016 44 41 317 65 64 118 82 80 219 59 58 120 44 41 3

21 6322 7923 5924 41

25 61

Product * (MAD= +)

= 0.2

HistoryHorizon

Demand&'. mooting

ForecastForecast rror

10 37 34

11 39 35 4


5/23

12 39 36 3

13 40 36 4

14 41 37 4

15 44 38 6

16 44 39 5

17 45 40 518 46 41 5

19 50 42 8

20 53 44 9

21 45

22 4523 45

24 45

25 45

Product + (MAD= 9)

History

Horizon

Demand

1,-PeriodMoving Avg.

Forcast

rror

11 64 52 12

12 54 52 2

13 48 52 4

14 55 53 2

15 67 52 15

16 45 54 9

17 76 52 24

18 66 52 14

19 53 53 0

20 65 52 13

21 53

22 53

23 53

24 53

25 53

Production Panning

As s"a"ed be&!re, "he r!d%c"s &!ll!#ed ei"her a chase !r le$el r!d%c"i!n lan based !n

res%l"s &r!m "he c!rres!ndin' &!recas" m!del+ The '!al #e achie$ed here #as "! ma(e small


6/23

ad%s"men"s %sin' eml!ymen" le$els "! red%ce "!"al c!s" ye" s"ill r!$ide s%&&icien" r!d%c"i!n

le$els+

3!r *r!d%c" !ne, "he le$el and chase lan are "he same, d%e "! "he e$en ra"e !& r!d%c"i!n

ma"chin' "he &!recas"ed demand+ By hirin' se$en #!r(ers &!r "he ne." &i$e eri!ds, #e #ere

able "! ha$e minimal %nder"ime and n! bac(l!'+ Wi"h a b%l( !& "he c!s" d%e "! eml!ymen", "he

"!"al c!s" &!r "his r!d%c" came "! 5264(+

3!r *r!d%c" "#!, "he le$el lan #as ch!sen "! be "he be""er !"i!n #i"h r!%'hly 517,000

sa$in's c!mared "! "he chase lan+ irin'8&irin' c!s" #as sacri&iced &!r h!ldin' c!s" and hi'her

%nder"ime c!s"+ The la""er c!s" "h!%'h, s"ill ne""ed a l!#er "!"al c!s" !& 5294(+

*r!d%c" "hree, similarly, sacri&iced bac(!rder c!s" &!r minimally hi'her %nder"ime c!s"+

The chase lan #as ch!sen #i"h a ne" sa$in's !& r!%'hly 51+( and a "!"al c!s" !& 57+(+

*r!d%c" &!%r, !nce a'ain "he chase and le$el lan #ere !ne in "he same+ Wi"h minimal

%nder"ime c!s" and n! bac(l!' !r endin' in$en"!ry, "!"al c!s" #as es"ima"ed "! be ab!%" 5;;+4(+

Las"ly, *r!d%c" &i$e als! had an e


7/23

Sub-Cost:Hiring Sub-

Cost:$140,000.

00Regulr Sub-

Cost:$93,500.0

0

$ota 0ost=7!%*8,"

+.,,

Product !

eve Pan ate 273

!1 !! !% !* !+

#eg 2nv 0 39 58 58 39Production 273 273 273 273 273Forecast 234 254 273 292 312nd 2nv 39 58 58 39 0#ac3og 0 0 0 0 0

4or3ers 10 10 10 10 10Possi5enits

300 300 300 300 300

ndertime 27 27 27 27 27

Undertime Sub-Cost: $675.00

Hiring Sub-Cost:

$200,000.00

Holding Sub-Cost: $2,037.00

Regulr Sub-Cost: $61,425.00

UndertimeCost !5"00 /unit $ota 0ost=

7!6*81%".,,

Hiring Cost!20#000"0

0 /worker

HoldingCost !10"50 /unit/wk

BackorderCost !54"00 /unit/wk

RegularCost !45"00 /unit

Product %0ase Pan

!1 !! !% !* !+

#eg 2nv 0 0 0 0 0Production 63 79 59 41 61Forecast 63 79 59 41 61nd 2nv 0 0 0 0 0#ac3og 0 0 0 0 0


8/23

4or3ersneeded 3 3 3 3 34or3ers

Hired 0 0 0 0 04or3ers

Fired 0 0 0 0 0

Possi5enits

90 90 90 90 90

ndertime 27 11 31 49 29


Hiring Sub-Cost:$60,000.

00

Regulr Sub-Cost:$26,967.

00

$ota 0ost=7"8",!

.,,

Product 4eve/0ase Pan ate 45

!1 !! !% !* !+

#eg 2nv 0 0 0 0 0

Production 45 45 45 45 45

Forecast 45 45 45 45 45

nd 2nv 0 0 0 0 0

#ac3og 0 0 0 0 0

4or3ers needed 2 2 2 2 2Possi5e nits

Produced60 60 60 60 60

ndertime 15 15 15 15 15Undertime Sub-

Cost: $375.00


00


00

$ota 0ost=7++8*+,

.,,

Product 5

eve/0ase Pan ate 53

!1 !! !% !* !+

#eg 2nv 0 0 0 0 0

Production 53 53 53 53 53

Forecast 53 53 53 53 53

nd 2nv 0 0 0 0 0

#ac3og 0 0 0 0 0

4or3ers needed 2 2 2 2 2


9/23

Possi5e nitsProduced

60 60 60 60 60

ndertime 7 7 7 7 7



00


00

$ota 0ost=7"*86!+

.,,

ateria! Re"uirements P!anning

A&"er a''re'a"e lannin' #e #ere able "! crea"e !%r /a"erial >erder 147 187 87 87 87


10/23

eease: = +,,8 $ = 18 = +u5-Product * Period

21 22 23 24 25

;rosserdereease 500 0 500 0 0

Product !

Q = 500u5-Product % Period

!1 !! !% !* !+;rosserdereease 500 500 500 1000 500

Q = 500, ! = 1,"" = 5

u5-Product * Period!1 !! !% !* !+

;rosserdereease 1500 1000 1000 1000 0


11/23

Product %

Q = 500, !=1,""=5

u5-Product * Period!1 !! !% !* !+

;rosserder

eease 500 0 0 0 0

Q = #ied 2, ! = 1, "" = 15

u5-Product ! Period

!1 !! !% !* !+

;ross erdereease 66 0 41 61 0

Q = 4, ! = 0, "" =10

u5-Product 1 Period

!1 !! !% !* !+

;ross e


12/23

Panned >rderecei't 92 82 122Panned >rdereease 92 0 82 122 0

Product *

Q = #ied 2, ! = 1, "" = 15

u5-Product ! Period

!1!! !% !* !+

;rosserdereease 0 0 90 0 0

Q = 4, ! = 0, "" = 10

u5-Product 1 Period

!1!! !% !* !+

;rosserdereease 5

45 225 45 45

Product +

Q = 4, ! = 0,"" = 10

u5-Product 1 Period

!1 !! !% !* !+;rosse


13/23

ecei't

PA#/ +, 10 10 10 10 10etrerderecei't 13 53 53 53 53Panned >rdereease 13 53 53 53 53Q = 500, ! = 0,"" = 0

u5-Product % Period

!1 !! !% !* !+;rosserdereease 500 0 0 0 0Q = 500, ! =1, ""= 5

u5-Product * Period

!1 !! !% !* !+;rosserdereease 500 0 0 0 0

Sc#edu!ing

In "his r!ec", "he sched%lin' me"h!d!l!'y has sh!#n "ha" "he machinin' !era"i!n

#!r(s be""er i& is di$ided by s"a"i!ns and s%b=r!d%c"s+ 3r!m "he caaci"y lannin', "he am!%n"

!& s%b=r!d%c"s needed "! ma(e a #h!le r!d%c" #as "!"aled, di$ided in ba"ches and "hen


14/23

m%l"ilied by "he resec"i$e se"=% "ime and r!cessin' "ime+ An in"eres"in' !in" "! analy-e is

"ha" "he am!%n" !& machines !b"ained &r!m "he caaci"y lannin' and "he am!%n" !& "he

machines !b"ained in "he sim%la"i!n, did n!" ma"ch+ These n%mbers did n!" ma"ch d%e "! "he

c!nsidera"i!ns %" in each !ne !& "he si"%a"i!ns+ Wi"h "he hel !& "he sim%la"i!n #e #ere able "!

!b"ain a rec!mmended n%mber !& machines "a(in' in c!nsidera"i!n "he %"ili-a"i!n ercen"a'e !&

each machine and !ssible b!""lenec(s deendin' !n "he caaci"y !& "he am!%n" !& machines

%"ili-ed+

An!"her !in" #!r"h n!"in' is "ha" "he sim%la"i!n #as r!'rammed "! %"ili-ed 3I3O a r%le

meanin' "ha" "he &irs" i"em in is "he &irs" i"em !%", %"ili-ed+ This r%le hels %"ili-e s%b=r!d%c"s as

s!!n as "hey are machined and n!" delay "he #h!le machinin' r!cess+

3inally, "he ba"ch si-e calc%la"ed is 10+ This ba"ch si-e all!#s a red%ced cycle "ime and an

!"im%m %"ili-a"i!n !& "he s"a"i!ns machines+ The ercen"a'e %"ili-a"i!n r!d%ced in "his

sim%la"i!n is ar!%nd 7;@ and b!""lenec(s in s"a"i!n n%mber &!%r+

Conc!usion

%n &on&'u(ion, t)e *et)od( t)+t we u(ed ie'ded our roe&t +n e&e''ent

w)i&) w+( e'ow ten +nd t)+t w+( +n e((enti+' +rt o t)e roe&t. oin er+e

w+( + ri*e &)oi&e or t)e ore&+(tin *et)od, w)i&) *+de t)e &o(t or t)e 'ee'

+nd &)+(e '+n( r+&ti&+'' identi&+'. ter &o*'etin t)e P +nd P we )+d

enou) inor*+tion to run t)e (i*u'+tion +nd &o*'ete it (u&&e((u''. #or our in+'

re(u't( we +rried +t $596740.50 or our u'ti*+te tot+' &o(t or one week o

rodu&tion, w)i&) took into &on(ider+tion t)e &)e+e(t +re+te, '+n +nd t)e

'e+(t +*ount o *+&)ine( needed to run t)e rodu&tion.

Aendices


15/23

Ca$acit% Re"uirements P!anning&

eek 21

Produ&t 1 Produ&t 2 Produ&t 3 Produ&t 4 Produ&t 5 !ot+'"u-

Produ&t 1 147 0 92 5 13 257"u-Produ&t 2 0 0 66 0 0 66

"u-Produ&t 3 0 500 0 0 500 1000

"u-Produ&t 4 500 1500 500 0 500 3000

"t+tion 1

2400 own or13.71428

571 ti*e( in 2400 *in!i*e it w+(

down

205.7142

857 *in!i*e it w+(n:t

down2194.285

714 ;

"t+tion 2

2400 own or9.230769

231 ti*e( in 2400 *in!i*e it w+(

down184.6153


down2215.384

615 ;

"t+tion 3

2400 own or13.71428

571 ti*e( in 2400 *in!i*e it w+(

down205.7142


down2194.285

714 ;

"t+tion 4

2400 own or

9.230769

231 ti*e( in 2400 *in!i*e it w+(down

184.6153846 *in

!i*e it w+(n:tdown

2215.384615 ;

"t+tion 52400 own or 6.857142 ti*e( in 2400 *in


16/23

857!i*e it w+(

down205.7142


down2194.285

714 ;

"t+tion 6

2400 own or26.66666

667 ti*e( in 2400 *in!i*e it w+(

down266.6666


down2133.333

333 ;

"t+tion 7

2400 own or13.71428

571 ti*e( in 2400 *in

!i*e it w+(down

205.7142857 *in

!i*e it w+(n:tdown

2194.285714 ;

?+t&) "i@e 10

"t+tion 1"u-Produ&t

1"u-Produ&t

2"u-Produ&t

3"u-

Produ&t 4 !ot+'

Pro&e((in 3341 660 0 21000

"etu !i*e 0

!ot+' 3341 660 0 210002500

1

+&)ine Aeeded 11

5

"t+tion 2"u-Produ&t

1"u-Produ&t

2"u-Produ&t

3"u-

Produ&t 4 !ot+'

Pro&e((in 3341 660 17000

"etu !i*e

!ot+' 3341 660 17000 0

2100

1+&)ine Aeeded 9

10

"t+tion 3"u-Produ&t

1"u-Produ&t

2"u-Produ&t

3"u-

Produ&t 4 !ot+'

Pro&e((in 19000

"etu !i*e


17/23

!ot+' 0 0 19000 01900

0

+&)ine Aeeded 9

5

"t+tion 4 "u-Produ&t1 "u-Produ&t2 "u-Produ&t3 "u-Produ&t 4 !ot+'

Pro&e((in 11000 30000

"etu !i*e

!ot+' 0 0 11000 300004100

0

+&)ine Aeeded 19

10

"t+tion 5

"u-Produ&t

1

"u-Produ&t

2

"u-Produ&t

3 "u-Produ&t 4 !ot+'Pro&e((in 0 0 12000 45000

"etu !i*e 0 0

!ot+' 0 0 12000 450005700

0

+&)ine Aeeded 26

15

"t+tion 6"u-Produ&t

1"u-Produ&t

2"u-Produ&t

3"u-

Produ&t 4 !ot+'

Pro&e((in 0 0 0 24000

"etu !i*e 0 0 0

!ot+' 0 0 0 240002400

0

+&)ine Aeeded 11

5

"t+tion 7"u-Produ&t

1"u-Produ&t

2"u-Produ&t

3"u-

Produ&t 4 !ot+'

Pro&e((in 0 0 9000 36000

"etu !i*e 0 0

!ot+' 0 0 9000 36000

4500

0+&)ine Aeeded 21

10

Com$arison o' cost (it# suggested num)er o' mac#ines according to CRP and num)er o'

mac#ines according to o$timum uti!i*ation+


18/23

eu'+r o(t eu'+r o(t


19/23

"t+tion 6 &o(t "t+tion 6 &o(t

underti*e 0 0 underti*e 0*+&)ine(ou)t 6 15625

*+&)ine(ou)t 0

! 15625 !

"t+tion 7 &o(t "t+tion 7 &o(t

underti*e 0 0 underti*e 0*+&)ine(ou)t 11

26269.53125

*+&)ine(ou)t 0

!26269.531

25 !


20/23

Proode! Simu!ation

o&+tion "u**+r

"&en+rio A+*e

"&)edu'ed !i*e;Br> ++&it

!ot+'ntrie(

C


21/23

e 2.7

?+(e'ine

"t+tion2.8 40.00 1.00 9.00 62.42

?+(e'ine

"t+tion2.9 40.00 1.00 8.00 59.92

?+(e'in

e "t+tion 3 480.00 12.00 131.00 87.30?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.1 40.00 1.00 11.00 89.58

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.10 40.00 1.00 11.00 86.88

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.11 40.00 1.00 12.00 89.25

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.12 40.00 1.00 11.00 86.88

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.2 40.00 1.00 11.00 86.88

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.3 40.00 1.00 10.00 84.79

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.4 40.00 1.00 11.00 86.88

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.5 40.00 1.00 11.00 87.25

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.6 40.00 1.00 10.00 86.33

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.7 40.00 1.00 11.00 87.25

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.8 40.00 1.00 10.00 86.33

?+(e'ine

"t+tion3.9 40.00 1.00 12.00 89.25

?+(e'in

e "t+tion 4 480.00 12.00 228.00 92.50?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.1 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.10 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.11 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.12 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.2 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.3 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.4 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.5 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.6 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.7 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'in "t+tion 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50


22/23

e 4.8

?+(e'ine

"t+tion4.9 40.00 1.00 19.00 92.50

?+(e'ine "t+tion 5 600.00 15.00 146.00 73.92?+(e'in

e

"t+tion

5.1 40.00 1.00 10.00 76.08?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.10 40.00 1.00 9.00 70.00

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.11 40.00 1.00 9.00 70.00

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.12 40.00 1.00 10.00 72.29

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.13 40.00 1.00 9.00 73.33

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.14 40.00 1.00 9.00 73.33

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.15 40.00 1.00 11.00 72.21

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.2 40.00 1.00 9.00 76.67

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.3 40.00 1.00 10.00 76.08

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.4 40.00 1.00 10.00 76.08

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.5 40.00 1.00 10.00 76.83

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.6 40.00 1.00 10.00 76.25

?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.7 40.00 1.00 10.00 73.33

?+(e'in

e

"t+tion

5.8 40.00 1.00 10.00 73.33?+(e'ine

"t+tion5.9 40.00 1.00 10.00 72.92

?+(e'ine "t+tion 6 200.00 5.00 89.00 83.87

?+(e'ine

"t+tion6.1 40.00 1.00 17.00 85.00

?+(e'ine

"t+tion6.2 40.00 1.00 18.00 83.58

?+(e'ine

"t+tion6.3 40.00 1.00 18.00 83.58

?+(e'ine

"t+tion6.4 40.00 1.00 18.00 83.58

?+(e'ine

"t+tion6.5 40.00 1.00 18.00 83.58

?+(e'ine "t+tion 7 400.00 10.00 158.00 77.86?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.1 40.00 1.00 18.00 86.92

?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.10 40.00 1.00 13.00 64.58

?+(e'in "t+tion 40.00 1.00 17.00 82.71


23/23

e 7.2

?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.3 40.00 1.00 17.00 81.04

?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.4 40.00 1.00 17.00 80.96

?+(e'in

e

"t+tion

7.5 40.00 1.00 16.00 80.83?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.6 40.00 1.00 16.00 80.75

?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.7 40.00 1.00 15.00 75.42

?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.8 40.00 1.00 15.00 75.42

?+(e'ine

"t+tion7.9 40.00 1.00 14.00 70.00

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