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![Page 1: Int'l Econ Day 3 - Montana State Universityî l í ï l î ì í ó ñ 7UDGH DQG -REV LQ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ : } ] v Æ } / v µ ] v > } ] v / u } r } u ] v P / v µ ] E } > } v P Z µ](https://reader033.dokumen.tips/reader033/viewer/2022050412/5f88ada9e7c17b295012a3d0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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International EconomicsDay 3
Douglas J YoungProfessor Emeritus – MSU
Summary Day 2-1
• Trade and Technological Advance Make us Better Off via Lower Prices/Higher Wages
• But CHANGES in Trade and Technology Result in Layoffs as Well as Opportunities
• Workers Must CHANGE Jobs, possibly by Changing Location and Skills
Summary Day 2-2• Employment and Wages have Declined
for Lower Income Americans. Causes:• Lower Demand for Less Skilled Workers
(Technology, Trade)• Lower Supply (“Willing and Able”) of Less
Skilled Workers (Disability, Health and Other Income Transfers, Lack Modern Skills, Incarceration, Unwillingness to Move, Drug Addiciton…)
• Solution? Better Education (of course)
Summary Day 2-3
• Barriers to Imports (Quotas, Tariffs, etc) Increase Domestic Prices:
• Domestic Producers Gain• Domestic Consumers Lose• Government Revenue (Tariff)• Net Loss to Country
• Barriers are Difficult to Remove because Producer Gains are Concentrated on a Few, Large, Organized Groups who Lobby Effectively
Gains & Losses from Trade Barriers - 1990
Industry Consumers -
Producer +
Net Loss Loss/Job Saved
Sugar $1.4B $0.8B $0.6B $257K
Shipping $1.8B $1.3B $0.6B $126K
Apparel $21.2B $9.9B $7.7B $51K
M Tools $0.5B $0.2B $0.4B $247K
Federal Reserve Bank St Louis 2002
Summary Day 2-4• Negotiations by Groups of Countries
covering Many Goods and Services (GATT, NAFTA, WTO) have Greatly Reduced Trade Barriers since WWII
• Commerce Clause of US Constitution Prohibits Barriers to Interstate Trade
• Negotiations have Also Facilitated Capital Flows (Next Week)
![Page 2: Int'l Econ Day 3 - Montana State Universityî l í ï l î ì í ó ñ 7UDGH DQG -REV LQ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ : } ] v Æ } / v µ ] v > } ] v / u } r } u ] v P / v µ ] E } > } v P Z µ](https://reader033.dokumen.tips/reader033/viewer/2022050412/5f88ada9e7c17b295012a3d0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
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“Buy Local”
• What is being “Imported?”• Who is the “Consumer?”• Who is the “Foreign Producer?”• Who is the “Domestic Producer?”• Who “Lobbied” the Chronicle?
Outline: Days 3 & 41. What are exchange rates?2. How do exchange rates affect trade?What have the Chinese been doing to their exchange rate? Why? What are the consequences?3. What is the Balance of Payments?4. How are Exchange Rates Determined?5. What is a International Financial Crisis
and How/Why do Crises Occur?
US – Euro Exchange Rate 1. What are Exchange Rates?
• Exchange Rates are the prices at which the monies of different countries are exchanged.
• May be quoted two ways:$1.25/€1 is the same as €0.80/$1
• That is, $1.25/€1 = 1/(€0.80/$1)
Japanese Yen per Dollar Appreciation and Depreciation
• Appreciation: Increase in the value of a currency
• Depreciation: Decrease in the value of a currency
• Note: Not only “currency” in a literal sense; most transactions are in bank deposits
![Page 3: Int'l Econ Day 3 - Montana State Universityî l í ï l î ì í ó ñ 7UDGH DQG -REV LQ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ : } ] v Æ } / v µ ] v > } ] v / u } r } u ] v P / v µ ] E } > } v P Z µ](https://reader033.dokumen.tips/reader033/viewer/2022050412/5f88ada9e7c17b295012a3d0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
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Appreciation/Depreciation 2. How do Exchange Rates Affect Trade?
• An appreciation of a country’s currency:• Makes its Exports more Expensive to
Foreigners, and • Makes Foreign goods (Imports)
Cheaper to its Residents
Car Prices - 1 Ford Focus Toyota Corolla
Exchange Rate
¥100/
$1
¥100/
$1
In US $20 K
In JPN ¥2 M
Car Prices - 2
Ford Focus Toyota Corolla
Exchange Rate
¥100/
$1
¥100/
$1
In US $20 K $20 K=2M/100
In JPN ¥2 M=20K*100
¥2 M
Car Prices - 3
Ford Focus Toyota Corolla
Exchange Rate
¥100/
$US
¥200/
$US
¥100/
$US
¥200/
$US
In US $20 K $20 K $20 K
In JPN ¥2 M ¥2 M ¥2 M
Car Prices - 4
Ford Focus Toyota Corolla
Exchange Rate
¥100/
$1
¥200/
$1
¥100/
$1
¥200/
$1
In US $20 K $20 K $20 K $10 K
In JPN ¥2 M ¥4 M ¥2 M ¥2 M
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2. How do Exchange Rates Affect Trade?
• Appreciation of a Country’s Currency:• Makes its exports more expensive to
foreigners, so exports fall• Makes foreign goods cheaper to its
residents, so imports rise• Thus, Net Exports = Exports – Imports are
negatively related to a country’s exchange rate
Net Exports – Exchange Rate
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Real
Net
Exp
orts
(% o
f RG
DP)
Real
Exc
hang
e Ra
te (1
973=
100)
Exchange Rate Net Exports
Correlation = -0.19
The Chinese – Part I
• The Chinese WERE keeping the value of their currency low 1995-2013 Their exports were less expensive to
foreigners (e.g. Chinese goods in USA) Their imports were more expensive to
them (e.g. oil imports into China) China’s trade surplus was higher than it
otherwise would be
Chinese Yuan per Dollar
International Trade and American Jobs
Douglas J. YoungProfessor Emeritus
Montana State University
Does Trade Cause Job Losses?
• Popular Idea• “If we made it
ourselves, more people would be employed.”
![Page 5: Int'l Econ Day 3 - Montana State Universityî l í ï l î ì í ó ñ 7UDGH DQG -REV LQ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ : } ] v Æ } / v µ ] v > } ] v / u } r } u ] v P / v µ ] E } > } v P Z µ](https://reader033.dokumen.tips/reader033/viewer/2022050412/5f88ada9e7c17b295012a3d0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
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Trade and Jobs in Economic Theory
• Jobs are Created in Export Industries and Lost in Import-Competing Industries
• No Long Run Effect on Employment or Unemployment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Perc
ent
of G
DP Imports
Exports
BEA
Internationalization of the US Economy
Does a Trade Deficit Cause Job Losses?
• Trade Deficit: Imports > Exports• Common Sense: “More Jobs are Lost to
Imports than are Gained from Exports”• Economics: “No, Even a Trade Deficit
Does Not Affect Employment in the Long Term”
Balance of Payments
• Current Account = Exports minus Imports plus Miscellaneous
• Capital Account = Foreign Investments in US Assets minus US Investments Abroad
• Current Account + Capital Account = 0
US Balance of Payments, 2013$Billions
Current Account Capital (Financial) Account
Exports -Imports
-462Net Capital Inflow
+389
Income & Transfers
+95Statistical Discrepancy
-24
TOTAL -367 TOTAL +366
BEA Int’l Transactions Feb 13, 2017
Why Balance?
• Suppose you buy a toaster from China for $20, i.e. ∆ Imports = $20 => ∆ US Current Account = -$20.
• What happens to the $20?• China buys $20 worth of wheat from USA
=> ∆ Exports = ∆ Imports => ∆ Net Exports = 0
• China buys $20 US Treasury Bond => ∆ Capital Inflow = +$20
![Page 6: Int'l Econ Day 3 - Montana State Universityî l í ï l î ì í ó ñ 7UDGH DQG -REV LQ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ : } ] v Æ } / v µ ] v > } ] v / u } r } u ] v P / v µ ] E } > } v P Z µ](https://reader033.dokumen.tips/reader033/viewer/2022050412/5f88ada9e7c17b295012a3d0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
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CHN Balance of Payments 2011 $Billions
Current AccountCapital (Financial)
Account
Exports -Imports
188Capital Inflow
-237
Income & Transfers
14Statistical Discrepancy
35
TOTAL 202 TOTAL -202
IMF – IFS March 20, 2013IMF
IMF
When Foreigners Invest in the US, They …
• Provide Funds to Capital Markets to Finance:
• New Structures and Equipment• New Housing
And/Or• Build Factories ThemselvesEither Way,• Domestic Investment (I) Increases
I = S + Capital Account
• I = Investment in Domestic Structures and Equipment
• S = Domestic Savings• Capital Account = Net Inflow of
Investment Funds from Abroad
US Saving, Investment, and Net Capital Inflow into the US
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Perc
ent
of G
DP
Savings Investment Net Capital Inflow
BEA
![Page 7: Int'l Econ Day 3 - Montana State Universityî l í ï l î ì í ó ñ 7UDGH DQG -REV LQ (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ : } ] v Æ } / v µ ] v > } ] v / u } r } u ] v P / v µ ] E } > } v P Z µ](https://reader033.dokumen.tips/reader033/viewer/2022050412/5f88ada9e7c17b295012a3d0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Perc
ent o
f GD
P
US Saving RatesPersonal Business Government
Capital Inflow Creates Jobs
• in Construction and Other Industries that Produce New Structures and Equipment
Two Theories
“Common Sense”• Trade Deficit =>• Fewer Jobs and/or• Higher
Unemployment
Economic• Trade Deficit =>• Change in Mix of
Jobs, but• No Change in
Employment or Unemployment
US Trade Balance
0.1
-5.7-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
1959 2006
Pe
rce
nt
of
GD
P
BEA
US Labor Market
5.5%
56.2%
4.6%
63.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Unemployment Rate Employment/Population
1959 2006
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment and Trade
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Perc
ent o
f Lab
or F
orce
or G
DP
Unemployment Rate Trade Deficit
Correlation = -0.38
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Conclusion:
• Economic Theory Wins!• Yes, trade changes the mix of jobs in the
economy, and thus increases transitional unemployment.
• But over the long run, there is no evidence that trade reduces overall employment or increases unemployment.
So, Is Everything “Peachy-Keen?”
1. Trade Deficits are a Symptom of Low Saving in the US – Too Low?
2. Some Workers and Businesses are Hurt by Trade – Just as they are hurt by changes in tastes, technology, etc.
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