Interpretation of household indicators

Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata

Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

Overview of energy efficiency policies for households: case of Brazil

Minimum levels of energy efficiency for compact

fluorescent lampsInterministerial Ordinance

N° 132

2006

Maximum levels of electricity consumption for refrigerators and freezers

Interministerial Ordinance N° 362 Minimum levels of energy efficiency for gas

stoves and ovens and air conditionersInterministerial Ordinance N° 363 and 364

PNE 2030

2007

Minimum levels of energy efficiency for water gas heaters

Interministerial Ordinance N° 298

2008 2009

Interministerial Ordinance N° 1.007 - Schedule establishes

minimum limits for incandescent lamps in order to

ban them from the market

Huge impact in the household sector!

Changes Law 9.991 60% of the amount of

PEE’s must be allocated to low income energy

efficiency projects

Targets programs for compact fluorescent

lamps Interministerial

OrdinanceN° 1.008

2010

Building labelling for household

sector

Targets programs for air conditioners, water heaters,

gas stoves and ovens and refrigerators and freezersInterministerial OrdinanceN° 323, 324, 325 and 326

PNEF – Portaria N°594

2011

Source: MME/EPE, 2013

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by end-use3. Diffusion of efficient equipment4. Domestic electrical appliances

Contents

1. Global trendsa. Trends in household consumption and main drivers (private consumption and

number of households)• Identification of homogenous periods (index) • Variation by period (%/year)

b. Specific energy consumption per household (or per dwelling): total (toe/household) and electricity(kWh per household) (trends with double vertical axis)

c. Specific electricity consumption per household vs per electrified household (if relevant)

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

energy consumption electricity consumption private consumptionnumber of households

5

1990-2005: Plano Real since 1993): increase in private consumption and energy crisis in 2001 (decrease in energy consumption, of which 20% for electricity).2005-2012 Private consumption increased faster than energy consumption. Household devices regulated by Energy Efficiency Law more available in market.

Energy consumption trends, private consumption and number of households (1990=100, Brazil)

Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption: Identification of homogeneous periods : case of Brazil

Trends in main drivers of household energy consumption: case of Brazil

6

Household energy consumption is growing moderately and much slower than household income (private consumption), especially since 2005.

The electricity consumption is following the increase in private consumption. Steady demographic pressure (increasing number of households)~ 2,6% per year

1990-2005 2005-2012 1990-20120%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

energy consumption private consumption number of households electricity consumption

Trends in energy consumption, private consumption and number of households in Brazil (%/year)

7

Energy consumption decrease due to the fall in the firewood demand. Electricity consumption increase due to the growth of private consumption and a

better income distribution.

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20120.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

toe/dwelling kWh/dwelling

Specific energy consumption per household: case of Brazil

Electricity crisis

Source: Brazilian Energy Balance (BEN), EPE

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

KWh/

hog

ar

Toe/

hog

ar

Toe/hogar Kwh/hogar

Specific energy consumption per household: case of Chile

9Morocco Bolivia Paraguay-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%Per household Per electrified household Electrification

%/y

ear

• Per electrified household, the electricity consumption increases less rapidly than per household, due to households electrification:

• In Bolivia and Paraguay, the electricity consumption per electrified household actually decreased and the increase in the electricity consumption per household is due to electrification (from 68% to 77% in Bolivia and from 83% to 100% in Paraguay).

• In Morocco, electrification explains 2/3 of the electricity consumption growth • The right indicator to monitor energy efficiency is the electricity consumption per

electrified household.

Specific electricity per household: effect of electrification

Specific electricity consumption per household: effect of electrification (2000-2010)

Bolivia: 2004-2011

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by end-use3. Diffusion of efficient equipments4. Domestic electrical appliances

Contents

2. Consumption by end-usea. Distribution of consumption by main end-use (space heating, cooking, water

heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances and lighting; pie charts in 2000 and 2010) main end-uses;

b. Specific consumption by main end-use (toe or kWh /dwelling)

c. Specific consumption for cooking per dwelling: final and useful energy (histograms for 2000 and 2010) substitution effect

d. Specific consumption for space heating (climate corrected if possible histograms for 2000 and 2010)

Distribution of energy consumption by end-use: Brazil

3% 8%

25%

29%

32%

2%

2012

water heating - LPG and gas

water heating - electricity

cooking - LPG and gas

cooking - firewood and charcoal

electricity captive use

cooling

3% 7%

24%

40%

24%

1%

2005

Increasing share of electricity captive use, because an increase in household electricity equipment ownership.

Decreasing in cooking consumption due to the participation of more efficient fuels (reduction in firewood consumption) and increased meals made outside the home.

Source: BEN, EPE

Distribution of consumption by end-use: case of Chile (2010)

Calefacción56%

Agua Caliente18%

Cocina10%

Aire acondionado

0%Artefactos eléctricos

16%

Source: estudio “Curva de conservación de la energía del sector residencial” , 2010 (encuesta de cerca de 3200 hogares con una representatividad de 95%)

14

Stable consumption with a decreasing specific consumption for cooking and an increasing use of electricity.

Households specific energy consumption by main end-use (Brazil)

Source: EPE

2005 20120.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.105 0.121

0.266 0.206

0.0410.041

Electricity Cooking Water Heating

[toe/dw]

Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Brazil

Specific consumption by end-use (toe/households)

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

0,5

CALEFACCION REFRIGERACION COCINA COCINA (Util)

2006 2010

Household specific consumption by end-use: case of Argentina

2005 20120

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

350 359

8671,128

71

100289

286

Hot water Electrical appliances Cooling Lighting

[kWh/dw]

Specific electricity consumption per household by end-use: Brazil

16

The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is mainly linked to large electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV, washing machines, air conditioning and others.

Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend.

Source: EPESource: ODYSSEE

Household specific energy consumption by main end-use (2010) (Chile)

-

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

Calefacción Agua Caliente Cocina Aire acondionado Artefactos eléctricos

Toe/

hog

arSpecific energy consumption per household by end-use: Chile

Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: Brazil

18Medener

Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily because of substitution of biomass by LPG.

Household specific energy consumption for cooking (toe/household) (Brazil)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

199020002010

Source: BIEE/EPE

Over the period 1990-2010, substitution of LPG for biomass contributed to decrease the consumption per household by 0.8%/year Since 2000, this substitution trend reversed slightly and fuel substitutions contributed to slightly increase the consumption per household for cooking.

1990-2010 2000-2010

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

final energy useful energy impact of substitution

Substitution effect = difference in variation of final and useful energy; useful energy calculated by multiplying final energy by end-use efficiency (5% efficiency for wood,; 45% for LPG)

Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: effect of substitution : case of Brazil

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by end-use3. Diffusion of efficient equipment4. Domestic electrical appliances

Contents

3. Indicators of diffusion of efficient appliances :a. Diffusion of solar water heaters:

i. annual surface of solar water heaters installed per year (m2) ii. % of households equipped*iii. production of solar heat** (ktoe/capita/ year) and energy saved

b. Penetration of efficient lamps :i. Number of CFL per householdii. % of households with one CFL

c. Penetration of efficient labels

745 GWh (avoided consumption)

Solar water heater (SWH) equipment rates: Brazil

22

Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA)

Diffusion of SWH during period 2005-2012 from 1,3% to almost 4%; Increase of installed area from 2.795 to 8.419 m2/ 1.000 inhab.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Installed m²/1.000 inhabitants % household with SWH

*% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar panel per dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /); avoided consumption= production of solar heat (calculated from the installed area of solar water heaters multiplied by the average solar output per m2) .

Household CFL diffusion : case of Tunisia

23

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Nom

bre

de

LBC

par m

énag

e

Strong increase in the average number of CFL per household from 1 in 2007 to 2.7 in 2010;

Source ANME (ratio parc installé chez les ménages sur nombre de ménages

Market share of label A and B for refrigerators (Chile )

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

A B

Diffusion of efficient labels

Market share of label A and B for lamps (Chile)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

%

A B

Diffusion of efficient labels

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Specific consumption by end-use3. Diffusion of efficient equipments4. Domestic electrical appliances

Content

4. Household electrical appliancesa. Trends in household equipment ownership: 2000 and 2010b. Distribution of electricity consumption by end-use/equipment (lighting,

refrigerator, TV, etc…) (chart pies 2000 and 2010);c. Specific consumption by appliance; d. Decomposition of electricity consumption variation by equipment/end-

use

Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of Brazil

28

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005 2012

Source: EPE

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

refrigerador lavadora TV microondas

%

1992

2002

2010

Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of Chile

Distribution of electricity consumption per household by appliance/end-use: Chile

Refrigerador30%

Iluminación16%

TV12%Cocina

6%

Computador5%

Aspiradora5%

Lavadora4%

Calefacciòn2%

Otros20%

Refrigerador Iluminación TV Cocina Computador Aspiradora Lavadora Calefacciòn0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

KWh/

hog

ar

Specific electricity consumption by type of appliance : Chile

Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances

32

The objective of the decomposition of the electricity consumption variation of a given appliance (e.g. refrigerators) between 2 years (e.g. 2000 and 2010) is to measure the effect of 3 factors:• Demographic effect : more households• Equipment ownership effect : impact of the increase in the number of

appliances• Energy savings effect: influence of a decrease in the average specific

consumption per appliance (kWh/year)

Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances : methodology

33

•Appliance consumption E= HH*TEQ*SECWith:E consumption of the applianceHH: number of householdsTEQ: equipment ownership ratio (% of households with the appliance)SEC: average specific consumption of the appliance (kWh/year)

Calculation of electricity consumption variation between year 0 and t Demographic effect =∆HH*TEQ0*SEC0

Equipment ownership effect: HH0*∆TEQ*SEC0

Energy savings effect: HHt*TEQt*∆SEC

Et - E0= sum of 3 effects

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : example of TV

34

Unite 2000 2010Number of households 1000 4416 5700% of households with TV % 82,3 94,7Specific consumption of TV kWh 292 277Total consumption of TV GWh 1062 1497

2000-2010Consumption of TV variation GWh 435Effect of TV stock increase GWh 514 of which demographic effect 309 of which equipement ownership effect 205Specific consumption effect GWh -79

-100

100

300

500Drivers of consumption variation for TV (GWh) (2000-2010)

35

The increased number of households contributed to raise the consumption by 3.757 GWh (“demographic effect” ).

Progression in the diffusion of the equipment contributed to a further 1.402 GWh increase.

However, the consumption of refrigerators only increased by 4.039 GWh and not by 5.159 GWh as energy savings contributed lower the consumption by 1.119 GWh.

Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for refrigerators in Brazil (2005-2012)

Source: EPE

Consumption varia

tion

Demographic effect

Equipment ownersh

ip effect

Energy savings e

ffect-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

GWh

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of refrigerators in Brazil

36

• The equipment ownership was the main factor for the consumption increase;• This happened due to demographic effect as well as the increase in income in the

period, attending a part of the pent-up demand for air conditioners.

Consumption varia

tion

Demographic effect

Equipment ownersh

ip effect

Energy savings e

ffect-1,000

01,0002,0003,000

GWh

Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for air conditioning in Brazil (2005-2012)

Source: EPE

Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of air conditioning in Brazil