Internet Futures

Internet Futures

Internet Futures

Here I am channelling Anders Rockstromof Telia Sonera, whose presentation atthe .se event in October 2006 had aprofound impact on me – he stated the truth so clearly and simply it was an irresistible message. More folk should hear what he has to say – so this is your opportunity!

I’ve made some changes to match whats been happening since 2006, but I think that the essential message remains the same – thanks Anders!

Geoff

Internet Futures

user s

technology

purpose:share some musings about this industry and its future

think about some of the major factors that will shape our future

user s

technology

whyThis industry has a rich history


…of making poor guesses



and being taken bysurprise!



and being taken bysurprise!

could we do a better job?

One approach:

1. Observe the situation and what’s happening

2. Believe what we see

3. Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way

(the most difficult one!)

User forces on the Market

passiv

activeYouT ube

From radio to tv to ?

From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?

Revenue Profile

Revenue Profile

How to fill the gap of theInternet’s revenue leak

Service Profile

open vswalled

garden


Service Profile

open vswalled

garden

vsinfrastruc.services

services/content


Service Profile

open vswalled

garden


services/content

vsuserproduced coach

potatoe


Service Profile

open vswalled

garden


services/content

vsuserproduced coach

potatoee.t.c


driverdimensions

driverdimensions

++

Usage

driverdimensions

++

‘’

empowered userspenetration

Usage

B u s in e s s

driverdimensions

++

‘’

empowered userspenetration

?

technology

‘Moore’-typeof pacesurplus

fast refillenabling windows

++

technology



? see it ...... seize it !

++

technology



? see it ...... seize it !

general trend

networkshared end userterminal

shift

ofpower

++

technologynew productionparadigms

technology


new productionparadigms

e.g Skype

netw a network- service‘ ‘produced outside

o f the network‘ ‘

Over the topapps

technology



e.g Skype



mobilitymulti/broad-cast

...

Over the topapps

technology



e.g Skype



mobilitymulti/broad-cast

...

Over the topapps

Content is a commodityapplication that users do rather than a valuable service that is delivered by service providers

technologysurplus enablesdivergencefor

simplicityperformance



QoS

Network VPNsIMS



no need fo rIP- convergence

QoS

Network VPNsIMS




Web enabled user generatedcontent

facebookdoppler youtube

wikipedia

QoS

Network VPNsIMS




heterogenietyconvergence complemented

with divergenceinteroperability

when there is ause fo r it

Web enabled user generatedcontent

QoS

Network VPNsIMS

facebookdoppler youtube

wikipedia

usagepenetrationwho and how


1: st gener at i onon demandpeep- hol ec/ s

passive


1: st gener at i onon demandpeep- hol ec/ s2: nd gener at i onal l ways onp/ p ser vi ces

passive


1: st gener at i onon demandpeep- hol ec/ s2: nd gener at i onal l ways onp/ p ser vi ces

3:d generationnetwork resident

passive

active

usagepenetrationInternet_paradigm(t)a penetration detour?

“pure”Internet

piggy-

backing

telepho

ny

gen-1client/

server

gen-3back tothe roo ts?

twilightzone gen

-2

ngn

ims

critical infrastructuresustainability

usage

sustainableenvironment

economysocial

(Dataföreningen)Users

have

do n t´w an t

Infrastructure roles

usagefuelling the usage growth fire


usage = scaling


bandwidthswitching

routingaddressing

usage = scaling

storage

deliveringpower heat dissipationmemory speed

silicon densitystorage efficiency

Please send heaps more….fibre routes


bandwidthswitching

routingaddressing

usage = scaling

storage



But is bigger always cheaper?



bandwidthswitching

routingaddressing

usage = scaling

storage



But is bigger always cheaper?and what happens when its not?


T echno logy Business

Usage

?

Businessmodelling

LegacyCultureRegulation

..today operatorstend to be veryhype driven ..

convergenceseemlessnet

NGN - . . .

Everone is talkingabout it

Fewhave actualexperience

.. andthe actualexperiences aremostly failures

T echno logy Business

Usage

?

Businessmodelling

new operatorroles

new businesslogics

.. involving users and other stake-holders

Businessmodelling

Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity

Low margins

No product differentiationLow barriers to entry

Deregulation and competitionValued services are overlays to the network

Businessmodelling


Low margins


Deregulation and competition

Traditional revenue streams are vaporizingWired telephony Business data products

Mobile telephonyLocal Accessmonopolies

Valued services are overlays to the network


Low margins


Deregulation and competition

Traditional revenue streams are vaporizingWired telephony Business data products

Mobile telephonyLocal Accessmonopolies

Investors are getting very nervous about telcos

Cost of capital is rising

Shareholder returns need to stay highConsumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging

No residual expertise left in-house

Valued services are overlays to the network

Businesstoday’s telco pressure points …

So where arewe heading ?

commodity utilitynetwork operation

network

high capacitypacket pushing

So where arewe heading

user - drive, productionp2p,content, ..

?


User-centric applications,not network-centric services

Value shift upthe protocol stack

network


So where arewe heading

user - drive, productionp2p,content, ..

involving userspartners

?

We are reinventing this industryon the fly

Reinvention:new

and different business models


User-centric applications,not network-centric services

Value shift upthe protocol stack

network


thank you

Documents

Internet Futures