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Wood ResourcesInternational
International Wood Fiber PriceTrends and Outlook
10th International Wood Fiber Resourcesand Trade Conference September 17-19, 2018Durban, South Africa
Håkan EkströmWood Resources International LLC
Wood ResourcesInternational
Outline
• Global Wood Fiber Price Trends
• Regional Wood Fiber Markets
• Global Trade of Wood Chips
• US Pellet Fiber Price Indices and Biomass Markets
• What’s Next?
Wood ResourcesInternational
Global Wood Fiber Prices Trends
Wood ResourcesInternational
Global Pulp Production 1997 - 2017
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Mill
ion
tons
WorldN. AmericaEuropeRest of World
Source: Wood Resource Quarterly
Change 2009-17
+7%
+15%-1%
+8%
Wood ResourcesInternational
Pulp Production by Region 2017-18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q/17 2Q/17 3Q/17 4Q/17 1Q/18 1Q/18
North America Europe Russia L. America & NZ
Source: Hawkins Wright
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Fiber Cost Share when Manufacturing Pulp
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
1Q/05
1Q/06
1Q/07
1Q/08
1Q/09
1Q/10
1Q/11
1Q/12
1Q/13
1Q/14
1Q/15
1Q/16
1Q/17
1Q/18
Wood ResourcesInternational
Global Wood Fiber Price Index 1Q/88 – 2Q/18
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1Q/88
1Q/90
1Q/92
1Q/94
1Q/96
1Q/98
1Q/00
1Q/02
1Q/04
1Q/06
1Q/08
1Q/10
1Q/12
1Q/14
1Q/16
1Q/18
US$
/odm
t
GSPI (softwood)
GHPI (hardwood)
Source: Wood Resource Quarterly
Wood ResourcesInternational
Hardwood Pulpwood Prices 1Q/98 – 2Q/18
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
1Q/98
1Q/00
1Q/02
1Q/04
1Q/06
1Q/08
1Q/10
1Q/12
1Q/14
1Q/16
1Q/18
US$
/odm
t
Brazil Finland
US South HFPI
Source: Wood Resource Quarterly
Wood ResourcesInternational
Softwood Chip Prices 1Q/98 – 2Q/18
0
50
100
150
200
1Q/98
1Q/00
1Q/02
1Q/04
1Q/06
1Q/08
1Q/10
1Q/12
1Q/14
1Q/16
1Q/18
US$
/odm
t
Canada, West Sweden
US South SFPI
Source: Wood Resource Quarterly
Wood ResourcesInternational
Regional Wood Fiber Markets
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Fiber Markets – US South
• Increased Lumber Production• Expanding Pellet Sector• Past Year’s Pulplog Prices Lowest in Four Years• Competitive Wood Raw-Material Costs• Fiber Price Outlook 2018-19: Stable
Wood ResourcesInternational
Softwood Lumber Production in the US
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1Q/99
1Q/01
1Q/03
1Q/05
1Q/07
1Q/09
1Q/11
1Q/13
1Q/15
1Q/17
Mill
ion
m3
US, West
US, South
Sources: WWPA and WRI
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Fiber Markets – W. North America
• Increased Lumber Production• Stable Wood Fiber Demand• Wood Chip Prices at Six-Year Lows• Chip Exports Stable from US, terminated in BC • Price Outlook 2018-19:
- US: Flat/Downward- Canada: Down
Wood ResourcesInternational
Residual Chip Prices in North America2005 - 2018
Source: North American Wood Fiber Review
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1Q/05
1Q/06
1Q/07
1Q/08
1Q/09
1Q/10
1Q/11
1Q/12
1Q/13
1Q/14
1Q/15
1Q/16
1Q/17
1Q/18
US$
/odm
t
US Northwest
US South
Canada West
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Fiber Markets - Brazil
• Expansion of Hardwood Pulp Capacity Slowing
• Second Largest Pulp Producer in the World• Eucalyptus Pulplog Prices Down in 2018• Fiber Price Outlook 2019: Flat/Upward
Wood ResourcesInternational
Hardwood Pulpwood Prices in Brazil
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1Q 00
1Q 02
1Q 04
1Q 06
1Q 08
1Q 10
1Q 12
1Q 14
1Q 16
1Q 18
US$
/odm
t
Source: Wood Resource Quarterly
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Fiber Markets – Nordics
• Expansion of Softwood Pulp Capacity
• Rise in the Use of Domestic Roundwood
• Increased Pulpwood Prices in 2018
• Fiber Price Outlook 2019: Flat/Upward
Wood ResourcesInternational
Pulplog Imports to the Nordic Countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
e
Mill
ion
m3
SoftwoodHardwoodTotal
Source: Customs data and the WRI
Wood ResourcesInternational
Softwood Pulpwood Prices in the Nordic Countries
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
1Q 00
1Q 02
1Q 04
1Q 06
1Q 08
1Q 10
1Q 12
1Q 14
1Q 16
1Q 18
US$
/odm
t
Sweden
Finland
Source: Wood Resource Quarterly
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Fiber Markets - China
• Lack of Domestic Forest Resources
• Largest Hardwood Chip Importer in the World
• High Wood Fiber Costs
• Fiber Price Outlook 2018-19: Flat
Wood ResourcesInternational
Hardwood Chip Import Volumes to China
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1Q/07
1Q/08
1Q/09
1Q/10
1Q/11
1Q/12
1Q/13
1Q/14
1Q/15
1Q/16
1Q/17
1Q/18
Mill
ion
odm
t
Sources: Customs data and WRQ
Wood ResourcesInternational
Hardwood Chip Import Prices
Sources: Customs data and WRI estimates
0
50
100
150
200
250
1Q/09
1Q/10
1Q/11
1Q/12
1Q/13
1Q/14
1Q/15
1Q/16
1Q/17
1Q/18
US$/odmt
China
Japan
Wood ResourcesInternational
Global Trade of Wood Chips
Wood ResourcesInternational
Global Wood Chip Trade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Mill
ion
odm
t
World AsiaSource: WRI databank
Wood ResourcesInternational
Major Wood Chip Trade Flows
Sources: Customs data and WRI estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
e
Mill
ion
odm
t
Vietnam - China Vietnam - Japan Chile - Japan
Australia - Japan Australia - China
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Pellet Trade and Feedstock
Wood ResourcesInternational
North America Pellet Exports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1Q/13
1Q/14
1Q/15
1Q/16
1Q/17
1Q/18
Mill
ion
tons
Europe
Asia
Total
Source: North American Wood Fiber Review
Wood ResourcesInternational
Feedstock for Pellet Plants in the US South and Canada in the 4Q/17
51
24
67
11 18
913
4
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Chips
Shavings
Forest Residues
Sawdust
Roundwood
Canada
Source: North American Wood Fiber Review
US South
3
Wood ResourcesInternational
Pellet Feedstock Price Indices (PFPI)US and Canada
0
20
40
60
80
1Q/13
1Q/14
1Q/15
1Q/16
1Q/17
1Q/18
US$
/odm
t
US South
Canada
Source: North American Wood Fiber Review
Wood ResourcesInternational
What’s next?
Wood ResourcesInternational
Wood Resources International LLCSeattle, USA
Publisher of the Wood Resource Quarterly andNorth American Wood Fiber Review
WoodPrices.com
Questions?
