International Relations (13)

Korean Nuclear Power/Weapons

2009. 12. 1김 병 구

bkkim9@gmail.com

History of First Nuclear Tests

• 1945 USA (Trinity)• 1949 USSR (Fat Man, Kazakhstan)• 1952 UK (Australia)• 1967 China (Sinkiang)• 1968 France (S. Pacific)

• 1974 India (Smiling Buddha, Rajasthan)

• 1998 Pakistan • 2006 NK (Poonggye)

Nuclear Arms Race (2004 inventory)

• Russia : 16,000• USA : 10,350• China: 400• France : 350• UK : 200

• Israel : 200• India : 30 ~ 35• Pakistan : 24 ~ 48

(1987 peak: USSR ~ 40,000, USA ~ 20,000)

US/RUS New Initiatives

• “4 Knights” recommendation (2008.1)– Perry/Nunn(Dem), Kissinger/Schultz(Rep)

• Obama NW disarmament, highest priority “US first to develop and use, moral

obligation”

• Accelerated START-2 revision(2009.4.1. Obama/Medvedev Joint State.)

• UN Security Council Summit (2009.9.24)UNSCR 1887: World without NW

Goal of a World without NW

• Nuclear security summit, April 2010– Strengthen NM control international

regime– US/RUS to lead by example– Prep meeting called, Dec. 3, Tokyo

• NPT Review Conference, May-June 2010

• “NW have’s” may gain moral ground• Obama wins 2009 Nobel Peace Prize

Nuclear Weapon Free Zones

• Antarctic zone : Antarctic Treaty• Latin America : Treaty of Tlatelolco• ASEAN region : Treaty of Bangkok• Africa continent : Treaty of Pelindaba• S. Pacific region : Treaty of Rarotonga• Central Asia region: Treaty of Almaty

• NE Asia region : (Limited NWFZ-NEA?)

Special Case of NK

• 1985 Signed NPT• 1992 SG Agreement with IAEA, first

crisis• 1994 Agreed Framework, KEDO

Project• 2002 IAEA/NPT withdrawal, second

crisis• 2006 Nuclear test (Poonggye)• 2007 6-Party Talks, resolution agreed

8

The Yongbyon nuclear sites

9

The 5 and the 50 MWe reactors

Reactor

Fuel storage

10

Discharged fuel in baskets

11

Yongbyon’s reprocessing facilities

Current Status of 6-P Talks (2008-)

• Shut-down, dismantle of 5MW cooling tower

• Elimination from US terror country list • IAEA inspectors on Yongbyun site• Verification process underway• Heavy oil supplied (half)• First ROK nuclear expert visited

Yongbyun (2009.1)• Nuclear brinkmanship continues• NK/US talks under “Grand Bargain”

Bilateral Talks may lead to

• Reopening of the 6-Party Talks• Negative security assurance• Diplomatic liaison offices in capitals• Energy assistance to NK

• NK moratorium on nuclear/missile tests

• IAEA verification, rejoin NPT, etc.

Global Nuclear Renaissance

• 439 NPPs in 31 MS in operation (2008)– Delivering 15% of total world electricity

• 33 NPPs in 13 MS under construction• 32 NPPs closed down, under

decommissioning• Nuclear suppliers global conglomerates

– PWR : AREVA (Framatom+Siemens) EPR Westinghouse (Toshiba + ABB-CE) AP-1000 Korea (Doosan + ?) APR-1400 Russia (AEP) VVER-1000

World Nuclear Power Forecast

• Installed capacity 1970 15 Gwe 1990 300 Gwe 2010 380 Gwe 2030 570 Gwe (low)

700 Gwe (high)

- major growth in Asia, Russia expected -

Nuclear export – Korean Dream

• New NPP market– Turnkey project supplier– Components supplier

• Existing NPP market– Replacement components supplier– Service contracts

• Nuclear fuel market– Reload core, fuel components supplier

Nuclear Export – Korean Dream(2)

• Research reactor market– Turnkey, replacement LEU fuel, service

• Nuclear medicine market– Cancer diagnosis/treatment, medical

cyclotron

• Expert consulting service– IAEA peer review missions, etc.

Light/dark contrast in the Peninsula

Summary

• New window of opportunity for major NW disarmament

• Day and night contrast in Korean peninsula, caused by nuclear– NK nuclear issue – the Achilles tendon

• Global nuclear Renaissance is coming

• Korean opportunities from experts to exports