International Radiation Protection Association 11th ...C17BF3A2-56BB-46B8-B01D... · – long term management and restoration of contaminated areas • Implementation in emergency

International Radiation Protection Association11th International Congress

Madrid, Spain - May 23-28, 2004

Refresher Course

Emergency and Post Accident ManagementNeale Kelly and Carlos Rojas Palma

IRPA 11 Refresher Course 7b 2

Scope

• Improvements and developments in thepast decade– in particular in Europe

• Major challenges and action needed– main conclusions of a recent international symposium

on Emergency Management


Major improvements and developments

• RODOS decision support system• Source term estimation• Assimilation of model predictions and

measurements.• Evaluation of countermeasures.• Stakeholder involvement• Management of contaminated environments • Data and information exchange


Decision support systems (DSS)

• DSS support– policy development – emergency preparedness arrangements– actual emergency response

• Major improvements in past decade– advances in informatics and communications

• RODOS– comprehensive and broadly applicable– state of the art, developed with EC support– will contribute to more coherent response


RODOS DSS

• Applicable anywhere subject to customisation

• Applicable to all stages of an accident– threat or pre-release phase– release and post release phases– long term management and restoration of contaminated areas

• Implementation in emergency centres– pre- or operational use in B, SF, D, H, NL, PL, P, SK, ES, UA – being installed in AT, CZ and SI– foreseen for installation in RO, RF and BU– under consideration in SE, LU and CH


ARGOS DSS

• Initially designed with limited functionality– collection/processing environmental monitoring data

• Functionality progressively being extended– by integration of RODOS products

• Implementation in emergency centres– pre- or operational use in DK, ES, LV, LT, NO, IE,

CAN– under consideration in SE


RODOS & ARGOS in Europe


RODOS key features

Inputs • release to the environment

– directly from measurements– indirectly from plant status

• prevailing and forecast meteorological conditions

• prevailing and forecast conditions of water bodies and their catchments

• measurements in the environment


RODOS key features cont’d

OUTPUTS• Dispersion of radioactive material in time and space• Contamination of foodstuffs, buildings, water bodies, etc• Exposures of the population and potential health effects• Impact of countermeasures

– economic and social costs– averted doses

• Effective communication with other users and systems• Evaluation system to assist decision makers choose

between alternative countermeasure strategies.


RODOS – user interaction

RODOS System

User Category A

RODOSWeb Server

User Category B

User Category C

RODOS Centre


Source term estimation

• Based on plant status and its prognosis

• Applicable pre- and post- release

• Major progress in past decade– Two modules that can be interfaced with RODOS or

other DSS• ASTRID - deterministic approach• STERPS - probabilistic approach


The ASTRID user interface

Export...�

Fission Product file

Process parameters Nuclides

SendPrint

Iodine 129

Iodine 131

Iodine 134

Display/print/send time stamp

Print FP list

FP half life

Inventory

Emitted fraction

Residing airborn fraction

Released airborn fraction

FP Group 1

FP Group 2

FP Group 3

FP Group 4

FP Group 5

FP Group 6

FP Group 7

Printing options:

FP list

FP half life

Inventory

Release height

Release heat content

Inventory

Export File Options:

New� Ctrl+NOpen...� Ctrl+OClose� Ctrl+WSave� Ctrl+SSave as...� Ctrl+S

Import...Export...

Print...� Ctrl+PFormat...

Quit� Ctrl+Q

Accident overviewCalculation modulesFission products

On/site weather

Work administration

Reports

g

Core inventoryReactor primary circuitSecondary circuitReactor containment

FP listDominant FPsFP matrix

NPP X - Accident Overview

Alarm LevelOn-site Weather

NPP Basic information Alarm Criteria

Input data subset

Event Log

FP Airborn Fraction

Reactorscram

Plantstate

Timeprojec.

Windspeed

m/s

Releasetime

Time

11.47�Reactor scram, all rods inserted11.56�Feedwater pump failure12.19�Reactor pressure relief valve fails

Work Administration

Summary structure & Reports

12.45�1-2-3 Barrier state at 12.18�� 1st barrier�� 2nd and 3rd barrier13.15�Projection given failure/availability13.45�8h projection, resulting ST

11.47 12.46 13.15 - - . - -

Reactor core

FP BARRIER STATE & CSF INDICATORReactor & Primary Syst. Reactor containment

SUBCRITICALITY

CORE COOLING

MASS CONTENT

WATER LEVEL

PRESSURE RELIEF

HEAT SINK

MASS CONTENT

INTEGRITY

ISOLATION

COOLING

ATMOSPHERE

?1 2 31 2 3

PRECALC.

ST

Input data subset Input data subset

100101

0.10.01

100101

0.10.01

100101

0.10.01

3MPa

FWS

AFWS

RHRS

ECCS

RCS

BS

EMERGENCY

GENERAL EM

SITE AREA

ALERT

S

EW

NNW NE

SW SE

? ? ?

AHA

B

C

E

F

GD I

J

K

L

H

JE

G

C

I

F

B

D

A�Reactor water level � 650�oCB�Feedwater flow� 00� kg/sC�Aux.feedwater flow� 00� kg/sD�Em.core cooling flow� 00� kg/sE�Recirc.flow� 00� kg/s

A�Core temperature � 650�oCB�Scram actuated, in- pos.� Y/NC�Mech. rod insertion, in-pos.�Y/ND�Boron injection actuated� Y/NE�� 0.0�m

A�DW containm.pressure � 000�MPa�B�Containm.diff. pressure� 000�MPaC�WW containm.pressure� 000�MPaD�Cond.pool water level� 4.5� mE�Cond.pool water temp.� 28� oC

INVENTORY

BS

SS

C

DA

B


STERPS: A probabilistic approach to source term estimation

Neticafile

SPRINT

Netica API

Source Term

scenarios

Net2SSSource

Term file

CPTfile

Case file

SPRINT Software Architecture


“Data” Assimilation (DA)

• DA - assimilation of measurements, predictions, expert judgement, etc, to better inform decisions

• Essential to:– resolve conflicts between predictions and measurements– improve quality of predictions where no/few measurements exist

• Critical feature of well conceived and functional DSS– but not present in many DSS


DA in RODOS

• Uses the Kalman filter technique

• Applied to atmospheric, food and hydrological transfers

• Accounts for uncertainties in predictions and measurements as well as expert judgement

• Operates in real time

• Uncertainties transferred between model chains


DAONEM cont’d

Atmospheric Dispersion Modules

Hydro Modules

Deposition Module

Aquatic Food and Dose Modules

Countermeasure Modules

Terrestrial Food and Dose Modules

Atmospheric Dispersion Updating Module (ADUM)

Deposition Monitoring Module (DeMM)

Food Monitoring Module (FoMM)

Hydro Data Assimilation Modules

DATA ASSIMILATION MODELS


Data assimilation in the late phase

Two separate modules

• Deposition– progressively updates predictions of deposition (over

time and space) based on available measurements of gamma dose rate and concentrations on plants

• Food Chain– progressively updates predictions of of concentrations

in feed- and foodstuffs (over time and space) based on available measurements of these quantities


Data assimilation based on 137Cs activity concentration in milk after the deposition from the Chernobyl accident

Measurement

0,1

1

10

100

1000

0 240 480 720 960 1200

days after deposition (April 30, 1986)

Bq/

kg

Data assimilationafter 2 years

Data assimilationafter 2 days

ModelMeasurement


Evaluation of countermeasure strategies in RODOS

• Enable decision makers to make informed choices on countermeasures– important for development of policy and emergency

arrangements and for actual response

• Achieved through use of the ESY sub-system– uses multi attribute techniques– ranks countermeasure options subject to decision

makers’ values and preferences– accommodates broad range of inputs, eg, doses,

risks, costs, social and political impacts, anxiety, etc


attributes that might be considered as relevant to decisions in the early phase of a nuclear emergency

influencing factors

radiation protection other factors

political reactions

advantages

disadvantages

avoidableindividual

risks

avoidablecollective

risks

re-assurance

individualstress

monetarycosts

collective physical

risks

individualphysical

risks

risks ofworkers

disruptionto society

anxietycaused by measures


Information exchange - MODEM project

• Develop a platform independent communication system between existing DSS– using state of the art internet technology– enable prompt and effective transfer of diverse

information

• Complement existing operational systems– provide direct communications on a common basis

between linked DSS in different countries.


MODEM concept

AccilandNeighbourland

andinternational

Organisations

Push

Measured Data

Information

Notification

Autom. Exchange

Pull


MODEM

• Combines messaging and web services to notify and populate contents on web servers

• Rapid and semi-automated to exchange data and information and to visualize other DSS results.

• Successfully connected RODOS (EU), ARGOS (DK) and RECASS (RF)

• Extend in the future to the US, CAN and JP


Airborne monitoring

• Rapid characterisation of deposition– critical for effective post accident management– public reassurance

• European capability, pre-Chernobyl, limited but major advances since

• Capability demonstrated in RESUME exercises– most recently with joint mapping of deposition in Southern

Scotland in real time • Opportunities to enhance capability through deeper

integration


Dose rate map from Southern Scotland


ENSEMBLE - harmonisation of long-range atmospheric dispersion forecasts

• Major differences in forecasts of national meteorological services– may cause differences in response– source of public concern and confusion

• ENSEMBLE aims to better inform the decision process – demonstrates the degree of coherence/divergence of forecasts

• ENSEMBLE is – a web based tool to compare forecasts in real time– exercised frequently involving > 20 forecasting organisations– being further developed


ENSEMBLE cont’d


Stakeholder involvement

• FARMING - Agriculture and food– stakeholder panels in several EU countries to

establish more practicable, cost effective and broadly acceptable countermeasures

• EVATECH - Urban areas– facilitated workshops held in several EU countries

with a broad range of stakeholders to establish more practicable, cost effective and acceptable countermeasures for contaminated urban areas


Long term management and rehabilitation of contaminated areas - ETHOS project

• Novel “bottom up” and more inclusive approach to improve conditions in contaminated areas– population taking greater responsibility for its actions– production of less contaminated food– social and economic improvements

• Responding to earlier failures caused by:– the development of a dependency culture– highly centralised approach


ETHOS cont’d

• Implemented initially in one settlement,Olmany• Extended to several villages in Stolyn district• Approach adopted as important element of

Belarus policy for sustainable redevelopment of contaminated areas

• Approach now being rolled out to several regions in Belarus under the CORE project– with support from several European countries and

international organisations


Over to Neale


Major Challenges

• Intervention levels• Role of radiation protection• Stakeholder involvement• Preparedness and exercising for the late phase• Rehabilitation and long term management• Regional co-operation and mutual assistance• Maintaining competence• Malevolent uses• Research and development


Intervention Levels

Issue• Broad international agreement on principles• Major differences in IL/DIL adopted nationally• Will cause major problems, post accidentAction needed• Identify reasons for differences• Evaluate opportunities for greater harmonisation• Inform the political process


Role of Radiation Protection

Issue• Historically RP has taken a leading role

• Is emergency and post accident management:– a social problem with RP inputs or – an RP problem with social inputs

• More enlightened have recognised that it is the former but practice has been otherwise


Role of Radiation Protection (cont’d)

Action needed• Revisit guidance on emergency and post

accident management• Incorporate a broader range interests

(stakeholder involvement)• Learn from projects such as FARMING,

STRATEGY and EVATECH and practical experience post Chernobyl and elsewhere


Stakeholder Involvement

Issue• Arrangements have had a long gestation and

largely determined by “technologists”• In general, little broader stakeholder involvementAction needed• Review extent to which views and needs of

stakeholders are reflected in arrangements• Initiate more inclusive and sustainable process

where potentially important deficits identified


Preparedness and Exercising for Post Accident Management

Issue• In general, rudimentary and much less frequent

compared with emergency phaseAction needed• Enhance detailed level of planning and preparedness• Radically increase frequency and the nature of exercises• Need to address:

– management of contaminated agricultural land and inhabited areas and

– interfaces between changing lead organisations


Rehabilitation and Long Term Management

Issue• Undue focus on “narrow” radiological issues is

misguided and has led to failure• Not addressing broader issues (eg, social,

cultural, ethical, political, environmental, etc) can only lead to failure

• Nature and importance of the problem not broadly recognised among the radiological and decision making communities


Rehabilitation and Long Term Management (cont’d)

Action needed• Develop shared understanding of issues• Develop framework that can assist authorities in

establishing policy, with guidance on application• Demonstrate efficacy of framework and its

related guidance• Disseminate the framework widely and promote

its use• Develop and maintain international competence


Regional Co-operation and Mutual Assistance

Issue• Fewer resources in future

– even maintaining status quo will be difficult• Regional cooperation could lead to better

resource allocation and more integrated response– but resistance due to some loss of autonomy

• Mutual assistance arrangements in place– but add-ons to, and rarely an integral part of, national

arrangements


Regional Co-operation and Mutual Assistance (cont’d)

Action needed• Evaluate merits of, and impediments to, regional

approaches (particularly in Europe)• Potential greatest for:

– regional emergency centres, decision support systems– airborne gamma monitoring, mobile and personal monitoring– biological dosimetry, treatment of highly exposed individuals, etc

• Better integrate mutual assistance into national arrangements

• Important progress in Central Europe a stimulant for cooperation elsewhere– coordination around RODOS DSS and EURANOS project


Maintaining Competence

Issue• Declining competence

– due to maturity of the nuclear industry– ageing of the workforce– moratoria on new nuclear build in many countries

• Exacerbated (in Europe) due to large increase in resources post Chernobyl

• Situation worse for late phase– emergency arrangements are an integral part of plant

operation/licensing


Maintaining Competence (cont’d)

Action needed• Problem well recognised but less clear how it

should be resolved. Possible actions include:– achieving critical mass through collaboration at

regional or international levels– regional/international task forces on particular topics

• eg, airborne gamma monitoring, waste management, monitoring special nuclides, etc

– mapping competence– education and training

• Solutions will require political accords


Malevolent Uses of Radioactive Material

Issue• Arrangements largely developed for fixed

installations– additional demands when location of source unknown

Action needed• Review adequacy of existing arrangements for

response to malevolent uses• Identify any major deficits and rectify

– particular attention to be given to the diversity of sources and how they may be used


Research and Development

Issue• Most research has a largely technical focus

– but many of the challenges have a social or political as opposed to technical origin

Action needed• Ensure that research agendas remain

responsive to the most pressing needs• Initiatives to increase participation of the social

humanitarian, management and political sciences in problem definition and resolution

Documents

International Radiation Protection Association 11th ...C17BF3A2-56BB-46B8-B01D... · – long term management and restoration of contaminated areas • Implementation in emergency