© OECD/IEA 2018

International Energy Developments: Focus on the Eastern PartnershipPaul Simons, Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency

Eastern Partnership Business Forum

Vienna, 6 December 2018

IEA

© OECD/IEA 2018

Today’s energy context

Mixed signals about the pace & direction of change in global energy:

Oil markets are entering a period of renewed uncertainty & volatility

Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’

Solar PV has the momentum while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push

Our assessment points to energy-related CO2 emissions reaching a historic high in 2018

For the first time, the global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion

Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its

reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate

© OECD/IEA 2018

2000

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2012

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2013

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2014

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2015

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2016

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2017

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2018

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2019

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2020

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The new geography of energy

Energy demand

In 2000, more than 40% of global demand was in Europe & North America and some20% in developing economies in Asia. By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.

2021

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2022

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2024

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2026

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2027

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2028

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By 2040, this situation is completely reversed.

© OECD/IEA 2018

Oil

Advanced

economies

Developing

economies

Gas

Advanced

economies

Developing

economies

Fuelling the demand for energy

The increase in demand would be twice as large without continued improvementsin energy efficiency, a powerful tool to address energy security & sustainability concerns

Coal

Advanced

economies

Developing

economies

Change in global energy demand, 2017-2040

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

1 200

1 500Renewables &

nuclearMtoe

Advanced

economies

Developing

economies

Ren

ew

ab

les

Nuclear

Industry

Other

Power

Cars

Other

Petro-

chemical

Cars

Power

Other

Power

© OECD/IEA 2018

Global emissions are set to increase in 2018 - again

The world is not moving towards the Paris goals, but rather away from them

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018 (TCEP): Historical data basis

CO2 emissions

Increase in 2017

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Gt CO2

© OECD/IEA 2018

Renewables and energy efficiency essential to sustainable future

A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet goals,

with energy efficiency and renewables playing lead roles

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

16

20

24

28

32

36

2010 2020 2030 2040

Central Scenario

Sustainable

Development Scenario

Efficiency

Renewables

Fuel-switching

CCS

Other

Nuclear

44%

36%

2%6%9%2%

Gt CO2

2

© OECD/IEA 2018

Can we unlock a different energy future?

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

Coal plants make up one-third of CO2 emissions today and half are less than 15 years old; policies are needed to support CCUS, efficient operations and technology innovation

12

18

24

30

2017 2025 2030 2035 2040

Gt CO2 36

Sustainable

Development Scenario

Coal-fired power plants

Increased

room to

manoeuvre

6

New Policies Scenario

Existing and under constructionpower plants, factories, buildings etc.

© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017

EU4Energy Programme Overview: 2016-2020

• Eastern Partnership

- Belarus

- Moldova

- Ukraine

- Armenia

- Azerbaijan

- Georgia

• Central Asia

- Kazakhstan

- Kyrgyzstan

- Tajikistan

- Turkmenistan

- Uzbekistan

1 Support the sound

development and

implementation of evidence-

based, medium-to-long-term

energy policies…

2 …based on improved use of

statistics

3…and sharing of best policy and

other practices and EU

experience in the Eastern

Partnership and Central Asia

11 Focus Countries

© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017

IEA for EU4Energy by the numbers

222people trained by IEA for EU4Energy593

attendees at IEA for EU4Energy

events11

countries participating in the IEA

for EU4Energy

Programme

153statisticians

attended events

10 events combiningpolicy fora & training

lasting 2-5 days each

11topics covered

75participants per

fora

Average of

© OECD/IEA 2018

Comprehensive slate of policy events covering Energy Efficiency and Renewables

Astana: Energy Efficiency

and Renewables, June

2017

Odesa: Renewables

Policy

Recommendations and

Sustainable Transport,

March 2018

Tbilisi: Energy

Efficiency Training

Week, October 2017

Vienna:

Bioenergy, April

2018

Minsk: Grid Integration

of Variable Renewables,

November 2017

Kiev: Renewable

Heat, September

2017

NB: This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty

over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and

boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Samarkand: Solar

Energy, Renewables

Policy

Recommendations,

October 2018

Moldova: Grid

Integration of Variable

Renewables, November

2018

© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017

EU4Energy Renewables Events Directly Inform Deliverables

Events, discussions with country

delegations, and country expert work

leading to the October launch of the IEA’s

20 Renewable Energy Policy

Recommendations

These will also be used as a base for our

upcoming country roadmaps and In-

Depth Country Reviews in Year Four of

the Programme

© OECD/IEA 2018

Energy Efficiency: Virtuous circle between events and deliverables

By-Country

Energy

Efficiency One-

pagers

Energy

Efficiency Policy

Fora

By-country and by-

stream EE

Recommendations

IEA for EU4Energy deliverables both lead into and are a result of policy

fora…and are the basis for more in-depth work as the Programme continues

© OECD/IEA 2018© OECD/IEA 2017

• Cross-sectoral approach to energy efficiency captures holistic view, with

statistics underpinning each sector

• Inclusion of statistics strengthens policymaking across sectors

• Inception missions and the Tbilisi Energy Efficiency Training Week

introduce the sectoral themes, then

per-sector analytical approach

commences, with policy fora devoted

to each sector

A sectoral approach to Energy Efficiency

Buildings

Transport

IndustryLighting &

appliances

Statistics

© OECD/IEA 2018

Improved energy data dissemination: making energy statistics visible

From infographics created at the IEA…

Helping statisticians with national dissemination is key

….to infographics produced by statistical offices

http://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-

excel/Oficial_statistika/year-ru-energy-2018-15.xlsxTranslated by statisticians in all national languages

http://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-excel/Oficial_statistika/year-ru-energy-2018-15.xlsx

© OECD/IEA 2018

EU4Energy: Linking data & policy

Why :

• Helps raise the profile of statistics within

the country

• Find budget support

(for training events, for data collection)

• Requires adapting communication

How:

• National energy statistics working groups with data

producers and users exist in 9 countries now

• Media articles showing the use of data for policies

• Next: Evidence-based policies? Example: Armenia:

energy statistics will be used in building the

country’s energy strategy through 2036

© OECD/IEA 2018

Conclusions

• Renewables penetration – together with energy efficiency and other clean energy technologies - must accelerate in all sectors to meet long-term

sustainability goals.

• Even with ongoing cost reductions for renewables, government policy remains crucial to attract investment, ensure appropriate market design and reliable and

cost-effective system integration – but industry has an important role making

this investment , developing technology and spurring innovation

• Efficiency opportunities are cost-effective and use only technology available today, but require a significant step up in policy action

• IEA looks forward to strengthening its relationships with Eastern Partnership countries on renewables and efficiency through the EU4Energy project.

© OECD/IEA 2018

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