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International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November 15 2012
Water-Related Risks and Opportunitiesfor Foreign Direct Investments in Africa
Holger HoffStockholm Environment Institute
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
A new global freshwater assessment
Blue water availability per capita Gerten et al 2011
Blue plus green water availability per capita
A new global freshwater assessment
Gerten et al 2011
A new global freshwater assessment
Change in blue plus green water availability per capita – climate changeA2, 2080, ensemble mean
A new global freshwater assessment
Crop water productivities (m3 water required for producing 1000 kcalunder current crop mix and management
! productivity gradient along the Nile basin !
A new global freshwater assessment
Water-limited food self sufficiency potentialGerten et al 2011
largely semi-arid savanna systems
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
UNEP 2004
only about 10% of rainfall becomes blue water (runoff and groundwater)
very little of that blue water is tapped for agriculture or other purposes
high variability and uncertainty about rainfall and seasonal water availability
Brown et al 2006
-> need for additional water storage and irrigation
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
variability and uncertainty are projected to increase with climate change (Hansen et al 2012)
CoV monthly rainfall
Lack of blue water storage (and other water infrastructure)
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Grey et al 2007
-> need for additional water storage and irrigation
< 5% of agriculture is irrigated (compared to about 40% in South Asia)
FAO 2004
Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
-> need for additional water storage and irrigation
Water situation in the Nile basin
Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2000
based onCPWF data
Water situation in the Nile basin
Green water availability per capita per subbasin - 2050
based onCPWF data
Crop (water) productivity in the Blue Nile basin
again: large productivity gradient -> win-win basin-wide solutions
Effects of climate change: upper Blue Nile discharge
Lopez2012
FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile
Bossio et al 2012
water effects often downstream (different from land impacts)
most significant effects in the dry season when river flow is lowest, but irrigation demand peaks
Our estimate of contracted areas: 1.76 million ha if fully irrigated, annual runoff in the Blue Nile may drop by 5-20 %
Land Matrix estimate: 3-6 million ha
FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile
Bossio et al 2012
investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits
FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture
“Large-scale farming is in most cases unlikely to be the most appropriateavenue for the commercialization of African agriculture”
from: Awakening Africa‘s Sleeping GiantWorld Bank 2009
investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed,adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits
as well as other inputs and interventions, e.g. integrated fertilizer & pest management, „green agriculture“ solutions
not only large-scale blue water infrastructure, but also scalable interventions across the green-to-blue spectrum,
e.g. rainwater harvesting and storage, spreading weirs, etc
FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture
Thank you !