Interfacing Risk and Systems Engineering

– Left Shift Risk ManagementIncose Conference

9th November 2007

Val Jonas

Agenda

Basics of Systems Engineering

The concept of “Left Shift”

Application to three stages of Systems Engineering

Conclusions

Systems Engineering

Systems Engineering consists of the technical and management processes used to transform operational needs, concepts, and policies into a system configuration that optimises the total system design to meet cost, schedule and technical performance objectives.  

Requirements processOperational use

Userrequirements

Systemspecification

Subsystemspecifications

Usertests

Systemtests

Subsystemtests

Acceptancetests

Capabilityrequirements

Statement of need

Customer

Supplier

Customer

Supplier

Operational use

Userrequirements

Systemspecification

Subsystemspecifications

Usertests

Systemtests

Subsystemtests

Acceptancetests

Capabilityrequirements

Statement of need

Traceability and Compliance

satisfies

satisfies

satisfies

satisfies validating the User

verifying the system

qualifying the subsystems

qualifying components

No. of Problem causes

Established

Cost of RecoveryTackled as potential problems

Emergence as problems

Left shift during 3 stages

Understand context

Create the baseline requirements acceptance criteria

Manage change

Operational use

Userrequirements

Systemspecification

Subsystemspecification

Usertests

Systemtests

Subsystemtests

Acceptancetests

Capabilityrequirements

Statement of need

Stage 1 - Understand context

Economic, environment, market influences

Optionsconsiderations

Businessbenefits

Portfolio Analysis

Case study: Rail industryRequirement: increased passenger capacity

1. More seats (added safety requirements)2. Longer trains (longer platforms)3. Double-decker trains (taller tunnels)4. High speed trains (upgraded track)

Options comparisonSchedule, budget,

resourcesProcurement strategyLease value and lifeReputation / image

GDPInvestment / financing environmentEvolving stakeholder expectationsCompetitorsChange of London Mayor

Options analysis Benefits case

Economic, environment, market influences

Overlap with Technical Upgrade Programme

Portfolio analysis

Stage 2 – Create the baseline

Operational use

Userrequirements

Systemspecification

Subsystemspecification

Usertests

Systemtests

Subsystemtests

Acceptancetests

Capabilityrequirements

Statement of need

Identify risks against

requirements&

develop mitigation strategies

Riskand Action Register

Supplier 1Risk

Register

Identifysub-system

requirements risk(in lower levelrisk registers) Supplier 2

RiskRegister

Requirements & Acceptance Criteria

Identify risksto achievingcompliance

Case study: UtilitiesRequirement: National infrastructure upgrade

Difficulty gaining stakeholder agreementLong-winded ministerial approval processNeed for public consultationsChange of government / general election

New health & safety legislation

Related disasterInfluence of regulatory reviewNew leases non-compliant

High level risks to achieving requirements

Acceptance risks

New technology unavailableFailure to achieve wayleave consentRaw materials not availabieLegacy platform restricts design options

Low level risks to achieving requirements System platform incompatibility

Obsolete technologyFailure to reach reliability

targetsInsufficient trials

Sub-system Acceptance risks

Stage 3 – Manage ChangeCase study: UK MoD

Manage scope creep Write requirements in sufficient detail Enforce rigorous change and configuration control

Evaluate potential change in advance Traceability (Doors) Risk assessment (Predict! and ARM) & risk analysis

(Predict!)

Beware of opportunities – they can bite!

No. of Problem causes

Established

Cost of RecoveryTackled as potential problems

Emergence as problems

Thank you