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Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

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Page 1: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc.

August 30, 2016

Page 2: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Agenda

Topics:

• Focus on the G.A.

• The Importance of MPT

• First Web Version

• Interactive Brokers

• Web Marketing

• Schedule

In this Report, we will discuss developments and the deployment of the OmniFunds product & marketing.

“MPT Lab” Web Application

Page 3: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Focus on the Genetic Algorithm

Page 4: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

The G.A. Opportunity

In preparation for BASH 2016, we were working on the Genetic Algorithm. We then realized it would provide the best selection method for ETFs. Benefits of using the G.A.:

• Industry Focus is on A.I.

• Higher Valuation

• Difficult to Replicate

• Primary Up-Sell ($) from Low Cost Subscriptions

BASH 2016 Presentation

Page 5: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

G.A. Enhancements

G.A. Improvements in 2016:

• Boolean Inputs BASH 2016

• G.A. Indicator (Ranking & Filtering) BASH 2016

• Incremental Knowledge Base Training* Completed

• Uniqueness Measurement* Completed

• Required Inputs (Market States)* Completed

• Automatic Rule Validation* Pending

• Automatic Pruning* Pending

* These enhancements were designed specifically to enable our Server-based Genetic Algorithm process, benefitting OmniFunds.

Page 6: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Performance Improvements

GA Funds Strategy was demonstrated at BASH 2016, showing out of sample accuracy of 83% and 3% Profit per Trade. The Profile used was based on Exchange Traded Funds.

BASH 2016 Presentation

Page 7: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

The Importance of MPT

Page 8: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Industry Focus

Virtually all Robo Advisors, including the new ones at Schwab, E*Trade, and Fidelity are based on Modern Portfolio Theory.

Page 9: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Why is MPT used?

MPT is SIMPLY an ALLOCATION METHOD that does not take into account trend or market direction.

Even so, MPT is widely accepted as the standard way to invest....

Page 10: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

The Opportunity

Market States ETF Selection Allocation

Modern Portfolio Theory

ETFs in Trend or Positioned

to Move

Bullish vs. Bearish vs.

Volatile

Modern Portfolio Theory

Start Here

Explain These Risk Controls

Page 11: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Become the “Expert” in the Space

360Partners.com is helping us target our content to optimize results in this space.

The site will EDUCATE investors as to the perils of using MPT versus using MPT with Market Timing (which we are calling Advanced Portfolio Theory).

A Comparison

Modern Portfolio Theory

Advanced Portfolio Theory

Page 12: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Product Implementation

Page 13: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

The“MPT Lab”

• Classic MPT Implemented for allocation of assets.

• Risk Adjustment implemented per the classic model, based on Standard Deviation of Returns.

• Demonstrates Incremental as opposed to Fixed MPT. This illustrates the “Curve Fit” problems inherent in the MPT Approach of which the public is not aware.

Risk Adjustment

Overlays Progression Comparison *

SERVER

* The MPT Lab will help us explain why MPT by itself is not adequate.

Page 14: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Working Demo

http://analysis.myomnifunds.com

Demonstrates: • MPT Lab Concept • Server-Based Speed • Incremental vs.

Fixed MPT.

Page 15: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Development Plan

Completed Tasks MPT Allocation Module APT Switching Engine Risk Tolerance Adjustment Equity Curve Simulation Equity Curve Graphing Currently In Process oRisk Questionnaire o ETF Ranking & Filtering oMarket State Filters oConnection to Broker (FIX) oAccount Management

Page 16: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Interactive Brokers

Page 17: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

A Significant Event

In May, Transcend Capital Announced their merger with Garwood Securities.

As a result, we are REQUIRED to convert to Interactive Brokers from COR Clearing.

Why is this so significant?

www.garwoodsecurities.net

Page 18: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Interactive Brokers

• One of the largest discount brokers.

• Low transaction costs for clients.

• Favorable IRA Treatment

• Global Markets & Room for Growth.

www.interactivebrokers.com

Page 19: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Robo Advisor Activity at I.B.

There are currently several “Robo” Firms that use Interactive Brokers.

We will work to place OmniFunds through Garwood, with the goal of marketing to the Interactive Brokers customer base.

PDF Document: Robo Advisors at Interactive Brokers http://downloads.nirvanasytems.com/omnifunds/ib.pdf

Page 20: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Web Marketing

Page 21: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

360 Partners

360Partners.com, a Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Firm, is helping us define content so we can optimize our message in the Space. Content Candidates: • Robo Advisor Blog • Investor’s Lab • Avoiding Risk without Overly

Sacrificing Return • Robo Advisor Industry News • The Myth around Tax Loss

Harvesting • Transaction Costs: Do they

really matter? www.360Partners.com

Page 22: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

About - IFM Team - Approach - Brokers

Your Account - Transactions - Quarterly P&L - Tax Statements

Web Site

360Partners will help us establish the right content (site) map.

News for Investors - Ed’s Blog - Advisor Directory - New Entries - Industry Rankings

Articles - What is Tax Loss Harvesting? - Do transaction fees matter? - How to avoid market risk? - Does Market Timing work?

Investor Lab - Understanding MPT - Incremental vs. Fixed - How MPT Reduces Risk. - Proof: Switching Makes Sense.

Page 23: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

SalesEngine (B2B)

Many companies are looking for Automated Fund Management Solutions. We plan to use Sales Engine for Outbound Marketing. Target Companies: • Money Managers • Registered Investment

Advisors • Pension Funds • 401k Management Firms • Educational Retirement

Funds • Regional Banks • Credit Unions

www.salesenginemedia.com

Page 24: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

OmniFunds Schedule

Page 25: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Schedule Comparison

Primary Changes since launch are

hilighted in (RED)

We experienced some schedule delays, but the changes will benefit the project overall.

Page 26: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

History & Goals

History:

May • Focused on GA Improvements

June-August • Strategic Decision to implement

Modern Portfolio Theory as an Allocation Method.

• I.B. FIX Implementation • MPT Implementation • Built our OmniFunds Web

Engine supporting MPT on Servers

• Engaged 360 Partners for Content Consultation

Goals: September • Finish Functional Site with

INTERACTIVE BROKERS as the Clearing Firm.

October • Open Site to Public • Sales Engine B2B Marketing.

November-December • Secure First B2B Contract(s)

Page 27: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Key Funding Drivers

• Nirvana’s Dual Focus: – OmniFunds Development – Cash Flow from Sales.

• AutoVest (TradeKing): – In play but we do not control

their marketing agenda.

• Launching OmniFunds: – We must bring OmniFunds

to market in Q4. – Currently assessing funding

requirement to maintain this important focus.

Page 28: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Thank You.

Page 29: Intelligent Fund Management - Nirvana Systems Inc. · Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc. August 30, 2016

Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc.

August 30, 2016