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Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc.
August 30, 2016
Agenda
Topics:
• Focus on the G.A.
• The Importance of MPT
• First Web Version
• Interactive Brokers
• Web Marketing
• Schedule
In this Report, we will discuss developments and the deployment of the OmniFunds product & marketing.
“MPT Lab” Web Application
Focus on the Genetic Algorithm
The G.A. Opportunity
In preparation for BASH 2016, we were working on the Genetic Algorithm. We then realized it would provide the best selection method for ETFs. Benefits of using the G.A.:
• Industry Focus is on A.I.
• Higher Valuation
• Difficult to Replicate
• Primary Up-Sell ($) from Low Cost Subscriptions
BASH 2016 Presentation
G.A. Enhancements
G.A. Improvements in 2016:
• Boolean Inputs BASH 2016
• G.A. Indicator (Ranking & Filtering) BASH 2016
• Incremental Knowledge Base Training* Completed
• Uniqueness Measurement* Completed
• Required Inputs (Market States)* Completed
• Automatic Rule Validation* Pending
• Automatic Pruning* Pending
* These enhancements were designed specifically to enable our Server-based Genetic Algorithm process, benefitting OmniFunds.
Performance Improvements
GA Funds Strategy was demonstrated at BASH 2016, showing out of sample accuracy of 83% and 3% Profit per Trade. The Profile used was based on Exchange Traded Funds.
BASH 2016 Presentation
The Importance of MPT
Industry Focus
Virtually all Robo Advisors, including the new ones at Schwab, E*Trade, and Fidelity are based on Modern Portfolio Theory.
Why is MPT used?
MPT is SIMPLY an ALLOCATION METHOD that does not take into account trend or market direction.
Even so, MPT is widely accepted as the standard way to invest....
The Opportunity
Market States ETF Selection Allocation
Modern Portfolio Theory
ETFs in Trend or Positioned
to Move
Bullish vs. Bearish vs.
Volatile
Modern Portfolio Theory
Start Here
Explain These Risk Controls
Become the “Expert” in the Space
360Partners.com is helping us target our content to optimize results in this space.
The site will EDUCATE investors as to the perils of using MPT versus using MPT with Market Timing (which we are calling Advanced Portfolio Theory).
A Comparison
Modern Portfolio Theory
Advanced Portfolio Theory
Product Implementation
The“MPT Lab”
• Classic MPT Implemented for allocation of assets.
• Risk Adjustment implemented per the classic model, based on Standard Deviation of Returns.
• Demonstrates Incremental as opposed to Fixed MPT. This illustrates the “Curve Fit” problems inherent in the MPT Approach of which the public is not aware.
Risk Adjustment
Overlays Progression Comparison *
SERVER
* The MPT Lab will help us explain why MPT by itself is not adequate.
Working Demo
http://analysis.myomnifunds.com
Demonstrates: • MPT Lab Concept • Server-Based Speed • Incremental vs.
Fixed MPT.
Development Plan
Completed Tasks MPT Allocation Module APT Switching Engine Risk Tolerance Adjustment Equity Curve Simulation Equity Curve Graphing Currently In Process oRisk Questionnaire o ETF Ranking & Filtering oMarket State Filters oConnection to Broker (FIX) oAccount Management
Interactive Brokers
A Significant Event
In May, Transcend Capital Announced their merger with Garwood Securities.
As a result, we are REQUIRED to convert to Interactive Brokers from COR Clearing.
Why is this so significant?
www.garwoodsecurities.net
Interactive Brokers
• One of the largest discount brokers.
• Low transaction costs for clients.
• Favorable IRA Treatment
• Global Markets & Room for Growth.
www.interactivebrokers.com
Robo Advisor Activity at I.B.
There are currently several “Robo” Firms that use Interactive Brokers.
We will work to place OmniFunds through Garwood, with the goal of marketing to the Interactive Brokers customer base.
PDF Document: Robo Advisors at Interactive Brokers http://downloads.nirvanasytems.com/omnifunds/ib.pdf
Web Marketing
360 Partners
360Partners.com, a Search Engine Optimization (SEO) Firm, is helping us define content so we can optimize our message in the Space. Content Candidates: • Robo Advisor Blog • Investor’s Lab • Avoiding Risk without Overly
Sacrificing Return • Robo Advisor Industry News • The Myth around Tax Loss
Harvesting • Transaction Costs: Do they
really matter? www.360Partners.com
About - IFM Team - Approach - Brokers
Your Account - Transactions - Quarterly P&L - Tax Statements
Web Site
360Partners will help us establish the right content (site) map.
News for Investors - Ed’s Blog - Advisor Directory - New Entries - Industry Rankings
Articles - What is Tax Loss Harvesting? - Do transaction fees matter? - How to avoid market risk? - Does Market Timing work?
Investor Lab - Understanding MPT - Incremental vs. Fixed - How MPT Reduces Risk. - Proof: Switching Makes Sense.
SalesEngine (B2B)
Many companies are looking for Automated Fund Management Solutions. We plan to use Sales Engine for Outbound Marketing. Target Companies: • Money Managers • Registered Investment
Advisors • Pension Funds • 401k Management Firms • Educational Retirement
Funds • Regional Banks • Credit Unions
www.salesenginemedia.com
OmniFunds Schedule
Schedule Comparison
Primary Changes since launch are
hilighted in (RED)
We experienced some schedule delays, but the changes will benefit the project overall.
History & Goals
History:
May • Focused on GA Improvements
June-August • Strategic Decision to implement
Modern Portfolio Theory as an Allocation Method.
• I.B. FIX Implementation • MPT Implementation • Built our OmniFunds Web
Engine supporting MPT on Servers
• Engaged 360 Partners for Content Consultation
Goals: September • Finish Functional Site with
INTERACTIVE BROKERS as the Clearing Firm.
October • Open Site to Public • Sales Engine B2B Marketing.
November-December • Secure First B2B Contract(s)
Key Funding Drivers
• Nirvana’s Dual Focus: – OmniFunds Development – Cash Flow from Sales.
• AutoVest (TradeKing): – In play but we do not control
their marketing agenda.
• Launching OmniFunds: – We must bring OmniFunds
to market in Q4. – Currently assessing funding
requirement to maintain this important focus.
Thank You.
Intelligent Fund Management “Interim Progress Report” with Ed Downs, CEO Nirvana Systems, Inc.
August 30, 2016