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Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
The South China Sea:
Energy exploitation,
territorial claims and
military capabilities
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3
Disputes on the
surface: the
Paracel and
Spratly islands
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
Energy tensions
• Competing claims
• Harassment of survey ships
• Focal point for nationalist rhetoric
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
March 2009: USNS Impeccable
is shadowed and intercepted by
Chinese vessels.
EEZ disputes
April 2001: A US Navy EP-3 Aries II
electronic reconnaissance aircraft collides
with a PLA Navy J-8II.
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6
Sea lines of communication in
the South China Sea
IHS Fairplay AISLive
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7
Shipping up and down the South Chinese coast
IHS Fairplay AISLive
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
Geo-political conclusions
DigitalGlobe
Chengdu J-20
Ex-Varyag
• Increased Chinese belligerence
underwritten by military development
• SCS neighbours looking to US for support
and protection
• Chinese domestic pressures could force
Beijing‟s hand
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
South China Sea
Energy
Dylan Mair
Director, Far East Energy
• Claims
• Estimates
• Field Development
• UNCLOS, Treaties, Trade
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
Phu Khanh Basin
Reed Bank Basin
Khorat Swell
East Natuna Basin
Sunda Shelf
West Natuna Basin
Vung May Dalat High
SW Sarawak
Penyu Sub
Basin
China and US Estimates
Recovery factor: oil 25%, gas 70%
USGS estimates = 35 Bboe
• 11 billion barrels oil recoverable
• 300 trillion cu.ft gas recoverable
China estimates = 71 Bboe
• 50 billion barrels oil recoverable
• 210 trillion cu.ft gas recoverable
What is different? Maturity, study
area, input data, economics,
petroleum system risks
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
Proven & Possible,
Contingent Reserves
15 Bboe found
8.8 Bboe remaining
Baram Delta discoveries
• 1910-1987
• Onshore & shallow water
• 1988-2001
• Move out onto shelf
• 2002-2010
• Includes deep water
Borneo
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
Baram Delta contracts – with China claim
Malaysia
USA
Japan
Netherlands
Australia
Italy
Kuwait
Austria
France
Acreage scaled by % holding
Phu Khanh Basin
3 exploration wells, 2 since 2000
Well 124-CMT-1X:
• Proves the petroleum system
• Proves Miocene Carbonate Play
• 21m of net oil shows – not flow
Two companies recently
abandoned the basin
• one cited “lack of prospects”
Tuy Hoa 1X currently drilling
Miocene Carbonates
Potential Miocene Clastics
Potential Eocene-Oligocene Clastics
124-CMT-1X
Tuy Hoa 1X
Basin analogues helpful to
understand plays; less useful for
estimating volumes
• Play risks: trap integrity & charge
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
Spratly Islands
14
• Reed Bank Basin: 7 wells
• Dangerous Grounds: 0
• Truong Sa Basin: 3 wells
• Northwest Sabah Platform: 0
• NW Palawan Basin: coastal only
• NW Palawan Basin: coastal only
Sampaguita discovery (1976):
• “3 Tcf gas” 1.8 Tcf gas
(0.35 Bboe)
Risks: Source, Maturity, Reservoir
South China Sea
Ocean Floor
Reed Bank Basin
China ODP
Forum Energy
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
Field Development Challenges: Natuna Sea
Natuna D Alpha
• 46 Tcf gas (7.7 Bboe, 113 Tcf CO2
• Pipeline, FLNG, both, neither?
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
Offshore Rights Disputes
Contract overlap
Conflict
1. China vs Vietnam
seismic 2008
2. China vs Vietnam
seismic 2011
3. China vs Philippines,
/ Malaysia / Chinese
Taipei / Vietnam /
Brunei
4. China vs Japan 2011
5. Vietnam, China &
Malaysia
6. Malaysia & Indonesia
7. Thailand & Cambodia
8. Myanmar, India &
Bangladesh
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
UNCLOS (vastly simplified)
Legal resolution optional
• Territorial Waters 12nm
• Exclusive Economic Zone 200nm
• Continental Shelf to 350nm
• Islands – often mere „rocks‟
• Sustaining life? Above water?
Bilateral resolution
• Median lines
• Perpetuation lines
• Mutual arrangement
• Joint development
Uses
“Archipelagic
Baseline”
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
Bilateral Agreement – Joint Development
18
Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development
Authority
Joint Petroleum Development
Arrangement
PM3 Collaborative Agreement Area
Gulf of Tongkin
Japan-Korea Joint Development Zone
China-Japan Consensus
Joint Authority
1. Malaysia/Thailand JDA
2. Australia/Timor Leste JPDA
3. Korea/Japan JDA
Joint Rightholding
4. China/Vietnam Bipartite Coop.
5. Brunei/Malaysia CA-1 & CA-2
6. Malaysia/Vietnam PM-03 CAA
1
2
3
4
5 6
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
Gulf of Tongkin (Beibu Gulf)
China/Vietnam agreement
Based on median line
Exclusive but small Vietnam island
Oil & gas rights (bipartite
cooperation in red)
Joint fishing rights (blue)
Unilateral fishing control by China
Does not extend beyond the gulf
South China Sea Oil Trade
China needs long term access
Region benefits from China
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Oman
Sudan
Kuwait
UAE
Iraq
MMboe exports Crude to China
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Indonesia
Malaysia
Australia
Vietnam
Thailand
$B exports Crude to China
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
Regional Actors in the South China Sea
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
Naval Base at Yalong Bay / Sanya, China
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
Naval Base at Yalong Bay / Sanya, China
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
New Surface Combatants (2000-2011)
Destroyers • 2 x Luyang II
(Type 052C)
• 2 x Luyang I
(Type 052B)
Frigates • 4 x Jiangkai II
(Type 054A)
• 4 x Jiangwei II
(Type 053H3)
South Sea Fleet
Destroyers • 4 x Sovremenny
(Project 956E/956EM)
Frigates • 2 x Jiangkai II
(Type 054A)
• 2 x Jiangkai I
(Type 054)
• 2 x Jiangwei II
(Type 053H3)
East Sea Fleet
Destroyers • 2 x Luzhou
(Type 051C)
North Sea Fleet
50% 42%
8%
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25
New Submarines (2000-2011)
SSG • 4 x Yuan
(Type 041)
• 2 x Song
(Type 039/039G)
• 4 x Kilo
(Project 877EKM/636)
SSN
• 2 x Shang
(Type 093)
SSBN
• 2 x Jin
(Type 094)
South Sea Fleet
SSG • 6 x Song
(Type 039/039G)
• 4 x Kilo
(Project 877EKM/636)
East Sea Fleet
SSG • 4 x Song
(Type 039/039G)
North Sea Fleet
50% 36%
14%
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26
Naval Base at Zhanjiang, China
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
Chinese Civil Maritime Forces
14%
Central Military Commission
Ministry of Land Resources
State Oceanic Administration
China Marine Surveillance
(CMS)
Ministry of Agriculture
Fisheries Bureau Fisheries Law Enforcement
Command (FLEC)
Ministry of Transport
Maritime Safety Administration
(MSA)
People's Armed Police
China Coast Guard
General Administration
of Customs Customs Force
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28
Vietnam naval and air bases
Da Nang
Phu Cat Airbase
Cam Ranh Bay
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
Phu Cat Air Base, Vietnam
aircraft
brake
parachute
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
Cam Rahn Naval Base, Vietnam
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
Da Nang Naval Patrol Facility, Vietnam
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
Tsoying Naval Base, Taiwan
DigitalGlobe DigitalGlobe
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
Naval Base at Teluk Sepangar, Brunei
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
Major Surface Combatants Submarines
South China Sea Fleet Comparisons
25
2 2
27 26
6
2 1
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
2 x Scorpene-class Commissioned 2009
Physical Characteristics Length Displacement (surface) Powerplant
67 metres 1,586 tonnes Diesel electric
Firepower Tubes Missiles Torpedoes
6 x 533 mm SM39 Exocet Black Shark
1 x Hamilton and Hero-class Transferred 2011 (first commissioned 1967)
Physical Characteristics
Length Displacement (full load) Helicopter Spots
115 metres 3,353 tonnes 1
Weaponry 1 x 76 mm/62
medium gun
2 x 25 mm/87
light gun
4 x 12.7 mm
machine guns
South China Sea Fleet Comparisons
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
What can we assess about state capabilities in SCS through IMINT?
• Activity seen in proximate bases
• Taking measures to build and conceal strategic
capabilities
• May not have active occupation of an island but still
strategic interest
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37
Developments in the Paracel Islands
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
Woody Island (2005)
Occupied by:
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39
Woody Island, 14 July 2011
Occupied by:
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40
Woody Island, 14 July 2011
Occupied by:
Construction and
dredging barges at
new harbor
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 41
Woody Island, 14 July 2011
Occupied by:
Co
as
tal d
efe
nc
e p
os
itio
ns
Base HQ
Communications
facility
One of four large hangars
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 42
Developments in the Spratly Islands
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 43
Thitu Island
Sunken tanker
Control tower and
airfield operations
buildings
Local village
Occupied by:
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 44
Thitu Island
Occupied by:
New markings
delineate the
runway and
touchdown line GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 45
Southwest, Northeast Cays
Occupied by: Occupied by:
Northeast Cay
Southwest Cay
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46
Northeast Cay, 2005
Occupied by: Occupied by:
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47
Northeast Cay, 28 June 2011
Occupied by: Occupied by:
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48
Southwest Cay, 2005
Occupied by:
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 49
Southwest Cay, 28 June 2011
Occupied by:
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 50
Southwest Cay, 28 June 2011
Occupied by:
New land
reclamation
Coastal defense positions
50-metre cargo vessel offloading
onto pier
dredging
60m vessel
GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 51
Namyit Island, 2006
Occupied by:
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 52
Namyit Island, 2010
Occupied by:
DigitalGlobe
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 53
Itu Aba Island - 2006
Occupied by:
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 54
Itu Aba Island - 2010
Occupied by:
Partially obfuscated tractor-trailers on concrete
pads – vehicles may be truck-mounted
launchers
One of approximately fifteen coastal
defense positions visible on the island
Communications facility DigitalGlobe
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 55
Itu Aba Island - 2011
Occupied by:
50m pier appears to have another
50m extension under construction
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 56
Subi Reef
Occupied by:
DigitalGlobe
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 57
Swallow Reef
Occupied by:
Secured
Hangars
at HLZ
Turbine
Communications
equipment at
enfenced facility GeoEye
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 58
What can we assess about Spratlys through IMINT?
• Increased establishment, activity on islands
• Chinese bases strategic, include air, naval,
intelligence gathering, communications
• Vietnamese construction extensive – air and harbour
• Taiwanese, Chinese, Vietnamese establishing coastal
defence positions: functional but unoccupied
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 59
0
5
10
15
Brunei Indonesia Vietnam Singapore Malaysia Philippines Taiwan
Southeast Asia / Taiwan: Defence Budgets
2010 2011 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China: Defence Budget
Source: Jane‟s Defence Budgets. (Figures beyond 2011 are based on forecasts.)
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 60
0
1
2
3
4
Brunei Indonesia Vietnam Singapore Malaysia Philippines Taiwan
Southeast Asia/Taiwan: Procurement Spending
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China: Procurement Spending
Source: Jane‟s Defence Budgets. (Figures beyond 2011 are based on forecasts.)
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 61
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Indonesia
0
1
2
3
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Singapore
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Malaysia
Procurement spending: by force
0
1
2
3
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Taiwan
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Philippines
Air Force Navy Army Defence-wide
0
0.5
1
1.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Vietnam
Source: Jane‟s Defence Budgets. (Figures beyond 2011 are based on forecasts.)
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 62
Air Force Navy Army Defence-wide
China procurement spending: by force
Source: Jane‟s Defence Budgets. (Figures beyond 2011 are based on forecasts.)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 63
China: Procurement Plans
Air: multirole combat; naval multirole fighters; airborne
early warning and control; tankers; transport/attack
helicopters; medium/large transports; trainers;
Sea: aircraft carriers; landing helicopter dock,
replenishment ships; submarines; frigates; destroyers
C4ISR + Missile development
Source: IHS Jane‟s
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 64
Southeast Asia: Procurement Plans
Air: multirole combat; trainers/light fighters medium/large
tactical transports; multirole/attack helicopters;
Sea: submarines; anti-submarine warfare; frigates; offshore
patrol vessels; amphibious warfare ships; auxiliary ships;
fast attack craft
Source: IHS Jane‟s
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 65
Taiwan: Procurement Plans
Air: Combat fighters; F-16 midlife upgrades; trainers; P-3C
Orion ASW/maritime patrol; utility helicopters;
Indigenous Defence Fighter upgrades; attack
helicopters; light/tactical transports; tanker
Sea: fast attack craft; offshore/coastal patrol vessels;
submarines
Source: IHS Jane‟s
Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 66
Thank you
James Hardy, Asia Pacific Editor, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
Dylan Mair, Regional Director, CID Asia-Pacific
Alexander von Rosenbach, Editor, IHS Jane’s Armed Forces
Allison Puccioni, IHS Jane’s Image Analyst
Jon Grevatt, IHS Jane’s Industry Asia-Pacific Reporter,
Sarah McDowall, IHS Country Risk analyst
Maria Patrikainen, IHS Country Risk analyst
Bouko De Groot, IHS Fairplay Content Manager – China