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Integration and Synthesis
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Preface
Component-level data and understanding
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Component / sub-system
Sea-ice extent summer minimum
Sea-ice export and melt
Sea ice preconditioning (low
concentration, less MY vs. FY, ice thickness)
Lower troposphere – temp. and precip.
Atmospheric circulation
Clouds and aerosols (radiation)
Arctic Ocean – SST and heat content
Marine ecosystem (lower and higher-level)
Terrestrial ecosystem / vegetation / land-coverTerrestrial hydrology (rivers and lakes)
Greenland ice-sheet
Other terrestrial
Human response and other HD
Spatial
Temporal
Quant.
Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang (2008), Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years, Geophys. Res. Lett.
Schweiger, A., J. Zhang, R. Lindsay, and M. Steele (2008), Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007?, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.
Lindsay, R., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern (2008), Arctic ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend, submitted to J. Climate.
Ogi, M., I. Rigor, M. McPhee, and J.M. Wallace (2008), Record low Arctic sea ice extent in September 2007: Role of summer winds, in revision.
Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, M. Steele, and A. Schweiger (2008), What drove the dramatic retreat of Arctic sea ice during summer 2007?, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Summer 2007 analyses published or submittedUniversity of Washington
Integration and Synthesis
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Goal 2. Improve integration: cross-disciplinary and
national / international
Goal 3. Produce an integrated overview of the summer
2007 sea-ice minimum
Integration and Synthesis
1. Integration
2. Synthesis and outcomes
3. Synthesis approach
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Integration of expertise and efforts – develop
“collaboration” and “synergy”
across disciplinary, institutional and national boundaries
1. Integration
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Integration of data and understanding at the
component-level to improve understanding of linkages
and system behavior – “synthesis”
1. Integration
across disciplinary boundaries
Observing and understanding change
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Integration of data and understanding at the
component-level to improve understanding of linkages
and system behavior
2. Synthesis
Synthesis does NOT involve new collection of data
Synthesis better exploits existing data, knowledge and
methods through a focused (and consistent and
quantitative) integrative framework.
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Integration of data and understanding at the
component-level to improve understanding of linkages
and system behavior
Synthesis involves putting together disparate data and
strands of knowledge
Synthesis papers are NOT (necessarily) reviews or
overviews. There is however a 'gray zone' between data
synthesis and review papers
2. Synthesis
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers
Dickson et al. (2000): "synthesize“
Dickson et al. (2002): "analysis of long records“
Mann et al. (1998 and others): "calibration of widely distributed multi-proxy data“
Polyakov et al. (2004): "investigate using a wide range of datasets".
2. Synthesis
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers
Nordic Seas AGU monograph: several papers
Drange et al. (2005):an "overview“ to
provide a "synthesis”of "review papers"!
2. Synthesis
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
2. Synthesis
EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers
2. Synthesis
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Specific OUTCOMES of synthesis, beyond 'improved knowledge and understanding'?
2. Synthesis
New compilation and consistent comparison, plot and/or map of diverse records
Fig. 2. Dickson et al. (2002)
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Specific OUTCOMES of synthesis, beyond 'improved knowledge and understanding'?
2. Synthesis
New conceptual models, feedback loop or schematic diagram, ideally with numbers
Chapin et al. (2005)
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Specific OUTCOMES of synthesis, beyond 'improved knowledge and understanding'?
2. Synthesis
New up-to-date estimates, evaluations of budgets, parameterizations, etc.
Chapin et al. (2005)
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Approach
Synthesis can be observational data analysis
Synthesis can be based on modelling analysis
Combination of observational and modelling
2. Synthesis process:
Understanding: Faster-than-forecast recentsummer sea-ice decline
Anthropogenic: Models under-represent sea-ice sensitivity to GHGs
[Stroeve et al., 2007]
Natural variability: Increases in lower troposphere temperature due to atmos. circulation Changes in spring cloud cover [Francis and Hunter, 2006]
Changes in sea-ice circulation and ice age associated with atmos.-circulation variability [Rigor et al., 2002;
Rigor and Wallace, 2004; Maslanik et al., 2007a]
Increases in ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean[Polyakov et al., 2005; Shimada et al., 2006]
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Understanding: Drastic summer 2007 sea-ice decline
Preconditioning Sea-ice circulation and ice age Increases in ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean Increases in lower troposphere temperature
Conditioning – anomalous summer 2007 Atmospheric pressure (wind and cloud-cover) Sea-ice circulation
Feedbacks – positive, enhancement
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Understanding: Drastic summer 2007 sea-ice decline
2007: “A Perfect Storm” conjunction of factors, an anomalous one-off weather event or a foreshadow of rapid near-term transformation of the arctic system?
Synthesis, integrated analysis for system-level understanding, including impacts and predictability
Prediction for 2008 and beyond:
Accelerating mechanisms?
Decelerating mechanisms?
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Understanding: Recent, summer 2007 and future sea-ice
System behavior:Drivers, linkages and feedbacks
Synthesis, integrated analysis for system-level understanding
predictabilityimpacts
Can we learn from similar anomalies in sea ice and/or related components in the long instrumental and historical record? Paleo record?
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM