Photo courtesy of PPM Energy

Integrating Renewable Resourcesinto the Electric Grid

BPA Operational Experiences December 13, 2010

Terry OliverChief Technology Innovation Officer

Bonneville Power Administration

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

2

Introduction to BPA: System Map

McNary

Dworshak

Anderson Ranch

Palisades

Ice Harbor

GrandCoulee

Revelstroke

LowerMonumental

LittleGoose

John Day

The Dalles

Minidoka

Lower Granite

Chandler

Rosa

Albeni Falls

BlackCanyon

Boise Diversion

Mica

Keenleyside

Duncan

BPA Service AreaColumbia Basin

Federal Dams

Canadian Dams

Montana

Wyom

ingUtahNevada

California

Oregon Idaho

WashingtonCanadaU.S.A.

Non-Federal Dams

Chief Joseph

Priest Rapids

WanapumRock Island

Rocky Reach

Wells

Hells CanyonOxbow

Brownlee

Swan FallsC J Strike

American Falls

BlissUpper Salmon

Falls

BPA Transmission Grid

Libby Hungry Horse

Corps of EngineersDept. Of Reclamation

Bonneville

Green Springs

Lost Creek

Hills Creek

Lookout PointCougarDexter

Green PeterFoster Detroit

Big Cliff

Federal Columbia River Power SystemColumbia River Basin & BPA Service Area• Congress created the Bonneville Power

Administration (BPA) in 1937 to market and transmit the power produced by Bonneville Dam. Today, BPA markets power and transmission services from 31 Federal dams, one non-federal nuclear plant, and 75% (15,000 miles) of the high-voltage lines in the Pacific Northwest.

• The dams and the electrical system are known as the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS)

• BPA’s 300,000 square mile service area includes Oregon, Washington, Idaho, western Montana and small parts of Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, California and eastern Montana

• BPA sells wholesale power to publicly owned and investor-owned utilities, as well as to some large industries BPA also sells or exchanges power with utilities in Canada and other parts of the Western United States

• BPA is a self-funded, not-for-profit federal agency within DOE

• $3.5 billion in annual revenues• Headquarters in Portland, OR

3

Changing Paradigm Strong movement from conventional to variable energy resources In today’s environment, planning is a combination of art and science

– Balance reliability, economic, environmental, renewable integration, & the other public purpose objectives to optimize transmission and resources to meet the needs of the region

– How can transmission & resources be optimized to best meet the needs?

Increased coordination and collaboration required among various sub-regional organization (i.e., ColumbiaGrid, NTTG, WestConnect, CAISO) and WECC TEPPC efforts.

3

44

Wind power is growing fastWIND GENERATION CAPACITY IN THE BPA BALANCING AUTHORITY AREASequential Increases in Capacity, Based on Date When Actual Generation First Exceeded 50% of Nameplate

10/5/07

10/15/07

1/1/09

8/11/10

8/11/106/30/10

1/1/10

6/28/05

11/25/05

10/4/06

6/18/0212/18/01 1/16/02

11/26/07 5/10/084/29/08

6/6/08 12/7/08

2/12/091/27/09

11/17/07

10/25/98

8/10/06

3/22/095/1/09

8/6/099/21/09

11/30/0912/16/09

1/15/106/6/10

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

1/1/

1998

7/2/

1998

1/1/

1999

7/2/

1999

1/1/

2000

7/2/

2000

12/3

1/20

00

7/2/

2001

12/3

1/20

01

7/2/

2002

1/1/

2003

7/2/

2003

1/1/

2004

7/1/

2004

12/3

1/20

04

7/2/

2005

12/3

1/20

05

7/2/

2006

12/3

1/20

06

7/2/

2007

1/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

12/3

1/20

08

7/1/

2009

12/3

1/20

09

7/2/

2010

12/3

1/20

10

7/2/

2011

12/3

1/20

11

MW

3011 MWPlantNameplate

Capacity MW

Date When Actual Gen First Exceeded

1/2 of Current Nameplate Capacity

Cumulative Nameplate

Capacity MWVansycle 25 10/25/1998 25Stateline 90 12/18/2001 115

Klondike I 24 1/16/2002 139Condon 50 6/18/2002 189

Klondike II 76 6/28/2005 265Hopkins Ridge 157 11/25/2005 422

Leaning Juniper 100 8/10/2006 522Big Horn 200 10/4/2006 722

White Creek 200 10/5/2007 922Klondike III 226 10/15/2007 1148

Biglow Canyon 126 11/17/2007 1274Nine Canyon @ 28% 27 11/26/2007 1301

Goodnoe Hills 96 4/29/2008 1397Nine Canyon @ 52% 24 5/10/2008 1421

Klondike 3a 75 6/6/2008 1496Arlington 103 12/7/2008 1599

Willow Creek 72 1/1/2009 1671Pebble Springs 100 1/27/2009 1771

Hay Canyon 100 2/12/2009 1871Wheatfield 97 3/22/2009 1968Tuolumne 137 5/1/2009 2105

Biglow Canyon Phase 2 149 8/6/2009 2254Windy Flats Dooley (phase 1) 30 9/21/2009 2284Windy Flats Dooley (phase 2) 233 11/30/2009 2517

Harvest 100 12/16/2009 2617Combine Hills 63 1/1/2010 2680

Star Point 100 1/15/2010 2780Linden Farm 50 6/6/2010 2830

Coastal Energy 6 6/30/2010 2836Biglow Canyon Phase 2 (add'l) 14 8/11/2010 2850

Biglow Canyon Phase 3 161 8/11/2010 3011

5

Wind Generation Capacity Connected to BPA’s Transmission System is Growing

66

Much of the Wind Resource Serving Load Outside BPA Balancing Authority (BA)

Location of Load Being Served

BPA BA Other NW BA

California (33% RPS)

Unknown Customer

2010 3,600 475 775 2,350 N/A2012 5,950 800 2,075 3,075 N/A2020

Scenario 9,800 1,200 1,700 2,100 4,800

Year

Wind Generation Inside BPA Balancing Authority

77

Wind Generation Experiences Significant Ramps

8

Inaccuracy in Wind Generation Forecasts Increase the Need for Other Generation Resources to Maintain Reliability

1. Hour Ending 11 scheduling window closes2. Hour Ending 11 intra-hour scheduling window closes3. Hour Ending 11 intra-hour schedule

1

32

Legend

Total Schedule without Intra-Hour

Total Schedule With Intra-Hour

Total Generation

Solutions (to date)

Add transmission capacity Fixed reserves + DSO216 Situation awareness – wind desk + data Changed operations – ½ hour schedules Experiments:

– Gen imbalance self supply – Dynamic transfer schedules

9

Next Gen Solutions

6 dimension wind visualization (pat pending) Synchrophasors applications for grid

control Technical operations improvements

– Predictive state estimation– Faster resolution of uncertainty

Control beyond impedence

10

11

New WrinkleWhile the water supply volume for the Columbia River has been below average for 10 of the past 11

years, generation oversupply can occur in even below average water years.Years in red had at least one week of non-fish spill at Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph in light load hours.

Water Year Runoff (Oct-Sep) at The Dalles1929-2010*

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

1929

1931

1933

1935

1937

1939

1941

1943

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Octo

ber -

Sep

tem

ber R

unof

f (m

af)

Average = 135 maf*WY 2010: Observed Oct-Aug, Estimated for September as of 9/26

12

Hydro IntegrationThe timing of the runoff is a huge factor in FCRPS operations

Unregulated April-August Flows at The Dalles Dam

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1

cfs

2010flows

top-25%avg¹

dailymedian,1929-99

NWRFCMay MMFcst²

¹ Average daily flows of the 18 highest April-August volume years (top 25%), 1929-99.

² May Mid-Month forecast for April-August volume from the NW River Forecast Center; plotting April observed and distributing remainder of forecast equally by month based on percent of average flows.

13

Background Due to the inherent uncertainty in weather, the forecasted water supply volume can vary

significantly over the course of a year.– Yellow shaded areas mark periods when the forecast changed by 10 Maf or more within two

months.– If there is sufficient turbine capability and load, 10 Maf could be as much as 8200 MW-months

of FCRPS generation in the Spring.

Jan - Jul Monthly Final Volume Forecasts at The Dalles (Maf)

2003 2004 2005 2010January 80.5 103.0 85.6 88.5February 75.6 100.0 82.4 79.2March 74.9 92.9 70.7 71.8April 85.3 84.2 73.8 69.7May 90.2 79.5 74.7 70.9June 89.3 85.1 79.8 74.0July 89.3 83.7 81.2 81.9ACTUAL 87.7 83.0 81.3 84.7

14

Weather Conditions in June 2010

Extremely wet and cool weather pattern dominated Pacific Northwest weather.

Most of the region saw precipitation amounts significantly above average.

In addition to precipitation, normal snow melt would have contributed between 3 and 7 1/2 inches across the basin, but the precipitation took an additional 1/2 to 3 inches of the snow pack with it.

Seattle/Portland/Spokane (BPA’s “load centers”) temperatures averaged 2.6 degrees below normal during this period.– In June, below average temperatures implies below average loads.

Division Averages JUN TO DAY 14 Obs'd Depart % avg

COLUMBIA ABOVE COULEE 1.96 0.85 176% SNAKE RV AB ICE HARBOR 1.98 1.30 291% COLUMBIA AB THE DALLES 2.02 1.18 241%

15

Short-Term Forecasts The combination of the natural weather-induced streamflows and the

increased discharge at upstream reservoirs resulted in a significant increase in the “regulated” inflows into Lower Granite and Grand Coulee during this period.

16

Short-Term Forecasts Combining the Columbia and Lower Snake pieces resulted in the following picture of “regulated”

flows into McNary.– The highest 7-day average McNary flows in this period was 355 kcfs.– HYDSIM 70-year studies indicate that there is a 1-in-3 chance of reaching these levels of McNary flow for a

month or longer.

17

Power Market Conditions Mid-Columbia off-peak prices were negative June 9 – 14. The California ISO reported that prices were as low as -20 $/MWh.

Mid-C Peak and Off-Peak weighted average day-ahead prices with High and Low BandsSource: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) --- June 2010

-$8

-$6

-$4

-$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

$24

$26

$28

$30

$32

$34

$36

6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30

Date

Pric

e ($

/MW

-hr)

On-Peak Prices Off-Peak Prices

18

Power Market Conditions BPA balancing authority generation significantly

exceeded load in early June.– Federal and non-federal resources are shown

19

Transmission Operations Intermittent outages and reduced capacity on both AC and DC interties to California Intermittent 25% derates on the Northern Intertie to British Columbia Reductions in transmission availability limited BPA’s ability to find power demand and resulted

in increased lack of market spill BPA declared a “no touch” condition from June 11-14 for control system automation.

– No computer system updates or testing to ensure no interruption to transmission dispatcher computer systems.

20

Impacts of Wind Generation Balancing Reserves

– Because of concern about exceeding system TDG levels, BPA reduced balancing reserves• Approximately 75 hours of DEC reserve reductions and 1 hour of INC reserve reduction• Reducing DEC reserves allowed the FCRPS to generate at higher levels during wind ramps and had a

minor impact on lack of market spill– In hindsight, a more effective way to manage system TDG levels may be to reduce the amount

of INC reserves• This would have allowed for the potential to increase on-peak hydro generation, thus decreasing spill

BPA balancing authority wind data