Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe
Co-ordinating Team:
Jan Rotmans
Chris Anastasi
Marjolein van Asselt
Caroline van Bers
Dale Rothman
Sandra Greeuw
Joanne Mellors
Jasper Grosskurth
Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community
Rio de Janeiro, October 6-8, 2001
THE VISIONS PROJECT
• European Commission: Directorate-General Research and Development
• Nine partner institutes across Europe
• Co-ordinator: ICIS
• Duration: 1998 - 2001
GOAL
To develop challenging futures for Europe in an innovative, scientifically sound way
on behalf of the social debate and strategic planning
RESEARCH PARADIGM
Integrated Assessment (IA) is an interdisciplinary process of structuring
knowledge elements from various scientific disciplines in such a manner that all relevant
aspects of a societal problem are considered in their mutual coherence for the benefit of
decision-making
INTEGRATING SCALES
GLOBAL TRENDS
EUROPEAN SCENARIOS
North West UK
REGIONAL SCENARIOS
Venice
Represents scenario
Green Heart
INTEGRATED VISIONS
INTEGRATING SECTORS, FACTORS AND ACTORS
Sectors • energy• water• transport• infrastructure
Factors • equity• employment• consumption
behaviour• environmental
degradation
Actors• governmental
organisations• NGOs• businesses• scientists
INTEGRATING METHODS
• Participatory methods (workshops, focus groups, interviews, expert panels)
• Models (QUEST, Green Heart model, PHOENIX, Worldscan)
FORMS OF PARTICIPATION
• Storyline Workshopsfree format / predefined inputlarger groupheterogeneous / homogeneous
• Focus Groups predefined inputsmaller grouphomogeneous
• In-depth Interviewspredefined inputindividualsrange of backgrounds
INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK
Participatory element Analytical tools
InterviewsParticipatory modelling
Northwest-UKNorthwest-UKModel-supported
REGIONSREGIONS
Story-linesExpert groupsEnvisioning workshops
Data-based and Model- supportedEUROPEEUROPE
WORLDWORLDExpert group Data collection & Trend analyses
Green HeartGreen HeartModel-supported
Tensions group Transitions,Cultural Theory &Models
VeniceVeniceFocus groups Interviews
Narrative & ICT tools
Story-linesExpert groupsEnvisioning workshops
EUROPE Research Process
Storyline workshop
Aggregation Enriching
Evaluation workshop
Maturing
Tensions workshop
Screening Developing Rephrasing
Linkages workshop
Integration workshop
Strengthening Integration
Expert workshop
PARTICIPATION
DESK WORK
EUROPE
• Knowledge is King: What if the nature of technological development encourages local capacity building while it facilitates globalisation?
• Convulsive Change: What if climate change and other environmental problems are highly detrimental, outpacing society’s ability to adapt?
• Big is Beautiful?: What if the ‘merger principle’ not only affects major industries, but also deeply affects social, cultural, institutional and ecological patterns?
INTEGRATION PROCEDURE
Storylines ImagesSectoralscenarios Storylines
Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios
Vision
Scenario pairs Scenario pairs Scenario pairs
Scenario quartet
SELECTION PROCEDURE
• Similarities and tensions in terms of: dynamics, management style, outlooks, driving forces.
• Combinations with the most emergent patterns from Europe - region interaction
• Every European scenario should appear at least once
INTEGRATED VISION
• Living on the edge
• Europe in transition
• Shadows of Europe Ltd.
Underlying scenarios:
Europe: knowledge is king
North-West UK: sustainable communities
Green Heart: technology rules
Venice: cyberia
Dynamics
• Transition to high-tech society with a human face • Coupled transitions: economy, technology,
lifestyle, work, governance and demography• European and regional developments strengthen
each other • Transition with the necessary problems
Characteristics
• Societal divide: ‘connected’ and ‘unconnected’• Mass migration from East Europe• Societal battlefield: revolution of the unconnected• Network-governance • Large participation on all levels • Co-existence of two groups
Underlying scenarios:
Europe: knowledge is king
North-West UK: sustainable communities
Green Heart: technology rules
Venice: cyberia
SOCIAL CULTURE
POLITICAL
UNIQUE FEATURES OF VISIONS
• Bottom-up and participatory• Surprises• Complexity• Integrated (multi-scale and multi-
domain)
The process of envisioning is at least as important as the the ultimate
visions themselves
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
Communicating the messages resulting from the envisioning
process is difficult.
Difficulties with engaging stakeholders
• availability• interests• recognisability• credibility
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
Structure and composition of stakeholder group should
determine the kind of participatory method to use
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
Future scenario exercises should be more stakeholder-oriented than
purely stakeholder-driven
There is a big gap between the increasing complexity of our
society and the analytical tools (IAmodels) that try to address this
complexity
IAModels only cover a small partof the required complexity
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
There is definitely a need for integrated visions (multi-scale,
multi-domain, multi-perspective),but there are still hurdles to
overcome
WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED?
• Participation and Modelling• Transitions• Uncertainty
RESEARCH AGENDA
