Integrated Modelling for Prediction and …Saman Razavi Second Annual General Meeting, June 12-13, 2019 Integrated Modelling for Prediction and Management of Change in Canada’s Major

Saman RazaviSecond Annual General Meeting, June 12-13, 2019

Integrated Modelling for Prediction and Management

of Change in Canada’s Major River Basins (IMPC)

1

Overarching Challenges

(I) Failure to link important features of climate, hydrology, water quality,ecosystem, and water management systems. Important positive and negativefeedback loops, tipping points, and dynamical behaviour of these human-natural systems are not included in current modelling schemes.

(II) Fragmentation in operations, management, and governance of Canadianwater resources systems leads to piecemeal science, policy, and modelling.Our research transcends artificial boundaries (international, provincial, andlocal) and provides information at scales appropriate for decision-making.

(III) Current practice assumes stationarity, the idea that the past empirical recordis a basis for understanding the present and future conditions. We now knowthat stationarity is dead and that our environmental systems are in thethroes of unprecedented climate and environment change.

Overarching Objective

“This program aims to develop a pan-Canadian integrated modelling platform todiagnose, simulate, and predict interactionsamongst natural and human-driven water-resource components of the changing Earthand environmental systems, and to deliverrobust decision making tools and solutionsfor uncertain future water resources,considering the range of stakeholder needsin Canada’smajor river basins.”

-20 -10 0 10 20

Average Summer Precipitation in 1986-2005

% Change in Average Precipitation (CMIP5)

2016-2035

+2%

-8% to +10%

+2.3%

-18% to +18%2080-2099

+2.5%

-10% to +12%2046-2065

Cascade of Uncertainty

(CMIP5)

4

Asong Z. E., Hawkins, E., Razavi, S., et al. Climate change projectionsfor scenario-led hydrological impacts assessment: Rethinking how weinterpret the cascade of uncertainty for effective adaptation. In Prep.

IMPC

Great-Lakes Basin

Today Future

System State

Is the “predict-then-plan” paradigm obsolete? (Top-Down Decision Making)

5

Alternative Future States of the World

How can we minimize vulnerability when the future deviates fromour assumptions about it?(Bottom-Up, “Robust” Decision Making: “Scenario Discovery” and “Building Resilience”)

“Resilience” is the capacity to buffer and adapt

to major changes and shocks and therefore to maintain function.

Simulate the coupled human-natural system under the full range of scenarios

Identify alternative future states of the world (including development and policy scenarios)

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Identify and address vulnerabilities

Research Themes

A1: Atmospheric Modelling

A2: Hydrologic Modelling

A3: Water Quality Modelling

A4: River Ice Modelling

A5: Model Intercomparison

A6: Floodplain Mapping

A7: Uncertainty Characterization

Research Themes








B1: Basin-wide WaterResource Modelling

B2: Environmental Demands

B3: Hydro-economic Modelling

Research Themes








C1: Future Scenario Generation

C2: Optimization and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis




Research Themes













D1: Outreach and User Engagement

D2: Decision Support Systems

Research Themes








D1: Outreach and User Engagement

D2: Decision Support Systems






Lead Investigators

Progress To Date

End of IMPC (phase 1)Aug 2020

End of GWFAug 2023

Visions, plans, challenges,…

Look Into The Future

Jul, 2017

First Annual General Meeting

Jul 18-19, 2018

Kick-Off Workshop

Sept 14-15, 2017 Second Annual General Meeting

Jun 12-13, 2019

Inception Report

First Annual Report

First Meeting

Report

Second Annual Report

Atmospheric Model

Hydrologic Model Water Quality Model

Hydro-economy, Water Management, and Decision

Support Model

From the inception …

Short-term Forecast and Real-time Operation

Medium-term Prediction and Weekly to Seasonal Management

Long-term Projection and Seasonal to multi-decadal Planning

Atmospheric Models

Terrestrial Models(including groundwater, small lakes and wetlands, energy, nutrient, and

carbon)

Riverine Models(including large lake models, deltas,

physical, chemical, biological)

Management Models

Hydrological Modelling (MESH/VIC/HYPE/CRHM) Flood Forecasting - GEM-Hydro Catchment water quality modelling (SPARROW, HYPE,)

Next generation modelling (CHM) - hydrology & water quality

Data assimilation – snow, soil streamflow

Flood Plain Modelling and Risk Analysis

River and lake water quality modelling

Integration of water quality modelling with hydrologic modelling (emphasis on forecast)

River Ice Modelling and data assimilation

Data assimilation – SWOT, river ice, drone-based Lidar

Real-term (operational) water resource system modelling

Medium- to long-term water resource system modelling (MODSIM/WEAP)

Hydro-economic modelling

Seasonal forecasting based on teleconnection, ocean

temperature, and other climate signals

NWP - WRF runs & coupled with WRF-Hydro

Developing advanced visualization tools for stakeholder engagement

Time Horizons and Objectives

Core Modelling Positions

Core Computer Science Positions

ECCC GEM

From the inception …

16

Evapotraspiration(mm)

Visualization Tools

Dashboard for Water Management

Streamflows

Visit http://gwf-demo.usask.ca/(In Progress)

http://gwf-demo.usask.ca/

Agenda Highlights: Lightning Talks (HQP) Café Table Discussions Modelling Integration Plenary User Panel: Vision and Future Planning

Review of the Meeting Agenda

Ag-Water ExpoWith attendees from:• Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada• Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture• Saskatchewan Water Security Agency• Saskatchewan Crop Insurance

Corporation• Saskatchewan Association of Rural

Municipalities• Saskatchewan Ministry of

Environment• Saskatchewan Cattlemen's

Association• Mistawasis Nehiyawak• Muskeg Lake Cree Nation • Redberry Lake Biosphere Reserve• South Saskatchewan River

Watershed Stewards• Ducks Unlimited Canada• North Saskatchewan River Basin

Council

And more….

Exciting Two Days Ahead!

Documents

Integrated Modelling for Prediction and …Saman Razavi Second Annual General Meeting, June 12-13, 2019 Integrated Modelling for Prediction and Management of Change in Canada’s Major