Upload
cameron-ryan
View
213
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
February 28, 2006Long-Term Plan Annual Update
Carl Fitz
Recovery Model Development and Calibration
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Integrated Ecological Assessment:Status of the
Everglades Landscape Model
Model Applications Support Unit,
Hydrologic and Environmental Systems Modeling Department
1.00 92.00 183.00 274.00 365.004.94
5.72
6.501
1
112
2
2
2
3
3
3 3
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
ELM and the Long-Term Plan
“predict recovery of existing P gradients...” “predict changes in P gradients as result of
perturbation...” “predict changes in P gradients in response to new
inputs...” predict effects of STA “by-pass” flows or “changed
discharge points” compare “with-project to future-without” to assess
benefits does not directly assess “need for additional STAs or
BMPs” evaluate “regional system changes in P gradients”...
due to management actions
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Presentation:
1. What is ELM?
2. How can it be applied?
3. How well does it work?
4. Is it ready for external review?
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
ELM Goals:
• Integrate hydrology, biology, and nutrient cycling in spatially
explicit, dynamic simulations
• Provide a framework for collaborative field research and other
modeling efforts
• Understand and predict the long-term, relative responses of the
landscape to different management scenarios
Develop a modeling tool for integrated ecological assessment
of water management scenarios for Everglades restoration
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
ELM Objectives: Specific Performance Measures
Measures
Phosphorus: concentration in surface water
Phosphorus: accumulation in ecosystem
...Other ecosystem measures with model updates
Scales
Temporal: Annual trends over decadal time periods
Spatial: 1-km resolution gradients across tens of km
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
ELM Design: Integrating ecological interactions
1. Boxes change in response to each other
2. Arrows denote simple model “mechanisms” of WHY things change
3. Using simple “WHYs”, model is not restricted to statistical “fits” of past behavior
4. Thus, apply understanding to predict future recovery, restoration
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
ELM Design: Overview
Hydrology• Requires daily flow data through water control structures
(observed, or from model such as SFWMM)
• ELM distributes water & nutrients across marshes and canals
Water Quality• Dynamics of primary phosphorus mechanisms in marshes
• Changing soils and plants greatly affect marsh water quality
Ecology• Theory: Considers theories of basic ecosystem structure and
function
• Practice: Simple-ecosystem interactions (i.e. the WHYs) capture the long term ecological gradients
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Presentation:
1. What is ELM?
2. How can it be applied?
3. How well does it work?
4. Is it ready for external review?
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
(hypothetical example)
Historical scenario, 1981-2000: • actual flows • actual (historical) phosphorus inflow concentrations
Hypothetical scenario, 1981-2000: • actual flows• 10 ppb phosphorus inflow concentrations
Use model to indicate the likely spatial reduction in phosphorus impacts across the Greater Everglades, with lower inflow phosphorus concentrations
Example Application:What might have happened if clean water had entered
the Everglades in the past?
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Example Application:What might have happened if clean water had entered
the Everglades in the past?
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Example Application: project alternative comparisons
Everglades gradient
FL
OW
2 km
4 km
6 km
8 km
STA 3/4 outflow
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Example Application
CERP 2050wProj simulation: 5 scenarios,
with STA outflow concentrations ranging from 10 to 30 ppb
FL
OW
2 km
4 km
6 km
8 km
STA 3/4 outflow
Evaluate Everglades gradient downstream of STA 3/4 outflow
AtmosphericLoad
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Presentation:
1. What is ELM?
2. How can it be applied?
3. How well does it work?
4. Is it ready for external review?
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
How well does ELM work?
Water Quality: Regional analysis of
phosphorus (TP)
concentration in
surface water
median bias of
predictions in marsh
= 1 ppb of TP
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
How well does ELM work?
Water Quality: Matching gradients of
TP concentration
in surface water
TP in Marsh Surface WaterWCA-2A Transects, 1994 - 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Distance from canal (km)
Me
an
TP
co
nc
. (p
pb
)
Simulated: F transect
Observed: F transect
Simulated: E transect
Observed: E transect
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
How well does ELM work?
Ecology: Matching gradients ofecosystem phosphorus accumulation rate
Ecology:Matching gradients ofsoil peat accretion rate
P Accumulation in EcosystemWCA-2A Transects, 1981-2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Distance from canal (km)
Ra
te (
mg
/m^
2/y
r)
Simulated F transect
Simulated E transect
Observed (Robbins 2004, approx.values & locations)
Peat accretionWCA-2A Transects, 1981-2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Distance from canal (km)
Pe
at
ac
cre
tio
n (
mm
/yr)
Simulated: F transect
Simulated: E transect
Observed (Reddy et al.)
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Ecology:
Patterns of other
ecological variables
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
How well does ELM work?
Hydrology• Regional calibration/validation performance comparable to
SFWMM
Water Quality• Effectively predict long term trends in phosphorus gradients
• 1 ppb = median bias of TP concentration in marsh surface water, across region over a 20 year period
Ecology• Effectively predict long term trends in ecological gradients:
• Long-term phosphorus accumulation gradient is good match to observed
• Other gradients and patterns of important ecological variables evaluated for consistency with available data
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Presentation:
1. What is ELM?
2. How can it be applied?
3. How well does it work?
4. Is it ready for external review?
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Documentation & Review
Existing Documentation• Description of Everglades, objectives and conceptual model
• Verbal, mathematical, and graphical description of algorithms
• All source code functions & variables documented (Doxygen)
• All input data documented, including “metadata”
• Numerical & graphical summaries of calibration/validation
• Comprehensive sensitivity analysis, aspects of uncertainty
• User’s Guide
Peer Review• Peer-reviewed science publications, 1996 - 2003
• Multi-agency review by CERP RECOVER Team, 2002
• Independent peer review, upcoming(?)
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Value of ELMThe model is capable of the following applications:
CERP “predict average annual water column (or soil) phosphorus
concentrations in a spatial pattern...”
EFA/Long-Term Plan “predict recovery of existing P gradients...” “predict changes in P gradients as result of perturbation...” “predict changes in P gradients in response to new inputs...” predict effects of STA “by-pass” flows or “changed discharge
points” compare “with-project to future-without” to assess benefits
Operations compare “P gradient changes”...due to LO... “diversion to
WCAs” evaluate “regional system changes in P gradients”... due to
management actions
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Supplementary slides follow
The end
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Ecological
Processes
Integrated Ecological Assessment http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/wrp/elm
Ecological
Processes