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Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises. RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato New Zealand. This presentation will:. Provide an overview of integrated assessment and modelling - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises
RICHARD WARRICK
International Global Change Institute (IGCI)University of Waikato
New Zealand
·I·G·C·I·
This presentation will:
• Provide an overview of integrated assessment and modelling
• Describe the SimCLIM system for national and sub-national assessments
• Introduce the hands-on training session
Part 1:
Integrated Assessment and Models
What is meant by “assessment”?Integrated Assessment Models
- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -
- Climate impacts and adaptation - Assessment Process Assessment Process
Products, e.g. National Communications
Project development time
Technical analyses and studiesTechnical analyses and studies
PA
ST
FU
TU
RE
AssessmentsAssessmentsWhat do we know?
What don’t we know?
What needs to be done?Priority gaps and needs?
What is meant by “integrated” assessment?
Integrated Assessment Models
- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -
Global
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Regional
Local
sectoral
agriculture
wetter drier
Vertically integrated
Global Warming
Global
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Regional
Local
sectoral
agriculture
wetter drier
Vertically integrated
Global Warming
Global Warming
Global
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Regional
Local
sectoral
agriculture watercoastal health
Horizontally integrated
Drought RiskCoastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk
Global Warming
Global
- what is meant by integrated assessment? -
Regional
Local
sectoral
agriculture watercoastal health
Fully integrated
Drought RiskCoastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk
wetter drier
What is meant by integrated assessment “model”?
Integrated Assessment Models
- Part I: Integrated Assessment Models -
Atmospheric Chemistry
Ocean Carbon Cycle
Atmospheric Composition
Climate
Ocean•Temperature
•Sea level
Climate & Sea Level
Agriculture, Livestock &
Forestry
Energy SystemOther Human
Systems
Coastal System
Human Systems
Crops & Forests
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
Unmanaged Ecosystems
Hydrology
Ecosystems
Key components of full-scale IAMs
(Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996)
EXAMPLE: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)(NIES, Japan)
Study Area of AIM(NIES, Japan)
End-to-end characterisation of IAMs
(Weyant et al., IPCC 1996)
Atmospheric Chemistry
Ocean carbon Cycle
Atmospheric Composition
Hydrology
Health & other
Coastal System
Crops & Forestry
Impacts
Agriculture
Other Emissions
Energy System
Emissions
Climate
Ocean•Temperature
•Sea level
Climate & Sea Level
EXAMPLE:MAGICC/SCENGEN
MAGICC
Greenhouse gas emissions
Global mean temperature change
SCENGEN GCM patterns Climatologies
Regional Scenarios of Climate Change
Part 2:
The SimCLIM models for national and sub-national assessments
The SimCLIM ModelsThe SimCLIM Models
? MAGICC outputs
? Other outputs
? User-defined model parameters
Global-Mean Temperature and Sea-
Level Projections
National Climate Change Scenario Generator
Sectoral Impact Models
Effects
? Climatologies ? GCM patterns ? Synthetic
changes
Coast Agriculture
Water Health
(the “first generation” structure)
SimCLIM Models
VANDACLIM (island version)
BDCLIM (Bangladesh)
VANDACLIM (fictitious country)
PACCLIM (Pacific Island region)
OZCLIM (Australia)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
CLIMPACTSCLIMPACTS ( (New Zealand)New Zealand)
CHAMP (New Zealand)
FijiClim (Viti Levu)
CANCLIM (Canada)
HOTSPOTS (NZ)
TOPOCLIM (NZ)
For Example: FIJICLIM
Mean Annual Precipitation 2070
Climate:
Example: FijiCLIM, Dalo Suitability
El Nino Drought Climate Change 2050 with El Nino Drought
Current Average Climate
GREEN = highly suitable soils and climate
BROWN = least suitable
Impacts:
SimCLIMs can be used to:SimCLIMs can be used to:
• Describe baseline climatesDescribe baseline climates• Examine current climate variability and extremesExamine current climate variability and extremes• Assess risks – present and futureAssess risks – present and future• Investigate adaptation – present and futureInvestigate adaptation – present and future• Create climate change scenariosCreate climate change scenarios• Conduct sensitivity analysesConduct sensitivity analyses• Project sectoral impacts of climate and sea level changeProject sectoral impacts of climate and sea level change• Examine risks and uncertaintiesExamine risks and uncertainties• Facilitate integrated impact analysesFacilitate integrated impact analyses
A customised, prototype SimCLIM model can be developed for AIACC projects
Data Required:
• Spatially interpolated monthly climatologies
• Time-series climate data for stations (monthly or daily)
• Downscaled, standardised patterns of monthly temperature and precipitation changes from GCMs.
• Digital elevation model (optional)
Part 3:
The “hands-on” training exercise
Objective
To gain practical experience in:
• selected elements of integrated assessment
• using an Integrated Assessment Model
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
The “Republic of Vanda Islands”The “Republic of Vanda Islands”(an imaginary country)(an imaginary country)
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Using:
The Island VersionDeveloped by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Problem Focus: Risk Reduction
• Assess current climatic risks• Assess adequacy of current adaptation to climatic
variability and extremes• Develop scenarios of future climate changes• Assess possible future changes in risk• Assess adaptation options for reducing future
risks• Estimate incremental cost ratios
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Choice of 4 Training Groups• Coastal Flood Risk (storm surges)
• Agricultural Drought Risk
• Risks of Groundwater shortage
• Drought risk to water supply
Aosis
Aosis
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
Sessions
• All four training groups in each session
• No more than four persons per group
• Each session repeated four times
- Hands-on Training Exercise -
The End…
Thank you for your attention