Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake Impact Assessment · Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake Impact Assessment for Mitigation, Response and Recovery Amr Elnashai,

Mid-America Earthquake Center

Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake

Impact Assessmentfor Mitigation, Response and Recovery

Amr Elnashai, FREng

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA

Mexico City, 27-30 June 2011


Overview

The Total Risk Management Cycle

Earthquake Impact Assessment Uses and Importance

Components

Example application

Integration of Multidisciplinary Communities Integration of engineering disciplines and sub-disciplines

Integration of social, economic and physical sciences and engineering

Risk Consequences Modeling Flood Potential

Transportation and Utilities Systems

Temporary housing optimization


The Total Risk Management Cycle

Risk

Identification

Consequence

Assessment

Planning and

Mitigation

Response to

Incident

Recovery

to Normality

Hazard-Generated

Needs

Response-

Generated Needs


Components of Earthquake Impact Assessment

Hazard

maps

Inventory

data

Visuali-

zation

Damage

prediction

Integration

Fragility

functions


Importance of Earthquake Impact Assessment

Determination of credible worst

case damage and loss

Prioritization of mitigation

plans

Aid in development of response

and recovery efforts

Emergency response capabilities

Utility network viability

Transportation network capacity

Tool to educate public on

earthquake preparedness


Impact Assessment Scenario Components

Location of earthquake and length of fault

Attenuation – how does shaking change with distance?

Site response – what is the soil type?

Liquefaction – how likely is it that the soil fails and the structure sinks?

Inventory – what are the asset we have?

Fragility – how is each asset type affected by the shaking?


Components of Impact Assessment

and Challenges in Defining the

Components


Hazard Definition

Different shaking

parameters are

required to determine

vulnerability of

different infrastructure

types


Inventory

Defines population and the built environment

Major Inventory Categories Population demographics

General buildings

Essential facilities

Transportation lifelines

Utility lifelines

High Potential-Loss Facilities

High-rise, long span

Monuments

Stadia, arenas


Fragility Functions

Fragility curves relate ground

shaking to likelihood of being in

a certain damage state

Numerous ground shaking

parameters are employed in

fragility curves

A lack of fragilities for notable

critical infrastructure (cell

towers, long-span bridges and

high-rise buildings) hinder

comprehensive assessment


Social Impact and Economic Losses Models

Provide estimates of displaced population and shelter requirements

Advanced modeling may include Feeding requirements

Housing requirements

Medical requirements

Search and rescue requirements

Direct economic losses include loss of infrastructure value and replacement cost

Indirect economic losses include business interruption and loss of market share


Example Application

The New Madrid Seismic Zone Scenario


Earthquakes in the New Madrid Region

Series of events, Mw ~ 7.2 - 8.1

Damage Area = 600,000 km2

Perception Area = 5,000,000 km2

Damage to structures not

significant due to sparse

population

Significant changes to the

topography

Large waves in the Mississippi

Sand BlowsLiquefaction

ducts

Roots Uplifts


Estimated regional impacts for sequential rupture scenario:

715,000 damaged buildings

Over 2.6 million people without electric power at Day 1

More than 85,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities)

$300 billion in DIRECT economic losses

50 million tons of debris

Estimated Impacts

StateNo. Damaged

Buildings

No. Damaged

Bridges

Power

Outages*Casualties

Total Direct

Economic Loss

Alabama

Arkansas

Illinois

Indiana

15,400

162,000

45,000

14,000

0

1,100

160

0

235,000

330,000

237,000

222,000

1,000

15,300

6,300

2,000

$14 billion

$40 billion

$44 billion

$12 billion

Kentucky

Mississippi

Missouri

Tennessee

68,400

57,500

87,000

265,000

250

10

1,000

1,050

329,000

233,000

313,000

709,000

6,900

6,100

14,100

34,200

$53 billion

$17 billion

$49 billion

$69 billion

* Represents the number of

households without electric

power on Day 1.


Interdisciplinary Collaboration for

Engineering Impact Assessment


Open Source System for Physical Earthquake Impact

Impact Assessment

Instrumentation

Fragility Analysis

Model Calibration Hazard

Characterization


Open Source System for Physical Earthquake Impact


Interdisciplinary Collaboration

for Comprehensive Impact Assessment


Open Source Integrated System for Earthquake Impact

Loss Models Implementation

HCI Applications for MAEviz

Deployment on the Grid

Quantitative Social Impact

Decision Dynamics

Organizational Structure

Economic Impact Models

Ground Motion Maps

Strong-motion Records

Social

SciencesInformation

TechnologyCRM

Framework

Framework Development

The Three Test Beds

Uncertainty Management

Engineering

Engines

Uniform Fragilities

Dynamic Transportation

Networks & Interaction

Inventory Technologies

Multi-hazards InteractionNISRAF

Consequence-based Risk Management - CRM


Stakeholder-centric Earthquake Impact Assessment

Framework

Development

Information

Technology

Social

Science

Engineering

Engines

Education

Outreach

Memphis Test Bed

Transportation Test Bed

Emergency Management Test Bed

South CarolinaSouth Carolina

Federal Highway

Administration

FEMAFEMA


Advanced Features in Open Source MAEviz

Flooded facilities

Dynamic traffic flow

Utility networks loss of service

Utility networks interaction

Multiple earthquakes

Optimization of temporary housing

http://mae.cee.uiuc.edu/software_and_tools/maeviz.html


Multi-objective Optimization of Temporary Housing

1.1 Employment and educational opportunities

1.2 Displacement distance

1.3 Housing quality

1.4 Delivery time

3.1 Geology and soils

3.2 Water quality

3.3 Air quality

3.4 Noise

2.1 Hazardous geographic locations

2.2 Hazardous geographic areas

1.5 Capacity to support medical and safety needs

Others …

4.1 Infrastructure andlifeline systems cost

4.2 Installation andconstruction costs

4.3 Rental/ownershipcost

4.4 Operating costs

Others …

1.6 Access to essentialutilities and services

Socioeconomic Model

Safety Model Environmental Model

Comprehensive Cost Model


Optimization Solutions and Tradeoffs


Disaster Impact Assessment – Why and How

Essential for informed decision-making on

mitigation, response and recovery … planning

and execution

Everything can be modeled; mathematical,

informational or hybrid

Communities are best served by opening source

codes

Interdisciplinary teams are critical for success

Information technology provides collaboration

tools that facilitate interdisciplinary interactions

from start to end

Documents

Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake Impact Assessment · Integrated and Interdisciplinary Earthquake Impact Assessment for Mitigation, Response and Recovery Amr Elnashai,