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Student Investment Fund Stock Report Analysts: Kevin Reinecke & J.D. Kaad Intel NASDAQ: INTC Recommendation: Buy Market Cap: $74.09 Billion Recent Price: $13.80 (12/01/08) Target Price: $23.35 Sector: Technology Sub-Sector: Semiconductors/Microprocessors HIGHLIGHTS Largest semiconductor chip maker in the world. Large Cap Growth Stock with Market Cap of $74.09 Billion. Dividend Yield: 4.1% Intel maintains 90% revenue market share in notebook computers and 82% in desktops in the microprocessor market. Five consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises. Higher percentage margins and returns than the industry and AMD over the last five years. 66% of shares held by mutual funds. Expanding focus on technology to support the need for enhanced mobility. KEY STATISTICS Intel AMD ROIC (5-yr avg) 27.10% -51.50% WACC 10.49% 10.50% Dividend Yield 4.10% 0.00% P/E Ratio 11.00 N/A Price/Sales 1.94 0.20 EPS 1.25 -5.74 EVA (2007) 3,779 -3,473 R&D Expenditures (2007) 5,755 1,847 FINANCIAL STATISTICS VS. THE INDUSTRY Ratios (5-Year Avg) 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Return on Assets Return on Investment Return on Equity Intel Industry Source: Reuters PRICE PERFORMANCE BUSINESS SUMMARY Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory, wired and wireless connectivity products among other software packages. Intel’s primary business segments include the Digital Enterprise Group (DEG) and Mobility Group (MG). DEG focuses on desktop computers, workstations and other products to support the infrastructure of the Internet. The Mobility Group focuses on microprocessors and chipsets for the notebook market segment including wireless connectivity. Intel’s business model is built upon product technologies, architecture & silicon, manufacturing, research and standards. The core business model seeks to integrate technology into people’s everyday lives in a more efficient and available manner.

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Page 1: INTC - washburn.edu · Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory,

                  

Student Investment Fund Stock Report Analysts: Kevin Reinecke & J.D. Kaad  

 

 

          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Intel NASDAQ: INTC

Recommendation: Buy Market Cap: $74.09 Billion

Recent Price: $13.80 (12/01/08) Target Price: $23.35 

Sector: Technology Sub-Sector: Semiconductors/Microprocessors

HIGHLIGHTS • Largest semiconductor chip maker in

the world. • Large Cap Growth Stock with Market

Cap of $74.09 Billion. • Dividend Yield: 4.1% • Intel maintains 90% revenue market

share in notebook computers and 82% in desktops in the microprocessor market.

• Five consecutive quarters of positive earnings surprises.

• Higher percentage margins and returns than the industry and AMD over the last five years.

• 66% of shares held by mutual funds. • Expanding focus on technology to

support the need for enhanced mobility.

KEY STATISTICS Intel AMD

ROIC (5-yr avg) 27.10% -51.50%WACC 10.49% 10.50%Dividend Yield 4.10% 0.00%P/E Ratio 11.00 N/APrice/Sales 1.94 0.20EPS 1.25 -5.74EVA (2007) 3,779 -3,473R&D Expenditures (2007) 5,755 1,847

FINANCIAL STATISTICS VS. THE INDUSTRY

Ratios (5-Year Avg)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

GrossMargin

OperatingMargin

Net Margin Return onAssets

Return onInvestment

Return onEquity

IntelIndustry

So urce: Reuters

PRICE PERFORMANCE

BUSINESS SUMMARY Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory, wired and wireless connectivity products among other software packages. Intel’s primary business segments include the Digital Enterprise Group (DEG) and Mobility Group (MG). DEG focuses on desktop computers, workstations and other products to support the infrastructure of the Internet. The Mobility Group focuses on microprocessors and chipsets for the notebook market segment including wireless connectivity. Intel’s business model is built upon product technologies, architecture & silicon, manufacturing, research and standards. The core business model seeks to integrate technology into people’s everyday lives in a more efficient and available manner.

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ANALYSTS: KEVIN J. REINECKE J.D. KAAD

MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Market Size

Forecasts indicate that in the year ended December 31, 2008 the U.S. Semiconductor & Related Device Manufacturing industry will:

1) Generate revenue of $68.6 billion, up 2.2% in real terms on estimated revenue in 2007. 2) Contribute approximately $52.8 billion to the US economy, accounting for a forecast 0.4% of US GDP. 3) Export products valued at $52.3 billion, up 3% in real terms on the value of exports in 2007. 4) Compete globally with imports valued at $27.1 billion, down 1.5% in real terms on the value of imports in 2007.

The graph shown below illustrates the different market segments, including market share. 

NASDAQ: INTC PAGE 2

Semiconductor Industry The major determinants of demand that affect the landscape of the semiconductor industry include:

1) Price & Performance: Price & performance are key to maintaining competitive advantages. 2) Technological Changes: More than most industries, future innovation and change drive success. 3) Lifespan: The lifespan for semiconductors is generally between three and five years. 4) Research & Development: R&D is the lifeblood of the semiconductor industry. 5) Product Innovation: Creating new technologies continue to be a key element to success. 6) Domestic and International Policies: Increased exposure overseas makes International policy crucial.

Market S egments

20%

40%

20%

20%

Computer andcomputer peripheralequipment indus tryCons umer goodsindus tries

Indus trial equipment

Communicationequipment indus try

BUSINESS SEGMENTS Intel is comprised of seven different business segments, including: Digital Enterprise Group (DEG), Mobility, NAND Products, Flash Memory, Digital Home, Digital Health and Software & Solutions. DEG and Mobility represent a majority of the sales. DEG is responsible for manufacturing computing and communications products for businesses, service providers and consumers. The largest segment of DEG is in the desktop and enterprise commuting segment. Mobility offers notebook PC products designed to improve performance, battery life and connectivity to mobile users.

Intel’s largest revenue generator is the Digital Enterprise Group which earned over $20 Billion, but due to high operating costs this division only retained a little over $5 Billion in operating income. Intel’s Mobility Group generated just over $14.5 Billion and actually exceeded the DEG in operating Income at $5.6 Billion. All others, which are comprised of Intel’s NAND Products Group, Flash Memory Group, Digital Home Group, Digital Health Group and the Software and Solutions Group generated just over $3 Billion in revenue, but suffered over $5 Billion in costs and expenses resulting in an income loss of $2.5 Billion.

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2007 Revenue

51%

20%

19%

10%

Asia-PacificAmericasEuropeJapan

ANALYSTS: KEVIN J. REINECKE J.D. KAAD

GLOBAL PRESENCE Intel’s global presence equates to substantial net revenues across the world. Its diversity across the world has proven beneficial in the past and leads to additional opportunities in the future. The Asia-Pacific segment represents $19.4 billion in sales. Expanding global markets and strong market performance have led to an 11.2% sales increase year over year. Sales resulting from American operations have grown minimally to $7.5 billion while European sales have realized double digit increases at 10.2%. Japanese revenue, which continues to be the smallest percent of Intel’s sales, represents $3.9 billion of the $38.3 billion in revenue.

Nearly 80% of revenue is generated outside the Americas. Chairman of the Board, Craig Barrett, says Intel’s business model is increasingly focused on international business profiles. Evidence of this strategy and the importance of global economies are apparent in the Q3 earnings release. Intel announced record Q3 revenues of $10.2 billion resulting in net income of $2.0 billion. Record sales were driven by growths of 3.5% in Asia-Pacific, 3.2% in Europe and 6.4% in Japan. American revenues declined by 8.7%. The Intel World Ahead Program is one way Intel uses its efforts to provide technology and economic development to emerging markets to further its international presence and build on its existing strategy. Although a majority of sales take place outside the United States, most of Intel’s Facilities are U.S. based. Executive offices and a majority of R&D facilities are located in the United States. R&D exposure in other countries occurs in facilities located in Ireland, Israel and China. Assembly and test facilities are primarily located in Malaysia, China, the Philippines and Costa Rica. Facilities are built in locations that can serve the greatest economies of scale while being placed near large concentrations of users which reduces transportation costs and increases speed to market.

INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY Intel relies heavily on R&D to continue growth in the ever-changing world of technology. Two of the most prominent new products driving Intel’s growth are outlined below:

Intel Core i7 920 Processor BX80601920 The Intel Core i7 represents the most significant architectural change in x86 architecture in 13 years. Intel has completely reinvented its CPU design, removing the antiquated Front Side Bus and replacing it with the new Intel QuickPath Interconnect, delivering up to 6.4 GT/s. Also new to the Core i7 line is the integrated memory controller, supporting Triple Channel DDR3 Memory allowing for more maximum memory, up to 24GB on some boards, and faster access times. Located directly on the CPU die is 256KB per core of L2 cache and 8MB L3 cache shared across all four cores means the CPU can do more without having to access the main memory, further increasing performance. WiMax WiMax is the next generation of wireless technology designed to provide high speed Internet mobility to a variety of mobile devices including notebook PCs, handsets, smartphones and consumer electronic devices. WiMax allows users to obtain products at a low cost while increasing the speed and security of the connection. It is the first all IP Internet solution allowing efficient and scalable networks for data, voice and video. It is the future of high-speed Internet mobility.

Revenue

Location 2007 2006%

IncreaseAsia-Pacific 19,432 17,477 11.2%Americas 7715 7512 2.7%Europe 7262 6587 10.2%Japan 3925 3806 3.1%Total 38,334 35,382 8.3%

NASDAQ: INTC PAGE 3

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FORECASTED RESULTS The following results are based on the valuation model. Complete results are included in the appendix, including graphical representation. Margins

Forecasted Gross Margin, Operating Margin and Net Margin all remained consistent with historic returns. Intel margins continue to outpace industry averages as depicted on page 1 of the report.

Returns To maintain a conservative valuation, forecasted ROA, ROE and ROIC were held at historic values or lower. Intel returns have outpaced industry returns historically and the firm is expected to maintain its returns throughout the forecast.

P/E Ratio Historically, the P/E ratio for Intel has balanced between 20x and 24x with a couple of exceptions. Intel is currently trading at a P/E of 11.0. Current market conditions have diminished a majority of the market’s P/E averages. In the forecast, the P/E is expected to increase to between 16x and 18x, which remains conservative compared to historic averages.

Dividend Yield Intel’s current dividend is $0.56 per share. This equates to a 4.1% dividend yield based on a current per share price of $13.80. Dividends are expected to continue to grow throughout the forecast.

Summary As Intel continues to post strong performance and gain market share through innovative technology and increased efficiencies in accordance with the turn of the stock market, the per share intrinsic value of the stock will rise. While the model demonstrates a linear appreciation of the stock price, it is important to note that the performance of the stock price is based on conservative assumptions in sales growth, margins and returns, leaving additional opportunity if Intel continues to post record sales as it did in Q3, 2008. 

ANALYSTS: KEVIN J. REINECKE J.D. KAAD

VALUATION Intel is currently trading at $13.80. Based on the following model assumptions and forecasted values, Intel’s intrinsic value should be approximately $23.35. The chart attached provides insight into a few key drivers of the forecast. Unless noted, forecasts were based on 5-year historic values.

Key Model Drivers

Metric 2007Forecast

2008-2017 5-Yr AvgSales Growth1 8.3% 6.6% 6.2%COGS % of Sales 48.1% 44.6% 44.6%Dividend Growth 12.8% 14.0% 49.5%Share Growth 0.3% 0.0% -2.8%Cash % of Sales 19.1% 21.0% 21.5%Long Term Debt % of Sales 5.2% 4.0% 4.2%

1Sales growth is 2% for 2008, based on year-to-date financials. 2009 sales growth is forecasted at 8%, tapering each year to 6% in year 10 of the forecast.

Sales Sales growth is the primary driver of the model. Based on Yahoo Finance and MSN money, sales growth is expected to be in the 12%-13% range. To remain conservative in a tough economic environment, growth has been forecasted to grow approximately 7% over the next 5 years.

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) Expenditures spent on building efficiency are expected to improve margins. Intel management notes that efficiency efforts have led to faster factory throughput, higher yields and improved equipment utilization. Through Q3, 2008, Intel sales have increased 6.3%, COGS have fallen 7.6% resulting in a 20.4% increase in gross margin dollars. As a result, COGS is set to 44.6% of sales in the forecast.

Dividend & Share Growth Dividends have grown substantially each year since 2003. During this same time, share growth has been relatively flat. Based on Intel’s ability to generate free cash flow, dividend growth has been set to 14.0% in the forecast to reduce cash on the balance sheet. With additional cash on the balance sheet and strong fundamentals, Intel is well positioned to use the cash instead to make acquisitions.

Cash & Debt Position As a result of a strong cash position, the firm needs little debt to finance operations. Considerable free cash flow is generated annually which supports R&D and long-term growth possibilities. Debt remains a small component in Intel’s long-range forecast.

PAGE 4 NASDAQ: INTC

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ABOUT INTEL Strategy

“Our goal is to be the preeminent provider of semiconductor chips and platforms for the worldwide digital economy. As part of our overall strategy to compete in each relevant market segment, we use our core competencies in the design and manufacture of integrated circuits, as well as our financial resources, global presence, and brand recognition. We believe that we have the scale, capacity, and global reach to establish new technologies and respond to customers’ needs quickly.”

Mission “Delight our customers, employees and shareholders by relentlessly delivering the platform and technology advancements that become essential to the way we work and live.”

Number of Employees 86,300

Management Intel has assembled a management team with considerable market knowledge. Board Members and Chief Officers have served many different roles leading to their respective position leading Intel. In 2006, a year with negative sales growth, Intel performed a restructuring of senior management. Two individuals retired opening up an opportunity for Sean Maloney as Chief Sales & Marketing Officer.

Chairman of the Board, Craig Barrett provides a high level of leadership. While serving as Chairman for Intel, Barrett also serves on the Board of Directors for the U.S. Semiconductor Industry and is Chairman of the United Nations Global Alliance for Information and Communication Technologies and Development. President and CEO, Paul Otellini, is experienced in driving growth and delivering innovative products. His focus as CEO is to usher in a new era of portable wireless products that are available anytime, anywhere. Under his leadership, Intel seeks to bring the next billion people online worldwide with affordable computers.

Summary of OfficersName Position Age Since HistoryCraig R. Barrett Chairman of the

Board68 2005 Barrett joined Intel in 1974. He has been a

member of the board since 1992 and was CEO from 1998 - 2005.

Paul S. Otellini President, Chief Executive Officer

57 2005 Otellini joined Intel in 1974. He has been a member of the Board since 2002. He became President and COO in 2002 before becoming CEO.

Andy D. Bryant Chief Administrative Officer

57 2007 Bryant joined Intel in 1981. He became Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer in 2001 before becoming Chief Administrative Officer in 2007.

Stacy J. Smith Chief Financial Officer

45 2007 Smith joined Intel in 1988 and held various VP positions before becoming CFO in 2007.

Sean M. Maloney Chief Sales & Marketing Officer

51 2006 Maloney joined Intel in 1980. He was an Executive VP from 2001 - 2006 before he became Chief Sales & Marketing Officer.

Insider Transactions Insider transactions have trended downward through the middle of 2006. Since then, net purchases have outpaced sales. A series of sales took place in October, 2007 before the decline of the stock market took place. Small purchases have been recorded in October and November, 2008. It is important to note that the linear behavior of cumulative purchases and sales correlate with the returns generated in the overall stock market.

Short Interest The trend in short interest reflects the overall direction of the market. While the market has slumped an increased number of investors are selling short. It appears that this is an economy issue rather than an Intel issue specifically.

PAGE 5 NASDAQ: INTC

ANALYSTS: KEVIN J. REINECKE J.D. KAAD

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VALUATION SCORECARDS Piotroski’s Financial Fitness Evaluator

Intel scored 10/11 on the Piotroski Financial Fitness Evaluator test. A detailed breakout is included in the appendix. Graham & Dodd The Graham and Dodd value a firm as a non-growing perpetuity and then rank it against the S&P 500 in terms of deciles. Intel is in the seventh decile, indicating it is more undervalued than 70% of the S&P 500. A graph is included in the appendix for illustration. Analyst Recommendation

Reinecke – Kaad: Buy Schwab: Buy Standard & Poors: Buy Reuters: Buy

ANALYSTS: KEVIN J. REINECKE J.D. KAAD

RISK FACTORS Fluctuations in Demand

The economic stability of the world may have an impact on total sales. Intel is diversified in many countries which helps mitigate this risk.

New Technology Many of the costs associated with Intel are fixed. Transformational technology shifts may have an adverse effect on the cost structure of the organization.

Competitors The technology market is extremely competitive. Advancements in technology can change market share quickly. Intel has gained market share against its key competitor, AMD, and currently outspends AMD 3:1 in research and development.

Litigation Intel is currently involved in litigation regarding infringement of intellectual property rights. Intel has not released any specific details.

RECOMMENDATION BUY

Strong financial health, increasing market share, innovative technology, a significant dividend yield and an increased focus on efficiency earn Intel a BUY recommendation. The firm continues to generate considerable free cash flow enabling operations to be supported internally without having to generate considerable debt. In addition, margin and return ratios continue to outpace the industry as well as key competitor, AMD. Intel’s strong performance in 2007 and 2008 to date has given investors insight into its refocused business model. A strong International presence has helped mitigate the economic risks Intel faces, yet the stock price has suffered. Chairman of the Board, Craig Barrett, emphasizes that the downtrend in the market is sure to adversely affect most companies, but Intel is uniquely positioned with more than 70% of revenue coming from outside the United States. As a result, we believe the stock is undervalued and provides a great opportunity for potential investors.

PAGE 6 NASDAQ: INTC

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INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 1 of 9

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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N

Enter Firm Ticker INTC

Enter first financial statement year in cell B6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Average ManualTotal Revenue 30,141 34,209 38,826 35,382 38,334 Revenue Growth 13.5% 13.5% -8.9% 8.3% 6.2% Cost of Goods Sold 13,047 14,463 15,777 17,164 18,430 COGS % of Sales 43.3% 42.3% 40.6% 48.5% 48.1% 44.6%Gross Profit 17,094 19,746 23,049 18,218 19,904 SG&A Expense 4,278 4,659 5,688 6,096 5,401 SG&A % of Sales 14.2% 13.6% 14.6% 17.2% 14.1% 14.8% Research & Development 4,360 4,778 5,145 5,873 5,755 R&D % of Sales 14.5% 14.0% 13.3% 16.6% 15.0% 14.7% Depreciation/Amortization 301 179 126 42 16 D&A % of Sales 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Interest Expense (Income), Operating 0 0 0 0 0 Inc. Exp. Oper. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Non-recurring Expenses 622 0 208 634 636 Exp. Non-rec. 2.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.2% Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 Other Exp. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Operating Income 7,533 10,130 11,882 5,573 8,096 Interest Income (Expense), Non-operating (91) 287 728 1,495 1,070 Int. inc. non-oper. -0.3% 0.8% 1.9% 4.2% 2.8% 1.9% Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets 0 0 0 0 0 Gain (loss) asset sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Income, Net 0 0 0 0 0 Other income, net 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Income Before Tax 7,442 10,417 12,610 7,068 9,166 Income Tax 1,801 2,901 3,946 2,024 2,190 Tax Rate 24.2% 27.8% 31.3% 28.6% 23.9% 27.2%Income After Tax 5,641 7,516 8,664 5,044 6,976 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 Minority Interest 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Equity in Affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 Equity in Affiliates 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% U.S. GAAP Adjustment 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. GAAP adjust. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Net Income Before Extraordinary Items 5,641 7,516 8,664 5,044 6,976 Extraordinary Items, Total 0 0 0 0 0 Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Income 5,641 7,516 8,664 5,044 6,976Total Adjustment to Net Income 0 0 0 0 0 Adjustments to NI 0 0 0 0 0 0Basic Weighted Average Shares 6527 6400 6106 5797 5816 Share Growth -1.9% -4.6% -5.1% 0.3% -2.8% 0.0%Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 0.86 1.17 1.42 0.87 1.20Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items 0.86 1.17 1.42 0.87 1.20Diluted Weighted Average Shares 6621 6494 6178 5880 5936 Diluted Share Growth -1.9% -4.9% -4.8% 1.0% -2.7%Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 0.85 1.16 1.40 0.86 1.18Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items 0.85 1.16 1.40 0.86 1.18Dividends per Share - Common Stock 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.40 0.45Gross Dividends - Common Stock 524 1022 1958 2320 2618 Dividend Growth 95.0% 91.6% 18.5% 12.8% 49.5% 14.0%Retained Earnings 5,117 6,494 6,706 2,724 4,358

Data Source: Thomson/Reuters

values in millionsForecasting PercentagesHistorical Income Statements

Forecasted income statement items are based on 5 years of historical average ratios unless a value is entered in the manual cell, in which case the manual entry overrides the historical average. The idea is to consider whether the historical average is truly representative of what the firm can achieve in the future.

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INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 2 of 9

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O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z

Year-by-year revenue growth 2.00% 8.50% 8.00% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 6.00%

year 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017ETotal Revenue 39,101 42,424 45,818 49,484 53,195 56,919 60,903 64,862 68,753 72,878 Cost of Goods Sold 17,422 18,903 20,415 22,049 23,702 25,362 27,137 28,901 30,635 32,473Gross Profit 21,678 23,521 25,403 27,435 29,493 31,557 33,766 35,961 38,118 40,406 SG&A Expense 5,770 6,260 6,761 7,302 7,850 8,399 8,987 9,571 10,145 10,754 Research & Development 5,732 6,219 6,717 7,254 7,798 8,344 8,928 9,508 10,079 10,683 Depreciation/Amortization 157 170 184 199 214 228 244 260 276 293 Interest Expense (Income), Operating 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Non-recurring Expenses 473 513 554 599 644 689 737 785 832 882 Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Operating Income 9,547 10,358 11,187 12,082 12,988 13,897 14,870 15,836 16,787 17,794 Interest Income (Expense), Non-operating (32) (120) (74) (40) (31) (40) (90) (160) (258) (431) Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Income, Net 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Income Before Tax 9,515 10,238 11,112 12,042 12,957 13,857 14,780 15,677 16,528 17,363 Income Tax 2,586 2,782 3,020 3,272 3,521 3,765 4,016 4,260 4,491 4,718Income After Tax 6,929 7,456 8,093 8,770 9,436 10,091 10,764 11,417 12,037 12,645 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Equity in Affiliates 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. GAAP Adjustment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Income Before Extraordinary Items 6,929 7,456 8,093 8,770 9,436 10,091 10,764 11,417 12,037 12,645 Extraordinary Items, Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Income 6,929 7,456 8,093 8,770 9,436 10,091 10,764 11,417 12,037 12,645Total Adjustment to Net Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Basic Weighted Average Shares 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816 5,816Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 1.19 1.28 1.39 1.51 1.62 1.74 1.85 1.96 2.07 2.17Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items 1.19 1.28 1.39 1.51 1.62 1.74 1.85 1.96 2.07 2.17Diluted Weighted Average Shares 5,776 5,621 5,469 5,322 5,179 5,039 4,903 4,771 4,643 4,518Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 1.20 1.33 1.48 1.65 1.82 2.00 2.20 2.39 2.59 2.80Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items 1.20 1.33 1.48 1.65 1.82 2.00 2.20 2.39 2.59 2.80Dividends per Share - Common Stock 0.51 0.58 0.67 0.76 0.87 0.99 1.13 1.28 1.46 1.67Gross Dividends - Common Stock 2,985 3,402 3,879 4,422 5,041 5,746 6,551 7,468 8,514 9,706Retained Earnings 3,945 4,054 4,214 4,348 4,395 4,345 4,213 3,949 3,523 2,939

Forecasted Income Statements -- 10 Years

Revenues grow at the same rate each year unless a growth value is manually entered in the cell above the forecast year, in which case the year-by-year value overrides the historical or manual average. It makes sense to start tapering the growth forecasts 5 or 6 years into the forecast period.

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AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN

Enter Firm Ticker INTC

year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Average ManualAssets

Cash & Equivalents 7,971 8,407 7,324 6,598 7,307 Cash % of Sales 26.4% 24.6% 18.9% 18.6% 19.1% 21.5% 21.0% Short Term Investments 8,193 8,765 5448 3404 8056 ST Invest. % of Sales 27.2% 25.6% 14.0% 9.6% 21.0% 19.5% 20.0% Receivables, Total 2,960 2,999 3,914 2,709 2,576 Receivables % of Sales 9.8% 8.8% 10.1% 7.7% 6.7% 8.6% Inventory, Total 2,519 2,621 3,126 4,314 3,370 Inventory % of Sales 8.4% 7.7% 8.1% 12.2% 8.8% 9.0% Prepaid Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 Pre. Exp. % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Current Assets, Total 1,239 1,266 1,382 1,255 2,576 Other CA % of Sales 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 6.7% 4.3%Total Current Assets 22,882 24,058 21,194 18,280 23,885 Property, Plant and Equipment (Net) 16,661 15,768 17,111 17,602 16,918 Net PPE % of Sales 55.3% 46.1% 44.1% 49.7% 44.1% 47.9% Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 Goodwill % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Intangibles 3,705 3,719 4,527 4,848 4,876 Intangibles % of Sales 12.3% 10.9% 11.7% 13.7% 12.7% 12.2% 13.0% Long Term Investments 2,380 3,219 4,018 4,421 5,385 LT Invest. % of Sales 7.9% 9.4% 10.3% 12.5% 14.0% 10.8% 13.0% Notes Receivable - Long Term 0 0 0 0 0 Notes Rec. % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Long Term Assets, Total 1,515 1,379 1,464 3,217 4,587 Other LT Assets % of Sales 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 9.1% 12.0% 6.8% 9.0% Other Assets, Total 0 0 0 0 0 Other Assets % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Total Assets 47,143 48,143 48,314 48,368 55,651

Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 1,660 1,943 2,249 2,256 2,361 Acc. Payable % of Sales 5.5% 5.7% 5.8% 6.4% 6.2% 5.9% Payable/Accrued 0 0 0 0 0 Pay/accrued % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Accrued Expenses 3,577 4,107 4,080 3,682 5,104 Acc. Exp. % of Sales 11.9% 12.0% 10.5% 10.4% 13.3% 11.6% Notes Payable/Short Term Debt 224 201 313 180 142 Notes Payable % of Sales 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% Current Portion of LT Debt/Capital Leases 0 0 0 0 0 Curr. Debt % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Current Liabilities 1,418 1,755 2,592 2,396 964 Other curr. Liab. % of Sales 4.7% 5.1% 6.7% 6.8% 2.5% 5.2%Total Current Liabilities 6,879 8,006 9,234 8,514 8,571 Long Term Debt, Total 936 703 2,106 1,848 1,980 LT Debt % of Sales 3.1% 2.1% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 4.2% Deferred Income Tax 1,482 855 703 265 411 Def. Inc. tax % of Sales 4.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 1.0% Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 Min. Int. % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Other Liabilities, Total 0 0 89 989 1,927 Other liab. % of Sales 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.8% 5.0% 1.6%Total Liabilities 9,297 9,564 12,132 11,616 12,889 Preferred Stock (Redeemable) 0 0 0 0 0 Preferred Stock (Unredeemable) 0 0 0 0 0 Common Stock 6,754 6,143 6,245 7,825 11,653 Additional Paid in Capital 0 0 0 0 0 Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) 31,016 32,288 29,810 28,984 30,848 A Treasury Stock - Common 0 0 0 0 0 Treasury Stock - Common 0 0 0 0 0 ESOP Debt Guarantee 0 0 0 0 0 ESOP Debt Guarantee 0 0 0 0 0 Other Equity, Total 76 148 127 (57) 261 The model uses the more conservative diluted commonTotal Shareholders' Equity 37,846 38,579 36,182 36,752 42,762 shares number for total shares outstandingTotal Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 47,143 48,143 48,314 48,368 55,651Diluted Weighted Average Shares 6621 6494 6178 5880 5936 Diluted Share Growth -1.9% -4.9% -4.8% 1.0% -2.7% 0.0%Total Preferred Shares Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 Preferred Share Growth 0.0%

Forecasting Percentagesvalues in millions

Historical Balance Sheets

Forecasted balance sheet items are based on 5 years of historical average ratios unless a value is entered in the manual cell, in which case the manual entry overrides the historical average. The idea is to consider whether the historical average is truly representative of what the firm can achieve in the future.

Page 10: INTC - washburn.edu · Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory,

INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 4 of 9

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AO AP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ

year 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017EAssets

Cash & Equivalents 8,211 10,000 10,300 10,600 11,200 11,953 12,790 13,621 14,438 15,304 Short Term Investments 7,820 8,485 9,164 9,897 10,639 11,384 12,181 12,972 13,751 14,576 Receivables, Total 3,366 3,652 3,944 4,260 4,579 4,900 5,243 5,584 5,919 6,274 Inventory, Total 3,523 3,823 4,129 4,459 4,793 5,129 5,488 5,845 6,195 6,567 Prepaid Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Assets, Total 1,692 1,836 1,983 2,141 2,302 2,463 2,636 2,807 2,975 3,154Total Current Assets 24,613 27,796 29,519 31,357 33,514 35,829 38,337 40,829 43,278 45,875 Property, Plant and Equipment (Net) 18,715 20,306 21,931 23,685 25,461 27,244 29,151 31,046 32,908 34,883 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Intangibles 5,083 5,515 5,956 6,433 6,915 7,399 7,917 8,432 8,938 9,474 Long Term Investments 5,083 5,515 5,956 6,433 6,915 7,399 7,917 8,432 8,938 9,474 Notes Receivable - Long Term 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Long Term Assets, Total 3,519 3,818 4,124 4,454 4,788 5,123 5,481 5,838 6,188 6,559 Other Assets, Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Assets 57,013 62,950 67,486 72,361 77,594 82,994 88,804 94,576 100,250 106,265

Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable 2,308 2,504 2,705 2,921 3,140 3,360 3,595 3,829 4,058 4,302 Payable/Accrued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accrued Expenses 4,544 4,930 5,324 5,750 6,182 6,614 7,077 7,537 7,989 8,469 Notes Payable/Short Term Debt 236 256 276 298 321 343 367 391 415 440 Current Portion of LT Debt/Capital Leases 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 2,017 2,189 2,364 2,553 2,745 2,937 3,142 3,347 3,547 3,760Total Current Liabilities 9,105 9,879 10,669 11,523 12,387 13,254 14,182 15,104 16,010 16,971 Long Term Debt, Total 181 1,204 647 225 101 192 757 1,556 2,699 4,707 Deferred Income Tax 391 424 458 495 532 569 609 649 688 729 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Liabilities, Total 630 683 738 797 857 917 981 1,044 1,107 1,174Total Liabilities 10,307 12,190 12,512 13,039 13,876 14,932 16,529 18,352 20,504 23,580 Preferred Stock (Redeemable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Preferred Stock (Unredeemable) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Common Stock 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 11,653 Additional Paid in Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) 34,793 38,846 43,060 47,408 51,803 56,148 60,361 64,309 67,833 70,772 Treasury Stock - Common 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ESOP Debt Guarantee 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Equity, Total 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261Total Shareholders' Equity 46,707 50,760 54,974 59,322 63,717 68,062 72,275 76,223 79,747 82,686Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 57,013 62,950 67,486 72,361 77,594 82,994 88,804 94,576 100,250 106,265Total common shares (diluted) 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936 5,936Total preferred shares (outstanding) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0AFN (Interactive with 3 Items Below) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Adjustment to L-T Debt (iterate or use solver) 181 1,023 (557) (422) (124) 91 565 798 1,144 2,008Issue Common Stock to Fund AFNSet Balance Sheet Cash Lower to Fund AFN 10,000 10,300 10,600 11,200

Forecasted Balance Sheets -- 10 Years

Model maintains a fixed ratio of ST debt/sales. LT debt is adjusted for shortfalls/surpluses of AFN. Every time something changes that affects the forecasts, set row 49 entries to zero and use Goal Seek to set row 48 AFN to zero by adjusting row 49 .(write a macro to b alance all 10 years at once). If you want to issue common stock in any forecast year, enter that amount first (row 50) and remember to adjust # of shares. Comment in OA8 describes funding AFN with cash.

Page 11: INTC - washburn.edu · Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory,

INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 5 of 9

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BA BB BC BD BE BF BG BH BI BJ BK BL BM BN BO BPEnter Firm Ticker INTC

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017ELiquidity

Current 3.33 3.00 2.30 2.15 2.79 2.70 2.81 2.77 2.72 2.71 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70Quick 2.96 2.68 1.96 1.64 2.39 2.32 2.43 2.38 2.33 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32Net Working Capital to Total Assets 0.34 0.33 0.25 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27

Asset ManagementDays Sales Outstanding 35.84 32.00 36.80 27.95 24.53 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42Inventory Turnover 11.97 13.05 12.42 8.20 11.38 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10 11.10Fixed Assets Turnover 1.81 2.17 2.27 2.01 2.27 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09Total Assets Turnover 0.64 0.71 0.80 0.73 0.69 0.69 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69

Debt ManagementLong-Term Debt to Equity 2.5% 1.8% 5.8% 5.0% 4.6% 0.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 2.0% 3.4% 5.7%Total Debt to Total Assets 2.5% 1.9% 5.0% 4.2% 3.8% 0.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1% 3.1% 4.8%Times Interest Earned 82.78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 299.30 86.14 150.49 302.03 418.82 344.45 165.09 99.22 64.95 41.30

ProfitabilityGross Profit Margin 56.7% 57.7% 59.4% 51.5% 51.9% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4% 55.4%Operating Profit Margin 25.0% 29.6% 30.6% 15.8% 21.1% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4% 24.4%Net After-Tax Profit Margin 18.7% 22.0% 22.3% 14.3% 18.2% 17.7% 17.6% 17.7% 17.7% 17.7% 17.7% 17.7% 17.6% 17.5% 17.4%Total Assets Turnover 0.64 0.71 0.80 0.73 0.69 0.69 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69Return on Assets 12.0% 15.6% 17.9% 10.4% 12.5% 12.2% 11.8% 12.0% 12.1% 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1% 12.0% 11.9%Equity Multiplier 1.25 1.25 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.29Return on Equity 14.9% 19.5% 23.9% 13.7% 16.3% 14.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.1% 15.3%

EPS (using diluted shares, excluding extraordinary item 0.85 1.16 1.40 0.86 1.18 1.20 1.33 1.48 1.65 1.82 2.00 2.20 2.39 2.59 2.80DPS (dividends per share) 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.40 0.45 0.51 0.58 0.67 0.76 0.87 0.99 1.13 1.28 1.46 1.67

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) 5,710 7,309 8,164 3,977 6,162 6,952 7,543 8,147 8,799 9,459 10,121 10,829 11,533 12,225 12,958ROIC (return on invested capital) 23.0% 30.8% 32.5% 15.7% 27.1% 25.8% 24.9% 25.2% 25.6% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8% 25.8%EVA (economic value added) 3,100 4,818 5,526 1,324 3,779 4,124 4,360 4,761 5,197 5,607 6,003 6,423 6,840 7,251 7,686FCF (free cash flow) N/A 8,438 6,763 3,838 8,741 2,694 4,161 6,219 6,741 7,079 7,582 8,081 8,803 9,541 10,114Weighted Average Cost of Capital 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%Net Operating Working Capital (NOWC) 8,213 7,977 8,035 7,683 5,788 8,249 10,041 10,344 10,648 11,251 12,008 12,848 13,683 14,504 15,375Operating Long Term Assets 16,661 15,768 17,111 17,602 16,918 18,715 20,306 21,931 23,685 25,461 27,244 29,151 31,046 32,908 34,883Total Operating Capital 24,874 23,745 25,146 25,285 22,706 26,964 30,347 32,275 34,333 36,713 39,251 41,999 44,729 47,413 50,257

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Long-term Horizon Value Growth Rate (user-supplied) 5.0%PV of Forecasted FCF, discounted at 10.49% $110,353 $119,236 $127,585 $134,751 $142,147 $149,982 $158,135 $166,644 $175,324 $184,176 $202,539Value of Non-Operating Assets 15,363 16,031 18,485 19,464 20,497 21,839 23,337 24,970 26,593 28,189 29,880Total Intrinsic Value of the Firm 125,716 135,267 146,069 154,214 162,644 171,821 181,471 191,614 201,917 212,365 232,419Intrinsic Market Value of the Equity 123,594 134,850 144,610 153,291 162,121 171,399 180,936 190,489 199,970 209,251 227,273Per Share Intrinsic Value of the Firm 20.82 23.35 25.73 28.03 30.46 33.10 35.91 38.85 41.91 45.07 50.31MVA (market value added) 80,832 88,143 93,849 98,317 102,799 107,682 112,874 118,215 123,747 129,505 144,587

Item Value Percent Cost Weighted Cost Risk Free Rate 4.0%ST Debt (from most recent balance sheet) 142 0.16% 7.00% 0.01% Beta 1.10LT Debt (from most recent balance sheet) 1,980 2.26% 8.50% 0.14% Market Risk Prem. 6.0%MV Equity (look up stock's mkt. cap and enter in cell BB53 85,400 97.58% 10.60% 10.34% Cost of Equity 10.60%Weighted Average Cost of Capital 10.49%

Capital Asset Pricing Model

Forecasted Ratios and Valuation Model -- 10 Years

Valuation Metrics Trend Analysis (NOPAT, EVA, MVA, FCF and Capital in millions) Forecasted Valuation Metrics -- 10 Years

Valuation (in millions) -- through year 2017

Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculations

values in millionsHistorical Ratios and Valuation Model

Page 12: INTC - washburn.edu · Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory,

INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 6 of 9

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BQ BR BS BT BU BV BW BX BY BZ CA CB CC CD CE CF CG CH

Inputs 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017EPer share value (hist. & DCF est.) $26.57 $27.20 $25.12 $19.84 $24.01 $23.35 $25.73 $28.03 $30.46 $33.10 $35.91 $38.85 $41.91 $45.07 $50.31Market capitalization $173,422 $174,080 $153,383 $115,012 $139,642 $135,781 $149,638 $163,012 $177,173 $192,498 $208,834 $225,945 $243,756 $262,129 $292,585EBITDA $8,456 $10,309 $12,216 $6,249 $8,748 $10,177 $11,042 $11,925 $12,879 $13,845 $14,814 $15,851 $16,882 $17,894 $18,968Enterprise Value $166,611 $166,577 $148,478 $110,442 $134,457 $127,987 $141,098 $153,635 $167,097 $181,720 $197,416 $214,280 $232,082 $250,805 $282,427

MultiplesPrice/Sales 5.75 5.09 3.95 3.25 3.64 3.47 3.53 3.56 3.58 3.62 3.67 3.71 3.76 3.81 4.01Price/EBITDA 20.51 16.89 12.56 18.40 15.96 13.34 13.55 13.67 13.76 13.90 14.10 14.25 14.44 14.65 15.43Price/Free Cash Flow N/A 21.04 23.77 31.56 15.92 50.39 35.97 26.21 26.28 27.19 27.54 27.96 27.69 27.47 28.93Enterprise Value/EBITDA 19.70 16.16 12.15 17.67 15.37 12.58 12.78 12.88 12.97 13.13 13.33 13.52 13.75 14.02 14.89Price/Earnings 31.19 23.50 17.91 23.13 20.43 19.46 19.40 18.94 18.49 18.16 17.93 17.70 17.52 17.38 17.97Dividend Yield 0.30% 0.59% 1.28% 2.02% 1.87% 2.20% 2.27% 2.38% 2.50% 2.62% 2.75% 2.90% 3.06% 3.25% 3.32%

Historical OverrideValuation Estimates Based On: Average w/Manual 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Price/Sales 4.34 $29.36 $32.74 $36.34 $40.33 $44.55 $48.99 $53.87 $58.96 $64.23 $69.97Price/EBITDA 16.86 $29.51 $32.02 $34.58 $37.34 $40.14 $42.95 $45.96 $48.95 $51.89 $55.00Price/Free Cash Flow 23.07 $10.69 $16.51 $24.67 $26.74 $28.08 $30.08 $32.06 $34.93 $37.85 $40.13Enterprise Value/EBITDA 16.21 $28.37 $30.78 $33.24 $35.90 $38.59 $41.29 $44.18 $47.06 $49.88 $52.87Price/Earnings 23.23 21.00 $25.02 $26.92 $29.22 $31.66 $34.07 $36.44 $38.86 $41.22 $43.46 $45.66

Low Price $10.69 $16.51 $24.67 $26.74 $28.08 $30.08 $32.06 $34.93 $37.85 $40.13High Price $29.51 $32.74 $36.34 $40.33 $44.55 $48.99 $53.87 $58.96 $64.23 $69.97DCF Price $23.35 $25.73 $28.03 $30.46 $33.10 $35.91 $38.85 $41.91 $45.07 $50.31

Forecasted Stock Prices Based on Historical Multiples -- 10 Years

Historical Ratios and Valuation Forecasted Ratios and Valuation

In this section we are going to examine historical and forecasted ratios (or "multiples") typically used to value stocks ‐‐ P/CF, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, etc. We first want to compare the historical trends in these ratios to the trends in their forecasted values. If our forecasted multiples are systematically increasing or decreasing our forecasts may be too optimistic or pessimistic, and our forecast assumptions may have to be adjusted. Second, we want to compare our discounted cash flow valuation estimates with those derived from the various multiples. Once again, if there is a large discrepancy between our DCF valuation estimate of the company's stock and the range of values obtained from the various multiples, we may want to adjust our forecast assumptions. 1. You will need to look up the company's year‐end stock prices and enter them in the first 5 (historical) years of the "per share value" category.2. Use the estimated DCF price per share in the forecasted period (link to your forecasted prices in cells BG47‐BP47.3. Market capitalization will be calculated as basic weighted shares x historical year‐end prices and then forecasted basic weighted shares x DCF forecasted prices.4. As with previous calculations, historical multiples use actual historical values and forecasted multiples use forecasted values. 

$5 

$15 $25 

$35 

$45 $55 

$65 $75 

$85 

Forecasted

 Value

 Per Sha

re

Forecasted Per Share Stock Values

Low Price DCF Price High Price

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$55

0

5

10

15

20

25

DCF

 Price

P/S an

d En

t. Value

/EBITD

A

Price/Sales and Enterprise Value/EBITDA  vs. Price

Price/Sales Enterprise Value/EBITDA DCF Price

Page 13: INTC - washburn.edu · Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory,

INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 7 of 9

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CI CJ CK CL CM CN CO CP CQ CR CS CT CU CV CW CX CY CZ DA DB

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

Dividen

d Yield

Price/Earnings Ratio

Price/Earnings Ratio and Dividend Yield

Price/Earnings Ratio Dividend Yield

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ope

r. an

d Net Profit M

argin

Gross M

argin

Gross, Operating and Net Profit Margins

Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

ROA, R

OE an

d RO

IC

Return on Assets, Equity and Invested Capital

Return on Assets Return on Equity Return on Invested Capital

$0 

$2,000 

$4,000 

$6,000 

$8,000 

$10,000 

$12,000 

$14,000 

NOPAT an

d Free

 Cash Flow

NOPAT and Free Cash Flow (millions)

NOPAT Free Cash Flow

$40,000 

$60,000 

$80,000 

$100,000 

$120,000 

$140,000 

$160,000 

$3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 

Market V

alue

 Add

ed

Econ

omic Value

 Add

ed

Economic Value Added & Market Value Added (millions)

Economic Value Added Market Value Added

$0.00 

$0.50 

$1.00 

$1.50 

$2.00 

$2.50 

$3.00 

EPS an

d DPS

Earnings and Dividends Per Share

Earnings Per Share Dividends Per Share

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INTC.xls Valuation and Analysis Model, Page 8 of 9

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DC DD DE DF DG DH DI DJ DK DL DM DN DO DP DQ DR DS DT DU DV

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

Days to Cov

er Ratio

Days to Cover Ratio (Short Interest ÷ Volume)

Days to Cover

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Short Interst (tho

usan

ds)

Short Interest (thousands of shares)

Short Interest (thousands of shares)

2,000

22,000

42,000

62,000

82,000

102,000

122,000

142,000

Avg. Daily Volum

Average Daily Trading Volume (thousands)

Average Daily Volume (thousands of shares)

($20,000)($18,000)($16,000)($14,000)($12,000)($10,000)($8,000)($6,000)($4,000)($2,000)

$0 $2,000 

Net Inside

r Transaction

Net Insider Purchases (Sales) , $, in thousands

Net Insider Transactions, $, in thousands

Page 15: INTC - washburn.edu · Intel (INTC) is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors. The primary products include microprocessors, chipsets, motherboard products, NAND flash memory,

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Value Score RationaleNet Income 6,976 1 Score 1 point for positive net income.Free Cash Flow 8,741 1 Score 1 point for positive free cash flow.ROA (% change NI ÷ % change TA) 2.54 1 Score 1 point if % increase in NI > % increase in total assets.Earnings Quality (EBIT ÷ NI) 1.16 1 Score 1 point if EBIT > NI.Total Assets to Total Liabilities 1.37 1 Score 1 point if % increase in TA > % increase in TL.Working Capital (Current Ratio) 2.79 1 Award 1 point if Current Ratio at least as large as last year.% Change Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 1.0% 1 Award 1 point if total diluted shares increased by less than 2%.Gross Margin 51.9% 1 Award 1 point if gross margin increased over last year.Asset Turnover (% change sales ÷ % change assets) 0.55 0 Award 1 point if sales increased faster than total assets.Total Liabilities to EBITDA 1.47 1 Award 1 point if ratio less than 5.0.Total Liabilities to Operating Cash Flow (EBIT) 1.59 1 Award 1 point if ratio less than 4.0.

Total Score (11 = maximum) 10

Piotroski's Financial Fitness EvaluatorGraham & Dodd

Valuation Scorecards