INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Macro & Strategybackoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC_-_Eco... · For October 2020, PC India Index was up 2% yoy and 7% mom; key macro

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

Macro & Strategy

Liquidity! Liquidity! – Aiding economy and financial markets

INDIA | MACRO & STRATEGY | Monthly Dashboard

1 December 2020

PC India Index for October’20 hit its historical peak (since April’17) led by the consistent recovery in macro activity, industrial indicators, corporate earnings, and financial markets. More frequently reported data for last week showed slight weakness - we remain watchful. A few channel checks also indicated the same. We retained our FY21 GDP growth at -5%-7%, post Q2GDP. Due to elevated inflation, we expect RBI to stay on hold in the upcoming monetary policy. We will be watching for RBI’s stance on recent inflation trends and economic impact of soft lockdowns in India; they are expected to retain accommodative stance. While we expected Financials (banks+NBFCs), broader market, and Indian equities to outperform, liquidity led equity rally has been ahead of expectation. Nifty is currently trading at 19x FY22 PE – which seems sustainable (led by sector rotations) unless there are earnings downgrade. Nifty 50/200/500 are at their historical highs. Midcap/Smallcap index 6%/44% short of its peak.

For October 2020, PC India Index was up 2% yoy and 7% mom; key macro indicators achieved pre-covid levels. Others are stable/ recovering. Nifty valuations:

Major indices like Nifty 50/100/200/500 are trading at elevated one-year forward valuations at c.21x, up from last month’s c.20x).

NSE Midcap 100 is trading higher at 23x, above its LTA (long-term average) of 14x.

Auto, IT, Pharma, Realty and Services Indexes are trading above +1SD.

Metals, FMCG and Banks are above LTA.

Infra is above -1SD.

Energy, Media and PSU Banks are trading below -1SD. Nifty 50 September performance:

In November, Nifty was up 11% mom supported by financials, contributing 72% to index growth. HDFC Bank, HDFC, ICICI, and Kotak contributed >50% to Nifty growth – All are a part of our portfolio.

This was followed by Discretionary (8%, led by M&M), and Materials (6%, led by Tata Steel).

The laggard was only Energy, contributing -5% to index growth (led by RIL).

Bottom-15 Nifty stocks recovered vs. last month, and are now down -12% CYTD.

Top-15 stocks are 11% above their January levels.

Within Nifty 50, all sectors except Energy, Utilities, Staples, Healthcare and IT are at their FYTD peak levels. Energy is trading at a 50% discount to its FYTD high.

Nifty Index weights

Within NIFTY 50, an upward shift in weights was seen in Banks/NBFC/Metals/ Industrials/Auto by 2.6%/1.2%/0.3%/0.2%/0.1%.

Higher reduction was seen in O&G and IT by -2.1%/-1.4%.

Within Midcap 100, higher increases in weights were seen in NBFC – to 14.9% from 13.4% – and in Oil & Gas to 3.7% from 3.3%.

Weights fell the most for Healthcare (by 1.3%) followed by IT and Discretionary (by -0.4%).

Anjali Verma, Research Analyst ([email protected]) Navaneeth Vijayan, Research Associate ([email protected]) Manoj Rawat, Research Associate ([email protected])

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:%20([email protected]




Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

DASHBOARD MONTHLY UPDATE

Growth trends Indian Q3FY21 GDP expected at -1%: Q2FY21 GDP declined by 7.5%; it is

currently in a recovery phase from a pandemic-induced slowdown. For October 2020, IIP is expected to continue improvement (reflecting upturn in core-sector data like coal, cement & electricity). Composite PMI for October rose further, led by a sharp rise in manufacturing and rebound in services. Gross tax collections registered 17% yoy growth (favourable base) vs. -16% in the previous month.

Global Q4 2020 GDP – rebound except in EU: As per Bloomberg’s consensus estimates, US and Japan GDP signals recovery in Q4; China’s growth should heighten, while EU’s growth rates would worsen.

Business growth indicators: Recovery to growth phase o STRONG: Auto sales picked-up by 11% mom; were higher than pre-covid

levels in August. Rail freight remained strong with 15% yoy growth and electricity/cement production registered 11%/3% yoy growth. Fuel consumption saw a growth of 3% for the first-time since Covid-19.

o RECOVERING: Port volume inched closer to pre-covid levels. o WEAK/STABLE: Steel production remained stable. Air traffic registered 34%

mom growth (remains in deep red). External factors – deficit widens Trade deficit: Deficit widened as exports of petroleum products fall and imports

of gold surge. Exports/imports annual growth rates at -5%/-12% yoy. Forex: Reserves stood at US$ 561bn (up US$ 19bn mom). Currency: Rupee stayed stable mom. Global currencies: YEN and EUR stable while

CNY depreciated. Capital flows: Capital flows are expected to remain strong-decent. Banking indicators – largely stable Commercial paper issuances improved by Rs 178bn and LAF by Rs 779bn mom. Deposit and M3 annual growth declined while bank credit remained stable. For

FYTD21, CIC, M3, and deposit growth fared well compared to last year; weakness continued in credit growth (0% vs. 2% at the same time last year).

Median MCLR fell by 5bps mom at 7.35%, down 148bps from its peak in February 2019.

Spreads – Corporate: Gsec yield gap declined to 72bps vs. 78bps in September. Term premium – 10-year Gsec: 1-year Gsec yield gap widened to 241bps vs.

230bps in September. Inflation and monetary policy – CPI causing concern; brent price fell India: CPI inched up further to 7.6%, core inflation elevated to 5.5%. Global: Inflation eased in US and China while EU and Japan are in the negative

zone. Bond yields: IND 10-year: US 10-year: Difference between India and US

government bond yields declined to 515bps vs. 533bps last month. Commodity prices: London MX index increased by 1% mom, while brent prices

fell by 1% mom. Equity markets – trended higher India: Nifty 50 was up by 11% mom in November. Global: FTSE Emerging Markets Index was up by 9%, FTSE World Index was up by

12% mom. CYTD, among global indices, China/Korea/Japan/US markets have seen a growth of 22%/20%/13%/13%. Singapore/European/Hong Kong markets were down by -11%/-6%/-3%.

One-year forward PE for Nifty in November inched up at 21x vs. 20x in October 2020. FTSE Emerging/World Index PE in November traded at 15.2x/19.3x vs. 14.4x/17.7x in October 2020.



Data for November 2020 – Manufacturing PMI strong; oil prices increase

Forex reserves were up by US$ 15bn mom.

Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.3 vs. 58.9 last month, however growth remains strong.

Composite PMI surged to 58 vs. 54.6 last month, supported by a sharp rise in manufacturing activity and service sector.

Improvement in CP issuances and net liquidity. INR depreciated 1% mom.

Oil and commodity prices increased by 6% mom.

FIIs bought heavily into equities in November with net flows at Rs 653bn vs. Rs. 145bn in October. DIIs were heavy sellers with net flows at Rs -483bn.

PC India Index continued improvement in October 2020, after remaining stable in the previous month. The index was supported by tax collection, auto sales, forex reserves, PMI, IIP, cement production, fuel consumption, port volumes, and equities. The index came under pressure from foreign trade, higher inflation, and air traffic.

PC India Index: Picked up in October 2020

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

Net PC India Index (April 2017 = 100)

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20

Positives' Index (Net) PC India Index Negatives' Index (rhs)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Au

g-1

7

Oct

-17

Dec

-17

Feb

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Au

g-1

8

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Au

g-1

9

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Feb

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jun

-20

Au

g-2

0

Oct

-20



PC India Index: What is it? We have taken into account various important domestic as well as global factors, economic and industry variables, production indices and prices, as well as various asset classes. Weights are assigned to each variable to arrive at Positive Index, Negative Index, and Net Index. The Positive Index is the weighted average of all the factors that are positive for India. The Negative Index is the weighted average of all factors impacting India negatively. “Net PC India Index = Positive Index - Negative Index”.

Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Fiscal Gross tax collection (yoy %) -4.8 -0.7 -2.6 -19.6 7.2 13.2 -14.4 -44.3 -37.3 -22.7 -20.4 2.0 -16.2 16.9

Foreign Trade Export (RsBn) 26.0 26.2 26.0 27.4 26.0 27.7 21.4 10.4 19.1 21.9 23.6 22.7 27.6 24.9 Import (RsBn) 36.9 38.0 38.1 38.6 41.1 37.5 31.2 17.1 22.2 21.1 28.5 29.5 30.3 33.6 Capital flows (USD bn) 10.1 9.8 11.0 5.6 16.2 5.4 -1.6 0.3 1.9 4.9 7.3 26.7 8.3 8.4 Forex Reserves (USD bn) 433.6 442.6 451.1 457.5 471.30 481.54 475.56 479.46 493.48 506.84 534.57 541.43 542.02 560.72

Industry IIP (Index) 122.9 124.0 128.8 134.5 137.4 134.2 117.2 54.0 90.2 107.9 117.6 116.9 123.2 126.3* Composite PMI (Index) 49.8 49.6 52.7 53.7 56.3 57.6 50.6 7.2 14.8 37.8 37.2 46.0 54.6 58.0 Cement Production (Index) 131.3 137.0 142.4 159.2 164.1 160.7 129.8 22.5 117.3 137.8 126.8 109.1 126.7 140.9 Steel Production (Index) 141.2 149.5 154.9 165.2 155.4 152.9 133.2 26.9 96.4 122.3 139.2 147.4 145.1 145.4

Banking M3 (yoy, %) 9.7 10.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 8.8 10.7 11.7 12.3 13.2 12.6 12.2 11.6 Bank Credit (yoy,%) 8.8 8.9 8.0 7.1 8.3 7.5 6.2 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.5 5.1 5.1 Deposits (yoy, %) 9.4 10.3 9.7 10.1 11.2 10.0 7.9 9.8 10.7 11.0 12.0 10.9 10.5 10.1 Median MCLR (%) 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 CP Issuance (Rs Bn) 4597 4623 4584 4149 4220 4002 3445 4172 4258 3915 3748 3726 3623 3801 LAF (Rs Bn, Daily Average) 1152.1 1956.5 2383.4 2564.1 3178.0 2998.2 2966.1 4751.5 5118.4 3770.5 3611.1 3690.6 3322.0 4101.0

Consumer Automobile Sales ('000) 1880.1 2042.3 1674.7 1285.8 1603.7 1546.3 1007.8 0.0 317.6 1126.2 1464.1 1775.6 2121.6 2364.1 Fuel Consumption (yoy %) 0.7 -2.0 8.8 0.3 0.1 4.5 -17.8 -48.7 -19.4 -9.0 -12.1 -16.0 -4.3 2.7 Air Traffic (yoy %) 1.2 4.0 11.2 2.5 2.2 9.0 -33.1 -100.0 -97.7 -83.5 -82.3 -76.0 -65.8 -57.2

Infrastructure Electricity production (YoY %) -2.6 -12.2 -4.9 0.0 3.2 11.5 -8.2 -22.9 -14.8 -10.0 -2.4 -1.8 4.8 10.5 Port volume (YoY,%) -0.3 -5.3 -0.7 6.6 2.5 3.9 -5.0 -21.1 -23.3 -14.7 -13.3 -10.3 -2.1 -1.2 Rail Freight (YoY, %) -6.6 -8.1 0.9 4.3 2.8 6.5 -13.9 -35.3 -21.2 -7.7 -4.6 3.9 15.5 15.4

10 Year G-Sec Yields (Avg) India 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 United States 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 European Union -0.57 -0.45 -0.33 -0.27 -0.27 -0.43 -0.52 -0.43 -0.50 -0.40 -0.46 -0.47 -0.49 -0.57 Japan -0.229 -0.166 -0.096 -0.019 -0.020 -0.062 -0.029 -0.006 -0.010 0.013 0.019 0.030 0.020 0.026 China 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2

GDP (yoy growth rates, %) India 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 -23.9 -23.9 -23.9 -7.5 -7.5 -7.5 -1.0* United States 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.7** European Union 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -13.9 -13.9 -13.9 -4.3 -4.3 -4.3 -7.5** Japan 1.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.8 -3.4** China 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.7**

Inflation (CPI) (yoy growth rates, %) India 4.0 4.6 5.5 7.4 7.6 6.6 5.8 7.2 6.3 6.2 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.6 United States 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 European Union 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Japan 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.4 China 3.0 3.8 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.7 0.5

Unemployment Rate United States 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 14.7 13.3 11.1 10.2 8.4 7.9 6.9 European Union 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6*

Currency (vs. USD) Indian Rupee 71.4 71.1 71.5 71.2 71.3 71.5 74.4 76.2 75.7 75.7 75.0 74.6 73.5 73.5 Euro 1.10 1.11 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.09 1.11 1.09 1.09 1.13 1.15 1.18 1.18 1.18 Yen 107.5 108.2 108.9 109.1 109.3 110.0 107.7 107.8 107.2 107.6 106.7 106.1 105.6 105.2 Yuan Renminbi 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7

Global Commodity Prices London MX Index 2809 2805 2796 2813 2810 2649 2445 2361 2421 2610 2824 2940 2999 3023 Brent ($/bbl) 62.3 59.6 62.7 65.2 63.7 55.5 33.7 26.6 32.4 40.8 43.2 45.0 41.9 41.5

Indices Nifty50 11474 11877 12056 12168 11962 11202 8598 9860 9580 10302 11073 11388 11248 11642 FTSE Emerging Markets Index 502 523 524 559 534 506 422 460 464 496 537 549 537 549 FTSE World Index 344 353 361 373 369 338 292 322 336 346 363 385 372 363

Positives' Index 1192 1254 1264 1244 1265 1193 945 1049 1073 1115 1177 1217 1208 1282 Negatives' Index 211 210 211 213 212 200 183 176 181 194 209 217 220 222 (Net) PC India Index 981 1043 1054 1032 1053 993 762 873 892 920 968 1000 988 1059

Source: RBI, CSO, PPAC, SIAM, Various Ministries, Bloomberg *Our estimate **Bloomberg consensus estimate; Quarterly reported data is assumed stable for three months



FYTD growth trends (until 31st October of respective years, %)

Source: RBI, PhillipCapital India Research

0

5

10

15

20

25

FYTD '16 FYTD '17 FYTD '18 FYTD '19 FYTD '20 FYTD '21

Currency in circulation (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


M3 (%)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


Deposit rate (%)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Credit growth (%)



Nifty 50: Sector-wise return Contribution to Nifty-50 growth (mom)

Financials have been dragging the Nifty since CYTD FYTD, sector-wise high, low, and current value in Nifty

Sectoral indices return Nifty top-15 cos. have outperformed bottom-15 cos.

Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research

13%

2%

-4%

5%

23%

8%

19% 12%

7% 8% 11%

85% 75%

66% 66% 63% 59% 49%

22% 10% 8%

57%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% MoM(%)FYTD(%)

8% 6% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%

-5% -10%

5%

20%

35%

72%

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

01

/Jan

/20

01

/Feb

/20

01

/Mar

/20

01

/Ap

r/2

0

01

/May

/20

01

/Ju

n/2

0

01

/Ju

l/2

0

01

/Au

g/2

0

01

/Sep

/20

01

/Oct

/20

01

/No

v/2

0

Nifty Nifty (ex-fin.)

90

110

130

150

170

190

210High-and-Low Current

High

Low

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NSE

AU

TO In

dex

NSE

MET

Ind

ex

NSE

SMC

P In

dex

NSE

IT In

dex

NSE

MC

AP

Ind

ex

NSE

PH

RM

Ind

ex

NSE

BA

NK

Ind

ex

NSE

SRV

Ind

ex

NSE

50

0 In

dex

NSE

20

0 In

dex

NIF

TY In

dex

NSE

10

0 In

dex

NSE

REA

L In

dex

NSE

NR

G In

dex

NSE

INFR

Ind

ex

NSE

FMC

G In

dex

MoM(%) FYTD(%)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

01

/Jan

/20

14

/Jan

/20

27

/Jan

/20

09

/Feb

/20

22

/Feb

/20

06

/Mar

/20

19

/Mar

/20

01

/Ap

r/2

01

4/A

pr/

20

27

/Ap

r/2

01

0/M

ay/2

02

3/M

ay/2

00

5/J

un

/20

18

/Ju

n/2

00

1/J

ul/

20

14

/Ju

l/2

02

7/J

ul/

20

09

/Au

g/2

02

2/A

ug/

20

04

/Sep

/20

17

/Sep

/20

30

/Sep

/20

13

/Oct

/20

26

/Oct

/20

08

/No

v/2

02

1/N

ov/

20

Nifty 50 Nifty top 15

Nifty bottom 15



One-year rolling forward PE: Highs, lows, and current value FII and DII monthly net flows

Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 100, and Nifty Smallcap 100 Global indices: CYTD return


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Nif

ty 5

0

NIF

TY M

idca

p 1

00

NIF

TY S

mal

lcap

10

0

Nif

ty 1

00

Nif

ty 2

00

Nif

ty 5

00

Nif

ty S

ervi

ces

Sect

or

Nif

ty R

ealt

y

Nif

ty A

uto

Nif

ty E

ner

gy

Nif

ty F

MC

G

Nif

ty IT

Nif

ty In

fras

tru

ctu

re

Nif

ty M

etal

Nif

ty P

har

ma

Nif

ty B

ank

High-and-Low Current

(483)

653

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

-

200

400

600

800

Au

g/1

9

Sep

/19

Oct

/19

No

v/1

9

Dec

/19

Jan

/20

Feb

/20

Mar

/20

Ap

r/2

0

May

/20

Jun

/20

Jul/

20

Au

g/2

0

Sep

/20

Oct

/20

No

v/2

0

Net DII flows (Rs. bn) Net FII flows (Rs. bn)

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

3-J

an-2

0

18

-Jan

-20

2-F

eb-2

0

17

-Feb

-20

3-M

ar-2

0

18

-Mar

-20

2-A

pr-

20

17

-Ap

r-2

0

2-M

ay-2

0

17

-May

-20

1-J

un

-20

16

-Ju

n-2

0

1-J

ul-

20

16

-Ju

l-2

0

31

-Ju

l-2

0

15

-Au

g-2

0

30

-Au

g-2

0

14

-Sep

-20

29

-Sep

-20

14

-Oct

-20

29

-Oct

-20

13

-No

v-2

0

Nifty Index NSEMCAP IndexNSESMCP Index

22%

20%

13%

13%

6%

-3%

-6%

-11%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

CSI 300 INDEX

KOSPI INDEX

NIKKEI 225

S&P 500 INDEX

Nifty 50

HANG SENG CHINA ENT INDX

Euro Stoxx 50 Pr

Straits Times Index STI



Nifty valuation charts


Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Jul/05 Aug/07 Sep/09 Oct/11 Dec/13 Jan/16 Feb/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Nifty PE

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

Jul/05 Aug/07 Sep/09 Oct/11 Dec/13 Jan/16 Feb/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Nifty PB

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

5

10

15

20

25

30

Feb/06 Feb/08 Feb/10 Feb/12 Feb/14 Feb/16 Mar/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Midcap PE

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Feb/06 Feb/08 Feb/10 Feb/12 Feb/14 Feb/16 Mar/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Midcap PB

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Nov/11 Dec/13 Jan/16 Feb/18 Mar/20

12M Fwd Small Cap PE

Mean

Mean + 1SD

Mean -1SD

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5


NSE Small Cap PB



Nifty indices: Auto, IT, Pharma, Realty and Services Indexes are trading above +1SD. Metals, FMCG and Banks above LTA. Infra above -1SD. Energy, Media and PSU Banks are trading below -1SD.

Nifty sectoral indices


LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

8

13

18

23

28

33

38


Autos 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

-1SD

0

5

10

15

20

25 Banks 12m fwd PE

LPA LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dec/09 Feb/12 Apr/14 Jun/16 Sep/18 Nov/20

FMCG 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28 IT 12m fwd PE

LPA LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

10

15

20

25

30

35 Pharma 12m fwd PE

+ 1SD

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

0

5

10

15

20

25


PSU Banks 12m fwd PE



Nifty sectoral indices


LPA

+ 1SD + 1SD

-1SD

4

9

14

19

24

29

34

39

Feb/11 May/13 Aug/15 Nov/17 Mar/20

Realty 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


Metals 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26


Infra 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD + 1SD

-1SD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


Media 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan/09 Apr/11 Jun/13 Sep/15 Dec/17 Mar/20

Energy 12m fwd PE

LPA

+ 1SD

-1SD

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Jul/10 Dec/12 May/15 Oct/17 Mar/20

Service Sector 12m fwd PE



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