Institute for Sustainable Transportation Magnus Hunhammar 1-2/10 2007 PODCAR CITY Implementation plan and where to start 1.Vision 2.PRT Maturation 3.Difficulties

Institute for Sustainable Transportation

1-2/10 2007PODCAR CITYMagnus Hunhammar

Implementation plan and where to start

1. Vision

2. PRT Maturation

3. Difficulties

4. Starting point => the Car City

5. Road map

6. Where to start?

7. Joint forces



A passenger’s highest wish:

”is a vehicle that arrives outside his door exactly when he wants, drives him without stops direct to the destination and thereafter disappears”

Source: Herlitz, Eie & Jan Wiklund (2006) Kollektivtrafik för bilistens behov, Alternativ stad



• PRT has followed an extended R&D stage and is entering an early adopter stage of maturation

Hig

hA

do

ptio

nL

ow

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Basic Research -Concept Development

Applied Research -Prototype and Pilot Systems

Early Adopters - Public Systems

Small – Moderate Scale Systems

Large Scale Urban Mass Market

Cabintaxi, CVS, Raytheon, ULTRa, EDICT, Vectus, Siemens?

Aerospace, UMTA, AGRT, U of M

Morgantown Heathrow, UAE? Sweden? Macau?

Standardization, Public/Private Development

Regulated Utilities, Commoditization

We are at a technology inflection point

PRT Technology Maturation Source: Booz/Allen/Hamilton



Uppsala

Upsala Nya Tidning 29/12 1998

UNT 28/1 1999

Proposed 22 km automated track



Difficulties• Socially

– The impression of freedom that car gives– The orientation towards contemporary time

• Politically– Why jeopardize political capital, with costs now and

gains long after election cycle?– Sunk costs (wrong decisions, lost investments in

current technology, etc) • Economically

– Is there a first mover advantage?– What are the adaptive expectations?– When is the timing right? - when many face a critical

junction.



Call for actions



Symposium: The Car City (1956) – a new trigger in urban planning

1965 19741956 1960

Sym

posi

um a

t K

TH

: T

he C

ar C

ity (

“Bils

tade

n”)

Pol

icy

& p

lann

ing

docu

men

tT

he C

ar C

ity (

“Bils

tade

n”)

Stockholm City 1971

Staffanstorp 1970“The Million Homes Program”Sweden:

Tensta 1971



Our starting point: The Car CityEskilstuna 1949

Eskilstuna 19670

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Bil

Buss+Spårvagn+Tbana

Persontrafik-arbete (SIKA)

Mdr personkm

Public transport

CarSwedishPersonalTransports

Source: SIKA



Urban Sprawl

Population Urban area

Gothenburg 1945-90 + 54 % + 600 %

Los Angeles 1970-90 + 45 % + 300 %

Detroit 1970-2000 - 2 % + 45 %

Land used for transport systems, i.e. for roads and parking lots

London Central 25 %

Los Angeles 70 %

Source: Kummel, Linda (2006) Den glesa staden, Naturskyddsföreningen



Example Värmdö (Ingrid)

Home

GrandmaWork

School Shops

47%

15%

22%

16%

Local

Neighbour

Main City

Others



Roadmap

Commercialsystems

IdeasInnovation

AnalysisPlans

Test tracks< 1 mile

Pilot tracks2-12 miles

Large networks

R&D funds Venture capital Gov. guaranteesBuild/operate/transfer Stock market

2007 2009 2012-15 2016 ->



Where to start?



Connect old and new

Värtan

Heleneberg - Kista

Sundbyberg-Brommaplan

STOCKHOLM commuter train and underground system



Värtan

T

T

T

Pod

net

desi

gn:

Ingm

ar A

ndré

asso

n



Scalable Network Systems

Franchise District #1


Franchise District #2Franchise District #1



• Podcar systems have the potential to evolve from local circulation and distribution systems to a full regional network



Large net connecting towns

Develop the Mälar Valley region: Bridging Eskilstuna – Västerås by Podcars?



Joint forces, e.g. “KOMPASS”Stakeholder needs

City ATravelers

Operators

Investors

Land developers

Closeby residents

Authorities: fire, environment etc

Urban/regionalplanners

Business/Tourism

Community

Govt’s

Common & individualrequirement

specifications

Suppliers

Functionalmarket req’ts

SYNTHESIS

Pilot A

Pilot B

Pilot C

PROCUREMENT

Results

EVALUATION



Swedish Authorities Ask IST for:• A strategic foundation for government policies

on new advanced transport systems, with a focus on PRT

• The government’s role during the introduction of PRT

• How new and old traffic systems can integrates• Consequences for urban planning• Democratic aspects (gender, demographical,

geographical…)Authorities: Vägverket (Swedish National Road Administration), Banverket (Swedish National Rail Administration) & VINNOVA (Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems)



ISTISTInstitute for Sustainable Institute for Sustainable

TransportationTransportation

Thank you for your attention

Documents

Institute for Sustainable Transportation Magnus Hunhammar 1-2/10 2007 PODCAR CITY Implementation plan and where to start 1.Vision 2.PRT Maturation 3.Difficulties