Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions ... · Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016) Demand side (destination): moves within

Maldon District Council Maldon District Local Development Plan

Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and

Questions (November 2016)

Matters 2, 3, 4 and 5: Strategic housing growth

Q1 & 2 Housing Market Area

Statement made on behalf of the Local Planning Authority

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Maldon District Local Development Plan Examination: Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016)

STATEMENT

MATTERS 2, 3, 4 AND 5: STRATEGIC HOUSING GROWTH

Inspector’s Matter

Issue: Are the policies for strategic housing growth justified, effective and consistent with national policy?

Inspector’s Questions

The Housing Market Area

1. The Council identifies Maldon district as one Housing Market Area. At present I havesome reservations about the extent to which the evidence supports this position. Is it ajustified stance to take?

2. Has the Council explored the alternative proposition that Maldon forms part of one widerHousing Market Area? If not, why not?

Maldon District Council response

1.1 The statement below is in response to both Questions 1 and 2.

1.2 National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG), Housing and economic development

needs assessments, paragraph 8 states that housing needs should be assessed in

relation to the relevant functional area i.e. Housing Market Area.

1.3 NPPG paragraph 10 defines a Housing Market Area as, “a geographical area defined

by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key

functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case

that housing market areas overlap”.

1.4 NPPG paragraph 11 suggests that Housing Market Areas can be broadly defined by

using three different sources of information as follows:

• House prices and rates of change in house prices;

• Household migration and search patterns; and

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• Contextual data (for example travel to work area boundaries, retail and school

catchment areas).

1.5 In line with NPPG, this SHMA Update reviews relevant data to establish the extent to

which Maldon District can be described Housing Market Area.

House prices and rates of change in house prices

1.6 NPPG paragraph 11 states that,

‘Housing market areas can be identified by assessing patterns in the relationship

between housing demand and supply across different locations. This analysis uses

house prices to provide a ‘market-based’ reflection of housing market area

boundaries. It enables the identification of areas which have clearly different price

levels compared to surrounding areas. The findings provide information about

differences across the area in terms of the price people pay for similar housing,

market ‘hotspots’, low demand areas and volatility.’

1.7 The following map shows the Essex sub-areas in relation to housing market area

boundaries.

SPATIAL PATTERN OF GROWTH

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• The distribution of housing growth is focused along four key corridors:

� The A12 & Great Eastern Mainline Corridor

� The A120 Haven Gateway Corridor

� The M11 London Stansted Cambridge Corridor

� The A127 and A13 Corridors.

1.8 As noted in the response to the Inspector’s question 3(c), Maldon’s housing market is

very different from that in Chelmsford, Braintree and Colchester. As Figure 2 in that

response shows, 46% of sales in in Maldon in the 12 months to Q1 2016 were

detached properties compared with 24-26% in Chelmsford, Braintree and

Colchester. This reflects the fact that Maldon is predominantly a rural area with much

lower population density than either Chelmsford or Colchester. As a consequence,

its housing offer is radically different.

Migration and self-containment

1.9 In relation to migration, PPG paragraph 11 states:

‘Migration flows and housing search patterns reflect preferences and the trade-offs

made when choosing housing with different characteristics. Analysis of migration flow

patterns can help to identify these relationships and the extent to which people move

house within an area. The findings can identify the areas within which a relatively

high proportion of household moves (typically 70 per cent) are contained. This

excludes long distance moves (e.g. those due to a change of lifestyle or retirement),

reflecting the fact that most people move relatively short distances due to

connections to families, friends, jobs, and schools.’

1.10 That said, previous CLG guidance recognised that ‘rural areas typically have less

locally self-contained migration patterns, reflecting the influence of long-distance

movers who are opting for lifestyle change or retirement’1

1.11 Data reported in the 2011 Census provides evidence from which the degree of self-

containment of Maldon District can be derived. PAS guidance recommends that

migration data are tested against the PPG criterion for self-containment, that at least

70% of all migration excluding long-distance migration should be contained within the

HMA. A suitable test are two migration containment ratios:

Supply side (origin): moves within the area divided by all moves whose origin is in

the area, excluding long-distance moves

1 DCLG Advice Note: Identifying sub-regional housing market areas 2007

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Demand side (destination): moves within the area divided by all moves whose

destination is in the area, excluding long-distance migration

1.12 Table 1.1 presents relevant data for Maldon and Table 1.2 summaries the

containment ratios derived from the data. Table 1.1 illustrates that 49.2% of all

residents moving who originated in Maldon remained in the District and of all

residents moving to a property in Maldon 47.4% had originated in the district. Table

1.1 also summarises the origins of moving residents based on 2011 Census data and

indicates strong flows from neighbouring districts 22.7% (origin-based) and 24.2%

(destination-based), with strongest flows between Maldon and Chelmsford.

Table 3.2 summaries the containment ratios that apply to the origin and destination of

moving residents. In line with PPG guidance, this excludes long-distance migration

(which is taken as moves from outside Essex). The origin containment ratio is 60.1%

and the destination is 60.8%

Table 1.1 Flows of residents (all moves)

Origin/

Destination

Supply Side (Origin) Demand Side (Destination)

All Moves

Excluding

Long

Distance

Moves All Moves

Excluding

Long

Distance

Moves

Number % % Number % %

Maldon 2,297 49.2 60.1 2,297 47.4 60.8

Colchester 201 4.3 5.3 298 6.2 7.9

Braintree 286 6.1 7.5 355 7.3 9.4

Chelmsford 520 11.1 13.6 474 9.8 12.5

Rochford 52 1.1 1.4 43 0.9 1.1

Elsewhere Essex 465 10.0 12.2 312 6.4 8.3

Elsewhere East of

England 152 3.3 230 4.7

London 341 7.3 215 4.4

Elsewhere UK 359 7.7 620 12.8

TOTAL 4,673 100.0 100.0 4,844 100.0 100.0

Base (excluding

long-distance

moves)

3,821 3,779

Source: 2011 Census

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Table 1.2 Containment ratios

Origin Moves within the area Moves originating in the

area

Containment

Ratio

2,297 4,314 60.12%

Destination Moves within the area Moves whose destination

is in the area

Containment

Ratio

2,297 4,224 60.78%

Source: 2011 Census

1.13 In common with many rural districts, the level of containment in Maldon is lower than

the 70% CLG threshold but this reflects the complexity of migration interactions with

other areas. To illustrate this, Figure 1.1 considers the net age specific migration

observed in the 2011 census. It demonstrates there was an overall net out-migration

in the year preceding the census driven by net out-migration of the 16-49 age group,

particularly to elsewhere in the UK. There were net outflows to neighbouring

Colchester and Braintree; and net inflows from Chelmsford and Rochford.

Figure 1.1 Net migration flows by age group and origin/destination

Source 2011 census

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Aged 75+

Aged 65-74

Aged 50-64

Aged 16-49

Aged 1-15

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1.14 Given that Maldon exhibits a lower degree of self-containment and in the context of

defining the housing market area, it is worth considering how interactions with

Maldon are perceived by neighbouring authorities:

o Braintree, Chelmsford, Colchester and Tendring authority areas lie adjacent

to Maldon District, to the north and west. These four authorities are identified

as a single housing market area in their joint Objectively Assessed Housing

Need Study2 and joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update3. The

analysis within the OAHN Study suggests that an HMA comprising Braintree,

Chelmsford, Colchester and Tendring forms a sound basis for assessing

housing need. The SHMA Update accepts these conclusions and provides

further detail of the type and tenure of housing needed in the HMA. These two

documents together constitute the SHMA for the four authorities and they

form the evidence base that these authorities are using in their emerging

Local Plans.

o Rochford District lies to the south of Maldon. It strongly identifies itself as one

of the Thames Gateway South Essex (TGSE) authorities in its adopted Core

Strategy of December 2011. This association continues, with the recent

Strategic Housing Market Assessment: South Essex4 report demonstrating a

strong degree of self-containment (migration and commuting) when the five

constituent authorities of Basildon, Castle Point, Southend-on-Sea, Thurrock

and Rochford are analysed together. By comparison, it found that these

authorities have low levels of self-containment when looked at individually.

The report concludes that it is appropriate to consider the five authorities as a

single housing market area.

1.15 Therefore, all of the neighbouring areas are established housing market areas in their

own right. Although interactions with other areas are recognised, from the

perspective of these local authorities, there is no requirement to include Maldon as

part of their respective housing market areas. The logical conclusion is therefore that

Maldon has to be considered as a housing market area in its own right and for the

purposes of planning policy.

2 Peter Brett Associates, July 2015 and updated January 2016

3 HDH Planning, December 2015

4 Turley and Edge Analytics, May 2016

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Travel to work

1.16 In terms of defining market areas, NPPG does not suggest an appropriate self-

containment figure. However, the ONS provides a definition of Travel to Work areas

as:

‘The current criterion for defining TTWs is that generally at least 75% of an area’s

resident workforce in the area and at least 75% of the people who work in the area

also live in the area…however, for areas with a working population in excess of

25,000, self-containment rates as low as 66.7% are accepted’5

1.17 Analysis of 2011 census travel to work data illustrates that there is a notable out-

commute of economically active residents who live in Maldon. Overall, 55% live and

work in Maldon and a further 13.5% work in Chelmsford and 9% in other

neighbouring Districts. A further 9.8% work elsewhere in Essex and 9.9% in London.

However, of residents who work in Maldon, 72% live in the District. This analysis

would therefore suggest that Maldon is part of a wider functional economic area

extending across Essex and London but it should be noted that of those working in

Maldon, the majority also live in the District.

Table 1.3 Maldon 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74)

Where do people who live in Maldon work?

Live Work Number %

Maldon

Maldon 16,761 55.0

Chelmsford 4,122 13.5

Braintree 1,339 4.4

Colchester 1,137 3.7

Rochford 281 0.9

Elsewhere Essex 2,986 9.8

Elsewhere East of England 387 1.3

London 3,025 9.9

Elsewhere UK 426 1.4

Workers 30,464 100.0

Where to people who work in Maldon live?

Live Work Number %

5https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articl

es/commutingtoworkchangestotraveltoworkareas/2001to2011

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Maldon

Maldon

16,761 72.0


Braintree 1,363 5.9


Rochford 196 0.8

Elsewhere Essex 971 4.2


London 314 1.3


Jobs 23,293 100.0

Source 2011 census

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1.18 For comparison, the neighbouring districts were examined in relation to travel to work

patterns. The following tables show the full breakdown.

Table 3.3 Braintree 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74)

Where do people who live in Braintree work?

Live Work Number %

Braintree

Braintree 42,807 57.5


Maldon 1,363 1.8


Rochford 124 0.2


Elsewhere East of England 4,519 6.1

London 7,151 9.6


Workers 74,422 100.0

Source 2011 census

1.19 Overall, 57.5% live and work in Braintree and a further 9.2% work in Chelmsford, only

1.8% work in Maldon. 9.4% work elsewhere in Essex and 9.6% work in London.

Table 3.3 Chelmsford 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74)

Where do people who live in Chelmsford work?

Live Work Number %

Chelmsford


Braintree 2,634 3.0

Maldon 1,727 2.0

Colchester 949 1.1

Rochford 658 0.8



London 14,080 16.2

Elsewhere UK 1,271 1.5

Workers 86,764 100.0

Source 2011 census

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1.20 Overall, 60.5% live and work in Chelmsford and a further 3.0% work in Braintree, with

around 2.0% working in Maldon. 16.2% work in London and 13.4% work elsewhere in

Essex.

Table 3.3 Colchester 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74)

Where do people who live in Colchester work?

Live Work Number %

Colchester


Braintree 3,617 4.2

Maldon 1,384 1.6


Rochford 91 0.1



London 6,093 7.1

Elsewhere UK 1,050 1.2

Workers 86,309 100.0

Source 2011 census

1.21 Overall, 70.9% live and work in Colchester and a further 4.2% work in Braintree, with

around 1.6% working in Maldon. 7.1% work in London and 6.4% work elsewhere in

Essex.

Table 3.3 Rochford 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16-74)

Where do people who live in Rochford work?

Live Work Number %

Rochford

Rochford 16,437 40.3

Braintree 177 0.4

Maldon 196 0.5


Colchester 113 0.3



London 6,919 17.0


Workers 40,799 100.0

Source 2011 census

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1.22 Overall, 40.3% live and work in Rochford and a further 0.4% work in Braintree, with

around 0.5% working in Maldon. Around 17.0% work in London and 36.0% work

elsewhere in Essex, with the main areas being Southend-on-Sea and Basildon.

Concluding comments

1.23 The purpose of this document has been to consider the extent to which Maldon can

be considered to be a housing market area. This reflects the requirements of PPG

Paragraph 2a-011 and has been considered with reference to reviewing house

prices, migration and travel to work patterns. PPG establishes that areas within which

a relatively high proportion of household moves (typically 70%) are contained

although former CLG guidance recognises that containment thresholds are typically

lower in rural areas.

1.24 Regarding migration, analysis of the 2011 census identifies containment ratios of

60.1% (origin) and 60.8% (destination). This reflects the rural nature of the district

and an expectation of lower containment ratios. It also reflects the complexity of the

Maldon area as evidence through an analysis of migration data from the 2011

census.

1.25 The largest proportion of moves to and from Maldon is fairly self-contained.

However, there is fairly significant movement also to and from Chelmsford, rest of

Essex and elsewhere in the UK.

1.26 Additionally, all neighbouring areas are established housing market areas in their

own right and Maldon is not included as a component of their respective housing

market areas. Therefore, a pragmatic conclusion is although there are interactions

with other areas, Maldon District should be recognised as an appropriate housing

market area for the purposes of planning policy, and that containment thresholds

accord with the understanding that they are typically lower in rural areas.

1.27 Regarding travel to work, it can also be concluded that Maldon is part of a wider

functional economic area extending across Essex and London, but it should be noted

that the majority of people working in Maldon also live in the District. The self-

containment level in Maldon is 55.0% of people who live and work in the District.

This is very similar level when compared to the neighbouring authorities of Braintree

and Chelmsford. The self-containment level is higher in Colchester, but is

significantly lower in Rochford (40.3%).

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1.28 It is therefore concluded that although the overall degree of self-containment is lower

than that suggested by CLG, it is justifiable and appropriate to consider Maldon

District as a housing market area for planning policy purposes.

1.29 In response specifically to Question 2, the SHMA was originally commissioned

with Braintree, Brentwood, Chelmsford and Colchester Councils. In addition to

the conclusions outlined above and in EB010, the timetable for completion of

the strategic HMA was at odds with the Council’s timetable for the production

the LDP. As the early indications from the joint work were concluding that

Maldon’s housing market area could justifiably be seen as being self-

contained, and as such would not prejudice the SHMA nor its own HMA, the

Council withdraw from the joint SHMA (as did Brentwood, who were in a

similar position) and progressed with the separate HMA.

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Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions ... · Response to Inspector’s Further Matters, Issues and Questions (November 2016) Demand side (destination): moves within