25
The month of July put us well ahead of the pace needed to achieve our portfolio’s goal of garnering a high- single-digit return this year. We’re now up 6.7% and continue to have an expected annual dividend yield (3.8%) greater than that of even other less-diversified financial instruments. Since the previous edition of our Dividend Growth Newsletter, we received some welcome news from Republic Services (RSG) as the trash taker raised its dividend 7% after reporting improved second-quarter results. Phillips 66 (PSX), which was spun off from ConocoPhillips (COP), also had an excellent month of performance, gaining over 13%. We’re now sitting on roughly a 4.4% cash position, and we will be looking to put this to work in coming weeks. The firms on our watch lists and screens (page 9, 11, and 17) remain key candidates for addition to our Dividend Growth portfolio. Our Portfolio Remains Well Positioned for Dividend Growth Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion (please see page 13) was created in part to protect investors from firms that are at risk for a dividend cut. In mid-June, SuperValu (SVU) was forced to cut its dividend as a result of deteriorating fundamentals and a tighter cash position. The Valuentum Dividend Cushion indicated that SuperValu’s dividend safety was poor long before this news. In fact, SuperValu scored a -10 (a negative 10) on our Valuentum Dividend Cushion where a score well north of 1 is desirable. Using the Valuentum Dividend Cushion measure (found in the header of our dividend reports) is one of the best ways to ensure companies in your portfolio are financially sound so that they can continue to pay you safe and growing dividends long into the future. Please click on the link below to view our archived dividend report on SuperValu: http://www.valuentum.com/downloads/20120207_6/download I NSIDE T HIS I SSUE 1 Our Portfolio Remains Well Positioned for Dividend Growth 1 The Valuentum Dividend Cushion Predicts SuperValu’s Dividend Cut (ticker: SVU) 2 Intel’s 2Q Results Were Mixed; The Stock Still Looks Cheap (ticker: INTC) 3 Republic Services Reports Strong 2Q; Raises Dividend 7% (ticker: RSG) 3 Colgate and Kimberly Clark Post Strong 2Q Results (tickers: CL, KMB) 4 Exxon Reports 2Q Results; We Prefer Peers (ticker: XOM) 4 Altria Posts Fantastic Second Quarter Earnings (ticker: MO) 5 Our Dividend Growth Portfolio 6 Hasbro Struggles in the Second Quarter (ticker: HAS) 7 Microsoft’s Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter Overshadowed by Future Catalysts (ticker: MSFT) 8 Merck Reports Solid 2Q; Its Pipeline Looks Promising (ticker: MRK) 9 Stocks with High VBI Ratings and Strong Dividend Growth Prospects 10 McDonald’s Reports Second Quarter Results (ticker: MCD) 11 Our Dividend Growth Watch List 12 Chevron Boasts Strong Downstream Performance in 2Q (ticker: CVX) 12 J&J Faces Currency Headwinds But Its Stock Remains Undervalued (ticker: JNJ) 13 About Our Dividend Cushion™ 16 Yields to Avoid 17 Yields to Consider 18 Featured Reports: Realty Income, J&J, Republic Services, H&R Block 22 Our Valuentum Buying Index 25 Valuentum Definitions August 1, 2012 Volume 1 Issue 8 By Brian Nelson, CFA RJ Towner Please see Our Dividend Growth Portfolio on page 5 Valuentum Securities Inc. www.valuentum.com [email protected] OUR DIVIDEND GROWTH NEWSLETTER Brian Nelson, CFA President, Equity Research [email protected] RJ Towner Associate Director, Equity Research [email protected] © 2012 Valuentum. All rights reserved. Reproduction by any means is prohibited. The Valuentum Dividend Cushion Predicts SuperValu’s Dividend Cut

INSIDE THIS ISSUE 1 Our Portfolio Remains Well Positioned

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The month of July put us well ahead of the pace needed to achieve our portfolio’s goal of garnering a high-single-digit return this year. We’re now up 6.7% and continue to have an expected annual dividend yield (3.8%) greater than that of even other less-diversified financial instruments.

Since the previous edition of our Dividend Growth Newsletter, we received some welcome news from Republic Services (RSG) as the trash taker raised its dividend 7% after reporting improved second-quarter results. Phillips 66 (PSX), which was spun off from ConocoPhillips (COP), also had an excellent month of performance, gaining over 13%.

We’re now sitting on roughly a 4.4% cash position, and we will be looking to put this to work in coming weeks. The firms on our watch lists and screens (page 9, 11, and 17) remain key candidates for addition to our Dividend Growth portfolio.

Our Portfolio Remains Well Positioned for Dividend Growth

Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion (please see page 13) was created in part to protect investors from firms that are at risk for a dividend cut. In mid-June, SuperValu (SVU) was forced to cut its dividend as a result of deteriorating fundamentals and a tighter cash position. The Valuentum Dividend Cushion indicated that SuperValu’s dividend safety was poor long before this news. In fact, SuperValu scored a -10 (a negative 10) on our Valuentum Dividend Cushion where a score well north of 1 is desirable. Using the Valuentum Dividend Cushion measure (found in the header of our dividend reports) is one of the best ways to ensure companies in your portfolio are financially sound so that they can continue to pay you safe and growing dividends long into the future. Please click on the link below to view our archived dividend report on SuperValu: http://www.valuentum.com/downloads/20120207_6/download

I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E 1 Our Portfolio Remains Well

Positioned for Dividend Growth

1 The Valuentum Dividend Cushion Predicts SuperValu’s Dividend Cut (ticker: SVU)

2 Intel’s 2Q Results Were Mixed; The Stock Still Looks Cheap (ticker: INTC)

3 Republic Services Reports Strong 2Q; Raises Dividend 7% (ticker: RSG)

3 Colgate and Kimberly Clark Post Strong 2Q Results (tickers: CL, KMB)

4 Exxon Reports 2Q Results; We Prefer Peers (ticker: XOM)

4 Altria Posts Fantastic Second Quarter Earnings (ticker: MO)

5 Our Dividend Growth Portfolio

6 Hasbro Struggles in the Second Quarter (ticker: HAS)

7 Microsoft’s Strong Fiscal Fourth Quarter Overshadowed by Future Catalysts (ticker: MSFT)

8 Merck Reports Solid 2Q; Its Pipeline Looks Promising (ticker: MRK)

9 Stocks with High VBI Ratings and Strong Dividend Growth Prospects

10 McDonald’s Reports Second Quarter Results (ticker: MCD)

11 Our Dividend Growth Watch List

12 Chevron Boasts Strong Downstream Performance in 2Q (ticker: CVX)

12 J&J Faces Currency Headwinds But Its Stock Remains Undervalued (ticker: JNJ)

13 About Our Dividend Cushion™

16 Yields to Avoid

17 Yields to Consider

18 Featured Reports: Realty Income, J&J, Republic Services, H&R Block

22 Our Valuentum Buying Index

25 Valuentum Definitions

August 1, 2012 Volume 1 Issue 8

By Brian Nelson, CFA

RJ Towner

Please see Our Dividend Growth Portfolio on page 5

Valuentum Securities Inc. www.valuentum.com [email protected]

OUR DIVIDEND GROWTH NEWSLETTER

Brian Nelson, CFA

President, Equity Research

[email protected]

RJ Towner

Associate Director, Equity Research

[email protected]

© 2012 Valuentum. All rights reserved.

Reproduction by any means is prohibited.

The Valuentum Dividend Cushion Predicts SuperValu’s Dividend Cut

Page 2 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Global chip maker and Dividend Growth portfolio holding Intel ($0.84 annual payout; 3.2% dividend yield) reported stronger than expected earnings despite soft global economic growth. The firm earned $0.54 per share versus the $0.52 per share that the Street was expecting. Revenue grew 4% year-over-year to $13.5 billion, but came in slightly shy of expectations. Top-line growth suggests the firm is taking share from rival AMD (AMD) without slashing prices too much. Intel also posted a strong gross margin of 63.4%, down from the first quarter’s 64% gross margin but on the higher end of the firm’s guidance range.

Not surprisingly, performance was inconsistent across geographies. Revenue in the Americas fell 1% year-over-year due to weaker demand as a result of low inventories and soft PC orders. The firm expects seasonal weakness in North America as users wait for the release of Windows 8 (MSFT) before upgrading their hardware. Yet, with the release of the Surface tablet and unexpected popularity of Windows 8, we could see the firm experience better than anticipated demand in the fourth quarter. Revenue grew 6% in Europe and 5% in the Asia-Pacific region, year-over-year, though both could suffer from lower demand in the back half of the year, in our view.

In addition to geographical differences, Intel experienced varying performance across its different business segments. The PC Client Group, which is by far Intel’s largest segment, saw sales grow 4%. The firm attributed this acceleration to unit demand growth (up 7% on a year-over-year basis), which offset slightly lower average selling prices (down 2% from the same period last year). We think this group could face headwinds in the third quarter.

Conversely, thanks to the explosion of data, the Data Center Group grew revenues 15%, to $2.8 billion. Enterprises continue to invest in data storage, a trend we do not see decelerating as the amount of data is practically growing daily. The firm’s software group also grew revenues 15% compared to the same quarter last year and swung from a $14 million loss to a $14 million profit. We think the firm’s investment in McAfee and its subsequent security integration with Intel hardware continues to accrue to the bottom line.

Though we think the firm’s second quarter was strong, Intel’s outlook for the third quarter and fiscal year are a tad weaker than we previously anticipated. Intel guided to 3-5% revenue growth for 2012, down from its previous mid-single-digit range as a result of softness in North America and lower than anticipated global economic growth. R&D (including M&A) spending was also cut by $100 million, though the firm will still spend $18-$18.4 billion on capital investments. We admit the global economic outlook looks grim for the remainder of the year, but we still wouldn’t be shocked to see Intel exceed its conservative internal targets.

Even if global economic growth remains sluggish going forward, we have little doubt that Intel will be able to successfully navigate difficult times. The firm’s consistent investments in its own technology and acquisitions of complementary businesses have proven to be a winning formula over the past few years. We expect this trend to continue. Ultrabooks, the launch of Ivy Bridge and Windows 8 are compelling catalysts that will surface in the back half of this year. Additionally, Intel continues to be very shareholder friendly—shares yield 3.2% at current levels and the firm has bought back gobs of stock ($1.1 billion during the most recent quarter). With its mobile business ramping up and the firm stealing share from AMD, Intel is poised to remain a dominant player in the chip industry for years to come. We think shares are significantly undervalued, and we hold the chip maker in our Dividend Growth portfolio.

By RJ Towner Intel’s 2Q Results Were Mixed; The Stock Still Looks Cheap

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 3

Republic Services Reports Strong 2Q; Raises Dividend 7%

By Valuentum Analysts

Trash taker and Dividend Growth portfolio holding Republic Services (RSG) reported refreshing second-quarter results after its poor first-quarter performance a few short months ago. The firm also increased its quarterly dividend by roughly 7% to $0.235 per share (3.2% dividend yield), about in line with what we had been expecting. We think the trash taker is making appropriate strides to get back on track, and we still view the shares as undervalued.

Excluding a number of non-recurring items, Republic posted earnings per share of $0.59 versus the $0.49 mark in the same period a year ago. However, the firm’s adjusted EBITDA fell modestly from last year’s quarter, as slower revenue and margin pressure (down 80 basis points) hurt performance. The decrease in revenue of 1.2% was mainly attributable to lower volumes, and the increase in core price of 0.6% was a bit lower than we would have liked.

Still, the company offered a decent earnings outlook, with diluted earnings per share expected to be in the range of $1.91 to $1.93 for the year. We were also pleased to learn that Republic has completed its refinancing activities and doesn’t have a significant debt maturity until 2016. We take this refinancing news, in conjunction with the recent dividend hike, to mean that investors should expect high-single-digit dividend growth for years to come (now that certain cash obligations have been pushed into the future). We continue to hold Republic in our actively-managed portfolios.

By Valuentum Analysts

Colgate and Kimberly Clark Post Strong 2Q Results

Consumer products firms Colgate (CL)—2.3% dividend yield—and Kimberly Clark (KMB)—3.4% dividend yield— posted strong second-quarter results. Both companies achieved strong organic growth and were able to offset increased raw and packaging material costs with higher pricing to drive earnings expansion, though Kimberly Clark’s was much more robust. We plan to make some tweaks to our valuation models of these companies, but we don’t expect to change our fair value estimates materially.

Net sales at Colgate advanced 2% in the quarter as global unit volume jumped 5% and pricing increased 3.5% (currency was a 6.5 percentage point headwind). The firm posted impressive organic revenue growth of 8% thanks to stellar performance in emerging markets where sales jumped 13% (developed markets expanded 2.5% during the period). Adjusted earnings per share advanced to $1.33 in the quarter (in line with consensus), up from $1.26 per share in the same quarter a year ago. Colgate successfully offset increases in raw and packaging material costs in the period, as gross margins swelled 50 basis points, to 57.7%. Looking ahead, the company expects diluted earnings per share during 2012 to grow at a double-digit rate (on a currency-neutral basis), a pace we think is achievable.

Similarly, Kimberly Clark achieved organic sales expansion of 5% during the second quarter thanks to improved volumes, up 2%, and better pricing, up 2% (product mix and currency accounted for the majority of the balance). Organic revenue at the firm’s international business (K-C International) grew 9%. Adjusted diluted net income per share at the company increased to $1.30 from $1.18 in the same period a year ago, despite unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates. Similar to Colgate, Kimberly Clark experienced significant adjusted gross margin expansion (up 240 basis points from the same period a year ago). The firm also raised its earnings outlook for the year to the range of $5.05 to $5.20 per share (was $5.00 to $5.15) as management now expects higher organic growth and improved margin performance relative to previous expectations.

The share price of each firm falls within its respective fair value range, so we’d look for a larger margin of safety before considering either as a dividend growth investment at this time.

Page 4 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Cigarette maker Altria (MO)—$1.64 annual payout; 4.6% dividend yield—reported excellent results. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter increased 9.3% to $0.59, $0.02 higher than the consensus estimate. Revenues also outpaced expectations, growing 9.6% to $6.5 billion—about $2 billion north of what consensus had predicted. Net of excise taxes, revenue grew at an even more impressive pace of 14.4%, to $4.6 billion. The Marlboro brand name remains strong, and we think shares have modest valuation upside from current levels.

Perhaps the most telling data point out of Altria’s second quarter report was the firm’s ability to grow revenues in spite of declining cigarette volume. Shipments of Marlboro cigarettes, by far Altria’s largest brand, fell 0.8% to 31.3 billion sticks, while other premium brand shipments fell 8.4% to 2.3 billion sticks. Though discount stick shipments increased 24% year-over-year, aggregate cigarette shipments only grew 0.1% on a year-over-year basis, meaning Altria has been able to successfully raise prices and retain its brand loyalty. The firm’s market share increased 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, to 50.3%.

Even if it may seem clear that domestic cigarette smoking is in long-term decline, we think worries are slightly exaggerated. According to the Center for Disease Control, it appears that smoking among teens is declining at a slower rate than it did at the beginning of the millennium. Since cigarette smoking is addictive, youth smoking trends are a fairly good indicator of future cigarette consumption, in our view. We believe that in the United States, facts about the dangers of smoking are transparent and well distributed, so we see no reason why any decline in smoking would suddenly accelerate (unfortunately for the public’s health but fortunately for Altria’s business prospects).

Altria Posts Fantastic Second Quarter Earnings By RJ Towner

Please see Altria Posts Fantastic Second Quarter Earnings …On Page 8

Exxon Reports 2Q Results; We Prefer Peers By Valuentum Analysts

Oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil (XOM)—$2.28 annual payout; 2.6% dividend yield—reported poor second-quarter earnings. Excluding a net gain of $7.5 billion associated with divestments and tax-related items, second quarter earnings were $8.4 billion, falling from $10.68 billion in the year-ago period and coming in below consensus expectations. Though the weaker earnings could almost have been expected given the drop in oil prices toward the end of the period, we nonetheless were less-than-thrilled by the performance. We don’t expect to make a material change to our fair value estimate, however.

Exxon continues to invest at a rapid pace, with the firm spending a record $18.2 billion in capital and exploration expenditures during the first six months of the year. The oil and gas giant expects to invest a whopping $37 billion per year over the next five years to meet growing energy needs. Though we’re confident these investments will bear fruit in the long run, any near-term boost from them remains muddied by global economic uncertainty and the resulting impact on energy prices. Further, the company’s recent acquisition of XTO Energy in 2010 made it the largest domestic natural-gas producer, and such a position has only hurt profitability (given recent natural gas price declines).

Still, Exxon continues to be shareholder friendly. However, given the company’s share price relative to our fair value estimate, we’re not huge fans of its decision to buy back stock. We’d instead like to see the firm raise its dividend, which continues to trail peers—ConocoPhillips (COP), Chevron (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS)—in terms of yield. We’re not compelled to own Exxon as a dividend-growth investment at these levels.

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 5

Standard Disclaimer: Our Dividend Growth portfolio is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of our Dividend Growth Newsletter and accepts no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content.

We expect our Dividend Growth portfolio to garner an income stream higher than that of the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund (DVY) and the S&P 500 Index (SPY) in coming periods.

Though we have minor exceptions for diversification (e.g. utilities), each firm when entered into our Dividend Growth portfolio above meets our demanding criteria (attractively valued, strong Valuentum Dividend Cushion™, solid dividend-growth potential). The mix of mature high-yielders and long-term dividend-growers provides a good balance and consistent estimated monthly dividend income stream, as revealed by the graph to the right. Since the previous edition of our newsletter, we’ve received (or have in receivables) quarterly dividend payments from ConocoPhillips (COP), Hasbro (HAS), Kinder Morgan (KMP), Medtronic (MDT), P&G (PG), and Phillips 66 (PSX) to the tune of ~$327.

January is impacted by a few equities whose ex-dividend dates occurred in December before their purchase date. Adjusting for this, the payout would be $324 in January, consistent with April, July, and October. Projections as of Jan 1, 2012.

Our Dividend Growth Portfolio

DIVIDEND GROWTH PORTFOLIO -- as of July 31, 2012Company Name Yrly Div's Paid ($) / Shr Div Yield % Ex Div Date Next Pay Date (cycl) Div Cushion™ Div Safety LT Div Growth Rate % Fair Value VBI Score Price/Fair Value

Altria (MO) 1.64 4.56% mid-Sep 2012 mid Oct 2012 (quart) 1.3 GOOD 5.0 $38.00 7 0.95

Chevron (CVX) 3.60 3.29% mid-Aug 2012 early Sep 2012 (quart) 3.1 EXCELLENT 8.0 $132.00 3 0.83

ConocoPhillips (COP) 2.64 4.85% mid-Oct 2012 early Nov 2012 (quart) UR UR UR UR UR UR

Emerson Electric (EMR) 1.60 3.35% early Aug 2012 mid-Sep 2012 (quart) 2.0 GOOD 8.0 $54.00 3 0.88

Energy Transfer (ETP) 3.58 7.82% early Aug 2012 Aug-2012 (quart) 1.4 GOOD 5.0 $48.00 3 0.95

Hasbro (HAS) 1.44 4.02% late Oct 2012 mid-Sep 2012 (quart) 1.6 GOOD 8.0 $49.00 7 0.73

Intel (INTC) 0.84 3.27% early Aug 2012 early Sep 2012 (quart) 3.2 EXCELLENT 8.0 $35.00 3 0.73

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 2.44 3.52% late Aug 2012 early Sept 2012 (quart) 2.6 GOOD 8.0 $90.00 9 0.77

Kinder Morgan (KMP) 4.80 6.00% late Oct 2012 mid Nov 2012 (quart) 1.5 GOOD 5.0 $85.00 6 0.94

Medtronic (MDT) 1.04 2.64% early Oct 2012 late Oct 2012 (quart) 2.7 GOOD 8.0 $52.00 6 0.76

Microsoft (MSFT) 0.80 2.71% mid Aug 2012 mid Sept 2012 (quart) 4.2 EXCELLENT 12.0 $41.00 6 0.72

Proctor & Gamble (PG) 2.25 3.49% late Oct 2012 mid Nov 2012 (quart) 1.3 GOOD 8.0 $69.00 4 0.94

PP&L (PPL) 1.44 4.98% early Sep 2012 early Oct 2012 (quart) -0.5 VERY POOR 3.0 $34.00 6 0.85

Phillips 66 (PSX) 0.80 2.13% mid-Oct 2012 early Nov 2012 (quart) UR UR UR UR UR UR

Republic Services (RSG) 0.94 3.25% late Sep 2012 mid Oct 2012 (quart) 1.3 GOOD 6.0 $35.00 9 0.83

Superior Industries (SUP) 0.64 3.74% early Oct 2012 late Oct 2012 (quart) 4.2 EXCELLENT 5.0 $21.00 3 0.81

DIVIDEND GROWTH PORTFOLIO -- as of July 31, 2012 Dividend Growth Portfolio Inception Date: January 1, 2012

Company Name First Purchase Avg Cost ($) # of Shares Total Cost ($) Last Close Current Value ($) % of Portfolio Exp. Yrly Div's ($)

Altria (MO) 12/30/2011 29.65 202 5,996.30 35.97 7,265.94 6.8% 331.28

Chevron (CVX) 12/30/2011 106.40 56 5,965.40 109.58 6,136.48 5.8% 201.60

ConocoPhillips (COP) 12/30/2011 72.87 89 6,492.43 54.44 4,845.16 4.5% 234.96

Emerson Electric (EMR) 12/30/2011 46.59 97 4,526.23 47.77 4,633.69 4.3% 155.20

Energy Transfer (ETP) 12/30/2011 45.85 142 6,517.70 45.80 6,503.60 6.1% 508.36

Hasbro (HAS) 12/30/2011 31.89 220 7,022.80 35.82 7,880.40 7.4% 316.80

Intel (INTC) 12/30/2011 24.25 289 7,015.25 25.70 7,427.30 7.0% 242.76

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 12/30/2011 65.08 107 6,970.56 69.22 7,406.54 6.9% 261.08

Kinder Morgan (KMP) 12/30/2011 84.95 65 5,528.75 80.03 5,201.95 4.9% 312.00

Medtronic (MDT) 12/30/2011 38.25 157 6,012.25 39.42 6,188.94 5.8% 163.28

Microsoft (MSFT) 12/30/2011 25.96 308 8,002.68 29.47 9,076.76 8.5% 246.40

Proctor & Gamble (PG) 12/30/2011 66.71 105 7,011.55 64.54 6,776.70 6.4% 236.25

PP&L (PPL) 12/30/2011 29.42 238 7,008.96 28.90 6,878.20 6.4% 342.72

Phillips 66 (PSX) 5/1/2011 Spin Off 44 Spin Off 37.60 1,654.40 1.6% 35.20

Republic Services (RSG) 12/30/2011 27.55 236 6,508.80 28.93 6,827.48 6.4% 221.84

Superior Industries (SUP) 12/30/2011 16.54 423 7,003.42 17.09 7,229.07 6.8% 270.72

Cash 2,363.42 4,746.80 4.4% 4,080.45

Dividend Growth Portfolio 100,000.00 106,679.41 100.0% 3.82%

Benchmark: Dow Jones Select Dividend Index (DVY) 100,000.00 57.33 108,556.82 3.44%****

UR = Under Review

** Upper bound of fair value range noted.

**** The yield an investor would have received if they had held the fund over the last 12 months assuming the most recent NAV.

This portfolio is not a real money portfolio. Data as of July 31, 2012. Cost basis includes commissions. Results include divdends, but no interest received on cash balance.

Page 6 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Hasbro Struggles in the Second Quarter

Toy-maker and dividend growth gem Hasbro (HAS)—$1.44 annual payout; 4% dividend yield—reported stronger than expected earnings. The firm earned $0.33 per share during the second quarter, $0.09 more than what consensus was looking for and flat year-over-year. Revenue fell 12% year-over-year to $812 million, slightly shy of consensus expectations. However, excluding foreign exchange headwinds, revenues fell 7%. Our fair value estimate remains unchanged.

Similar to competitor Mattel (MAT), Hasbro was able to increase its earnings despite lower revenue. Operating profit in the US and Canada segment jumped 6% even though sales tumbled 19%. The firm has previously stated that the revenue mix will be shifted 2-4% more heavily in favor of the back half of the year, so this drop in revenue was anticipated. International revenue did not decrease as heavily, falling just 4% thanks to strong growth in Latin America that was offset by weakness in Europe and Asia. Excluding the impact of currency, aggregate international revenue grew 5% and fell only 1% in Europe. Though foreign exchange headwinds will likely persist, we think exchange rate fluctuations will largely counteract each other in the long-run.

With the shift in the quarterly revenue mix, it’s actually difficult to ascertain the strength or weakness of the results in either segment. Hasbro confirmed that in addition to the shift in the revenue mix, some of the revenue decline can be attributed to tough comparisons from Transformers in 2011, as well as new releases being shifted to the back half of 2012. The firm continues to believe it will post higher revenue and earnings in 2012, ex-currency. We also think that shifting production and shipping to coincide with demand surges should boost operating margins.

Though the US/Canada and international segments posted mixed results, the company’s entertainment and licensing division reported very strong top and bottom line growth. Revenues in the segment grew 59% in the second quarter, to $43.2 million. Since this marginal revenue is almost entirely accretive to earnings, operating profits in the segment grew tremendously (1,239%) to $8.2 million. Hasbro sold the rights to several shows in the US and abroad during the second quarter. Though Battleship…

By RJ Towner

Please see Hasbro Struggles in Second Quarter …On Page 8

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 7

Microsoft (MSFT)—$0.80 annual payout; 2.7% dividend yield— reported stronger than expected fourth quarter earnings. Net of a goodwill impairment charge related to the aQuantive write-down, the firm earned $0.73 per share for its fiscal year 2012 fourth quarter, higher than the $0.62 the Street was expecting and 6% higher than in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue grew 7% in the quarter, which was in-line with consensus expectations. More importantly, the firm continues to be a cash cow, generating north of $5 billion in free cash flow during its fourth quarter and over $22 billion in free cash flow for the year.

Revenue in the firm’s Windows and Windows Live divisions shrank 13% year-over-year, to $4.1 billion, but such a decline was expected given the success of Windows 7 last year (and a lull caused by Windows 8, which will be released in October). Revenue in the company’s Entertainment and Devices division grew 20%, to $1.8 billion. Most of this increase was due to the acquisition of Skype, yet we think this division has tremendous upside potential. Xbox can now be used as a personal entertainment device rather than just a gaming console, and the next iteration will likely include Blu-Ray, making it a full-service next generation entertainment platform.

The company’s Servers and Tools division grew revenues 12.6% in its fourth quarter to $5.1 billion, and management noted strength in SQL and the enterprise services business. In our view, Microsoft’s strength in the enterprise market is far more vital to its long-term success than the PC or tablet market, so we expect the firm to continue to invest in high-margin software and services to fit the needs of enterprise customers.

Revenue in Microsoft’s Business Division, also known as MBD, grew 7% year-over-year, to $6.2 billion. This division includes the Microsoft Office Suite, which is the company’s strongest property, in our view. Excel, Word, and PowerPoint are among the most engrained applications in both education and business. More importantly, a true competitor has yet to emerge. Even Google Docs (GOOG) suffers from limited functionality and fewer features, so we think Microsoft Office programs could become more popular when they are coupled with cloud computing.

With shares of the firm still trading at a significant discount to our fair value estimate, Microsoft remains a very attractive opportunity at current levels. Not only does the firm have upside potential and a hefty margin of safety, but there’s a high likelihood the firm will raise its dividend at a very nice in the years ahead.

Microsoft’s Strong Quarter Overshadowed by Future Catalysts By RJ Towner

Page 8 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

...might not have been the domestic phenomenon many expected it to be, the movie posted solid international box office numbers, so we suspect licensing of Hasbro games and toys will remain strong. During the second quarter, the firm repurchased just shy of $5 million in stock and still has $217.3 million available in its stock buyback program. With a healthy balance sheet of nearly $780 million in cash--as well as robust free cash flow generation--we believe the firm will continue to raise its dividend and return cash to shareholders. The firm is trading at a healthy discount to our fair value and posts a solid score of 7 on the Valuentum Buying Index. With its annual dividend yield of about 4%, we think Hasbro is a very compelling idea at its current price. Even if turmoil in Europe prevents stocks from converging to their true values over the near term, patient investors will be paid to wait in Hasbro.

Hasbro Struggles in the Second Quarter… from page 6

Altria Posts Fantastic Second Quarter Earnings… from page 4

In addition to strong performance from its cigarette brands, the firm’s smokeless tobacco division continues to grow. Altria owns brand leaders Copenhagen and Skoal, and the segment grew revenue 5.4%, to $426 million. Unlike cigarette volume, smokeless tobacco volume grew 7.6% on a year-over-year basis. Due to arguably less prevalent use, smokeless tobacco hasn’t been the same punching bag that cigarettes have been. However, it may eventually encounter the same scrutiny as cigarettes, but we expect the segment to continue to grow at a decent clip in the near-term. Though Altira doesn’t have exposure to higher international growth markets—like Phillip Morris (PM), for example—we think the US cigarette business remains relatively resilient. The company’s ability to pass on cost increases to its customers and continued dedication to returning cash to shareholders remains on display. The cigarette business requires very little incremental investment, so the tremendous amount of free cash flow the firm generates will be used to reward shareholders. We love the firm’s 4.6% annual dividend yield, and we believe the company will continue to grow it at a nice pace going forward.

Drugmaker Merck (MRK)—$1.68 annual payout; 3.7% dividend yield—put up solid second quarter results. The firm’s constant-currency revenue advanced 5% from the same period a year ago, while non-GAAP earnings per share jumped 11% from last year’s quarter. Merck’s pharmaceuticals, animal health, and consumer care segments all contributed to expansion, and the firm witnessed global growth for Januvia (up 36%), Janument (28%), Victrelis, Isentress (up 18%), Gardasil (up 17%), and Zostavax. The company noted that it is on track for 6 major filings in 2012-2013 (including Suvorexant for insomnia and Odanacatib for osteoporosis), indicating that progress within its pipeline remains robust. Its non-GAAP earnings-per-share target for 2012 of $3.75 to $3.85 was reaffirmed.

Though Merck will face patent expiration of blockbuster Singulair in the US in August 2012 and in major European markets in February 2013, we think its pipeline is filled with candidates to replace this revenue stream in coming years. Still, the ride will be bumpy, and we don’t think its current share price offers a sufficient margin of safety to initiate a position at this time. The firm does have a relatively sizable dividend (annual yield over 3.7%), but we think Pfizer (PFE) offers a more attractive total return profile from current levels. Neither firm, however, makes the cut for our Dividend Growth portfolio at this time.

Merck Reports Solid 2Q; Its Pipeline Looks Promising By Valuentum Analysts

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 9

Stocks with High VBI Ratings and Strong Dividend Growth Prospects By Valuentum Analysts

The table below showcases firms in our coverage universe that have high Valuentum Buying Index™ ratings and strong dividend growth prospects. The table represents a list of interesting dividend-paying stocks that are among the most timely investment opportunities based on our stock-selection methodology.

Though our dividend-growth portfolio (see page 5) is near fully-invested, we may swap in firms on this list or firms on our dividend-growth watch list (see page 11) at the right price or if our analyst team determines that a new add has more potential total return opportunity than a current holding.

To access a firm’s dividend report, please click on the link below:

http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20111110

Page 10 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Global restaurant-giant McDonald’s (MCD)—$2.80 annual payout; 3.1% dividend yield—recently reported second quarter results. Not surprisingly, currency fluctuations struck again and contributed to the firm falling short of consensus expectations. During the second quarter, the firm earned $1.32 per share versus a consensus estimate of $1.38, and down 2% year-over-year (up 3% excluding currency fluctuations). Total revenue was flat year-over-year at $6.9 billion, though it was up 5% (excluding the impact of currency) thanks to same-store sales growth of 3.7%. Short-term speculators seem fixated on the earnings “miss,” but our fair value estimate for McDonald’s remains unchanged.

Business in the United States remained strong for McDonald’s, though we note that competition is making greater strides. Same-store sales grew 3.6% during the second quarter, and operating income grew 2%. Burger King (BKH) in particular has improved menu offerings, and Taco Bell (YUM), which tends to focus on the low end and offer a value proposition, posted strong same-store sales growth in the quarter (13.1%). We think the firm’s strong showing can be attributed to its value proposition, as well as continued new menu items like the Spicy Chicken McBites and the Cherry Berry Chiller.

Same-store sales in Europe were surprisingly strong during the second quarter, growing 3.8%. With the region struggling through austerity measures and economic contraction, we suspect McDonald’s value offering is very compelling and think it will continue to perform well even in difficult times. Operating income in the region fell 3% as a result of exchange rate fluctuations, but grew 8% on a constant-currency basis. Management specifically pointed to strength in the UK and Russia, as well as new value offerings in France that drove strong June comps. Currency will likely continue to be a powerful foe going forward.

Although we thought results in Europe were strong, results in Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa were mediocre at best. Same-store sales grew only 0.9%, and operating income decreased 2% (up 1% in constant currencies)…

McDonald's Reports Second Quarter Results By RJ Towner

Please see McDonald’s Reports Second Quarter Results …On Page 15

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 11

Our Dividend Growth Watch List By Valuentum Analysts

Our dividend-growth watch list continues to be filled with potential ideas for your portfolio. We may replace firms held in our portfolio with companies found in the table below should their dividend growth potential (and/or total return potential) become relatively more attractive than portfolio constituents’. We continue to scour our coverage universe for firms to add to our dividend-growth watch list, which we update in every edition of our Dividend Growth Newsletter.

To access the dividend reports of companies on our watch list, please click here.

Page 12 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

By Valuentum Analysts

Healthcare and consumer products giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported second quarter earnings that were about in-line with expectation. The firm posted adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share, a penny shy of expectations and down 2% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue was about $200 million lower than expected, but for a company that did $16.5 billion in revenue in the quarter, we think that difference is fairly immaterial.

When adjusting for currency effects, Johnson & Johnson’s international businesses performed fairly well, and in many respects, outperformed its US counterparts. The US consumer business’ revenue declined 1.9% from the same period a year ago, but internationally, it advanced 2% (net of currency effects). The firm’s pharmaceutical business performed well internationally thanks to the launch of several patent-protected drugs in Europe, increasing 15.5% year-over-year (excluding currency fluctuations). This compares to a decline of 4.5% in its US business. Medical device sales grew 2.9% in the US and advanced 3.8% on a constant currency basis internationally. We expect performance in the medical-device segment to accelerate once its acquisition of Synthes is fully integrated.

Though the firm lowered its full-year earnings-per-share outlook to $5.00-$5.07 from $5.07-$5.17, this updated outlook is mostly due to differences in currencies. Therefore, we feel the update is relatively immaterial to our estimate of the company’s intrinsic valuation. Johnson & Johnson scores a rare 9 on our Valuentum Buying Index, suggesting that the shares look very enticing at current levels. We also think the firm looks extremely attractive as a dividend growth investment, as there is an excellent chance the firm continues to increase its dividend many, many years into the future (and at a nice annual clip).

Chevron Boasts Strong Downstream Performance in 2Q By Valuentum Analysts Dividend Growth portfolio holding Chevron (CVX)—$3.60 annual payout; 3.3% annual yield—reported reduced second-quarter net income, as earnings growth in its downstream business failed to offset weakness in upstream operations. Our fair value estimate remains unchanged.

Global net oil production during the second quarter was 2.62 million barrels per day, down from 2.69 million barrels per day in the same period a year ago as project ramp-ups were offset by field declines (Frade Field in Brazil) and maintenance-related downtime. Though the firm benefited tremendously from improved margins on refined product sales in the quarter, Chevron continues to divest non-core assets in its downstream business—GS Caltex’s power operations in South Korea and several of its fuels-marketing and aviation businesses in the Caribbean.

The firm continues to invest heavily in its capital and exploratory expenditures, with the firm spending $14.2 billion during the first six months of the year, almost all of it for upstream operations. We believe these substantial investments will bear fruit over the long haul, though any immediate return will be tempered by reduced energy prices caused by global economic uncertainty.

All things considered, we’re big fans of Chevron. Relative to peers, the firm is more heavily weighted to oil than natural gas in its operations (natural gas prices have been incredibly weak), has stronger margins (per barrel) in its upstream business, and has a significant positive net cash position (a consideration of our Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ measure). We’re expecting continued strong growth in its dividend for years to come, and the firm remains a holding in the portfolio of our Dividend Growth Newsletter.

Johnson & Johnson Faces Currency Headwinds But Its Stock Remains Undervalued

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 13

History has revealed that the best performing stocks during the previous decades have been those that shelled out ever-increasing cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. In a recent study, S&P 500 stocks that initiated dividends or grew them over time registered roughly a 9.6% annualized return since 1972 (through 2010), while stocks that did not pay out dividends or cut them performed poorly over the same time period.

Such analysis is difficult to ignore, and we believe investors may be well-rewarded in future periods by finding the best dividend-growth stocks out there. As such, we've developed a rigorous dividend investment methodology that uncovers firms that not only have the safest dividends but also ones that are poised to grow them long into the future.

How did we do this? Well, first of all, we scoured our stock universe for firms that have cut their dividends in the past to uncover the major drivers behind the dividend cut. This is what we found out: The major reasons why firms cut their dividend had to do with preserving cash in the midst of a secular or cyclical downturn in demand for their products/services or when faced with excessive leverage (how much debt they held on their respective balance sheets).

The Importance of Forward-Looking Dividend Analysis

Armed with this knowledge, we developed the forward-looking Valuentum Dividend Cushion™, which is a ratio that gauges the safety of a dividend over time.

Most dividend analysis that we’ve seen out there is backward-looking – meaning it rests on what the firm has done in the past. Although analyzing historical trends is important, we think assessing what may happen in the future is even more important. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat List, or a grouping of firms that have raised their dividends for the past 25 years, is a great example of why backward-looking analysis can be painful.

In fact, one only has to look over the past few years to see the removal of such big names from the Dividend Aristocrat List like General Electric (GE) and Pfizer (PFE) to understand that backward-looking analysis is hardly worth your time. After all, you’re investing for the future, so the future is all you should care about. We want to find the stocks that will increase their dividends for 25 years into the future, not use a rear-view mirror to build a portfolio of names that may already be past their prime dividend growth years.

About Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ By Valuentum Analysts

Please see About Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion…on next page

Page 14 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

The Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ measures just how safe the dividend is in the future. It considers the firm’s net cash on its balance sheet and adds that to its forecasted future free cash flows and divides that sum by the firm’s future expected dividend payments. At its core, it tells investors whether the firm has enough cash to pay out its dividends in the future, while considering its debt load. If a firm has a Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ above 1, it can cover its dividend, but if it falls below 1, trouble may be on the horizon.

In fact, the Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ would have caught every dividend cut made by a non-financial, operating firm that we have in our database, except for one (Marriott). But interestingly, our Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ indicated that Marriott should have never cut its dividend, and sure enough, two years after the firm did so, it raised it to levels that were higher than before the cut.

Here are the results of our study (a Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ below 1 indicates the dividend may be in trouble). The Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ score shown in the table below is the measure in the year before the firm cut its dividend, so it represents a predictive indicator:

At the very least, using the Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ can help you avoid firms that are at risk of cutting their dividends in the future. And we are the only firm out there that does this type of in-depth analysis for you. Plus, we not only provide the actual Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ number for our subscribers in our dividend reports and newsletter, but we also scale the safety of a firm’s dividend in simple terms: Excellent, Good, Poor, Very Poor.

About Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion… from previous page

Please see About Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion…on next page

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 15

But What about the Growth of a Firm’s Dividend?

It takes time to accumulate wealth through dividends, so dividend growth investing requires a long-term perspective. As a result, we assess the long-term future growth potential of a firm’s dividend. And we don’t just take management’s word for what they will do with their dividend. Instead, we dive into the financial statements and make our own forecasts of the future to see if what they’re saying is actually achievable. We use our Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ as a way to judge the capacity for management to raise its dividend – how much cushion it has – and we couple that assessment with the firm’s dividend track record, or management’s willingness to raise the dividend.

In many cases, we may have a different view of a firm’s dividend growth potential than what may be widely held in the investment community. That’s fine by us, as our dividend-growth investment horizon is often longer than others. We want to make sure that the firm has the capacity and willingness to increase the dividend years into the future and will not be weighed down by an excessive debt load or cyclical or secular problems in fundamental demand for their products/services.

Plus, we don’t use fancy language for what we think of its future growth. We scale our assessment in an easily-interpreted fashion: Excellent, Good, Poor, Very Poor.

What are the Dividend Ideas We Seek to Deliver to You in Our Newsletter?

First of all, we’re looking for stocks with dividend yields that are greater than the average of the S&P 500, or about 2% (but preferably north of 3%). This excludes many names, but we think such a cutoff eliminates firms whose dividend streams aren’t yet large enough to generate sufficient income. Second, we’re looking for firms that register an 'EXCELLENT' or 'GOOD' rating on our scale for both safety and future potential growth. And third, we’re looking for firms that have a relatively lower risk of capital loss, as measured by our estimate of the company’s fair value.

About Our Valuentum Dividend Cushion… from previous page

Same-store sales in China grew 2.2%, and management pointed to weakness in Japan as a negative contribution. We think the slowing growth in China, while still impressive, is largely a negative for discretionary spending items like McDonald’s. Yum Brands also reported less-than-stellar results in China, so we think it is largely a regional issue. If macroeconomic growth in China remains challenged, we suspect Yum and McDonald’s will struggle to grow margins without sacrificing top-line growth. Overall, though results were mixed, we do not think they were that disappointing at all. Same-store sales growth held up relatively well, and the firm is investing billions of dollars in new restaurants and upgrades worldwide. CEO Don Thompson is already receiving some heat for the “lackluster” quarter, even though he’s only been on the job for a few weeks. As far as we’re concerned, it’s still far too early to judge his performance. He may not have the decades upon decades of experience that former CEO Jim Skinner had, but he’s still been with the company for over twenty years and was an instrumental part of the company’s turnaround in the mid-2000’s. We aren’t ready to panic yet and throw in the towel regarding McDonald’s, but the continued negativity could put downward pressure on the stock. We think the stock becomes very intriguing under $76 per share (the low end of our fair value range) and a very compelling dividend growth investment at such levels. We’re on the sidelines for now.

McDonalds Reports Second Quarter Results… from Page 10

Page 16 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Yields to Avoid By Valuentum Analysts

As many investors know, firms can often become cheap for good reasons. That is, they are not trading cheaply because of Mr. Market’s irrational behavior, but instead are trading at depressed levels due to deteriorating underlying fundamental characteristics that actually justify its current share price, even if traditional valuation techniques (read multiple analysis) suggest the firm’s shares are inexpensive. On a similar note, firms that boast high dividend yields may do so because the market has little confidence in the sustainability of its dividend and believes a cut may be just around the corner.

Though we fall short of saying the following list of firms will slash their respective dividends anytime soon, our dividend-cut predictive indicator—the Valuentum Dividend Cushion™--indicates that the firms below are at significant risk for a dividend cut in coming years. We think the dividend-growth investor should steer clear of the following firms’ shares:

To access the full dividend reports on the companies below, please click the following link:

http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20111110

Name Symbol Industry Dividend Yield Div Safety Div CushionLennar LEN Homebuilders 0.6% VERY POOR -23.4KB Home KBH Homebuilders 2.4% VERY POOR -13.4Royal Caribbean RCL Leisure 1.5% VERY POOR -11.7Supervalu SVU Food Retailers 8.1% VERY POOR -10.4Hess HES Refiners 0.9% VERY POOR -9.9Cablevision CVC Media - CATV 4.1% VERY POOR -9.1Ryder System R Rental and Leasing 2.4% VERY POOR -8.4Mueller Water MWA Electrical Equipment 1.9% VERY POOR -5.6Sealed Air SEE Containers & Packaging 3.4% VERY POOR -5.2Chesapeake CHK Independent Oil & Gas 2.2% VERY POOR -4.6Peabody Energy BTU Industrial Minerals 1.4% VERY POOR -4.2CONSOL Energy CNX Industrial Minerals 1.8% VERY POOR -3.5Roundy's Inc RNDY Food Retailers 8.9% VERY POOR -3.0Frontier Comm FTR Telecom Services - diversified 12.4% VERY POOR -2.5Ashland ASH Chemicals - broad 1.1% VERY POOR -2.3Ecolab ECL Chemicals - broad 1.3% VERY POOR -2.2Rock-Tenn RKT Paper Products 1.5% VERY POOR -2.1Time Warner Cable TWC Media - CATV 2.7% VERY POOR -2.0

Supervalu (SVU) recently slashed its dividend. The Valuentum Dividend Cushion™ highlighted it as a ‘Yield to Avoid’ months in advance.

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 17

Yields to Consider By Valuentum Analysts

Provided below is a list of the top 100 firms with the best dividend growth profiles within our coverage universe (as of the beginning of this quarter, July 1). The list below is an excerpt (page) from our quarterly Dividend100 publication. Financial advisor clients receive this publication as part of their membership. For more information on our Dividend100 publication, please contact us at [email protected].

Page 18 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Please select the following link to view the full 16-page report: http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20110609

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 19

Please select the following link to view the full 16-page report: http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20110609

Page 20 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Please select the following link to view the full 16-page report: http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20110609

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 21

Please select the following link to view the full 16-page report: http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20110609

Page 22 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] "attractive"? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: "value" and "growth,"...We view that as fuzzy thinking...Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term "value investing" is redundant.

-- Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1993

At Valuentum, we take Buffett's thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from a complete understanding of all investing disciplines in order to identify the most attractive stocks at any given time. Valuentum therefore analyzes each stock across a wide spectrum of philosophies, from deep value through momentum investing. We think companies that are attractive from a number of investment perspectives--whether it be growth, value, income, momentum, etc.--have the greatest probability of capital appreciation and relative outperformance. The more deep-pocketed institutional investors that are interested in the stock for reasons based on their respective investment mandates, the more likely it will be bought and the more likely the price will move higher to reflect its true intrinsic value (buying a stock pushes its price higher). On the other hand, we think the worst stocks will be shunned by most investment disciplines and display expensive valuations, poor technicals and deteriorating momentum indicators.

As such, the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) combines rigorous financial and valuation analysis with an evaluation of a firm's technicals and momentum indicators to derive a score between 1 and 10 for each company (10=best). The VBI places considerable emphasis on a firm's DCF valuation, its relative valuation versus peers (both forward PE and PEG ratios), as well as its technicals in order to help investors pick the best entry and exit points on the most interesting stocks. We believe our methodology helps identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy, helping to avoid value traps and lagging performance due to the opportunity cost of holding a stock with great potential but at an inopportune time.

A Rigorous, Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Assessment

Our methodology starts with in-depth financial statement analysis, where we derive our ValueCreation, ValueRisk, and ValueTrend ratings, which together provide a quantitative assessment of the strength of a firm's competitive advantages. After evaluating historical trends, we then make full annual forecasts for each item on a company's income statement and balance sheet to arrive at a firm's future free cash flows. We derive a company-specific cost of equity (using a fundamental beta based on the expected uncertainty of key valuation drivers) and a cost of debt (considering the firm's capital structure and synthetic credit spread over the risk-free rate), culminating in our estimate of a company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC). We don't use a market price-derived beta, as we embrace market volatility, which provides investors with opportunities to buy attractive stocks at bargain-basement levels.

We assess each company within our complete three-stage free cash flow to the firm (enterprise cash flow) valuation model, which generates an estimate of a company's equity value per share based on its discounted future free cash flows and the company's net balance sheet impact, including other adjustments to equity value (namely pension and OPEB adjustments). Our ValueRisk rating, which considers the underlying uncertainty of the capacity of the firm to continue to generate value for shareholders, sets the margin of safety bands around this fair value estimate. For firms that are trading below the lower bound of our margin of safety band, we consider these companies undervalued based on our DCF process. For firms that are trading above the higher bound of our margin of safety band, we consider these companies overvalued based on our DCF process.

Our Methodology – The Valuentum Buying Index By Valuentum Analysts

Our Methodology – The Valuentum Buying Index continued on next page

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 23

Our Methodology – The Valuentum Buying Index (cont.) A Forward-Looking Relative Value Assessment

Our discounted cash-flow process allows us to arrive at an absolute view of the firm's intrinsic value. However, we also understand the critical importance of assessing firms on a relative value basis, versus both their industry and peers. Many institutional money-managers--those that drive stock prices—pay attention to a company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio and price-earning-to-growth (PEG) ratio in making buy/sell decisions. With this in mind, we have included a forward-looking relative value assessment in our process to further augment our rigorous discounted cash-flow process. If a company is undervalued on both a price-to-earnings ratio and a price-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio versus industry peers, we would consider the firm to be attractive from a relative value standpoint.

Avoiding Value Traps and Opportunity Cost

Once we have estimated a firm's intrinsic value on the basis of our discounted cash-flow process, determined if it is undervalued according to its firm-specific margin of safety bands, and assessed whether it has relative value versus industry peers, we then evaluate the company's technical and momentum indicators to pin-point the best entry and exit points on the stock (but only after it meets our stringent valuation criteria). Rigorous valuation analysis and technical analysis are not mutually exclusive, and we believe both can be used together to bolster returns. An evaluation of a stock's moving averages, relative strength, upside-downside volume, and money flow index are but a few considerations we look at with respect to our technical and momentum assessment of a company's stock. We embrace the idea that the future is inherently unpredictable and that not all fundamental factors can be included in a valuation model. By extension, we use technical and momentum analysis to help safeguard us against value traps, falling knives, and the opportunity cost of holding an undervalued equity for years before it converges to fair value. Other research firms do not consider opportunity cost as a legitimate expense for investors.

Putting It All Together - the Valuentum Buying Index

Let's follow the red line on the flow chart on the next page to see how a firm can score a 10, the best mark on our index (a "Top Pick"). First, the company would need to be 'UNDERVALUED' on a DCF basis and 'ATTRACTIVE' on a relative value basis. The stock would also have to be exhibiting 'BULLISH' technicals. The firm would need a ValueCreation rating of 'GOOD' or 'EXCELLENT', exhibit 'HIGH' or 'AGGRESSIVE' growth prospects, and generate at least a 'MEDIUM' or 'NEUTRAL' assessment for cash flow generation, financial leverage, and relative price strength.

This is a tall order for any company, but we're looking to deliver the very best of ideas to our clients and subscribers. Firms that don't make the cut for a 10 are ranked accordingly, with the least attractive stocks garnering a score of 1 ("We'd sell"). Most of our coverage universe falls between 3 and 7, but at any given time there could be large number of companies garnering either high or low scores, especially at market lows or tops, respectively.

Page 24 Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter

Our Methodology – The Valuentum Buying Index (cont.)

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter Page 25

Valuentum Dividend Growth Newsletter: Volume 1, Issue 8

Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter is published monthly. To receive this newletter on a monthly basis, please subscribe to Valuentum by visiting our website at http://www.valuentum.com. Or contact us at [email protected].

© Valuentum Securities, Inc. All rights Reserved. The information contained in this report is not

represented or warranted to be accurate, correct, complete, or timely. This report is for informational

and educational purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

The securities mentioned herein may not be suitable for all types of investors. The information

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This report is not intended as a recommendation of the securities highlighted or any particular

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whether such an investment is suitable for their particular circumstances, perform their own due-

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Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the report and are

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have long, short or derivative positions in the stock or stocks mentioned herein.

No warranty is made regarding the accuracy of any data or any opinions. The portfolio in the

Valuentum Dividend Growth Newsletter is hypothetical and does not represent real money.

Performance assessment of the Valuentum Buying Index™ is currently ongoing, and we intend to

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