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Weekly Barometer 25 janvier 2012
Innovation Certificate – A Changing World
January 2018
ATONRÂ PARTNERS SA 12, Rue Pierre Fatio – 1204 GENEVA – SWITZERLAND - Tel: + 41 22 310 15 01 http://www.atonra.ch
Innovation Certificate
➢ Innovation is becoming core in many industries, allowing companies not only to reduce costs
thanks to automation (artificial intelligence, robotics),
✓ but also to come up with new products, enjoy higher pricing power (smart products) and to
develop new business models (sharing economy…)
➢ This digital evolution has the potential to reshape markets faster than perhaps any force in
history, with the spotlight being currently on the Internet of Things, virtual / augmented reality,
artificial intelligence, robotics, medical devices…
➢ The Innovation certificate gathers our top ideas among innovative technologies that are impacting
current businesses and transforming the economy
➢ The investment universe is naturally composed of Tech, Biotech and MedTech players, it can also
include more traditional companies whose business model shifts thanks to innovation
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Investment Case
Innovation Certificate details
✓ Issuing bank: Natixis, Calculation agent: Natixis SA
✓ ISIN: XS0884325415
✓ Currency: USD
✓ Fees: 1.65% management fee + 15% performance fee, high water mark
✓ Bloomberg ticker: NXSRATRA
Innovation Certificate 3
New mobile apps
Robotics
AR & VRSmart consumer goods
Artificial Intelligence
3D printing
Medtech
Fintech
Smart cars
Innovation Certificate
➢ We have reached the 3rd step of technological evolution:
4
The Final Stage Of Technology Evolution
TOOL MACHINE AUTOMATION
Machines
taking over
machines
Removal of
human contral
Motion tools
Industrial
revolution
Prehistoric
man
1st Stage 2nd Stage 3rd Stage
Innovation Certificate
➢ The rate of technology adoption has materially accelerated over the years
✓ as costs have been going down
✓ and as technology has become more user (and developer) friendly
➢ Consumers now have an open mind when it comes to technology, with many of them being even
eager to try new technologies
5
Technology Adoption Has Accelerated Over The Years
Source: Michael Felton, The New York Times
CONSUMPTION SPREADS FASTER TODAY
Innovation Certificate
➢ Innovation is not exclusive to consumer electronics and healthcare industries anymore
➢ In traditional industries, innovation emerges as a way to confront rising competition from low-cost
countries and products and to drive growth
➢ The cloud and IoT are major breakthroughs
6
Processing power & IoT
Cloud
GlobalizationData storage and data processing
power accessible to all
Governments throughout the world have identified innovation as a major source
of economic growth
Pressure to innovate due to
competition
Innovation Is Becoming Core In ALL Industries And For Governments
Innovation Certificate
➢ The self-lacing technology from the 1989 “Back To The
Future 2” movie is now real
➢ Smart apparel is on its way
➢ As are smart home appliances
7
Technology Is becoming Ubiquitous
Consumer products companies will get a massive revenue boost thanks to the higher
selling prices of smart products
Innovation Certificate
Innovation Drives Long-Term Economic Growth
8
➢ There are 3 main types of innovations:
✓ Process (cost saving opportunity, e.g. robots)
✓ Product (revenue opportunity, e.g. iPhone)
✓ Business model (e.g. sharing economy)
Innovation
Productivity growthTransformation of
economic structures
Long-run economic growth
Health
improvement
New
communication
technologies
Innovation Certificate
➢ As the cost and complexity of technology keep going down, new players are coming from out of
nowhere in many industries
✓ contributing to the global innovation effort as they come up with original ideas, products and
business models
✓ … and putting continued pressure on the cost and complexity of technology
➢ After the GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon), the newcomers to the Tech world are the
NATU (Netflix, Airbnb, Tesla and Uber)
9
Who’s Next?
New Players Keep Popping Up
2008
Founded in…
200920031997 1998 20041997 1998 2003 2004 2008 2009
Innovation Certificate
➢ In recent years, R&D spending has been growing at a 5% pace, well above global GDP
growth around 3%
✓ suggesting that many innovative products are about to hit the market soon
➢ Unsurprisingly, artificial intelligence, robotics, data analysis and new medical technologies rank
high in terms of R&D priorities
10
R&D Investments Are Stronger Than Ever
Rank R&D Spending
2017 2016 Company 2017 US$ bnChange from
2016% of Revenue Headquarters Industry
1 1 Amazon.com 16.1 28.3% 11.8% United States Internet and Direct Marketing Retail
2 3 Alphabet 13.9 13.6% 15.5% United States Internet Software and Services
3 4 Intel Corporation 12.7 5.0% 21.5% United States Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
4 6 Samsung Electronics 12.7 6.4% 7.6% South Korea Technology Hardware, Storage and Peripherals
5 2 Volkswagen 12.1 -2.9% 5.3% Germany Automobiles
6 5 Microsoft Corporation 12.0 -0.5% 14.1% United States Software
7 9 Roche 11.4 20.4% 21.9% Switzerland Pharmaceuticals
8 15 Merck & Co 10.1 51.0% 25.4% United States Pharmaceuticals
9 11 Apple 10.0 24.5% 4.7% United States Technology Hardware, Storage and Peripherals
10 7 Novartis 9.6 1.1% 19.4% Switzerland Pharmaceuticals
11 8 Toyota Motor 9.3 -1.7% 3.8% Japan Automobiles
12 10 Johnson & Johnson 9.1 0.5% 12.7% United States Pharmaceuticals
13 13 General Motors Company 8.1 8.0% 4.9% United States Automobiles
14 12 Pfizer 7.9 2.4% 14.9% United States Pharmaceuticals
15 16 Ford Motor Company 7.3 9.0% 4.8% United States Automobiles
16 17 Daimler 6.9 8.7% 4.2% Germany Automobiles
17 22 Oracle Corporation 6.8 17.8% 18.1% United States Software
18 18 Cisco Systems 6.3 1.4% 12.8% United States Communications Equipment
19 21 Honda Motor 6.2 5.3% 4.9% Japan Automobiles
20 27 Facebook 5.9 22.9% 21.4% United States Internet Software and Services
TOP 20 Total $194.5 11.1% 12.5%
Source: www.strategyand.pwc.com/innovation100, AtonRâ Partners
Innovation Certificate
➢ McKinsey Global Institute estimates the positive economic impact of technologies on global GDP ($80
trillion) in a range of 17%- 41% by 2025
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Reducing by 50%the number of years for major
economies to double in size
by 2035
could double economic growth
over the next 20 years in 12
developed economies
(Accenture)
Artificial Intelligence
A Huge Potential Ahead Of Us
Size in 2025, $tn
Innovation Certificate
➢ The IoT will soon be at the crossroads of basically everything and will spark the advent of a smart,
connected world
✓ allowing the remote monitoring of devices
✓ feeding Big Data and AI systems
➢ In return, AI systems will make objects smarter
12
What’s Hot Right Now? The Internet of Things (I)
Innovation Certificate
➢ Starting as a simple tracking solution, the IoT now allows to
extract and record a variety of data (speed, temperature,
pressure, humidity…) from an unlimited number of items
✓ from consumer and industrial products
✓ to basic materials, food and drugs
➢ The IoT will soon power smart homes, with digital assistants
(Alexa) making the link between humans and machines
➢ Smart factories will be another major field of application
13
What’s Hot Right Now? The Internet of Things (II)
Innovation Certificate
➢ Connecting every single object to the Internet
14
80bnObjects will be connected to the
internet in 2020 vs 15bn today
Source: Idate Consulting
EDUCATION
HEALTHCAREPROTECTION
MOBILE
DEVICES
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
What’s Hot Right Now? The Internet of Things (III)
Innovation Certificate
➢ Both Facebook and Apple are reportedly working on AR glasses and
cameras
➢ The upcoming iPhone 8 is believed to be Apple’s first foray in AR,
with a camera expected to allow depth sensing, picture manipulation
and virtual effects on images
➢ Wide number of AR applications ranging from gaming to driving or shopping:
➢ AR needs tech content, i.e. semiconductors for improved processing power, connectivity, power
management and higher resolution displays
✓ and media content (video games, rich maps…)
15
What’s Hot Right Now? Augmented Reality
Innovation Certificate
➢ The auto industry is becoming the next battleground of
tech giants, as illustrated by the recent acquisition of
Mobileye by Intel
➢ The autonomous driving market is expected to reach $50-
100bn in the medium term
✓ assuming tens of millions of cars come out of the
factories each year equipped with such
technologies
✓ and an ASP around $1,000
➢ Many technologies are vying for the car of the future:
16
What’s Hot Right Now? Smart Cars
✓ from the Intel Xeon CPU - Mobileye vision
sensors combo
✓ to Google’s LIDAR sensors and NXP’s BlueBox
✓ and to graphics cards for the computing power
Innovation Certificate 17
Artificial
Intelligence
VR / AR
FinTech
3D / 4D
Printing
Internet of Things
Robots
How To Play Innovation? (I)
Innovation Certificate 18
New internet
models
Health devices New materials
Cyber security
Smart cars Quantum
computing
How To Play Innovation? (II)
DISCLAIMER
This report has been produced by the organizational unit responsible for investment research (Research
unit) of AtonRâ Partners and sent to you by the company sales representatives.
As an internationally active company, AtonRâ Partners SA may be subject to a number of provisions in
drawing up and distributing its investment research documents. These regulations include the Directives
on the Independence of Financial Research issued by the Swiss Bankers Association.
Although AtonRâ Partners SA believes that the information provided in this document is based onreliable sources, it cannot assume responsibility for the quality, correctness, timeliness or completenessof the information contained in this report.
The information contained in these publications is exclusively intended for a client base consisting ofprofessionals or qualified investors. It is sent to you by way of information and cannot be divulged to athird party without the prior consent of AtonRâ Partners.
While all reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the information contained is not untrue ormisleading at the time of publication, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and itshould not be relied upon as such.
Past performance is not indicative or a guarantee of future results. Investment losses may occur, andinvestors could lose some or all of their investment.
Any indices cited herein are provided only as examples of general market performance and no index isdirectly comparable to the past or future performance of the Certificate.
It should not be assumed that the Certificate will invest in any specific securities that comprise any index,nor should it be understood to mean that there is a correlation between the Certificate’s returns and anyindex returns.
Any material provided to you is intended only for discussion purposes and is not intended as an offer orsolicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security and should not be relied upon by you inevaluating the merits of investing in any securities.
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