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Initial Market Price Bulletin for the month of April 2013 (Reported in May 2013)

HIGHLIGHTS: Average wheat grain retail price in the main cities of the country was decreasing during July 2011- July 2012. However, it was

increasing from August 2012 through January 2013. On the international market, a decreasing trend of wheat price was continuously observed from October 2011 to May 2012, but has been increasing from June 2012 to March 2013 with a sharp decrease in April 2013. A sharp increased price of wheat grain in international markets (June-August 2012) was slightly transmitted to main city markets of Afghanistan during September 2012. The current wheat prices are significantly higher by 15.7% and 16% in comparison to the same time last year (April 2012) and 2 – year ago (April 2011), respectively.

Wheat flour: average price was also decreased during July 2011 - May 2012, but was increasing in the months of June 2012 – March 2013 with slight decrease in April 2013 in the main urban cities of Afghanistan. The current wheat flour average prices are significantly higher by 33.5% in comparison with the same month last year and higher by 18.2% compared to 5 years average price of April months.

Rice which is considered as 2nd

main staple food in Afghanistan. The current average price of Rice (Low Quality) is significantly higher by 39% compared to the same month last year (April 2012) and 41% higher compared to the same time of last 5 years average. The current price of high quality rice is also 26% higher compared to same month last year (April 2013) and 5 years average of April months.

Terms of Trade (ToT):

Casual Labor and Wheat (ToT): The Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual Labor and wheat is a proxy indicator or the purchasing capacity of

households relying on casual labor as main income, and purchase of wheat in the market. This ToT reveal how many Kilograms of wheat can be purchased with one day of casual labor wage, but do not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.

Wage labor-Wheat ToT average for the reporting month was 15.6 Kgs. On average this ToT slightly improved (0.6 %) from March – April 2013. The improvement was based on slight increase in wage labour and slight decrease in wheat price.

In comparison to same month one year ago (April 2012), this ToT deteriorated by 7.3 %.

On the 2 years comparison (April 2011), this ToT slightly deteriorated by 2.1 %.

Compared to the 5 years average of the same month (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), this ToT improved by 14%.

Casual Labor and Wheat Flour (ToT): The Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual Labor and Wheat Flour is a proxy indicator or the purchasing capacity of households relying on casual labor as main income, and purchase of Wheat Flour in the market. This ToT reveal how many Kilograms of Wheat Flour can be purchased with one day of casual labor wage, but do not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.

Wage labor-Wheat Flour ToT average for the reporting month was 11.2 Kgs of wheat flour. The average of this ToT was slightly improved by 2.6 % from March – April 2013. Main reason for improvement was increased labor wage and slight decrease in wheat flour price.

Compared to same month one year ago (April 2012), this ToT was significantly deteriorated by 22.2 %.

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On the 2 years comparison (April 2011), on average this ToT was slightly deteriorated by 1 %.

Compared to the 5 years average of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the average of this ToT improved by 3%.

Sheep and Wheat (ToT): The Terms of Trade between a one year old female sheep and Wheat is a proxy for the purchasing capacity of those households that are mainly reliant on income from livestock (pastoralists). It says how many kilograms of Wheat can be obtained when selling a one year old female sheep.

Sheep-Wheat ToT for the reporting month was 285 Kgs of wheat against one year live female sheep. The average of this ToT was slightly deteriorated by 1.5% from March – April 2013. Main reason for deterioration was decreased Sheep price.

Compared to same month one year ago (April 2012), this ToT deteriorated by 4.8 %.

On the 2-year comparison (April 2011), this ToT was deteriorated by 5.2 %.

Compared to 5 years average of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), this ToT improved by 8%.

Sheep and Wheat Flour (ToT): The Terms of Trade between a one year old female sheep and Wheat Flour is a proxy for the purchasing capacity of those households that are mainly reliant on income from livestock (pastoralists). It says how many kilograms of Wheat Flour can be obtained when selling a one year old female sheep.

Sheep-Wheat Flour ToT for the reporting month was 211 Kgs of wheat flour against one year live female sheep. The average of this ToT was slightly improved by 0.7%. Main reason for improvement was decreased Wheat flour price.

Compared to same month one year ago (April 2012), ToT was significantly deteriorated by 18.3 %.

On the 2-year comparison (April 2011), this ToT was deteriorated by 3.9 %.

Compared to 5 years average of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), this ToT was deteriorated by 1.2 %. Retail Price of Wheat Grain in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of wheat in the main urban markets was 22 Afs/Kg. Compared to the past month (March 2013) the

average price was slightly decreased by 0.7 %. The highest decrease occurred only in Nili (7.8 %). The variation in other main cities was normal (-1.3 to 3.8 %).

Compared to the same month one year ago (April 2012) the average price significantly increased by 15.7%. The highest increase occurred in Jalalabad (23.4 %), Nili (22.9 %), Kabul (22.2 %), Faizabad (18.9 %), Kandahar (15 %) and Hirat (10.7 %). The variation in Mazar and Maimana main cities was normal (4.2% to 5.6%).

On the two-year comparison (April 2011), the average price was higher by 16 %.

Compared to 5 years average price of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the price slightly increased by 5.1 %. The highest increase occurred in Kandahar (14.5 %), Nili (13.9 %) and Jalalabad (10.4 %). The variation in other main cities was normal (-7.9% to 6.3%).

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Retail Price of Wheat Flour in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of wheat flour in main urban markets was 30.4 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (April 2013), which

shows 2.7% decrease compared to the past month (March 2013). The highest decrease occurred in Kabul (8.3 %) and Nili (6.8 %). The variation in other main cities was normal (-3.2 to 2.2 %).

Compared to the same month one year ago (April 2012), the average price was significantly increased by 33.5 %. The highest increase was noticed in Maimana (48 %), Mazar (47.4 %), Hirat (40 %), Faizabad (36.2 %), Jalalabad (33.6 %), Kabul (29.8 %), Nili (24.2 %) and Kandahar (14.6 %). Main reason for the increase was increased global Wheat price and depreciation of Afghani currency against US dollar.

Compared to the same month 2-year ago (April 2011), the average price of Wheat Flour increased by 15%.

Compared to 5 years average price of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the current average price increased by 18.2%. The highest increase occurred in Hirat (30.2 %), Nili (26.7 %), Maimana (24.8 %), Mazar (22.1 %), Kabul (19.2 %) and Faizabad (15.7 %). The variation in Kandahar and Jalalabad was normal (-3.1% to 7.2%).

Retail Price of Rice (High Quality) in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of Rice (High Quality) was 78.8 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (April 2013); the current price was

slightly decreased by 1%.

Compared to the same month one year ago (April 2012), the average price significantly increased by 26%. Main reason for the increase was increased Rice price in neighbouring countries and depreciation of Afghani currency against US dollar.

Compared to the same month 2 – year ago (April 2011), the average price significantly increased by 38%.

Compared to the 5 years average of the some months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012), the average price increased by 26%. Retail Price of Rice (Low Quality) in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of Rice (Low

Quality) was 48.1 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (April 2013); which shows slight decrease by 3%.

Compared to same month one year ago (April 2012), the average price was significantly increased by 39%. Main reason for the increase was increased rice price in neighboring markets and depreciation of Afghani currency against US dollar.

Compared to same month one 2 - year ago (April 2011), the average price was significantly increased by 50%.

Compared to the 5 years average price of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the average price increased by 41%.

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Retail Price of Cooking Oil in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of Cooking Oil was 80.7 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (April 2013); which shows slight decrease by

1% compare to the previous month (March 2013).

Compared to the same month one year ago (April 2012), the average price remained stable (2% decreased). The variation in other main cities was normal (-9% to 4%)

Compared to the same month 2 - year ago (April 2011), the average price was remained stable (1% decrease). Compared to the 5 years average of the same months (April 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012), the average price increased by

10%. Market Watch:

Source: WFP/VAM market data from Afghanistan main cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar, Jalalabad, Faizabad, Hirat, Maimana and Nili) Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) – World Food Programme (WFP), Afghanistan