Infotrak Harris CountyTrak Poll

June 2012

Prepared

By Infotrak Research & Consulting

P.O Box 23081,00100 GPO Nairobi

Manyani East Rd , Lavington

www.infotrakresesarch.com

Methodology

The poll was sponsored and conducted by Infotrak Research & Consulting between 7th June and 15th June, 2012

A sample of 11,616 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of

19,533,700 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 1 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in all 47 counties and the 290 proposed constituencies

Using the 2009 Kenya Population & Housing Census as the sample frame, the sample was

designed using Population Proportionate to Size (PPS) and mainly entailed; • Use of stratification, random and systematic sampling in drawing regions to be covered • Ensuring further distribution by area, age and gender • Using the district as the key administrative boundary • Ensured that every person in the sampled area had a known chance of being selected

Fieldwork was using face to face interviews at the household level • 25% of the interviews were back checked for quality control purposes and data entered twice for

validation purposes

• Respondent selection was done through random and systematic sampling

Data processing & analysis was carried using CS-Pro and SPSS 17.0

The questions asked of respondents are highlighted for each graphic presentation

Margin of Error explained

Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only up to a certain point.

A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent.

By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-1.8 percent for a sample size of 4000.

This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size.

What is imperative is to ensure that the sample is representative of the universe you wish to cover. This is why in a continent the size of USA, most sample sizes range between 1000 -3000 covering the entire population. And the results are more or less accurate

A 95 percent level of confidence is the acceptable standard for social surveys.

Margin of Error Illustration

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9.8

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Sample size

Margin of Error

Va

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Population distribution per county (18+ yrs.)

County Population Nairobi City 2,042,769

Nyandarua 299,540

Nyeri 417,876

Kirinyanga 325,398

Muranga 530,173

Kiambu 975,050

Mombasa 581,047

Kwale 300,040

Kilifi 515,212

Tana River 103,382

Lamu 52,713

Taita Taveta 159,158

Marsabit 132,716

Isiolo 69,998

Meru 614,717

Tharaka Nithi 206,961

Embu 290,404

Kitui 462,095

Machakos 593,380

Makueni 429,469

Garissa 275,269

Wajir 265,543

Mandera 388,346

Siaya 401,444

County Population

Kisumu 477,939

Homabay 428,714

Migori 397,372

Kisii 449,501

Nyamira 393,010

Turkana 386,556

West Pokot 209,296

Trans Nzoia 504,269

Uasin Gishu 466,203

Keiyo Marakwet 171,639

Nandi 363,934

Baringo 116,224

Samburu 95,432

Laikipia 205,933

Nakuru 833,716

Narok 369,318

Kajiado 332,809

Kericho 332,716

Bomet 407,437

Kakamega County 602,786

Vihiga County 321,288

Bungoma County 674,755

Busia County 560,153

Total 19,533,700

Sample Distribution

County Percentage Sample County Percentage Sample Mombasa 3% 336 Samburu 1% 102

Kwale 2% 176 Trans Nzoia 3% 306 Kilifi 2% 228 Uasin Gishu 2% 228

Tana River 1% 90 Keiyo Marakwet 1% 115

Lamu 1% 59 Nandi 1% 145 Taita Taveta 2% 190 Baringo 2% 189

Garissa 2% 190 Laikipia 1% 127 Wajir 2% 229 Nakuru 4% 490

Mandera 1% 174 Narok 2% 184 Marsabit 1% 110 Kajiado 1% 146 Isiolo 1% 73 Kericho 2% 231

Meru 3% 391 Bomet 2% 225

Tharaka Nithi 1% 120 Kakamega County 3% 361

Embu 2% 206 Vihiga County 2% 196

Kitui 2% 275 Bungoma County 2% 289

Machakos 3% 332 Busia County 3% 300 Makueni 2% 249 Siaya 2% 235

Nyandarua 2% 179 Kisumu 2% 275 Nyeri 2% 274 Homabay 2% 268

Kirinyanga 2% 195 Migori 2% 254 Muranga 3% 328 Kisii 2% 284 Kiambu 5% 560 Nyamira 2% 231

Turkana 2% 250 Nairobi City 9% 1,103

West Pokot 1% 116 Total 100% 11,616

The Survey Findings

Most pressing issues

……

The most pressing issues facing Kenyans

0.6%

1.2%

1.5%

1.6%

2.6%

3.3%

3.6%

4.0%

4.7%

5.5%

6.4%

7.8%

8.5%

10.1%

11.2%

13.1%

14.2%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

Geographical boundaries

Children and gender issues

The issue of tribalism

Implementation of the new constitution

Civic education on elections

The issue of free education

Drug abuse and alcoholism especially among…

Poor government

Food insecurity

IDP's resettlement

Price control of basic commodities

Poverty

Infrastructure & social amenities

The issue of high cost of living

Corruption

Insecurity

Unemployment especially amongst the youth

What are the most pressing issues facing the residents of this constituency currently?

Most pressing issues facing Kenyans

Youth unemployment 14%

Inflation & high cost of living 16%

Infrastructure 9%

Poverty 8%

Food security 5%

Youth unemployment 14%

Drug Abuse and Alcoholism amongst

youth

4%

Persistent issue month on month this

year

Feb 17%

March 16%

May 10%

June 13%

Economy

52%

Youth

18%

Insecurity

13%

Corruption 11%

Poor leadership 4%

Free education 3%

Civic education on elections 3%

Implementation of constitution 2%

Tribalism 2%

Child/gender issues 1%

Boundaires 1%

Poor Governance

15%

Others

12%

Most pressing issues facing Kenyans

Youth unemployment ; the ticking time bomb waiting to explode

UNEMPLOYMENT In Kenya, the realities of youth

unemployment are conspicuous and the statistics frightening.

Government statistics show the youth comprise almost 40 per cent of the country’s population. Of this, 75 per cent are under 30.

Though 80 per cent of them are literate, a staggering 67 per cent are jobless.

The numbers increase annually as 750,000 young people join the job market after dropping out of school, being sieved by an education system that can only absorb a few and graduating from universities, polytechnics, colleges and vocational training institutions.

Being literate, however, does not mean possessing the right skills required in the job market.

Only 1.5 per cent of the unemployed youth have formal education beyond secondary school level while lack of experience makes it hard for the qualified to get jobs.

DRUG ABUSE For the youths in slums and rural areas, the

scenario is much worse pushing them against the wall and forcing them to take up survival occupations like casual factory workers, hawking, tailoring, salons and barber shops, househelps (maids), mechanics, cobblers, boda boda operators and other such menial jobs.

Their troubles are exacerbated by the fact that they are hard hit by other social problems.

For instance, young people below the age of 25 are more likely to be infected with HIV and are easily lured into crime and prostitution.

Those between the age of 13 and 19 experience high prevalence of unplanned pregnancies, are more likely to procure illegal abortions and can easily fall into the dragnet of drug abuse.

Living in such a tough environment that makes them vulnerable has not gone down well with many youths who accuse the Government of being indifference to their plight and failing in its mandate of creating opportunities.

Standard Newpaper & World Bank

Kenyan Economy has been walking the tight rope

Kenya’s economy is gradually recovering from last year’s shocks and is expected to grow at 5 percent in 2012. But the economy remains vulnerable to domestic and global shocks that may reduce growth to 4.1 percent, says the latest World Bank economic report on Kenya.

“The challenge for the government, particularly in an election year, is to continue to run the economy well, to support private sector efforts to increase manufacturing and exports, and to remove bottlenecks to regional trade, so that Kenya stays on a higher growth path.”

Insecurity

According to ISS Kenya’s current security problems are twofold:

• first, those relating to tensions with its nearest neighbours - most notably with Somalia, Uganda and Sudan;

• and, secondly, those associated with the country’s rapidly escalating levels of violence and crime.

Trend analysis of top five pressing issues facing Kenyans since February 2012

n=11,616

Most pressing issues facing Kenyans Feb March May June

Unemployment especially among youth 13% 25% 8% 14.2%

Issue of insecurity/violence 17% 16% 10% 13.1%

Corruption 4% 6% 22% 11.2%

Issue of high cost of living 15% 25% 9% 10.1%

Implementation of the new constitution 4% 1% 13% 1.6%

The top five most pressing issues are unemployment especially amongst the youth, insecurity, corruption, high cost of living and implementation of the new constitution. These are the main issues Kenyans Coalition Government to act on.

What are the most pressing issues facing the residents of this constituency currently?

Popularity of Political Parties

Political party popularity

41.9%

12.4%

11.3%

8.1%

Political Party Popularity

7.8%

5.6%

3.3%

1.8%

1.2%

Popularity of Political Parties

ODM still commands the lead with 4 in every 10 surveyed respondents indicating ODM is their favorite political party. The newly launched National Alliance Party (TNA) came second at 12.4% closely followed the Party of National Unity at 11.3%. Other include URP, WDM and UDF at 8.1%, 7.8%, 5.6% respectively

n=9807

41.9%

12.4% 11.3% 8.1% 7.8%

5.6% 3.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

3.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

OD

M

TN

A

PN

U

UR

P

WD

M

UD

F

KA

NU

NA

RC

-K

UD

M

FO

RD

-K

NA

RC

NA

K

CC

U

PD

P

DP

Oth

ers

Generally, which is your favorite Political Party and why?

Popularity of Political Parties by Region

Generally, which is your favorite Political Party and why?

Political Party Coast N. Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Western Nyanza Nairobi

ODM 59.7% 57.9% 17.7% 14.1% 29.1% 49.3% 84.4% 47.9%

TNA 8.0% 2.4% 13.1% 36.3% 12.6% 1.5% 1.7% 19.5%

PNU 8.2% 26.9% 18.4% 24.0% 7.7% 3.7% 4.3% 7.3%

URP 1.5% 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 30.3% 0.8% 0.9% 2.6%

WDM 4.4% 1.3% 34.1% 1.9% 2.8% 1.2% 0.8% 8.5%

UDF 2.9% 1.3% 1.3% 2.5% 3.9% 31.4% 1.1% 4.1%

KANU 3.2% 6.4% 3.6% 2.6% 3.8% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5%

NARC-K 4.4% 1.2% 2.1% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4%

UDM 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5%

Others 3.6% 1.9% 3.2% 7.7% 3.5% 4.2% 0.4% 2.7%

n=9807

Popularity of Political Parties by Counties

Political Parties

County ODM TNA PNU URP WDM UDF KANU NARC-K UDM Others

Mombasa 53.5% 6.8% 8.5% 0.5% 5.8% 2.7% 2.9% 7.5% 3.9% 7.9%

Garissa 50.8% 2.5% 36.7% 1.0% 1.7% 0.2% 6.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Meru 17.5% 25.1% 30.9% 0.2% 1.6% 1.4% 3.7% 2.7% 0.2% 16.7%

Machakos 4.4% 1.7% 4.7% 0.5% 83.7% 0.5% 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 2.1%

Kiambu 18.1% 31.9% 22.5% 1.4% 2.8% 4.8% 3.4% 2.8% 1.1% 11.2%

Uasin Gishu 24.7% 5.0% 4.3% 40.3% 5.3% 3.7% 3.7% 1.3% 4.3% 7.4%

Nakuru 26.5% 34.8% 11.3% 4.8% 4.3% 2.6% 5.3% 2.1% 2.4% 5.9%

Kakamega County 42.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 52.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9%

Bungoma County 44.0% 1.4% 11.0% 1.6% 0.8% 6.9% 7.4% 3.6% 4.1% 19.2%

Kisumu 86.0% 2.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6%

Migori 93.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Nairobi City 47.6% 18.7% 8.5% 2.7% 8.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 6.2%

In case of a run-off

Run-off Scenarios

Presidential Candidate

Incidence Scenario Incidence Presidential Candidate Sample (N) Unweighted

Non Response Rate

Raila Odinga 50% VS 50% Uhuru Kenyatta N=10245 11.8%

Raila Odinga 57% VS 43% Kalonzo Musyoka N=10176 12.4%

Raila Odinga 55% VS 45% Musalia Mudavadi N=10222 12.0%

Raila Odinga 60% VS 40% William Ruto N=10071 13.3%

Raila Odinga 61% VS 39% Peter Kenneth N=10141 12.7%

Raila Odinga 60% VS 40% Martha Karua N=10141 12.7%

Uhuru Kenyatta 59% VS 41% Kalonzo Musyoka N=9711 16.4%

Uhuru Kenyatta 60% VS 40% William Ruto N=9514 18.1%

Uhuru Kenyatta 67% VS 33% Peter Kenneth N=9630 17.1%

Uhuru Kenyatta 58% VS 42% Musalia Mudavadi N=9688 16.6%

Uhuru Kenyatta 61% VS 39% Martha Karua N=9653 16.9%

Peter Kenneth 52% VS 48% Martha Karua N=9467 18.5%

Kalonzo Musyoka 47% VS 53% Musalia Mudavadi N=9467 18.5%

Kalonzo Musyoka 55% VS 45% William Ruto N=9270 20.2%

Musalia Mudavadi 63% VS 37% William Ruto N=9374 19.3%

If the presidential contest was only between two presidential candidates, whom would you vote for as your President between……

Running Mates

Top 7 presidential hopefuls and their Preferred Running

Mates

Top 7 Presidential hopefuls

Preferred Running Mate

Raila Odinga

Uhuru Kenyatta

Kalonzo Musyoka

William Ruto

Musalia Mudavadi

Martha Karua

Peter Kenneth

Musalia Mudavadi 17.9% 18.5% 13.1% 10.5% - 9.6% 6.9%

William Ruto 8.6% 29.7% 12.8% - 12.6% 3.7% 9.2%

Uhuru Kenyatta 10.1% - 26.4% 37.5% 16.1% 16.2% 13.1%

Martha Karua 12.4% 9.3% 7.5% 6.0% 10.4% - 20.3%

Kalonzo Musyoka 9.7% 11.3% - 9.2% 6.5% 11.0% 5.9%

Raila Odinga 6.9% 8.8% 5.6% 15.5% 13.0% 11.5%

Eugene Wamalwa 6.5% 7.0% 7.9% 5.3% 8.0% 6.3% -

Peter Kenneth 6.0% 6.7% 3.0% 2.7% 7.3% 13.0% 2.0%

Raphael Tuju 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 3.5% 2.2% 4.6% 5.9%

Charity Ngilu 2.7% 0.4% 3.7% 0.4% 1.3% 7.4% 1.3%

Henry Kosgey 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% - 0.3%

Others 20.5% 8.3% 14.6% 18.3% 19.4% 15.2% 23.6%

Demographics

SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY REGION

n=11,616

23%

15%

13% 13%

10% 10% 10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

R. Valley Eastern Nyanza Central Coast Nairobi Western N. Eastern

SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY GENDER

n=11,616

Males, 49% Females, 51%

SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY AGE

n=11,616

8%

28%

23%

15% 13%

5% 4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

18-20 Yrs. 21-25 Yrs. 26-30 Yrs. 31-35 Yrs. 36-40 Yrs. 41-45 Yrs. 46-50 Yrs. 51+ Yrs.

SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY EDUCATION LEVEL

n=11,616

19%

42%

27%

9%

1% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Primary Secondary College Post graduate None

SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION LOCATION

n=11,616

Rural , 68%

Urban, 32%

ABOUT INFOTRAK

Infotrak Research and Consulting (hereinafter referred to as Infotrak) is a highly reputed research company with exceptional qualifications and extensive experience in high quality research. Infotrak’s technical strengths lie in its ability to efficiently design and field social science surveys and impact evaluations of the highest quality and to manage survey, administrative, and program data for research and evaluation purposes.

The company was founded and incorporated under the Laws of Kenya in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi Kenya, Infotrak also has affiliate offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Research and Consultancy firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth to not only innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as “Business Minds who specialize in research”.

Infotrak has a long history in conducting research and has carried out similar projects for various clients. We have set a worldwide standard in the efficient conduct of scientifically rigorous data collection efforts, which encompass the development of survey instruments, the design of efficiently executable and scientifically valid samples, survey administration and data acquisition, data processing, and analysis.

Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand. In the recent constitutional referendum in Kenya, Infotrak was the only research firm which accurately predicted the outcome of the referendum.

The company has retained both permanent and temporary employees to discharge its activities. The team is comprised of highly motivated, talented and experienced professionals with academic competence in diverse fields. The team has extensive and proven experience in both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies.