Information | Analytics | Expertise SEPTEMBER 2014 O ... · Global Top5 Automotive Markets 3 AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS / SEPTEMBER 2014 .0.9.6.6 .9 .5 .1 .4 .4.1 .4.3 .5, .4.2 0 5 10 15

9/5/2014

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Information | Analytics | Expertise

© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

O DESAFIO DAS METAS DE EFICIÊNCIA ENERGÉTICA

SEPTEMBER 2014

Vitor Klizas, Managing Director

+55 19 3578 1225

[email protected]

© 2014 IHS

Agenda • Brazilian Auto market

• Inovar Auto

• CO2 RS Toolset

• Technology adoption

2

AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS / SEPTEMBER 2014

mailto:[email protected]

9/5/2014

2

© 2014 IHS

Global Top5 Automotive Markets

3


Chin

a, 1

7.0

Chin

a, 2

4.9

Chin

a, 3

0.6

Unite

d S

tate

s,

11

.6

Unite

d S

tate

s,

16

.5

Unite

d S

tate

s,

16

.4

Ja

pa

n, 4

.9

Ja

pa

n, 5

.1

Ind

ia, 5

.4

Bra

zil, 3

.3

Bra

zil, 3

.4

Ja

pa

n, 4

.5

Ge

rma

ny,

3.1

Ind

ia, 3

.4

Bra

zil, 4

.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020

Mil

lio

ns

In South America, Brazil leads the automotive market. In 2013, Brazil sold a total of 3.57 million

vehicles and ranked as the fourth largest market in the world, behind China, USA and Japan. In the

short term, India will surpass Brazil and Japan, becoming the third largest LV market.

DATA: IHS LV SALES FORECAST 2014M07

© 2014 IHS

Brazilian Sales Forecast

4

3.32 3.42 3.63 3.57

3.36 3.45 3.60

3.75 3.89

4.04 4.17

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Gro

wth

ra

te

Mil

lio

ns


Sales of new vehicles in Brazil will continue to be driven primarily by affordability. Per capita GDP grew

from USD8,373 in 2009 to USD11,321 in 2012. Part of the growth in the vehicle market is driven by

the growth in the middle income segment of the population, as well as easier access to credit which is

getting restrict since 2013. The access to credit and interest rates are important, because roughly 70%

of vehicles purchased in Brazil are financed.


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© 2014 IHS

Market has been Changing

5

73.7%

63.9% 60.9%

14.8%

23.0% 25.4%

10.1% 9.7% 9.6%

1.2% 3.3% 3.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Big 4 Asians Frenchs Premiums

-2.3% -1.3% -1.7% -0.8%

2010 – 2013 Period



© 2014 IHS

Higher Competition pushing Investments

6

Players strengthening its presence in the market...

(over 300% growth between 2008 to 2013)

...And Chinese's arriving

Hyundai HB20

Toyota Etios

Nissan March

Honda Brio (2017)

Asians increasing market share with offers in B-Segment


With Asians brands investing in B-

segments and new players in the market,

competition started to get tougher. Besides

Asians brands, it was observed an

important increase in premiums brands

volumes with real appreciation.


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© 2014 IHS

Price Trend defined by Market and Taxes

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

R$ 38,000.00

R$ 40,000.00

R$ 42,000.00

R$ 44,000.00

R$ 46,000.00

R$ 48,000.00

R$ 50,000.00

R$ 52,000.00

Th

ou

san

ds

Transaction Price Trendline Sales

2008 E

co

no

mic

Tu

rmo

il

Higher Competition

Basket with 90% of the vehicles in Brazilian market

DATA: IHS LV SALES FORECAST 2014M07 / MOLICAR

Retail price increased from 2002 to 2007 headed by Big 4. With 2008 economic turmoil, retail prices

started to decline due to government incentives as IPI reduction and carmakers reducing their profit

margin. Retail price kept its decline trend due to higher competition observed lately with newcomers

and more demanding consumers.

Less C

om

peti

tors

an

d M

ore

Co

nte

nt


© 2014 IHS

Even with tax incentives, OEMs are still being established in the Southeast Region

8

GM – Gravataí

Agrale – Caxias do Sul

Fiat – Betim

Fiat – Sete Lagoas

PSA – Porto Real

MAN – Resende

R/N – Resende

Land Rover – Itatiaia – SOP 2016M02

Ford – Camaçari

JAC – Camaçari – SOP 2015M07

Ford – São Bernardo do Campo

VW – São Bernardo do Campo

GM – São Caetano do Sul

Honda – Sumaré #1

Toyota – Indaiatuba

Toyota – Sorocaba

Hyundai – Piracicaba

Honda – Itirapina – SOP 2015M08

Chery – Jacareí – SOP 2014M11

Mercedes Benz – Iracemápolis - SOP 2016M01

GM – São José dos Campos #2

VW – Taubaté

R/N – São José dos Pinhais #1

R/N – São José dos Pinhais #2

VW – São José dos Pinhais

Audi – São José dos Pinhais - SOP 2015M07

Fiat – Recife – SOP 2015M02

Hyundai [CAOA] – Anápolis

Mitsubishi – Catalão

Suzuki – Itumbiara

Hafei – Manaus

Mahindra – Manaus

BMW – Araquari – SOP 2014M10

*New Plants in RED

DATA: IHS LV PRODUCTION FORECAST 2014M07


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© 2014 IHS

Players Investing in local Production [2012-2016]

9

US$ 6,52 B

US$ 4,50 B

US$ 1,95 B

US$ 1,78 B

US$ 1,08 B

US$ 1,07 B

US$ 0,43 B

US$ 0,43 B

US$ 0,43 B

US$ 0,43 B

US$ 0,43 B

US$ 0,35 B

US$ 0,33 B

US$ 0,32 B

US$ 0,28 B

US$ 0,22 B

US$ 0,13 B

US$ 0,06 B

Total

US$ 20,8 Billions

Traditional Players

$18,30 B

New Players

$2,10 B



© 2014 IHS

Capacity reaching over 5 million in 2015

10

Many carmakers are making investments in Brazil, to capture increasing demand not only in Brazil, but

for the whole region. INOVAR-AUTO also is an important factor of carmakers investments, which

brought new plants as strategy to avoid extra imports taxes determined by the new regime.

3.7

1

3.6

4

3.8

5

4.3

6

4.5

5

5.0

9

5.3

6

5.4

5

5.6

2

5.6

7

5.7

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Uti

liza

tio

n

Cap

ac

ity

Capacity Utilization



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© 2014 IHS 11

INOVAR AUTO

Local Content

Fuel Efficiency Innovation

Local Content on Auto Parts and Tools:

reduction of up to 30 percentage points of IPI

calculated based on net local purchases of

parts for car assembly and tools.

Today, local content is measured by the

factors determined by the decree, therefore a

new system for admeasurement is been

developed by the Government and it will be

launched in the upcoming months.

Fuel efficiency: additional reduction of up to

2 percentage points for companies that reach

the fuel efficiency targets, in 2016/2020.

Legal compliance target can be revised after

2017 increasing the efficiency improvement.

Innovation: additional reduction of up to 2

percentage points in the IPI for companies

that meet investment goals in R & D and

engineering.

This incentive is valid through 2017 and will

only be extended with new amendment.

Inovar Auto


© 2014 IHS 12

TARGETS

(calculated based on vehicle’s mass)

Autonomy km/l Parameters

MJ/KM

Incremental fuel

efficiency(%) Gasoline

(E22)

Ethanol

(E100) Baseline - 2011 14,00 9,71 2,07

Target for Legal Compliance - 2017 15,93 11,04 1,82 12,08%

Incentive Target 1 pp on IPI – 2016/2020 16,57 11,48 1,75 15,46%

Incentive Target 2 pp on IPI – 2016/2020 17,26 11,96 1,68 18,84%

60

80

100

120140

160180

200

220

240

260280

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

US (FTP75/US06)Europe (NEDC)Japan (JC08)China (NEDC)S.Korea (NEDC)

Fuel Efficiency Targets


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© 2014 IHS

CO2 Response Simulation Toolset

13

Features

No need for installation of additional software

Technologies Includes those forecasted by the

Powertrain Group + additional ones (e.g. Electric Power Steering)

Cost assessment of technologies

Model coefficients Set based on test cycles

Can be adjusted by customers

Even sales volumes are adjustable

Reports (Volume & Cost)

Description

Delivered in MS Access Database & model logic

Users need to have MS Office 2010 installed

Source Data

IHS Sales Based Powertrain Forecast

Actual data for Dimensions & weights

Actual fuel economy / CO2 emission data

Model

coefficients

and section

(List of tables)

Reports

section

(List of tables)

Scenario selection

influences the target

(Brazil legislation

specific)


© 2014 IHS

Technologies Considered

14

Nameplate

VVT Low Resistance

Tires

Friction Reduction

Electric Power Steering

Alternator Improvement

Start Stop Transmission

Direct Injection

Cylinder Deactivation

Engine

Turbo


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© 2014 IHS

Features Customized

15

Nameplate

Weight

Vehicle Cycle Plan

Sales Volumes

CO2

Technologies Cost

Technologies Efficiency


© 2014 IHS

2016 Scenario before Simulation

16 DATA: CO2 RESPONSE SIMULATION TOOLSET

R$ 1.9

R$ 0.0

R$ 0.5

R$ 1.0

R$ 1.5

R$ 2.0

R$ 2.5

2016 CO2 Technology Spend

Billi

on

s

Technology Adoption

R$1.1 Billion before Inovar Auto

Pipeline

CO² Compliance


9/5/2014

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© 2014 IHS

Legal Compliance Simulation Results


R$ 1.9

R$ 2.0

R$ 0.0

R$ 1.0

R$ 2.0

R$ 3.0

R$ 4.0

R$ 5.0


Bil

lio

ns

Technology Adoption

Pipeline

Simulation

CO² Compliance


© 2014 IHS

1% IPI Target Simulation Results


R$ 1.9

R$ 2.6

R$ 0.0

R$ 1.0

R$ 2.0

R$ 3.0

R$ 4.0

R$ 5.0


Billi

on

s

Technology Adoption

Pipeline

Simulation

CO² Compliance


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© 2014 IHS

2% IPI Target Simulation Results


R$ 1.9

R$ 3.2

R$ 0.0

R$ 1.0

R$ 2.0

R$ 3.0

R$ 4.0

R$ 5.0


Bil

lio

ns

Technology Adoption

Pipeline

Simulation

CO² Compliance


© 2014 IHS

Technology Adoption (Pipeline + Simulation)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Stop/Start DI Low ResistanceTires

VVT FrictionReduction

Electric PowerSteering

TC/SC AlternatorImprovements

Millio

ns

Compliance 1% IPI Target 2% IPI Target


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© 2014 IHS

Powertrain Technologies

Gasoline Direct Injection Turbo and Super Chargers


© 2014 IHS


Stop Start system VVT – Variable Valve Timing

PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014

22

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© 2014 IHS


DCT +6 forward speeds CVT

23


© 2014 IHS

Powertrain technology Roadmap

24

Roadmaps

Low Speed Collision Avoidance

Car-To-Car Collision Avoidance

1970 2000 2015

//

Blind Spot Monitoring

HEV’s Japan & North America

HEV’s Europe

CVT Transmission’s (mainly Japanese)

PHEV’s Europe

Volume EV’s

Motorized Belt Retractor Inflatable Bolster

PHEV’s Asia & North America

VVT/VVL

Crush Zones

Gas Direct Injection

//

Turbo & Super Chargers

HCCI

DCT Transmissions

+6-Speed Automatic Transmissions

HEV’s & EV’s

Transmissions

Other

Micro Hybrids (Europe & Asia


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© 2014 IHS

Infotainment Technology Roadmap

25

CONNECTIVITY Bluetooth 2.0

Bluetooth 3.0

Wireless USB 2 & 3 iPod Jacks

USB

Bluetooth

HMI

User recognition Touch Screen & Larger Display

Free program-able displays

Natural speech recognition Selective voice recognition

Larger Heads Up Display

Embedded Entertainment Digital TV, Digital Radio

2000 2008 2010 2015 2021

Gesture recognition

Lip reading

Pulse-touch Screen

CD、MP3、CD-R USB/SD access to more 3rd party entertainment solution

2G/2.5G Phone 3G Phone

4G Phone 5G Phone

6G Phone

Mobile Technology

OEM Telematics

GM OnStar (1997)

Hyundai SYNC Toyota G-BOOK、Nissan

Carwings, Honda Internavi

BMW——iPod audio system C2C/C2X

FORD SYNC FORD 2nd SYNC

NAVIGATION GPS Navigation Dominates

OEM Navigation Grows (safety related)

Aftermarket Navigation Dominates

HDD Navigation Portable SD/HDD

USB Mass-use

CD/DVD Navigation


© 2014 IHS

Safety Technology Roadmap

Low Speed Collision Avoidance

Car-To-Car Collision Avoidance

1970 2000 2005 2010 2021

//

ACC @ Stop&Go @ Precrash Braking

Blind Spot Monitoring

Lane Keeping Support

Drowsy Driver Monitoring

Accident Mitigation by GPS

Electronic Stability Control @ Rollover Mitigation

Active Suspension

Rollover Sensing

Curtain Airbags

(Smart) Airbags

Side Airbags

Motorized Belt Retractor

Inflatable Bolster

Active Front Steering Seat Belts

Anti Lock Brakes

Crush Zones

Stiff Passenger Compartment

Single Point Crash Sensing

//

Pedestrian Protection

Pedestrian Pre-Sensing

Traffic Sign Recognition

Reversible Airbags

Safety Steering

Peripheral Satellites

Body Sound Sensing

LRD Airbags Driver Assist & Accident Avoidance

Vehicle Dynamic Control

Restraint System

Vehicle Structure

Roadmaps


9/5/2014

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© 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal

client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal

notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor

are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or

expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at [email protected], +1 800 IHS CARE

(from North American locations), or +44 (0) 1344 328 300 (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are

the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

Vitor Klizas

+55 19 3578-1225

+55 19 9 8198-5721

[email protected]

Fernando Trujillo

+55 19 35478-1224

+55 19 9 8198-5854

[email protected]

Cecilia Camarão

+55 19 3578-1226

[email protected]

Contact us




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Information | Analytics | Expertise SEPTEMBER 2014 O ... · Global Top5 Automotive Markets 3 AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS / SEPTEMBER 2014 .0.9.6.6 .9 .5 .1 .4 .4.1 .4.3 .5, .4.2 0 5 10 15