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INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN
ECUADOR: A CASE STUDY OF HYDROELECTRIC PRODUCTION &
DROUGHTS
WATER RESOURCES PROJECT:
Coordinators: Edison Heredia-Calderón Remigio H. Galarraga-Sánchez
Participants: Alexandre Gagnon
Andrea Ray
Claudine Dereczynski
Giampaolo Orlandoni
Ileana Mora
Marcos Costa
Patricia Jaime
Simone Ferraz
Thomas Pagano
WATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL
RAINFALL-RUNOFF TRANSFORMATIONBY CONCEPTUAL MATHEMATICAL MODEL
HIDROELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
OBJECTIVE
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND HYDROELECTRIC POWER GENERATION
CLIMATE VARIABILITYPHYSICAL DAM CAPACITY
WATER RESERVES MANAGEMENTTO SATISFY THE POWER DEMANDGIVEN THE RESTRICTION POSED
BY
CLIMATOLOGY DISCHARGES
ENERGY DEMAND
HYDROELECTRICPOWER
GENERATION
Calculate rainfall anomalies in terms of variance
PA = P – P p
where
P : mean precipitationp: standard deviation of precipitation
Monthly precipitation anomalies correlated with SST anomalies in region
•SST in region Niño1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 4•SOI
Identification of ENSO signal on the climate of Ecuador
The Relationship Between SOI and Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo
SST in Region Niño 1+2 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo
SST in Region Niño 3 versus Rainfall Anomalies in Portoviejo
SSTA Niño 1+2 versus rainfall anomaliesin Portoviejo
Correlation Between Strong El Niño versus Rainfall Anomalies in Coastal Ecuador
Monthly Average Precipitation at Paute (1963-1999)
Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 1+2 at Paute
Monthly Precipitation versus Niño 3 at Paute
Monthly Precipitation versus SOI at Paute
Niño4 SST Anomaly Sep-Dec versus Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow at Paute 1968-95
1970
North Atlantic SSTA Feb-Mar-Apr Average correlated with Jan-Aug Cumulative Streamflow
at Paute
Hydroelectric power production at Paute river
• Mean yearly inflow discharge for normal, dry and wet years.
• Cumulated mass (discharge and volume) x inflow volumes for wet, dry and normal years
MEAN YEARLY INFLOW DISCHARGE AT PAUTE
CUMULATED MASS CURVES (Discharge and Volume)
DAILY ENERGY PRODUCTION, INFLOW AND RESERVOIR ELEVATION (OCT, 1995)
RAINFALL - RUNOFF MODEL " N L C "
DEFINITION OF THE MODEL
• NLC is aimed at simulation of outflow from natural catchments.
conceptual model consisting of storage (linear and nonlinear)
elements.
• NLC represents a single, two-component, rainfall-runoff model capable of modeling groundwater flow and direct runoff.
• NLC is a lumped type MODE
the input into the model is total rainfall over the catchment in each time
interval.
Input Data
• Rainfall is provided at each simulation step. It could be supplied in two ways:
- up to ten rain gauges
- areal averages.
• Calibration procedure is not part of the package. Trial-and-error procedure must be used.
MODEL VARIABLES
• PA input precipitation (mm)
• ETP evapotranspiration (mm)
• PE effective precipitation (mm)
• Qs direct runoff (m3/s)
• GI groundwater input (m3/s)
• Qg groundwater runoff (m3/s)
• Q total runoff (m3/s)
• QDD deep percolation (mm)
• parameters of the unsaturated zone
- ENN maximum water holding capacity (mm)
- EF actual water content (mm)
• Other parameters
Simulated and Observed Discharge at Paute - 1989
Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
M050 ARENALES - COLA DE SAN PABLO PRECIPITACION MEDIA
Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
M067 CUENCA AEROPUERTO PRECIPITACION MEDIA
Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
M541 COCHAPAMBA QUINGEO PRECIPITACION MEDIA
Climatic Zones at Paute Basin
M418 CUMBE PRECIPITACION MEDIA
M138 PAUTE PRECIPITACION MEDIA