Upload
alexander-oliver
View
213
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Industrial Market
September, 2009
Houston’s
Keynote Speaker: Mark Nicholas, SIORSenior Vice President
Houston Industrial Market: Then and Now
Topic 2007 2009
Job Growth 70,000 - 95,100
Demand (SF) 2,800,000 -4,106
Land Prices
Small Tracts ( 3 -10 acres) $3.25 - $3.50 / SF $3.00 - $3.25 / SF
Large Tracts ( > 20 acres ) $2.85 / SF $2.50 - $2.75 / SF
Improved Industrial Properties Cap Rates - Free Standing
8% - 9% 9.5% - 11.5%
Houston Industrial Market: Then and Now
Topic 2007 2009
Port Activity Strong Slowing
Energy Sector Strong Slowing
Leasing Market Strong Weak
User Sales Strong Weak
Spec. Development Slowing None
Commercial Real Estate Lending Outlook
Equity 25 - 40%Rate Prime + points
3.25% +1.25 %4.50%
Amortization 15-yr ; 5-yr call
•Not all banks are lending - must speak with many
•Will still do non-recourse but will require a higher down payment; rate will be from 6.5 – 8.0%
•Subject to financial strength of client
•All banks want long-term relationship – business, real estate, FFE, etc.
Houston Industrial Real Estate Outlook• Asking rents continue to fall• The gap between asking rents and effective rents is widening• With demand weak through at least the end of the year, concession packages will continue to be
lucrative• Tenants can relocate from a Class B to a Class A building for the same rate
- Good credit- Longer term commitment (i.e. 7-10 years)
• 2010 (2nd half) will likely show increase in activity for Build-to-Suits and Design-Builds for reasons as follows:
- Pent up demand from 4th Quarter 2008 - 1st Quarter 2010- Lack of existing product that meets long-term needs of credit companies- Developers with 'shovel ready' sites are well positioned to deliver inside 9-10 months
• Energy Service Companies: - 225,000/SF Under Construction in West Houston- 165,000/sf Completed Lease transaction in May 2009 in East Houston- 77,000/Sf Build To Suit Completed September 2009 in North Houston