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Industrial.Moscow
Supply2014 was a record year for completions with 1.72 million m2 of new high quality industrial space appeared in Moscow region. This is the highest completion volume in the history of the industrial market. Total stock in 2014 almost reached 11 million m2 and accounted for 10.93 million m2.
Key market figures in 2014
Source: Colliers International
Year-end report | 2015 | Russia | Colliers International
Key market figures in 2014
INDEX VALUE
Total stock, million m2 10.93
Completions, million m2 1.72
Take-up, million m2 1.02
Vacancy rate, % 6.3
Average rental rate, RUB/m2/year* 4,500
Average sale price, RUB/m2* 43,000
Major industrial complexes completed in 2014
PROPERTY DEVELOPER AREA, M2
PNK-Chekhov 2, bldg 1, 4.1, 4.2, 5, 6, 7 PNK Group 159,500
Industrial Park South Gate Radius Group 130,000
SST-Britovo Sovremennye Skladskie Tekhnologii 127,100
Logopark Nikolskoye Eastward Capital 105,400
PNK-Northen Sheremetievo, bldg 8, 9, 11 PNK Group 96,100
Logopark Sofyino AT Nedvizhimost 86,000
Logopark Dmitrov, bldg B GHELAMCO 75,400
Logopark Sever, phase 1 Logopark Development 75,000
Logopark Novaya Riga Raven Russia 67,390
* Here and below, rental rates are given excluding VAT, OPEX and utilities; the sale price is net of VAT
NORTH
NORTH-EAST
EAST
SOUTH-EAST
SOUTH
NORTH-WEST
WEST
SOUTH-WEST
2,006,000 m2
8.3%
452,000 m
3.0%
633,700 m2
765,200 m2
2
459,400 m2
2
2 2
1.0%
12,500 m
724,500 m2
4.3%
194,200 m
687,000 m2
9.0%
2
3.1%
2,700 m1,938,000 m2
2438,000 m
Moscow
3,515,000 m2
7.0%
501,000 m
12.6%
Total stock
Vacancy rate
Completions
242,200 m
2135,400 m
2
In 2014, the majority of completions were located in three directions — north, south-east and south of Moscow region. 27%, 25% and 23% of total high quality industrial completions were built there respectively.
The largest share of facilities completed in 2014 belong to PNK Group: six buildings with a total area 160,000 m2 were completed in Chekhov 2 and three buildings with approximately 100,000 m2 — in Northen Sheremetievo. In addition, other large facilities appeared in the market such as Logopark Nikolskoye by Eastward Capital (105,000 m2), Logopark Sofyino phase 1 (by AT Nedvizhimost, 86,000 m2), new building of Logopark Dmitrov (GHELAMCO, 75,400 m2) and a several buildings of Logopark Sever 2 (Logopark Development, 75,000 m2).
Approximately 60% of all completed facilities are located between 7.5 and 30 km from MKAD, where demand for industrial real estate is concentrated.
DemandA significant shift in demand structure occurred in 2014 resulting in an imbalance between demand and supply. The economic and geopolitical environment resulted in a decrease in tenant activity in Moscow region industrial market. The fast growth rate of completions have satisfied declining demand and, according to experts’ estimates, even outperformed it over the year.
As a result, demand in 2014 declined by 30% compared to previous year with total take-up accounting for 1.02 million m2 of high quality industrial space.
The share of pre-lease and pre-sale agreements in industrial market accounted for only 28% in 2014 against 60% in 2013, of which 69% were built-to-suit deals and only 31% of the deals concerned facilities under construction.
Major demand in the Moscow region industrial market was represented by retail and distribution companies, which purchased and rented around 50% of all closed deals.
Source: Colliers International
Source: Colliers International
Major lease and purchase transactions in 2014 in the Moscow Region
COMPANY AREA, M2 PROPERTY
Confidential 70,600* PNK-Bekasovo
Confidential 53,200* PNK-Northen Sheremetievo
Kari 45,000 SST-Britovo
STS Logistics 39,800 Logopark Sever-2
Plus (Tengelmann Group) 30,000 South Gate
Confidential 25,190* PNK-Chekhov 2
Bubble Gum 24,000 Tomilino K43
Х5 Retail group 22,280 Oriflame
Hoff 20,390 Absolut
Gulliver & Co 19,870 Berezhki
Uzhny Dvor 16,780 Nikka Tomilino
Transactions by tenant type, %
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Take-up, thousand m2Completions, thousand m2
511
1,1501,000
1,327
767
1,400
890
1,724
1,021904
507418
522
804
568
838
50%
12%
15%
23%
Other
Retail and distributions companies
Manufacturing companiesLogistics operators
Year-end report | 2015 | Russia | Colliers International
* - sale/purchase deal
Completions and take-up, thousand m2
3 Year-end report | 2015 | Russia | Colliers International
Vacancy ratesThe share of vacant industrial space in the Moscow region accounted for 6.3% in 2014. This is a record fi gure for the last fi ve years. The growth of the index was primarily infl uenced by a discrepancy between demand and supply.
Approximately 40% of total completions over the year remained vacant at the time of commissioning, while in the fourth quarter this was more than half (51%).
By the end of 2014, the major share of vacant supply in Moscow region was concentrated in the south-east and the north directions — 35% and 24% respectively. This is due to rapid construction and a growth in new high quality completions.
Rental rates The signifi cant completions volume and continuous ruble devaluation in 2014 signifi cantly infl uenced rental rates in the industrial market. Almost 90% of the deals are now nominated in roubles, although their share accounted for only 40-50% in the middle of the year.
The average rental rate in the Moscow region was 4,500 RUB/m2/year. Translated at the current exchange rate the rent in dollar terms decreased signifi cantly, while rental rates in rouble terms stayed at an exchange rate of 33-34 roubles and since 2012 this has been in 4,000-4,700 RUB/m2/year range.
According to expert forecasts, either contracts will still be nominated in roubles in 2015 or the dollar will be fi xed under 45 RUB.
The average sale/purchase/price of high quality warehouse facilities was 43,000 RUB per square meter at the end of 2014.
Source: Colliers International
Source: Colliers International
Source: Colliers International
Vacancy rates, %
Dynamics of rental rates and USD exchange rate
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 1
13
6
1.2 12
6.3
Q1
2012
Q1
2014
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q2
201
4
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
36.2
60
125
75*
202530354045
605550
65
RU
B/$
708090
100110
140130120
150
$/m
2 /yea
r
Rental rate, $/m2/year USD exchange rate, RUB/$
4,0544,193
4,4804,200 4,182
4,3534,510
4,4754,675
4,4354,520 4,500
135 135133
140 135 138 138 138
128 125
138
75
70
90
110
130
150
4,000
4,300
4,600
4,900
4,054
4,4804,200 4,182
4,3534,510
4,4754,675
USD rental rates, $/m2/year Rouble rental rates, RUB/m2/year
RU
B/m
2 /yea
r
$/m
2 /yea
r
Q1
2012
Q1
2014
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q2
201
4
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
* - 4,500 RUR/m2/year – average market rental rate (net of VAT, OPEX and utilities), USD rate is converted at the exchange rate on the corresponding date (60 RUR for 1 USD)
Dynamics of rental rates based on the relevant exchange rate
4 Year-end report | 2015 | Russia | Colliers International
Major industrial complexes planned to be completed in 2015
PROPERTY DEVELOPER AREA, M2
PNK-Chekhov 3, phase 1 PNK Group 102,200
Logopark Sever-2, phase 2 Logopark Development 93,100
PNK-Bekasovo, bldg 1, 3 PNK Group 92,600
Logopark Kievsky 22, phase 2 CPD Group 71,940
Logopark Novaya Riga Raven Russia 70,000
PNK-Northen Sheremetievo, bldg 10 PNK Group 66,530
Logopark Synkovo, bldg 2, 9, 10 Kholding Stroitelniy Aliyans 64,500
Warehouse complex Atlant Atlant Metalloplast 59,800
Sherrizone Nord Griffin Partners 55,600
Industrial Park South Gate Radius Group 51,000
Logopark Dmitrov, bldg С GHELAMCO 46,000
Warehouse complex Berezhki n/a 42,000
PNK-Chekhov 2, bldg 8 PNK Group 24,530
Warehouse complex Mikhailovskaya Sloboda Meridian Logistic 23,277
Trends and PrognosisThe industrial market has been infl uenced by the economic and geopolitical environment in Russia and throughout the whole of 2014. The market saw an imbalance in demand and supply, a record high completion volume and consumption slowdown, which altogether resulted in vacancy growth.
According to experts’ estimates, completed space will gradually be taken up by the market, while an insignifi cant volume of facilities announced for completion in 2015 will to a larger extent depend on fi nancing and lending terms for developers.
It is worth mentioning that signifi cant growth of construction volumes together with low tenant and buyer consumption has led to a completion schedule freeze and shifts of certain large facilities. It has also led to a change in function in some cases (thus, although TGC Group planned completion of Logopark Radumlya phase 1, totaling 161,000 m2 by the end of 2014, in October they announced a functional conversion into an agriculture cluster).
Dollar exchange rate volatility, seen since beginning of 2014, resulted in slowdown of a tenant activity and the speed of closing lease/sale contracts. Demand therefore decreased by 30% compared to the previous year.
Due to the almost complete market shift towards contracts nominated in roubles, current tenants are seeking to switch to rental rates in roubles or a currency band arrangement.
2014 saw increased competition among developers who are ready to make concessions and provide additional discounts in order to attract and keep tenants.
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Copyright © 2015 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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