Industrial Inter-Dependency for Sustainable Growth

Hasith Karunasekera & Dr. Shamil AppathuraiMobitel (Pvt) Ltd

Sri Lanka

ICT Growth proportional to Data Growth/Internet penetration

Between 2010 and 2011 Almost all countries increased their IDI values but..… developed countries have twice the IDI value of the developing ones

Source: ITU

ICT Growth and Data Consumption20

05

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

*

2013

*

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Individuals using the Internet (in millions)Individuals using the Internet per 100 inhabitants

mill

ions

Per

100

inha

bita

nts

Global numbers of individuals using the Internet, total and per 100 inhabitants

Source: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database

Global Data consumption is growing exponentially:

- Is this trend different in Sri Lanka?

Sri Lanka’s Data demand

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Internet Subscriptions - Sri Lanka

Fixed Mobile

Source: TRCSL

Similar trend for demand in Data BUT….Significant contribution from Mobile Broadband

Energy Consumption – Access Technologies

Source: IEEE Communications Magazine • June 2011

Sri Lanka – Energy Balance

Energy Balance, 2011Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority

Units: Peta Joules

Sri Lanka’s power consumption based on ICT (Telco) Infrastructure

Estimated Energy Requirement for Data consumption in Sri Lanka (2013) ~ 8 MW

ADSL network Access Rate per user ~ 4 MbpsDSL power per user ~ 8WFixed line Data subscribers ~ 500kPower consumption of Mobile users ~ 4 MW

UMTS network Access Rate per user ~ 1 MbpsUMTS power per user ~ 4WMobile Data Subscriber ~ 1 MillionPower consumption of Mobile Data users ~ 4 MW

Sri Lanka Electricity – Demand

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority

Catering for the peak demand is costly Energy is wasted in non peak hours

Growth in System Peak Demand

Source: Mobitel Data

Data Consumption Peak Demand

Sri Lanka ICT Consumption - Demand

Catering for the peak demand is costly Capacity is wasted in non peak hours

Infrastructure solutions for Optimal Energy Utilisation

Spectrum Re-arrangement for maximum coverage with minimal base-station sites

Avoid network duplication through RAN Sharing among operators

Provide energy to grid when power generated during off-peak through Net-Metering

Solutions for Peak Demand Catering

Storage & Re-useCachePumped Storage Hydro

Electricity

Smart Grid – Time ShiftBattery

Sri Lanka Electricity - Supply

Capacities from Major hydro power plants have become constantThe increasing demand will be supplied in the future through thermal power plantsNRE sources have also entered the play.

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority

Grid Installed Capacity by Type

Source: Sri Lanka Sustainable Energy Authority

Sustainable Business = Sustainable Energy Costs

Typical Operating Expenses

Electricity prices & Fuel Prices

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000Oil price vs. GP 1 unit price

Price per unit - GP-1 with Fuel Adjustment (LKR)

Crude Oil Price per barrel (LKR)

Rs.

Rs.

‘000

Electricity prices have high correlation with world crude oil prices

Higher proportion of thermal energy being powered through crude oil

In Sri Lanka future electricity prices will be more correlated with coal prices

Noracholai, Sampur

Thermal Energy (SL) – Now & Future

Higher portion of thermal power primarily through fuel oil.

Sri Lanka identified coal as a low cost energy source

Eg: Norocholai (900MW), Sampur (500MW)

Risk of increase in pollution

300

168

215165

843.5

Power Plants in the National Grid Capacity in 2011 (MW)

Steam, CoalDiesel EnginesGas Turbines, Diesel OilCombined Cycle, Naphtha and Diesel

Annie HazlehurstJoint MBA / MS Environment & Resources

CandidateStanford Graduate School of Business

1400

168215165

843.5

Power Plants in the National Grid Capacity in Future (MW)

Steam, CoalDiesel EnginesGas Turbines, Diesel OilCombined Cycle, Naphtha and Diesel

New Renewable Energy – Sri LankaSources of NRE

Tidal Energy Solar Energy

Geothermal Energy Wind Power

Telco Challenges - for Wind and Solar

Constraints on deployment of wind or solar systemSite Location – in the solar and wind mapTower heightSite Area – considerable area required for solar

Hybrid solutions – to provide 24 hour continuous power supply

Solar with GeneratorWind with GeneratorSolar and Wind with Generator

Re-use existing InfrastructureEg: battery bank

Note: Wind is more efficient than solar cells but much more scarce based on the location of the site.

Power Cost Variance in Sri Lanka

•Directly impacted by Ceylon Electricity Board’s Strategy

Electricity Powered

•Requirement for alternative renewable energy sources

Generator (Diesel) Powered

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5 Per Site Cost - Grid vs. Off-grid

Grid Power Generator Power

Cost-Benefit Analysis - Solar

Solar System (kW) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Area Required (m2)

24 33 39 49 56 62 66

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

1

2

3

4

5

6

Payback Period

Payback for US Supplier Payback for China Supplier

Solar System (kW)

Years

Conclusion

Data consumption will increase energy consumption

ICT solutions and Infrastructure design can be optimised through active collaboration

Renewable Energy is cost-beneficial and MUST supplement grid power

Thank you !

Think Smart, Use Less and Use Better

Don’t commute; Communicate!Dr. Arthur C. Clarke