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8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
1/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Indo-Pakistan
Relations:Political Realism
ParadigmPentagon’s ‘Asia 2025 Report’
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
2/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Focus Area :
Foundations of Indo-Pak
Relation Two Nation Theory
Origin of Indo-Pak Conflict
Foreign Policy Framework of
India & Pakistan Bilateral Political Engagement
Role of Extra Regional Powers
Future of Indo-Pak Relations
Additional Complexity
Future of Pakistan
AfPak Policy
Nuclearization of South Asia
China Factor
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
3/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
1947- Indo-Pak Division /
British Plan & Two Nation
Theory
PAKISTAN – In addition to
the existing political map
of Pakistan lands to be
added were- Punjab /Assam / Kashmir /
Baluchistan
Chronology of Events
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
4/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
British India Map before Partition
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
5/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Map After Division
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
6/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
7/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Sr. Indo-Pak Time line of
Conflict (PAK Version)
Sr. Indo-Pak Time line of Conflict (Indian Version)
1. 1947: Partition 1. 1947 Partition
2. 1947: First Kashmir War 2. 1947/48 - The first Indo-Pak war over Kashmir
3. 1960: Indus Water Treaty 3. January 1, 1949- War ends on with UN ceasefire
4. 1965: The Rann of Kutch 4. 1954 - The accession of J & K to India is ratified by
the state's constituent assembly
5. 1965: Second Kashmir War 5. 1963 –Indo-Pak Talk under the auspices of British &
Americans on Kashmir dispute. Talk Fails
6. 1971: Another War 6. 1964 - Pakistan refers the Kashmir case to the UN
Security Council
7. 1979: War in Afghanistan 7. 1965 - India and Pakistan fight their second war.
8. 1984: Kashmir Again 8. 1966 – Tashkent Agreement /Agreement to troopwithdrawal; diplomatic relations restoration.
9 1989: Campaign in Kashmir 9 1971 - India and Pakistan third time war. Bangladesh
carved out of East Pakistan
10 1992: The Ayodhia Mosque 10 1972- Simla Agreement & designation of "Line-of-
Control (LoC)"
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
8/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
11 1998: Nuclear Tests 11 1974 - The Kashmiri State Govt. affirms that the state "is a constituent unit of
the Union of India". Pakistan rejects the accord with the Indian government.
12 1999: Battle in Kashmir 12 1974- May- India detonates a nuclear device at Pokhran, in an operation
codenamed "Smiling Buddha"
13 2001: Terrorist Attacks 13 1988 - The two countries sign an agreement that neither side will attack the
other's nuclear installations or facilities
14. 2002: Ayodhia Struggle 14. 1989 – Pak proxy armed resistance to Indian rule in the Kashmir valley begins
1998 - India detonates five nuclear devices at Pokhran. Pakistan responds by
detonating six nuclear devices of its own in the Chaghai Hills.
1999 - Lahore Declaration of 'Confidence Building Measures' (CBMs).
1999 May- Kargil War
2001 December 13- Indian parliament attack by Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-
Muhammad. 14 people dead.
2002 - President Musharraf pledges that Pakistan will combat extremism on its
own soil, but affirms that the country has a right to Kashmir.
2004 January- Vajpayee and Musharraf hold direct talks at the 12th SAARC
summit in Islamabad
2007 February 18- Samjhauta Express train between India and Pakistan bombed
near Panipat, 68 people killed.
2008 - India joins a framework agreement between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan
and Pakistan on a $7.6bn gas pipeline project. A series of Kashmir-specific CBMs
are also agreed to (including the approval of a triple-entry permit facility).
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
9/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Economic Marginalization of East
PakistanYear Spending onWest
Pakistan(Cr.Rs)
Spending on
East Pakistan
(Cr.Rs)
Net Spending %
of total
expenditure
1950/51-
54/55
1,129 524 31.7
1955/56-
59/60
1,655 524 24.0
1960/61-
64/65
3,355 1,404 29.5
1965/66-
69/70
5,195 2,141 29.2
Total 11,334 4,593 28.8
Source: Reports of the Advisory Panels for the 4th Five
Year Plan 1970-75, Vol. I, published by the Planning
Commission of Pakistan
Why Did East
Pakistan secede?
1. Politically Marginalized
2. Far Away to Administer
3. Economic Marginalization
4. Different Language5. Considered as a Colony of
West Pakistan
6. Political implications of mal
governance had direct
refugee implication to India
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
10/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
11/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
What's Wrong
with Pakistan?
Taliban Region or
Pashtun FATA- 40
Million People
Arab Identity
Muhajirs
Punjabis
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
12/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Foreign PolicyWhat’s Wrong with Pakistan?
Why geography -- unfortunately --
is destiny for South Asia's
troubled heartland.
By Robert D. Kaplan
June 18, 2012
“ A place where tribes are strong and
the central government is
comparatively weak” (Kaplan, 2012).Anatol Lieven in his book “Pakistan: A
Hard Country”, 2012 notes the same
as “a weak state with strong
societies”
http://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/whats-wrong-with-pakistan/http://foreignpolicy.com/author/robert-d-kaplanhttp://foreignpolicy.com/author/robert-d-kaplanhttp://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/whats-wrong-with-pakistan/http://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/http://foreignpolicy.com/category/argument/
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
13/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Indo-Pak Relations
Indo-Pak Conflict
Foreign Policy Directions
Role of International Actors
Future Directions
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
14/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Close to 70 Years ofconfrontation
India & Pakistan have fought
four Wars
Over 25 Years of Proxy war
One million civilian deaths
Forced migration of over tenmillion people
India & Pakistan
are at war fromthe time of
Partition since
1947
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
15/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Partition & Origin of Conflict
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
16/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
03 Princely States - Junagarh &Hyderabad (Muslim Ruler with Hindumajority population),
and J&K (Hindu Ruler and majority Muslimpopulation) had presented competingconfusion of accession
Maharaja Hari Singh, the then king of
J&K, faced with internal pro-PakistanMuslim revolt, signed the Instrumentof Accession of Jammu and KashmirState with Lord Mountbatten on 26th
October 1947 to join with Indian
Union.
At Partition- 565 ‘Princely States’ (nearly
99million people & 2/5th of India’s
land territory) were given the
option by the British imperial
authority to either join Indiaor Pakistan.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
17/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Operation Gulmarg- 22nd January 1947
Nearly 5,000 tribesmen led by Pakistani Armyregulars attacked the region and quickly
captured large parts of territory, looted, raped
women, killed the inhabitants, torched their
houses, and abducted young women to take
back to Pakistan.
Nearly about 11,000 residents of Baramullah
were killed and the Mohra power station that
supplied electricity to Srinagar was destroyed.
7 Months Prior to the
Treaty of Accession
While Pakistan sponsored aggression created what is known Azad
Kashmir - an independent government, this aggression seems to
have hastened Maharaja Hari Singh on October 26 to sign the
instrument of accession with India.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
18/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Operation Gulmarg
- 22nd January 1947
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
19/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Following the signing ofthe instrument of
accession, Indian army
entered Kashmir Valley.
Fought a 14 month
campaign that ended with
a ceasefire negotiated by
the United Nations along
with a de facto partition of
the state that continues
even today.
UN & Land Division
The United Nations brokered a peaceprocess & divided J&K.
India got possession of nearly 60% of
the land consisting of Kashmir Valley,
the low lying Jammu which isprimarily Hindu dominated area & the
high plateau of Ladhak- a mostly
Buddhist region.
Pakistan on the other hand gotpossession of now called ‘Azad
Kashmir’ or Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
20/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Currently, India, Pakistan,
and China control 45%, 35%
and 20% of land
respectively, of the original
J&K State.
China received about
35,000 square kilometers in
Aksai Chin in the 1962 war
with India.
And another 5,000 square
kilometers in Balistan ceded
by Pakistan under a bilateral
treaty signed in March 1963
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
21/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
1. First, as per Pakistan’s calculation,
having lost to China, Indian
defense establishment may not be
willing for another armed conflict.
2. Second, Pakistani initiative might
receive popular Kashmiri support
3. Finally, as per Pakistan
intelligence, a quick military
campaign could take India by
surprise
1965 WarBegan in August 5, 1965
& ended on Sept 22,
1965.
3 prominent factors
seem to have
accentuated Pakistaniarmy adventure to
occupy Kashmir by
force.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
22/52BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Pakistani attempt to seize Kashmirwas unsuccessful.
The second India-Pakistan Warreached a stalemate.
& finally under the supervision &coordination of Soviet Union, theTashkent (Uzbekistan Capital)
Agreement of January 10, 1966concluded the war.
Without any land or prisoner ofwar being exchanged in either side.
1965 War:
Bilateral War &Multilateral Power
Balance
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
23/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
It is Prime Minister
Nehru, a Kashmiri
himself took the
issue to UNO.
Apparently with
the advice of Lord
Mountbatten,
Nehru referred J&K
issue to the U.N.
Security Council on
1 January, 1948.
Kashmir Issue @ UNO
India accusedPakistan of sending
troops into Jammu
and Kashmir besides
arming the Afridi
tribesmen to foment
law and order
situation .
Pandit Nehru is very
often blamed for
internationalizing J&Kissue which
essentially was a
domestic or bilateral
issue between India
and Pakistan.
Along with Israeli-Palestine conflict &
Korean Peninsula crisis
dividing North- South
Korea, Kashmir issue
became the first sort of
crisis the United Nations
confronted soon after
the Second World War.
68 years have passed
since the J&K issue wasdebated in the UNO &
yet the conflict
continues to elude any
solution.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
24/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
The U.N involvement in the
Kashmir Conflict internationalized
the issue and lasted for around 23
years (1948-72)
Led to Indo-Pak Simla Agreement
which India chooses to be the
point for future negotiation and
Pakistan chooses to ignore.
The United Nations passed a
series of resolutions on Kashmir
which was advisory in nature.
After the Indo-Pak war of 1965, the
U.N engagement with Kashmir moved
at a slow pace till the 3rd Pakistan-
India war of 1971.
Followed by Pakistan’s defeat in the
1971 war, the UN involvement ended
with the signing of the Simla
Agreement in 1972.
1972 Agreement emphasized on an
Indo-Pak bilateral framework to solve
the Kashmir imbroglio and kept the
U.N out of the negotiation process.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
25/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
However, this time, the international politicalenvironment, Cold War and the ‘Political Realism’
orientation of the times not only affected but
seriously influenced the nature and context of
the conflict which is evident in Pakistan’s India
policy even today.
China Factor
1. Hoping to squeeze India with Chinese support,
Pakistan had ceded land in Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir to China.
2. Under the Pakistan-China boundary agreement
of March 3, 1963, Pakistan had ceded Trans
Karakoram Tract to China and had hoped that
Chinese support in their war with India shall
neutralize Indian ability.
Pakistan’s Strategic Miscalculation
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
26/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Also, by this time, Pakistan as
a member of various Western
military alliances had
benefited from American aid
and military equipment.
Pakistan’s strategic relevance
for Washington as a base
against Soviet Union had
clearly increased.
Pakistan was politically stable
and economically comparable
with India’s economic profile
Pakistan’s International Alliances Factor
1. Pakistan has remained a strategic
partner of the United States from the
beginning.
2. Pakistan is associated with the United
States through four mutual security
arrangements.
3. In May 1954, Pakistan signed the
Mutual Defense Assistance
Agreement with the United States.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
27/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Same year it became a member of SEATOalong with the United States, Britain, France,
Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New
Zealand.
In 1955, Pakistan joined the Baghdad Pact
(renamed as CENTO), another mutual
defense organization, with Britain, Turkey,
Iran and Iraq and in the process has been
sometimes termed as "America's mosttrusted ally in Asia."
It is the only Asian country which is a
member both of SEATO and CENTO
The Southeast Asia Treaty
Organization (SEATO) was
an international
organization for collective
defense in Southeast Asia.
Created by the Southeast
Asia Collective Defense
Treaty, or Manila Pact,
was signed in September
1954 in Manila,
Philippines.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
28/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
1. On the other hand, India’s Non Aligned policy andleadership in the 1950s and 1960s had set
Washington’s relation with India in ambivalence.
2. India’s apprehension and refusal to participate in the
international bipolarity, Pandit Nehru’s non-aligned
approach and India’s initiative in the Asian non-
aligned conference at Bandung 1955 had left
Washington reasonably suspicious of India’s foreign
policy directions and objective.
3. In the regional military balance of power equation
therefore, Washington certainly was not an ally and at
the same time, Soviet support for the same reason of
non-aligned character was also a matter of
speculation.
Indian Position
The Central Treaty
Organization
(CENTO), originally
known as the
Baghdad Pact or the
Middle East Treaty
Organization
(METO).
Was formed in 1955
by Iran, Iraq,Pakistan, Turkey, and
the United Kingdom.
It was dissolved in
1979.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
29/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
1. Washington however chose toremain neutral in the 1965 Indo-Pak
war was a rude shock to Pakistan and
was a turning point in the Pakistan’s
foreign policy directions.
2. The United States not only refused to
support Pakistan under the terms of
the 1954 Agreement of Cooperation,
but issued a statement of Washington’s neutrality and further,
cut off military supplies to Pakistan
which Pakistan called it as friend’s
betrayal.
AmericanNeutrality
&
Warning to China
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
30/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Additionally, Washingtonseems to have warned China
against a possible war front
with India.
Specter
of
Vietnam
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
31/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Instead of Washington’s support,Iran, Indonesia, and especially
China gave political support to
Pakistan during the war.
China during the course had also
cautioned India of violation of
Chinese territory by Indian troops
which alarmed India of Chinese
direct involvement in the war.
India-Indonesia had excellent pre
historic and post independence
relations.
Pakistan’s Triple Squeeze Approach
‘China – Pakistan
– Indonesia’
Referred as the
‘Triple Squeeze’ had
indeed createdIndian
apprehensions.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
32/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
However, Indonesia equally had good
relations with Islamic Pakistan and
apparently strategized during the course of
the war to open a naval attack on Andaman
Islands.
In the 1965 war, Indonesia offered Pakistan
to send their navy to attack the Andaman
and Nicobar islands to divert attention from
the West Pakistan war effort.
They did send boats with missiles, but these
could only get there after the war ended on
Sep. 22, 1965.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
33/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
On the other side, Iran as a member of CENTO alongwith Pakistan had also created similar ‘Pakistan –
China – Iran trio’ squeeze against non-aligned India.
Most striking was the attitude of the Soviet
Union.
Its post-Khrushchev leadership, rather than rallying
reflexively to India's side, adopted a neutral
position.
Ultimately USSR provided the good offices at
Tashkent, which led to the January 1966 Tashkent
Declaration that restored the status quo ante.
Role of Iran&
Soviet Union
Multilateral
Positioning &
De-positioning
&Washington’s
Neutrality
Helped India in the
1965 war
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
34/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
First, the political viability of West
Pakistan ruling over Bengali speaking
and far away located East Pakistan was
incongruous.
East Pakistan joined Pakistan based on
two nation Indo-Pak religious divide.
As a result of this asymmetry, East
Pakistan’s political representation &
their rightful economic share were
appropriated by West Pakistan.
1971 War & Creation of Bangladesh
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
35/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Second, any development in
East Pakistan had direct bearing
on India including large number
of refugee inflow.
Third, close to three decades of
cold war unfolding, any
development and war buildupin the Indian subcontinent had
all possible international
ramifications.
1971 Indo-Pak
War: Cold war in
the Subcontinent
The indo-Pak war
of 1971 had three
prominentsegments.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
36/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Year Spending on
West
Pakistan(Cr.Rs)
Spending on
East Pakistan
(Cr.Rs)
Net Spending %
of total
expenditure
1950/51-
54/55
1,129 524 31.7
1955/56-59/60
1,655 524 24.01960/61-
64/65
3,355 1,404 29.5
1965/66-
69/70
5,195 2,141 29.2
Total 11,334 4,593 28.8Source: Reports of the Advisory Panels for the 4th Five Year
Plan 1970-75, Vol. I, published by the Planning Commission of
Pakistan
Marginalization
of East Bengal
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
37/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
West Pakistan viewed the Bengali Muslimresidents of East Pakistan as insufficiently
militaristic, insufficiently Muslim, and excessively
influenced by Hindu Indian culture.
And by the local Bengali Hindu population (whichcomprised 13% of the population of East
Pakistan and totaled about 10 million residents
by 1971.)
The Western Pakistani regime dissolved the
elected government in East Pakistan (Bengal) in1954 & prevented elections for the next four
years.
In 1971 the army prevented the convening of the
national Pakistani parliament.
Pak Marginalization
1. What followed this
crackdown was a series of
human misery.
2. Millions of Bangladeshi
refugees fleeing to Indianside leading to Pakistan’s
third and 13days war with
India that started on 3,
December 1971 and
culminated on the finally anddecisive surrender of Pakistan
on 16 December 1971
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
38/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
In the 60's Pak regime imposed a ban and censorship of thetransmission and distribution of poems written by Rabindranath Tagore.
It is reported that on February 22nd 1971 Yahya Khan said the following
to a group of generals:
“We must kill three million of them, and the rest will eat out of the
palm of our hand”.
Yahya Khan appointed a new military governor for East Pakistan
(Bengal), General Tikka Khan, who declared immediately after taking
office that he would carry out a “final solution.” He even threatened to
kill four million people in 48 hours.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
39/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
The killings began on March 25th, 1971.
The West Pakistan army, along with
reinforcements, set out on a cleansing
campaign targeting East Pakistani
intellectuals and students, Bengals,Hindus, and urban workers.
The military campaign against cities and
towns not only led to large-scale civiliancasualties, but also displaced 30 million
people from cities into the countryside,
while another 10 million East Pakistanis
(Bengalis) fled to India.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
40/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
India actively participated tosupport Bangladesh through
Bangladesh Mukti Bahini.
However, in spite of sufficient
ground and provocation, Indiaresisted being the first aggressor.
Only when Pakistan opened a front
against India in the northern front
of Punjab and Kashmir andlaunched an air attack on a number
of Indian airfields, including
Ambala, Amritsar in Indian side of
Punjab and Udhampur in J&K;
Bilateral War & High Table Cold War Diplomacy
India responded with a
formidable three pronged
retaliation strategy which
involved air attack, naval
blockade and army assault.
Finally the war ended in
only thirteen days followed
by Pakistani surrender andSimla Accord.
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
41/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger had from the
beginning sympathized with Pakistan and taken position to
restrain India to the tune of even joining the war if needed and
encouraging China to open aggression to neutralize India.
In July 1971 Henry Kissinger had a stopover at New Delhi on hissecret mission to China where he apparently encouraged China
to open aggression against India and promised Washington’s
support to such possible Chinese war adventure
Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Gandhi apparently invited India’sthe then Chief of Army General Sam Manekshaw to join her in
the breakfast in full military uniform and to the surprise of
Manekshaw, US Secretary of State Kissinger was also present in
the breakfast table.
War & International Diplomacy
American
Response
Kissinger-
Mrs. Gandhi
Breakfast
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
42/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Apparently, in spite of Kissinger’s adamant anti-Indian position, Mrs. Gandhi seemed to have
clarified that India has to take a decisive step if
the Pakistanis continue the genocide in East
Pakistan .
Pakistan’s genocide in East Pakistan had also
divided American administrations perception of
how Washington should respond to the crisis.
Nixon within his administration had faced a
virtual revolt from his diplomats with the entire
State Department team based in Dhaka writing
the so-called Blood Telegram
Divided Opinion
in USAdministration
Blood
Telegrams
from Dhaka
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
43/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
During the course of war building, theAmerican strong anti-Indian position and
even use of abusive languages to Indian
leadership and country
Finally led to American and British direct
naval participation in the war to corner India.
Washington dispatched of the US aircraft
carrier USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal to
try to intimidate the Indian government are
adequately documented and chronicled by
many authors
US aircraft
carrier “USS
Enterprise” in
Bay of Bengal
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
44/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Meanwhile, Mrs. Gandhi in her diplomatic zeal and
stateswomen spirit and with absolute sensitivity to
international protocol and public opinion opened a diplomatic
mobilization in Europe.
Meanwhile, Anthony Mascarenhas - a Goa born Karachi based
journalist who was an eye witness to Pakistan’s genocide in theEast Bengal escaped to England and published in Sunday Times
the eye witness account of atrocities which virtually changed
the European and world opinion and exposed Pakistan’s
notoriety and crimes in Bengal
Indian Opinion Building
JP in
Europe
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
45/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
While the international public opinion and India’s diplomatic
buildup helped India create a favorable climate for a possible
armed solution, neutralizing American, British and Chinese
posture still needed dependable strategic axis.
At this critical juncture therefore Mrs. Gandhi turned to the Soviet
Union.
Indo - USSR friendship and engagement that would define as an
important foreign policy instrument and paradigm of India in the
next two decades to come was to be inked during this period.
Non-aligned India, at this testing time of war strategically,
signed on 9 August 1971 the “Indo-Soviet Treaty
of Peace Friendship and Cooperation” to neutralizethe emerging Washington – British – Beijing – Islamabad axis and
defend India’s security and vital geopolitical interests.
Indo-Soviet strategic Collaboration
Neutralizing
American – British -
Chinese
India Moves
from Non-
Aligned to Sovietaligned Space
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
46/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Indo-Soviet Treaty provided the strategic
depth to India and in the actual run to the war,
Soviet war mobilization against American and
British naval move changed the course of war
in favour of India.
Given the Soviet involvement, China also
remained away from the war.
Sri Lanka during the war process had only
allowed Pakistan war planes to refuel in
Colombo which indicated Sri Lankan sympathy
with Pakistan.
Indo-Soviet Treatyof Friendship &
Cooperation
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
47/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Simla Accord
The cost of war was heavy on
Pakistan. Pakistan lost half its
navy, one fourth of its Air Force
and a third of its army.
India took 93,000 Prisoners of
War (POW) that includedPakistani soldiers as well as some
of their East Pakistani
collaborators.
Pakistan lost the war and aUnited Nations brokered peace
agreement popularly known as
Simla Agreement concluded the
war but started the next phase of
Indo-Pak engagement
The Simla Agreement signed by Prime
Minister Indira Gandhi and President
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan on 2nd July
1972 was much more than a peace treaty.
seeking to reverse the consequences of
the 1971 war (i.e. to bring about
withdrawals of troops and an exchange of
PoWs).
It was a comprehensive blue print for good
neighbourly relations between India and
Pakistan. Under the Simla Agreement both
countries undertook to abjure conflict and
confrontation
and to work towards the establishment of
durable peace, friendship and cooperation
8/17/2019 Indo-Pak Class PPT
48/52
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus
Coping with Nuclearization of South Asia
The latest report by the Bulletin of AtomicScientists highlights the future on nuclear
weapons in this region.
The report also claims that Pakistan had
around 100 nuclear weapons (warheads)around 2011 and by now their nuclear arsenal
has added approximately 20 more warheads.
Within the next ten years their overall
nuclear inventory could reach to 220 to 250
warheads
India explicitly clarified India’s nuclear capability as deterrent in nature.
As a responsible nuclear power proclaimed the principle of ‘No First Use’ (NFU)
as a basis of India’s nuclear doctrine
Pokhran Test 1998.
2003, Govt. of India’s
Formal ‘Nuclear Doctrine’
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Having lost 3 Wars and subsequent Kargil War, Pakistansince late 1980s has launched a Proxy War or Jihadi
War against India.
Jehadi war has taken away Pakistan from governance
orientation to hosting international terrorism which
now is proving to be suicidal.
Next Phase
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Guns & Governance
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Defence Budget % of GDP 1988 -2010
China Japan India Pakistan Sri LankaSource: Compiled from World Bank
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0
2
46
8
10
12
1 9 9 5
9 6
9 7
9 8
9 9
2 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 0
Health Expenditure % of GDP 1995-2010
India China Pakistan Sri Lanka Japan
Source: Compiled from World Bank Data
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Both India & Pakistan must shift from their animosity & focuson Good Governance
Political Realism & Balance of Power strategy has not delivered.
They must there fore shift to Political Liberalism and Economic
Neoclassicism approach and focus on economic growth and
such tools to develop their own country.
Conclusion