Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction

IPOVAI Project Proposal

Dr. Prof. Fangli QiaoFirst Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China

11-13 May 2015 , Phuket, Thailand

NEW PROJECT PROPOSAL

Outline

1. Scientific background2. Objective 3. Project contents4. Outcome5. Working plan6. Relationship with on-going projects

1. Scientific backgroundWhy we need this project?

Science Drivers for IPOVAI

Monsoons system

Tropical Cyclones

Strong interannual variations and

complicated ocean circulation system

While lack of forecasting system

Cyclone

MJOIndian Ocean Dipole

Indian Ocean is the most poorly investigated region except the southern ocean

ENSO

ITF

SAM

EASM

NWPM

AM

Monsoon circulation and precipitation in Asian-Australian Region (Boreal summer minus boreal winter)

Monsoon: derived from the Arabic word for season

Character: Seasonal reversal of the wind direction

Low prediction ability on Monsoon

The prediction ability based on 5

climate models（Wang et al, 2004）

6

Based on 25 CMIP5 climate models

Low ability on precipitation prediction

The monsoon onset is too late

Summer Asian monsoon is too

weak while the NWPM too strong

Sperber et al,2012, CD

Tropical Cyclones

It has been a great challenge for accurate prediction of Typhoon/Hurricane (1990-2010)

8

Rappaport et al, 2012, BAMS

.

Tragic disaster by super typhoon Haiyan, more than 4000 died，11.8 M people affected.Accurate Typhoon prediction is urgently needed

2. Objective

Project objectives

Get new findings on air-sea interaction through in-situ observation by considering surface wave;

Improve our scientific understanding on the role of surface wave in air-sea interaction in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, and get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes especially for high wind conditions;

Improve the prediction ability of typhoon intensity and Asian monsoon system.

What’s new in IPOVAI: Surface wave

To identify the effects of surface wave in air-sea interaction, based on our previous research on wave’s effects in ocean mixing; To get new parameterization on air-sea fluxes; To establish new Typhoon and monsoon prediction system.

Along 35N transect in Aug.

World Ocean Atlas

With wave-induce mixing

Without wave effects

Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic

Along 35S transect in Feb.

35N

35S

3-D global ocean circulation models

Along 35N transect in Aug.

World Ocean Atlas

With wave-induce mixing

Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic

Along 35S transect in Feb.

Vertical Temperature Distributions

Withoutwave-induce mixing

Data

With BvNo Bv

Bv effect

Water vapor transport in Australian-Asian Monsoon area

Song and Qiao et al, 2012, JAS

3. Project contents

Concept model of IPOVAI Project

Forecasting system

Advanced Observation

Scientific research

Air-Sea interaction

18

2015/5/23

Multi-scale Interaction Predictability

Northern Indian Ocean

CirculationAir-Sea Interaction

Typhoon

Mechanism

Analysis

Dynam

ic Process

Mechanism and Model

Evaluation and Diagnosis of Predictability

Dynam

ic Process

Mechanism

analysis

Propagation of climate signal

Inter-Ocean Exchange

Monsoon

Western Pacific Circulation, Warm Pool

MomentumFluxes

HeatFluxes

MassFluxes

Albedo whitecapping

waves MIZ Extent

Wave dependent momentum flux

e.g., Janssen

& Viterbo,

1997

Sensible and Latent Heate.g.,

Veron et al., 2008

Wave driven turbulence and langmuir circulations

e.g., Babanin et al., 2006, 2009Qiao et al., 2003

Marine Aerosol Production

e.g., O’Dowd & de Leeuw,

2007

Bubble injection by breaking waves

e.g., Woolf, 1993

e.g., Frouin et al., 2001

e.g., Squire et al., 1995

Interface between ocean and atmosphere is critical because of air-sea fluxes

More effort should be conducted for the observation over air-sea interface

IIOE 50th Anniversary Planning:

Spearheaded by IOGOOS, IOP and SIBERSupported by SCOR and UNESCO/IOCInternational planning committee formed, the IIOE-2 Reference Group

This project can also contribute to IIOE-2 as contribution from WESTPAC

Workshops/Symposium We would like to organize an Open Science meeting in late 2015 if approved by IOC/WESTPAC, and annually workshops will be organized ; To identify the common interest and communicate on scientific progresses, generate the annual report.

New Generation Model Development New coupled models on Monsoon and Typhoon will be developed through considering new parameterization of air-sea fluxes, especially the effects of surface wave.

In Situ Observation The needed observation in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific will be discussed during Open Science Meeting and will be addressed in Science/Implementation plan of IPOVAI, if approved.

Capacity Building Will be combined with the annual training course organized by the UNESCO/IOC-ODC center.

4. Outcome

Outcome

Advance our understanding on the internal dynamical features of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean natural variability, especially the role of surface wave in air-sea fluxes.

Expected update methodology emerging from this project, which are relevant to typhoon and monsoon prediction, will become useful tools for the numerical modelers.

The air-sea coupled models on Typhoon and monsoon will be shared among all participants.

Steering Committee

26

Dr. Fangli Qiao, First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China Dr. Dake Chen, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China Dr. Alexander V. Babanin, Swinburne University of Technology, Australia Dr. Fredolin Tangang, National University of Malaysia (UKM), Malaysia Dr. Somkiat Khokiattiwong, Phuket Marine Biological Center, Thailand Dr. Shangping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Dr. Le Dinh Mau, Institute of Oceanography, Viet Nam Others are welcomed

TOR of Steering Committee

27

Review the regional concerns on IPOVAI, and identify the project requirements; Promote efficient and cost-effective implementation of this Project and prepare recommendations to the IOC Sub-Commission for the Western Pacific; Ensure effective interaction and communication with other potential international organizations, such as CLIVAR and SCOR etc; Identify the resources necessary to meet IPOVAI project needs.

IPOVAI will also be a strong support and implementation of IPON (Indo-Pacific Ocean Observations and Services Network)

5. Working Plan

We hope the project could be during 2015-2020, and working plan for 2015-2017 is as follows

Activities Objectives Expected outcomes Date and Place

Workshop Communication for the

scientific outcome

Identify the common interest ,

generate the annual report

One Open Science meeting and two

workshops will be organized in

2015,2016,2017 in China and

WESTPAC states

In situ observation

Collect data on air-sea

interaction

The database 2016,2017 in Indian Ocean and western

Pacific

Capacity building Training the early careers

The skilled researcher

2015-2017, annually in China

Model develop and transplant

New coupled and ocean

models

Coupled model In China and WESTPAC member

states

Estimated budgets

Three millions USD are now available from PI, supported by international cooperation projects of State Oceanic administration and NFSC. Thirty thousands USD from IOC/WESTPAC are

expected for WS and CB. Contribution from participants are highly

welcomed.

6. Relationship with on-going projects

The on-going projects of OFS and MOMSEI are solid base for the coming IPOVAI, and OFS is ocean forecasting system based on ocean model, sharing data and experience on model development;MOMSEI has focused on observation and process study, which can also do data sharing. In southeast Asia, OFS will establish the ocean forecasting ability, and IPOVAI can initiate the regional climate prediction.

If IPOVAI can be approved by IOC/WESTPAC, we will:

To organize a working group to draft IPOVAI science/ implementation plan; To organize an Open Science Meeting in late 2015 to discuss, refine and approve draft IPOVAI science/ implementation plan; To seek the possibility to endorse this project by other leading international organization/programm such as WCRP.

More effort to understand, protect ocean and climate, also to guarantee our better future …

Thanks!