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Indicators of climate change on

ecosystems and biodiversity

Prof. Dr. Rik LeemansBureau of Environmental

Assessment

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Past and Future Rapid Environmental Change

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General conclusions by Huntley et al., 1997.

Response to rapid climate change is species-specific and involves spatial and evolutionary mechanisms. There are thresholds and magnitudes of change to which organisms respond with either or both mechanisms

Regional variation is profound. Sometimes the regional trend differ from the global trend. Biodiversity is reshaped according to regional environmental characteristics

Major species extinctions during the Quarternary occurred during periods of rapid climate change

High altitude areas, coastal areas, isolated islands (high levels of endemism) and continetal ‘cul-de-sac’ areas were and will be the most vulnerable

It seems certain that future CC will have substantial impact upon regional and global biodiversity.

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Stresses on Ecosystems

biodiversity

Vitality

Soil conservation

Waterconservation

Carbon cycle

productivity

Diversity of seral stagesand stand structure Trophic

network integrity

Physical and biotic stabilityEquilibrium

among supply/demandof essential resources

Continued carbonsequestration

Resilience

Sustainable

Reduction in sizeof components

Systemretrogression

Reduced carbonstorage

Changes in species diversity

Change in nutrientcycling

Change in productivity

Non-Sustainable

Exoticspecies

Managementpractices climate Air pollution

Extremeevents

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Causes of changes in biodiversity

bio

div

ers

ity

timepath

Habitat destruction

exotic species

overexploitation and degradation

pollution

fragmentationclimate change

protection

restoration

sustainable use ?

?

Linkages and Trade-offs are Real

Sectoral assessments are too narrow

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Combining climate change and other global change aspects: Impacts on

biodiversityBoreal forests

Savannas

Land useCO2

concentrationsNitrogen

deposition

Climate change Alien species

Temperate forests

Tropical forests

1

Arctic regions1

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NDVI in January

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NDVI in February

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NDVI in March

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NDVI in April

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NDVI in May

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NDVI in June

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NDVI in July

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NDVI in August

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NDVI in September

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NDVI in October

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NDVI in November

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NDVI in December

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Changes in length and start of growing season

Length

Start

Start of growing season after the summer drought

Increase in the length of the growing season

Increase in summer droughts

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Change in fire-proneness (i.e. the area of no current dry season but one in the

future)

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0

Change in global mean temperature

Perc

enta

ge o

f th

e re

gion Latin America

Af rica

I ndonesian Archipelago

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An example: Changing ecosystems at a global mean temperature

increase of 3oC

Ecosystems that change are coloured.

Improvement

Improvement: More trees and higher productivity

Change: needle-leafed forests becomes broad-

leafed forest

Change: Different species composition and landscapes

Degradation

Degradation: Fewer trees and lower productivityExtinction: Large habitat decline and irreversible change

Extinction

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Dieback is fast, regrowth is slow

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Impact on the yield of corn

Less

No

More

The regional yield can change: some regions improve while others decline (mainly driven by

drought)

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How do risks evolve globally?

Impacts are expressed as the percentage area affected. The reference is the current area (crops) or the total amount of land (ecosystems).

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

Ecosystems Yielddecrease

Yieldincrease

Extentdecrease

Extentexpansion

1 oC 2 oC 3 oC

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1 2 3 4 5

Past Future

0

Risk to Some Risk to ManyRisks to unique & valuable systems

Increase Large increaseRisk of extreme weather events

Negative for some regions

Negative formost regions

Distribution of impacts

Net Negativefor most metrics

Positive or negative Market impacts, Majority of People adversely affected

Aggregate impacts

Very low HigherRisks from future large-scale discontinuities

The reasons for concern

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IPCC SRES scenarios and reason for concerns for dangerous

impacts

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KEY

Condition

Changing Capacity

Environmental Scorecard

Source: Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, WRI, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank

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Driver

Response

HumanImpact

MA will address impacts of multiple drivers

IPCC

Climate Change

Energy Sector Biodiversity Food

Supply Water

Health Economics Social

Ecosystems

Health Economics Social

ClimateChange

Land CoverChange

BiodiversityLoss

NutrientLoading Etc.

MA

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The MA assessment frameworkScale 3

Scale 2

Demand

Scale 1

Primary Drivers• Demographic Change• Economic Change • Social and Political

Change• Technological change• Lifestyle and Behavioral

change

Proximate Drivers

•Climate Change•Land Use & Cover

Change•Factor inputs•Pollution•Nutrient Release•Species Introductions•Harvest

Ecosystems & their Services•Supporting (Biodiversity and

ecosystem processes)•Provisioning (Food,

water,fiber, fuel, other biological products)

•Enriching (Cultural, aesthetic)

Wellbeing & Poverty Reduction

•Health and disease•Environmental Security•Cultural Security•Economic Security•Equity

= Strategies and Interventions

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Thanks for your attention

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An example of the monthly exceedance indicator

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An example of the monthly exceedance indicator

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Global exceedance

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Regional Exceedance

Higher temperature increase but broad temperature ranges

(especially in the winter): all ecosystems affected but not throughout the

year

Medium temperature increase but less

broad temperature ranges:

all ecosystems affected during most

of the year

Small temperature increase but narrow

temperature ranges: almost all ecosystems affected during most of

the year

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Spatial pattern of exceedance in 2050