India’s sustainable development

opportunities & the potential for green jobs

International Conference on

JOBS FOR DEVELOPMENT: CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS

Saptarshi Das

Research Associate, TERI

1-2 December 2014

New Delhi

Contextualising India’s energy growth story

• Need for rapid and inclusive economic growth; provision of

better life to its people

– Much more energy and infrastructure required

• Implications of pursuing different paths can vary

significantly depending on the technology and policy

choices that the country chooses to adopt

• Need for holistic evaluation of all the costs and co-benefits

that different energy development paths can offer

– wider distributional effects, energy access across sections of

society and additional employment generation possibilities

Role of renewables

• Renewable energy technologies can play

a key role in contributing positively to

India’s energy security

– providing greater access to clean energy

– contributing positively to local as well as

global environment

– Enhancing energy security

– provide opportunities for improving

employment prospects

Growing recognition of the potential for

job creation with Green tech • RE already accounts for over 2.3 million jobs worldwide (UNEP estimate)

• The EU has highlighted the potential of RE to create new jobs, especially in rural

and isolated areas (European Parliament and of the Council, 2009).

• Creating employment opportunities was an important driver in creation of the

German Renewable Energy Act– Germany’s fast-growing RE industries have motivated policymakers there to maintain strong

promotion policies. A major target of the Greek government’s RE promotion policies is to

strengthen employment

– Within 2 years, large increase in number of people employed in RE jobs

• Numerous governments have included substantial spending on clean energy

technologies in their stimulus packages that were put in place in response to the

financial and economic crisis

• US studies: – For every USD 2005, 1 billion spent on green fiscal measures had the potential to create about

33,000 jobs

– a green stimulus of USD2005 90.7 billion could create roughly 2 million jobs.

– The Council of Economic Advisors to the US administration projects that the USD2005 82

billion spending on clean energy included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will

create or safeguard 720,000 job-years through 2012.

Growing recognition of the potential for

job creation with Green tech

• ‘Global Green New Deal’ could in the long run create more than 34 million jobs in low-

carbon transportation and related activities alone (Barbier, 2009)

• Bioenergy generates more jobs per unit of energy delivered than other energy

sources, largely due to feedstock production, especially in developing countries and

rural areas (FAO, 2010b).

• China:– Wind power industry (including power generation and turbine manufacturing) created around 40,000

direct jobs annually between 2006 and 2010

– Beijing’s ambitious metro‐system plan, is estimated to generate more than 437,000 jobs each year

(Pan et al., 2011)

• City level: Gussing (Austria): renewable profile has attracted 60 companies wanting

to run on clean energy, creating at least 1,000 new jobs (Droege, 2009).

• Many national green growth strategies, (China, Korea, Japan, the EU and the USA

(UNEP, 2010), have stressed the deployment of RE as an important contribution to

job creation

• Rural development is also a key driver for RE policies in India, such as the country’s

support for biofuels (Bansal, 2009).

India’s Future Challenges

• Concerns of:

– Energy access

– Energy import vulnerabilities

– Climate change

• What then are the options & what are the

implications of adopting alternative

choices to fuel the country’s energy

needs?

Scenario based illustrative projections

Scenarios

• Bottom up integrated analysis framework

involving TERI’s MARKAL model for India

• It compares two scenarios-

– Reference Energy Scenario ( REF), which

considers current trends and policies projects

these in to the future as determinants of supply

and demand.

– 100% Renewable Energy Scenario (REN), which

examines possibility and energy mix of a scenario

that approaches 100% renewable energy in the

primary commercial energy supply by 2050

AND WE FIND……

Primary commercial energy supply

• PCES is 30% lesser by 2031 and 70% lesser by 2051 in the REN scenario vis-à-vis the REF

• In REF, fossil fuels contribute to 90% of PCES throughout the modelling period, while in REN, renewables contribute 90% by 2051

Generation Capacity

– In the REF, electricity generation continues to be majorly (~70%)

dependent on fossil fuels

– Share of renewable based capacity (inclusive of large hydro) drops

from 27% (2011) to 21% (2051) in REF while renewables contribute to

~100% of the electricity generation in REN

– Electricity generation capacity is 50% higher in the REN due to lower

availability factors of renewable technologies

Generation

• Electricity generated is lower in REN scenario through out the projection period

• Efficiency improvements reduce electricity consumption

Demand

• The energy demand in the REN scenario is 58% of the BAU scenario by 2051

• Industry remain the highest consumer of energy followed by the transport sector

Demand sectors

• 90% of the transport demand is met through bio fuels and the rest through electricity

• Solar Thermal play an important role in industrial heating (~35%)

• 10% of the energy inputs is still provided by coal where coal acts as feedstock and is not replaceable

Demand sectors

• Residential sector is heavily electrified (~66%), the rest 34% is traditional biomass meeting rural cooking demand

• Agriculture and commercial sectors are almost entirely electrified

• Biofuels contribute 12% (mainly for tractors/harvesters) in the agriculture sector

CO2 Emission

• CO2 emission drops drastically in the REN scenario to 25% of the 2011 level by 2051

• Per capita emission levels grow from 1.43 tonne in 2011 to 3.62 tonne in 2051 in the REF scenario while it drops to 0.25 tonne in the REN scenario

Key Observations

• Aggressive efficiency improvements

– Of the order of 59 per cent – by 2051

• Fossil fuel-based plants and technologies need to

be phased out in the REN scenario much before the

end of their economic lifetime

• All renewable energy forms including solar, wind,

geothermal and ocean tidal energy resources need

to be pushed to their technical limits to achieve a

move toward a 100% REN scenario.

Key Observations

• Biofuels would need to play a key role by 2051

– They would have to account for 330Mtoe and meet 90 per cent of

the transport fuel requirement in order to move toward the REN

scenario.

• Around 10 per cent of the fuel mix would need to be met by fossil

fuels for niche uses such as feedstock in industry, for which there is

currently no replacement

• Concentrated solar thermal technologies (that are still in the R&D

phase) would need to play a key role in meeting electricity needs as

well as the thermal demand in industries (and also to fulfill the heat

requirement for temperatures below 700°C)

Main Inferences

• Directional path of the Renewable energy

Scenario most attractive, balances

multiple considerations of

– minimising energy imports

– optimising use of India’s substantial

renewable energy resources cost

effectively, and

– efficient use of capital.

Macro Inferences

• Key transformations with respect to electricity:

– Substitution of fossil based thermal energy with

electrical energy to the extent technologically

possible across all sectors of the economy (eg.

transport)

– Generation of electricity from renewable sources

– Freezing coal based capacity additions to

currently committed levels and phasing out

obsolete plants.

– Move to decentralised electricity generation on a

large scale for rural electrification

Macro Inferences

• Key transformations with respect to the oil sector

– Enhanced capacities in the railways, mass transit and public

transport systems.

– Substituting petrol and diesel driven vehicles with hybrid

and battery operated vehicles

– Maximising the substitution of petro-fuels with bio-fuels

• Key transformations with respect to the coal sector:

– Accelerating utilisation of India’s domestic coal resources

– Rejection of additional thermal power generation capacity

based on coal

Macro Inferences

• Significant short term gains (nearly 30%) are possible by increasing

energy efficiencies along the entire value chain.

• What India does in the short term would pave the way for realising

its long term opportunities:

– creating a comfort level with emerging technologies

(manufacturing and market creation experience at appropriate

scales, human resources, regulatory frameworks etc.);

– investing in identified R,D&D needs

– creating a conducive environment for transformational changes

• awareness generation, education, appropriate policies/regulations for

bringing about behavioural changes

Scope for Green jobs

• Green Jobs are a prerequisite to achieve green economy

• Climate Change Challenge calls for large transitions & offers several opportunities for direct & indirect employment generation, skill development, new/green job opportunities

• Scope of green jobs: – Mission on Solar & other renewables including biofuels

– Green Buildings

– Public transport & infrastructure development

– Energy efficiency

– LABL

Employment Estimates in the Renewable Energy sector,

Global and Selected Countries, 2006.

Renewable Energy

Source

World/ Selected Countries Employment

Wind world 300,000

Solar PV world 115,000

Solar thermal China, Europe, USA 624,000+

Biomass/ Biofuels Brazil, USA, China,

Germany

1,174,000

Hydro Power Europe, USA 39,000

Geothermal USA, Germany 25,000

Renewable , combined 2,277,000

Source: UNEP Background paper on green Jobs

Other Estimates

• India could generate 900,000 jobs by 2025 in biomass gasification of

which 300,000 would be in the manufacturing of stoves and 600,000

in areas such as processing into briquettes and pellets and the fuel

supply chain (UNEP, 2008)

• National Mission on Decentralized Biomass Energy has a potential

to create around 10 million jobs in ten years

• According to UNEP (2008) the introduction of 6,100 new CNG buses

in New Delhi between late 2007 and 2009 was expected to create

18,000 new jobs.

LaBL - Few facts

1.6 billion people

– lack access to electricity; 1 in 4 are in India

76 million rural households

– of the total 138 million in India have no access to electricity

65 million

– of the above use kerosene for lighting

2.3 billion litres per year

– Kerosene used for lighting by 65 million households @ average monthly consumption of 3 litres per household

Approx 5 million ton CO2

– emitted to the atmosphere by the above

About Rs. 70 billion

– is burnt in smoke every year in wick lamps and kerosene lanterns

Introducing LaBL – Power to Empower

• Setting up solar charging stations in villages

and renting solar lanterns to displace

kerosene lanterns and dibris for better

illumination & smoke free indoor

environment

• Providing solar lanterns to facilitate and

advance rural livelihood generation

• Identifying & training entrepreneurs to operate charging stations, provide repair & maintenance services

• Facilitating creation of energy enterprises on supply and demand side

LaBL - Prospects for Green jobs

Direct employment– LaBL has been able to generate direct livelihood for 160

entrepreneurs as charging station operators across 160

villages in 12 states of India, of which 20% are women

– LaBL is setting up Technology Resource Centres (TRCs)

for every 20 charging station that would cater to after

sales services in these villages. LaBL envisages setting

up 40,000 charging stations by 2012 40,000 green

jobs (40,000 entrepreneurs)

Indirect opportunities

• Long term implications; extended working hours, livelihood creation, economic enhancement, local employment– 15%-20% of the lanterns rented are

used for other livelihood options like weaving, sewing, vending, running tuition centres etc.

– Of the 8000 lanterns disseminated so far, 1200-1600 lanterns are being used for these activities.

– LaBL envisages disseminating 2,000,000 solar lanterns by 2012 3,00,000 – 4,00,000 lanterns likely to be used for other livelihood activities

by 2012.

Green Buildings

• Annual increase in demand 5.4 billion units needing

5500 MW per 5 year plan period

• Green buildings savings

– 30% in residential buildings

– 40 % in commercial buildings

• Investing in Green Buildings will reduce subsidies

– Lower demand for diesel based captive generation

– Avoid high-cost traded electricity

• Re-directing this savings as a sustainability incentive

would cover 30 – 70 % of incremental costs

Other areas

• Solar components and other renewables -

Jobs in R&D, innovative technology

development and adaptation to suit Indian

requirements

• Public transport and infrastructure

development

• Greater involvement of private sector/

corporates & businesses

Conclusion

• Creation of green jobs/ cleaner livelihood opportunities

is imperative to achieve a sustainable socio economic

growth.

• Creation of green job in one sector of the economy has

the potential to “radiate” across large sections of

economy thus greening commensurately large sections

of the total workforce.

• India should holistically focus on creating green jobs in

various sectors of growth such as energy efficient

buildings, transportation and agriculture sector.

• Suitable policies and regulatory framework should be in

place to realize the dream of India achieving

sustainable development.

Thank You