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Benchmark Mineral IntelligenceIndia’s role in the lithium-ion battery supply chain
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Summer 2020
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This is India
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This is also India
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Transportation in India
Transportation in India is a diverse and complicated topic with trends that differ from comparable countries (ex. China, USA etc.)
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Railroads
Fourth largest railway system and second busiest global
railway system
More details on upcoming pages
Automotive
Low costflight carriers(Vistara, IndiGo etc.)
Fastest growing global aviation market
Bottom-decile global airports per capita
Highest global urban passenger density
Even though India is on pace to be the most-populous country in the world, its automotive market is underpenetrated
Source: Rho Motion 6
▪ 2019 Vehicles sold: ~4M
▪ Expected 2040 Vehicles sold: ~6.5M
▪ If vehicle sales grew at current GDP rates, expected 2040 vehicles sold would be closer to ~16M
0
2.5M
5M
7.5M
203720182015 2016 2017 20362019 2020 2021 20352022 20252023 20312024 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2032 2033 2034 2038 2039 2040
Passenger & Light Duty Medium Truck (6-16t)Bus & Coach (6t+) Heavy Truck (16t+)
Total Market – Vehicle units sold
India’s consumer vehicle market is defined by two-wheelers, which has emerged as the primary transportation mode for consumers across most income brackets
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Domestic Market Share for 2019 – Passenger & Light Duty
13%
80%
4%3%
Domestic automotive sales increased at ~7% CAGR between 2013-2019
Passenger Vehicles
Two WheelersThree Wheelers
Commercial Light Duty Vehicles
Source: Rho Motion
India has instituted multiple policy actions over the last 6 years to spurgreater EV adoption
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2013
NEMMP 2020 ▪ National Mission providing vision
and roadmap for faster EV adoption and manufacturing
▪ Target 6-7M EV/hybrid by 2020 which results in total liquid fuel savings of 2.2 – 2.5 MT
2015
Fast Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles (FAME India Phase 1)▪ Total incentives outlay of Rs8bn for 2
years▪ Subsequently extended through
March 2019
2019
FAME India Phase 2▪ Incentives outlay of Rs100bn
until 2022▪ Incentives for EV purchase and
also charging infrastructure▪ Goal of one charging station
every 3km x 3km grid
2019
Union Budget 2019▪ Tax deduction on loans to
purchase EVs▪ Reduce EV GST from 12%
to 5%
2017
EV@30 campaign by CEM (Clean Energy Ministerial)▪ Campaign sets a
goal of achieving 30% new EV sales by 2030 in member countries
▪ As of July 2019, the GST Council has brought down the GST rate on electric vehicles (EVs) to 5 per cent from 12 per cent and on EV Chargers from 18% to 5%
o As of Feb 2020, India is said to have around ~300 public EV chargers
▪ CBU duties range anywhere from 50-100%
The policy moves have motivated multiple incumbents and startups to push out new electrified products
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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Example Incumbents Example New Start-ups
20212010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020
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India’s Electric Grid
Renewables growth in India is undeterred by Covid-19, and is necessary for a rising middle class
Source: Ministry of Power, Government of India 11
India electricity generation – April 2019 vs. 2020 India renewables electricity generation
64,639
50,104
2,93510,908 9,366
366
138,319
62,036
39,268
2,764
13,5638,703
425
126,759
BiomassWind Solar Bagasse Small Hydro
Others Total
-4%-22%
-6%
+24%-7%
+16%
-8%
Apr-19 to Mar-20 Apr-18 to Mar-19
109
10
119
82
10
92
Generation from Renewable
sources
Generation from Conventional sources
Total
-25%
+5%
-23%
Apr-20Apr-19
Grid providers are seeking opportunities to grow solar penetration in their generation portfolios
Source: Ministry of Power, Government of India 12
Major utility-scale solar generation asset deployments , 2011-2020 (peak power – MW)
Bhadla Solar Park,Rajasthan, 2245
Pavagada Solar Park,Karnataka, 2050
Kurnool Ultra Mega Solar Park,Andhra Pradesh, 1000
Charanka Solar Park,Gujarat, 690
Rewa Ultra Mega Solar, Madhya Pradesh, 750
While electricity reliability continues to be a nagging issue in Indian infrastructure development, the situation has improved greatly in the last decade
* Ongoing year – affected by covidSource: https://powermin.nic.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india 13
Electricity supply/demand
0%
4%
8%
12%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2009-10 2019-202010-11 2016-172011-12 2015-162012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 2018-19 2020-21*
Deficit (%) Deficit Availability
C&I and dense upper-class urban areas are natural first markets to expand battery storage availability
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RuralGovernment Non-Rural Consumer
Commercial & Industrial (C&I)
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India’s Battery Supply Chain
Indian automotive applications require battery cells that are custom-tailored and differentiated from those designed for Western applications
Source: Benchmark research 16
Examples of factors that matter in optimizing Indian cell design
$/kWh cost– Reduce as much as possible via
engineering efficiency and manufacturing scale
2W/3W BMS compatibility –Less space for advanced BMS
and cooling mechanisms
Cycle life – Nearly 2.5x as compared to other major markets’ best-in-class EV
Temperature operating range –50 degrees Celsius continuous operating performance, much
higher than Western requirements
Phase change interstitial fill – To reduce battery weight
while optimizing safety
Modularity – Allows for battery swapping,
replaceability, and recyclability
India currently produces 0% of the major required chemicals for battery cell manufacturing. Meanwhile, China dominates.
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 17
62%13%
5%
16%
4%
JapanChinaFinlandCanada
Other
Battery recycling could be used to overcome the lack of relevant
materials resource in India
Mining
Chemical Processing
Cathode
Battery Cell
EV
Lithium Chemical Supply in 2018 Cobalt Chemical Supply in 2018
Spherical Graphite Supply in 2018 Nickel Raw Material Supply in 2018
26%
17%
9%8%
36%
4%
Indonesia
China
PhilippinesNew CaledoniaRussian Federation
Other
11%
29%
51%
7%2%
USA
ArgentinaChileChinaRussia
100%
China
India’s Global Market
<1%
0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
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2020 20252019 2023 202620242021
683
2022 20302027 2028
949
26
2029
12 15
368
17 21
1,706
1,272
2,289
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Projected Lithium-ion Batteries Available for Recycling in India – kilotonnes/year
Large Format LIBs for Recycling (e.g. EV batteries, MT [000s])Small Format Electronic Batteries for Recycling (e.g. consumer electronic batteries, MT [000s])
Adapted from and based on: Statista, CEIC Data, Auto Car IndiaSources: Index Mundi, Economic Times
Critical period to set up the lithium-ion battery recycling ecosystem, leveraging the moderate volumes of lithium-ion batteries available for recycling from consumer electronics and scrap/defective/damaged EV batteries
Battery recycling could overcome the lack of domestic primary resource availability
Reasons to push forward recycling strategy
Existing ‘urban mine’ source of critical materials
▪ Existing sources of spent batteries are an ‘urban mine’▪ 3C (computer, communication and
consumer electronic) applications▪ Additional upcoming lithium-ion
batteries available for recycling ▪ Growing pack manufacturing scrap▪ Future sources of spent batteries
from the electric vehicle (EV) and Energy Storage System (ESS) sectors
Limited domestic availability of critical materials
▪ India reliant on imports of critical materials
▪ Recycling can ‘close-the-loop’, providing valuable secondary critical materials to catalyze the cell and cathode manufacturing industries
Significantly larger volumes as EV and ESS batteries become spent projected to be available for recycling
Need to be prepared well in advance of ~2025 across the lithium-ion battery recycling ecosystem
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A Word of Caution on Market Entry Strategy
Foreign companies entering India have faced difficulty in market entry. The key is to find a local partner.
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Well-known struggles The interesting case of Jio Platforms
Mukesh Ambani
Mobile devices Telecom
vs.
Digital Platforms Retail
vs.
vs. vs. (now)
Digital Currency
vs.
Reach out with any questions, and download presentation
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Search “Vivas Kumar”
@VivasVK7
www.benchmarkminerals.com
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