Indian Insurance Teach-In

8/6/2019 Indian Insurance Teach-In

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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Goldman Sachs Research

Ind ian Insurance t each-in

eg ecte or too ong, mer ts a re oo

July 2011

Tabassum Inamdar Goldman Sachs India Securities +91-22-6616-9052 [email protected]

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be awarethat the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in

making their investment decision.

For Reg AC see the end of the text. For other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.


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Som e Bas ics


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Prem ium inc om e: Types of po l ic ies so ld

Types of policies sold i.e. Term/risk policies or endowment (savings product)

erm po c es s prov es pure r s cover on ea

Endowment = is savings products with risk cover/term attached

Endowment can be of two t es - ULIP or traditional roduct

ULIPs - are transparent products where a policy holder is informed about

(a) funds allocated to AUM, (b) cost allocated, (c) AMC fees, (d) othermiscellaneous charges, (e) mortality charges, (f) asset allocation

Traditional product A non-transparent product. The investment guidelinesare provided by IRDA. As per current rules, 65% of funds have to beinvested in government securities.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3


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Prem ium inc om e: Types of po l ic ies so ld

and Class i f ic a t ion d i f ferenc eTypes of policies sold i.e. Individual, group, single or regular

Single policy holder pays premiums only once. Minimum holding period is now five years

egu ar po cy o er pays prem um on regu ar n erva s e.g. quar er y, a -year y, year y e c.

Minimum policy term is now five years. Top-ups both the above policy holders can pay additional premium over and above contracted

amounts at their convenience. Now considered as single premium. Policyholder is required to buy risk.

Group term policies these are typically policies bought by companies to insure employees, will alsoinclude policies against mortgages, credit cards

Group superannuations fund based

Classifying premiums

FYP - when a new policy is sold the premium collected is classified as first year premium

Renewal premium premium income received from existing policy holders

Annualized premium equivalent (APE) FYP + 10% of single premium. Companies generally classifyall group premiums as single premium irrespective of whether this is received on regular intervals oras single premium

Minimum risk cover has to be 10 X annual premium on regular premium products and 125% of SP


policy or top-up premium exceptions are pension/annuity products


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Most po l ic y sa les now are ULIP

Ex.1: 70% of incremental sales are ULIP

94 94 96100.0%

120.0%

85

6963

90

82

70 67

77

82

88

70

80.0%

40.0%

60.0%

20.0%

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5Source: Company data.

.

Bajaj Allianz HDFC Standard Life ICICI Prudential Life Max New york Life SBI Life


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w i t h s ign i f i c an t invest m ent in equ i t ies

Ex.1: Significant investment in equity portfolio Ex.2:which has risen sharply with the rise in equity markets

Others2%

Dec-10

33.934.6 34.8

36.9

35.936.0

38.0

5,000

6,000

Equity (MarketValue)

36%

Fixed income (Bookvalue)

28.1 28.0 28.127.5

25.9

28.0

30.0

32.0

.

3,000

4,000

62%

21.4

23.8

20.0

22.0

24.0

.

0

1,000

,

Mar-08 Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09 Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10Dec-10

Equity AUM (Rs bn) % of To tal AUM (RHS)

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6Source: Life Insurance council.


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Prem ium income: Lapsa t ion and surrenders

Policy lapsation

-.

30% in the first/second year of policy. On policies sold till August 2010 insurance companies can retain the amount receivedfrom policy holder on lapsed policies and not refund the same.

New regulations permit companies to retain only a smaller amount, and this will impactmargins earned by companies. Refunds can be made only after the fifth year.

Over the long term, it is important to have lower lapsations in order to gain size/scale..

Policy surrender

Policy holders surrender policies prior to/ before maturity of the term.

Charges on surrender also are now regulated, unlike in the past when companies couldretain significant amount on surrenders.

Policy-holders are not allowed to surrender for the first five years.



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Foc us on pers is tenc y increas ing

Ex.1: Companies need to focus on persistency (13th Month FY11)

81

80

90

56

6670

53

69

40

50

60

70

thpersistency(%)

0

10

20

30

13thMo

Ex.2: Compared with this, persistency ratios are clearly high inAsia ranging between 82.3%-95.7%

BajajAllianz HDF CStandardLife ICICIPrudential

Life

KotakOldMutual

MaxNewyorkLife

RelianceLife S BILife

13-month

persistency

(latest available)

Lapse rate

AIA 94.1% NAAXA AP (HK) 86.0% NACathay 95.7% NAChina Life 93.8% NA

- -

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8Source: IRDA, Company data.

. .Korea Life 82.3% 2.5%Ping An 90.0% NA

Samsung Life 82.3% 2.5%

Sony Financials (12-month) 95.2% 4.8%T&D (12-month) 93.0% 7.0%


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New regula t ions have reduced the amount t ha t a

c om pany c an re t a in on sur render /lapsed po l ic ies

Surrender Prescribed norm for Prescribed norm for ICICI Max New Reliance Life SBI Life HDFC Kotak Birla Sunlife Bajaj Allianz

Ex.3: Revised surrender charge ceiling significantly lower than those existed before the guidelines came into effect

charges policies having

annualized premium of

upto Rs25000

policies having

annualized premium

>Rs25000

Prudential

Life

Insurance

York Life

Insurance

Insurance Insurance Standard

Life

Insurance

Mahindra Old

Mutual Life

insurance

Insurance Life

Insurance

Year 1 *Lower of 20% of APE/ FV

*Maximum of Rs3000

*Lower of 6% of APE/

FV

*

70% NIL-40% 100% 15%-20% 100% 20%-100% 40%-100% 50%


*Maximum of Rs2000


FV

*Maximum of Rs5000

70% 15%-40% 100% 10%-12% 50% 15%-80% 20%-50% 50%


*Maximum of Rs1500


FV

*

10% 10%-30% 100% 7.5%-9% 30%-50% 10%-70% 13%-25% 50%


*Maximum of Rs1000


FV

*Maximum of Rs2000

5% 5%-20% 20% 2%-5% 15% 4%-10% 5%-17.5% 20-40%

Year 5 onwards NIL NIL NIL NIL-10% NIL -10% NIL- 5% NIL NIL-5% NIL-13% NIL-26%



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Ex pens ing based on s t eady st a t e

Key cost elements for insurance companies

Commissions paid will vary depending on: (a) types of policies sold ULIP/traditional,

(b) single vs. regular premium, (d) distribution channel and the effectiveness of such channel

Other expenses Salaries

Training of agents Advertising

All cost are written-off under Indian accounting

Policyholders charges assumes scale, the excess cost therefore is funded by

policyholders

Insurance companies thus report losses in the initial years

Over time, cost ratios for companies will fall as the regular premium exceeds new


premium


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Cost c u t t ing is t he new m ant ra , insurers have

m ore rat iona l iza t ion room ahead

Ex.1: Cost ratios are reducing, but still significantly higher than LICand Asian peers

Ex.2: Asian companies have fairly low cost of operations, reflectingtheir maturity cycle and/or amortization of cost for some (2011E)

7.5%

7.9%

7.2%

7.8%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

31.6

41.7

39.0

31.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2.4%

4.6%

5.0%5.3%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

.

17.7 17.8

25.9

8.6

15.5

21.5

15.5

20.0

24.8

6.5

16.7 16.6

12.2

19.5

24.823.8

6.810.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

C ath ay C hi na Li fe Dai -i ch i (1 2-

month)

Korea L ife P ing An Samsung Life Sony Financials

(12-month)

T&D (12-month)

0.0

5.0

BajajAllianz HDFCStandardLife ICICIPrudentialLife KotakOldMutual MaxNewyorkLife RelianceLife SBILife

FY09 FY10 FY11

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11Source: IRDA, Company data


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Im ply ing h igher pro f i t s

Ex.1: Companies now likely to make profit/lower losses as they moderate growth, focus on cost cuts

5

3

11

3

8

2

10.0

.

Accumulated losses FY10 Profi t (Loss) in FY10 Profi t (Loss) in FY11

0-3

-10

-4-3

0

-3-1 -1

(10.0)

-

-20

-15

-27(30.0)

(20.0)

-35

(40.0)

Bajaj Allianz

Life

Birla Sunlife HDFC

Standard Life

ICICI

Prudential

Kotak Life Max New York

Life

Reliance Life

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 12Source: IRDA, Company data


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What dr ives insuranc e c om pany m arg ins ,

rof i t s / ro f i t a bi l i t ?

AMC fees/ Investment spread

Impacted by economic cycles, types of policies sold and investment philosophy AMC fees charged could vary between products

Persistency ratio - higher ratio, for higher profitability

Profits are realized gradually and it is important to retain customers over the term of the

Lapse ratio could range around 10-30% in the first two years Well-trained agency force helps in keeping the persistency ratio high

-

For new companies, the expense spread is negative as companies do not have scale Long-term expenses should move with inflation or company will need to revisit pricing

Mortalit s read - sco e for ositive s read

Currently, using outdated LIC (94-96) mortality tables, companies likely enjoying positivespread

IRDA rules require insurance companies to share profit on traditional products in the


rat o o 90:10 .e 90 or nsure an 10 or nsurer/s are o er. n t e case oproducts, 100% of profit is retained by shareholders of the insurance company.


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Regu lat ions c ont inued

Ex.1: Flexibility to recoup margins on account of lower surrender charges hampered by ceiling on reduction in gross

yields of policies surrendered/ lapsed in different years

Annualized Premiums Paid in (years)

Maximum reduction in yield (Difference

between Gross and Net Yield (% pa))5 4.00%

6 3.75%

7 3.50%

8 3.30%

9 3.15%

10 3.00%

11 and 12 2.75%

13 and 14 2.50%

an t erea ter .

Sum assured Entry age < 45 years Entry age > 45 years

Single premium 125% of premium 110% of premium

Ex.2: All unit-linked products (other than pension and annuity products) to have a mandatory mortality cover or a health cover

Regular premium

10 times Annualized premiums or

(0.5 * (70 - age) * Annualised premium)

whichever is higher with a floor at 105%

of total premiums paid

7 times Annualized premiums or

(0.25 * (70 - age) * Annualised premium)

whichever is higher with a floor at 105%

of total premiums paid

Health cover Entry age < 45 years Entry age > 45 years


Regular premium5 times annualized premiums or

Rs. 100,000 p.a whichever is higher with afloor at 105% of total premiums paid

5 times annualized premiums or

Rs. 75,000 p.a whichever is higher with afloor at 105% of total premiums paid

Source: IRDA, Company data.


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How t o va lue insurance c ompan ies?


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Appra isa l m et hod

Appraisal Value = New Business Value X Multiple + Embedded Value

m e e a ue = e wor + o ro on po c es n orce

New Business Achieved profit (NBAP) New Business Value (NBV) PV of profitsold on new policies sold

NBV / FYP = New Business Margin



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Appraisa l va lue= EV + st ruc t ura l va lue

Embedded Value

Ad usted net asset value = market value of Value of in-force business i.e olicies alread sold =shareholders assets market value of

shareholders liabilities

Present value (PV) of transfers to shareholders expense

overrun adjustments solvency margin adjustment

PV of transfer to shareholders = PV ofany amounts projected to be availablefor distribution to shareholders (10% of

surplus in case of participating policies-

Expense overrunadjustment = Excess of

projected actualexpenses over long term Solvency margin adjustment

participating business. IN case of unit

linked business, shareholders earn fees

unit costs

PV of transfer to shareholders from one years new business X Capitalisation factor

tructura va ue

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 18Source: Watson, Wyatt Insurance Consulting Private Ltd , Goldman Sachs Research.

the profitability of the new businessdone over the past one year. This is

post cost of capital

multiple reflecting how stable thefranchise is and how fast it is expected

to grow


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New Bus iness Marg in - c a lcu lat ion

No. of Premium per Premiums The margin companies earn willde end on

0 1000 100 100,000 -200

1 950 100 95,000 -1002 900 100 90,000 0

3 800 100 80,000 200

4 750 100 75,000 700

1. Persistency

2. Tenure of policy assumed

3. Tax rate assumed5 700 100 70,000 2,000

6 650 100 65,000 3,000

7 600 100 60,000 4,000

8 550 100 55,000 6,0009 500 100 50,000 8,500

4. Opex assumption

5. Capital required

6. Discount rate assumed10 475 100 47,500 10,000

Discount rate 13.5%

NPV of Profits 12,101

NPV of profits/1st year Premium 12.1%

7. Returns assumed onequity/debt

Companies do not disclose theabove info except for the taxrate.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 19Source: Goldman Sachs Research.


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Margins dow n on new regula t ions

Ex.1: Margin of Indian companies has been falling

ICICI Pru Life 19.2 18.9 19.0 19.0 18.7 16.1 17.9

Bajaj Allianz 20.1 18.6 18.4 - 18.5 11.9 16.6

Max India 21.8 21.0 20.0 - - - 19.5Reliance Life - 20.9 19.1 17.9 18.0 - 16.7HDFC Life - - 25.8 28.3 - 10.1 18.8

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20Source: Company data


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Em bedded Value c a lc u la t ion

Calculation of EV (Rs mn) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E

Embedded Value

Opening EV 6,700 13,160 22,840 27,230 32,160

NW 2,060 3,620 7,670 8,800 12,320

VIF 4,640 9,540 15,170 18,430 19,840

Unwinding of Discount 1,020 1,900 2,610 3,360 3,268

% 14.4 11.4 12.3 12.0New business premium income (APE) 7,690 13,080 15,952 16,676 18,036 19,537

. . . . .

Value of New Business 2,670 3,120 2,670 2,350 2,344

% of Premium income 20.4 19.6 16.0 13.0 12.0

Other adjustments (230) (2,840) (2,800) (780) 0

Operating Variance 220 90 1,220 790

Maintenance Expenses Over runs (350) (3,920) (3,770) (2,550)

t er a ustments 980

Market value movement 440 (560)

New Capital Infusion 3,000 7,500 1,910 0 0Closing EV 13,160 22,840 27,230 32,160 37,772

YoY change (%) 100 42 16 15 15Note: This is a generic illustration and not representative of any company.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 21Source: Company data, GS estimates


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Despi te shor t -t erm c oncerns, Ind ian com panies li k e ly

t o t rade at a p remium, given long-t e rm grow t h po ten t ia l

Valuation comparison Vs. regional peers

Asian Life Insurers

Multiple on

NBV (X)

Implied

value to EV

(X)

Implied

value to

NBV (X)China Life 19.4 2.2 35.2

Ping An 21.6 2.9 32.8

Samsung Life 1.2 27.8

Korea Life 0.9 19.0

Dai-ichi 0.5 14.0

Sony Financials 0.8 15.0

T&D 0.5 16.7

Indian Life Insurers

Bajaj Allianz Life 14.0 1.6 39.3HDFC Standard Life 14.0 2.1 26.7

ICICI Prudential Life 14.0 1.7 34.5

Kotak Life 14.0 1.8 30.5

Max Newyork Life 14.0 1.9 30.5

SBI Life 14.0 2.1 27.1

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 23Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates


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K ey par t i c ipan ts


25/36

Indust ry in a c onso l idat ion/reassessm ent

hase marke t sha res f luc t uat i n

Ex.1: Industry led by private players has shrunk in FY11 Ex.2: Driven by decline in regular premium products

FY11Individual Single

PremiumIndividual Non

Sin le Premium Total rou TotalRetail APE - % yoy FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011

Total Premium

collection Rs mn

y-o-y

(%) Rs mn

y-o-y

(%) Rs mn

y-o-y

(%) Rs mn

y-o-y

(%)

7,798 -2.9 18,087 -41.3 8,739 54.5 34,624 -22.2454 7.1 15,955 -28.9 4,363 -35.1 20,771 -29.8

5,889 120.1 29,057 16.8 5,709 13.0 40,654 24.7

19,294 1489.2 34,920 -31.4 24,395 117.7 78,610 24.1

Birla Sunlife

Bajaj Allianz

HDFC Standard Life

ICICI Prudential

Bajaj Allianz 79.6 -32.8 -14.2 -39.5

Birla Sunlife 138.8 42.9 -6.5 -29.1

HDFC SL 78.6 3.5 10.2 17.8

ICICI Pru 68.1 -22.3 -1.4 -24.7

Max NY 70.4 21.8 -0.3 9.02,804 49.3 6,850 -25.9 2,878 30.0 12,531 -6.1

2,333 20.3 17,007 8.7 1,255 40.1 20,596 11.4

7,197 171.8 19,389 -37.9 3,763 -29.3 30,350 -22.6

19,363 245.2 28,514 -27.5 27,830 9.3 75,707 7.5

82,534 163.0 221,976 -22.1 89,303 31.7 393,813 2.6

276,202 4.1 245,835 4.3 342,411 64.8 864,447 21.9

Private players

LIC

Kotak Life

Max NY

Reliance Life

SBI Life

Kotak Life 87.8 24.3 -19.0 -23.2

SBI Life 106.8 12.2 37.2 -21.7

Private 85.1 1.6 7.8 -19.0

LIC 0.2 -20.6 31.3 8.7

Industry 29.8 -9.5 18.2 -5.4

Ranking based on retail

Ex.4: and ranking for key players

Market

share in

retail APE

Bajaj

Allianz

Reliance

Life

SBI Life HDFC

Standard

Life

ICICI

Prudential

Birla

Sunlife

Kotak

life

Max NY LIC

Ex.3: Changes in strategies has influenced market share (%)

358,735 20.9 467,811 -10.1 431,714 56.7 1,258,260 15.1Industry

ICICI Prudential 1 1 1 1 1 1SBI Life 9 3 3 4 2 2

HDFC Standard Life 3 4 4 6 5 3

Reliance Life 11 7 5 3 4 4

Ba a Allianz 2 2 2 2 3 5

FY2003 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.2 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.7 91.4FY2004 1.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 4.8 2.0 0.7 1.0 86.4

FY2005 2.9 0.2 0.7 2.3 8.7 3.3 1.2 1.4 74.7

FY2006 6.4 0.4 1.5 3.7 10.1 2.7 1.7 2.1 65.8

FY2007 7.8 1.7 3.1 3.1 9.9 1.7 1.3 1.9 64.5


Max NY 5 5 7 7 7 6

Birla Sunlife 4 6 6 5 6 7

Kotak-Old Mutual Life 8 10 9 8 9 9

. . . . . . . . .

FY2009 8.0 6.3 6.1 4.9 10.9 5.2 2.5 3.4 43.0

FY2010 5.7 5.7 7.3 4.6 9.3 4.1 1.7 2.9 47.7

FY2011 3.7 4.0 6.0 5.9 7.3 3.2 1.4 3.4 54.3

Source: IRDA.


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Companies c onsol idat ing ne t w ork

Agents Branches Employees

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

BajajAllianz 250,239 204,941 167,741 170,000 1,007 1,164 1,151 1,050 20,764 21,038 20,000 14,938HDFCStandardLife 144,000 207,626 198,879 148,713 572 595 568 514 15,411 14,506 14,397 12,094ICICI

Prudential

Life 291,000 299,879 241,830 176,076 1,956 2,104 1,921 1,400 16,317 28,900 20,000 13,000

KotakOldMutual 34,723 42,082 35,897 39,171 150 197 214 202 5,000 5,200 6,400 4,300MaxNewyorkLife 36,896 84,355 72,813 43,692 242 705 715 500 7,648 15,402 10,454 7,000Reliance Life 184 201 149 613 195 565 189 304 744 1 145 1 247 1 248 14 781 21 688 16 656 13 183

SBILife 40,643 68,993 65,532 72,085 200 433 494 494 3,738 5,910 5,985 5,985



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Append ix Insurance Marke t penet ra t ion

16.0 5.0

Ex.1: Life premium to GDP (%) Ex.2: Non Life premium to GDP (%)

13.8

10.0 10.09.610.0

12.0

14.0

4.5 4.5

3.9 3.7

3.13.0 3.0 3.0

2.93.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

.7.2

6.5

5.4 5.14.6

3.5

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

0.6

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0 0.0United

States

Switzerland South Korea Germany France Taiwan United

Kingdom

Austral ia South Afr ica Ind ia

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 28Source: IRDA, Company data, Swiss Re


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Techn ic a l ac c ount o f po l icy ho lder

Proforma Revenue account for a Life Insurance CompanyNon-

Participating participating Linked Total

Premiums earned - net of reinsurance

Income from investments (including profit/loss on sale of investments)

Other income (to be specified)

Commission

Operating expenses relating to insurance business

Provision for tax

Other provisions

Total (B)

Benefits paid (net)

Interim bonuses paid

Change in valuation of liability in respect of life policies / Reserves

Total (C)

Surplus / (Deficit) (D=A-B-C)

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 29Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.


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MCEV HDFC St andard Li fe

Change in MCEV 1H 2H FY2011

Opening MCEV 33.80 40.20 33.80Change in assumptions (0.20) (0.70) (0.90)

New business profit (before over-run) 3.90 1.50 5.40

Expense overruns (0.70) (0.70) (1.40)

Return on in-force 0.90 1.00 1.90

Other income and variances 0.60 (0.40) 0.20

EV operating profit 4.50 0.70 5.20

Investment variances and economic assumption 0.90 0.30 1.20

EV profit 5.40 1.00 6.40ap ta n ect on . . .

Closing MCEV 40.20 42.10 42.10

New business profit 3.90 1.50 5.40

New business EPI 13.70 14.90 28.60

. . .

New business margin post impact of acquision cost 23.60 5.56 14.20New business profit post impact of acquisition cost 3.23 0.83 4.06

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 30Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research


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Disc losure Appendix

u y ,


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RegAC

I, Tabassum Inamdar, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and

. , , , ,expressed in this report.

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can be

oun n e a es re evan pu s e researc .

Company-specific regulatory disclosuresThe following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies coveredby the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research.

Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this compendium can befound in the latest relevant published research.

.



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Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships

Goldman Sachs Investment Research lobal covera e universe

Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships

Global

Buy Hold Sell

32% 54% 14%

Buy Hold Sell

52% 41% 37%

, , , .

Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral.

Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See

'Ratings, Coverage groups and view s and related definitions' below.

Price target and rating history chart(s)

Compendium report: please see disclosures at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Disclosures applicable to the companies included in this

compendium can be found in the latest relevant published research.



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Indian Insurance Teach-In