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India Home Energy Storage Market Potential
Dr. Rahul WalawalkarPresident, India Energy Storage Alliance
Chair, Global Energy Storage Alliance
President & MD, Customized Energy Solutions (India)
CUSTOMIZED ENERGY SOLUTIONS
PROVIDING ENERGY MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS SINCE 1998
Our consulting services enables competitive suppliers, technology providers, marketers, utilities and customers to prosper through change, by turning knowledge into value
Over 175 Associates across 9 Regional offices in United States, Canada, India, Japan & Mexico. We support clients in all US 7 ISOs and RTO’s
500+10,000+ MWASSET MANAGEMENT
250+ MWSTORAGE ASSET
MANAGEMENT
1998ESTABLISHMENT
CLIENTS WORLDWIDE
2014 & 2016 11 TIMES HONOREE
PHILADELPHIA
28-05-2020 © India Energy Storage Alliance 2019 2
The Indian Grid
Coal
53.95%
Renewables
22.98%
Hydro
11.99%
Gas
6.99%
Nuclear
2.00%
Lignite
2.00%Diesel
0.10%
366 GW
328-05-2020 © India Energy Storage Alliance 2019
9.96%
13.02%
10.89%
9.30%
11.19%
9.04%
7.59%
4.72%
5.58%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GR
OW
TH P
ER
YEA
R F
UEL
WIS
E (
%)
YOY Growth of Various Fuel Capacity in Gen Mix – India – 2010-2020
Coal. Gas. Diesel. Nuclear. Hydro. Renewables. Total Gen Capacity
Expected India Net Load Curve 2022 (with 100 GW of Solar Generation)
Original projections by POSOCO for 20 GW solar target
428-05-2020 © India Energy Storage Alliance 2019
WHY ENERGY STORAGE?
Grid Variability Grid Inertia RE Curtailments
Ramping Rates
Strict Regulations
DSM Penalties
EV Dynamics T&D Upgrades
Solution
Energy
Storage
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The Evolving Policy Framework for Adoption of Energy Storage
2013: MOP and CEA taskforce
on Integration of Large
Scale renewables in
India
Dec 2014 IESA releases report on
the role of energy
storage for providing
ancillary services in
India
Oct 2015CERC issues Ancillary
Services Operations
Regulation (August
2015) and Roadmap to
operationalize Reserves
in the country
Mar 2019National Energy
Storage Mission and
National Mission for
Transformative
Mobility
2014
Creation of MNRE Standing Committee on Energy Storage to
develop Energy Storage Roadmap
May 2018MNRE National
Wind Solar Hybrid Policy
Jan 2017CERC Staff Paper on
ESS
Jan 2019CERC & CEA Regulations
inclusion of Storage
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TECHNOLOGY SPECTRUM: ENERGY V/S POWER DENSITY
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LITHIUM ION BATTERIES
Li-Ion
LEAD ACID BATTERIES
ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERY
NICKEL CADMIUM BATTERY
NICKEL METAL HYDRIDE BATTERY
FLOW BATTERY
HYDROGEN FUEL CELL
PUMPED HYDRO
COMPRESSED AIR
ENERGY STORAGE
FLYWWHEELS
HIGH POWER SUPERCAPACITORSSUPER CONDUCTING
MAGNET
HIGH ENERGY SUPERCAPACITORS
CRYOGENIC ENERGY STORAGE
SODIUM SULPHUR BATTERY
Lithium Ion Batteries – Cell Level Price Trend
15 18 2335
53
73
103
200
350790
650
460
370
280
225
180150
135
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Lith
ium
Io
n C
ell
Pric
($/k
Wh
)
An
nu
al P
rod
uc
tio
n C
ap
ac
ity (
GW
h)
Annual Production Capacity. (GWh) Lithium Ion Cell Price. ($/kWh)
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Cost Reduction is not the ONLY parameter to drive growth
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Ble
nd
ed C
ost
(IN
R/k
Wh
)
Blended Cost Trend | Rooftop Solar + Storage (50%) - 1 & 4 Hour | 2020 - 2027
1 Hour 4 Hour
Blended Cost Trend | Roof Top Solar + Storage | 2020 - 2027
*Assuming 50% Storage Penetration
India Market Outlook 2020-27
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EVOLVING ATTRACTIVENESS – INDIAN MARKET
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2019 2027
An
nu
al In
sta
lla
tio
n (
GW
h)
Year
Worst case Base Case Best Case
INDIA STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE MARKET 2019- 2027
Source: CES analysis
India Stationary Energy Storage Market, 2019 and 2027
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Worst Base Best
Cu
mu
lative
In
sta
lla
tio
n (
Gw
h)
Grid Scale BTM Railways
Cumulative Total Energy Storage Market Potential, India, 2019-2027
Modest market growth is projected in the worst case scenario when delayed projects in grid scale segment, impact of COVID-19 and improving grid reliability are projected to result in slow growth at CAGR of 2% between 2019-2027.
In base case scenario, the supportive policy framework, MNRE targets and ongoing project trends are considered to estimate a more robust market growth at CAGR 8% for 2019- 2027.
To achieve the best case scenario, more supportive policies, higher penetration rate of storage in grid scale projects, storage in providing ancillary services to grid, in distribution grid and in the presently unconventional Behind-the-meter applications such as for Diesel optimization, rooftop etc are to pick up for the market to achieve CAGR of 14% for 2019-2027.
Flooded LA
52%VRLA
44%
Li ion
4%
Storage Market Battery Technology Split,2019
Source: Relevant Govt. data and CES Analysis
CURRENT ROOFTOP SOLAR (RTS) PV SCENARIO
• Driven by an impressive y-o-y growth rate of 67%, cumulative rooftop solar
installations have reached a capacity of 5.7 GW till December 2019. In
2019 alone (from Jan 19 to December 19), rooftop solar installations were
close to 1.8 GW.
• The commercial, public & industrial sector is likely to maintain 80-90% of
the market share going forward. OPEX or RESCO model is being looked at
as an attractive proposition both for project developers and PE investors.
• Residential customers have thus far faced operational and financial
challenges in installing rooftop solar (RTS) system. Government's recent
announcement of Phase II of Grid Connected Rooftop Solar Program with
total financial assistance of INR 11,814 crore (US $ 1,687 Million) is likely to
alleviate some of these concerns and increase residential participation.
70%
18%
12%
Current Rooftop Solar Distribution
(5.7GW Cumulative) 2019, India
Industrial & Governmental
Commercial
Residential
MICROGRID INITIATIVE FOR CAMPUS & RURAL OPPORTUNITIES (MICRO)
15
Institution
Names
Units
added in
2019
Range of
Size of
microgrids
Battery Size
Range per
system(kW
h)
Rural
Electrification
Corporation (REC)
and Pvt Players
such as Onergy
Solar, Husk Power,
OMC Power, Tara
Oorja
~90 30 kWp 80
Panasonic and
BYPL 4 250Wp-3kWp 8
Global Himalayan
Expedition
~150 small
grids1-2 kW 0.5
MLinda 10 30 kW 80
Sources: CES Analysis, Primary Input*Figures are approximate*Defense microgrids are not included in this report
ENERGY STORAGE POTENTIAL IN MICROGRIDS
• Key locations of microgrids in 2019: Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, , Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra.
• Key microgrid Players: Global Himalayan Expedition, Gram Oorja, Tara Oorja, Husk Power, Onergy, Mlinda, Panasonic and BYPL
• Battery Suppliers: Exide, Amara Raja, Southern Batteries , Ecoult• Battery Types: VRLA and flooded lead acid batteries are mainly installed
in AC and DC Microgrids. In 2019, few companies in the smaller scale in remote areas are branching into Lithium ion batteries
Batteries for Microgrids accounted for just 8MWh in 2019.
India Microgrid Projects and Companies, 2019
99%
1%
BATTERY CHEMISTRY SPLIT IN MICROGRID
MARKET, INDIA, 2019
Lead acid Lithium ion
Continued use of Lead acid batteries: Lack of funding and infrastructure support are the main reasons why lead acid batteries are still the preferred option.
Global Experience of Home Energy Storage Systems
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ESS Ecosystem Map
IPPs/Project Developers PCS Suppliers/ SI
Compressed Air Sodium Flywheel
Lead Acid BatteriesLithium Ion Batteries
Flow Batteries
Metal Air Thermal Energy Storage Chemical (Hydrogen) Storage Pumped Hydro Storage
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Source: Tesla
Many options are available for consumers
Typical configuration of Home Energy Storage System with PV
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Modern Smart Home Configuration
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Source: Sonnen
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Closing remarks
• PV growth and improvements in energy storage technologies are expected to drive to growth of the home energy storage systems around the globe
• In India the behind the meter market will be driven by C&I segment, but also rooftop solar + ESS can penetrate residential market beyond 2023 with shift away from net metering regulations.
• Safety and certifications are a critical factor that needs to be considered
• Growth of EVs and introduction of bidirectional – chargers can also provide mobile home storage option
• There is lots of opportunity for innovation and localization considering domestic requirements
• Policy support for home systems also needs to evolve, particularly introduction of demand response programs
28-05-2020 © India Energy Storage Alliance 2019 24
Visit us:www.indiaesa.info
www.ces-ltd.com
Presented By: Dr Rahul Walawalkar
Designation: President IESA & MD CES
Mail: [email protected]
28-05-2020 © India Energy Storage Alliance 2019 25
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